As we come down the final stretch of the NHL season, both the Eastern and Western Conferences feature playoff races that will come down to the final games. For most teams that are either set or virtually locked into postseason position, the remaining handful of games will determine their first-round opponents.
Aside from rooting for their hometown teams, most hockey fans are simply looking for series to go the full seven games in the first round. So which matchups should we be rooting for over the last few weeks of the schedule? Well, we can figure this out by the numbers.
Three statistical areas tell us a great deal about the overall strength of a team: Corsi for percentage, goals and scoring chances. If we look at the differentials of possible opponents, we can find the closest matchups by adding up the percentage difference between each team's even-strength Corsi for percentage, goals for percentage and scoring chance percentage (all stats as of March 20, and via Natural Stat Trick).
For example, if Team A has a 52.03 Corsi for percentage and Team B has 51.00, the differential would be 1.03, advantage Team A. The lower the overall number, the closer the matchup.
Let's have a look at our results for the three best possible matchups in each conference.
Eastern Conference
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins
Playoff matchup index: 0.08 (advantage Toronto)
Key matchup: Toronto's offensive firepower vs. Boston's shutdown defense
2018-19 series: 3-1, Boston
Avert your eyes, Maple Leafs fans.
If the season ended today, Toronto and Boston would do battle again in the first round. The past two times these teams matched up, the B's came out on top in seven games. Boston's last-minute Game 7 comeback in 2013 marked one of the wildest endings to a series in playoff history. Round 3, anyone?
This time around, the two teams couldn't be much closer in their percentages, but how they have gotten there is quite different. The Leafs have the third best even-strength goals for percentage in the NHL, at 54.95, outscoring opponents 183 to 150. But only the lowly Ottawa Senators have allowed more shot attempts than Toronto.
Boston, on the other hand, has a very close goals for percentage of 53.75, but has produced and given up far fewer goals with a 129-111 differential. They have given up the third fewest shot attempts.
This pair would make for a classic offense vs. defense battle. Not to mention that Auston Matthews vs. Patrice Bergeron alone would be worth the price of admission.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
Playoff matchup index: 1.67 (advantage Tampa Bay)
Key matchup: Tampa Bay's top-six talent vs. Montreal's balanced offensive attack
2018-19 series: 3-0, Tampa Bay
You wouldn't expect a team that is producing standings points in nearly 80 percent of its games to have such a close opponent, but the Habs are better than the Lightning at controlling the puck. They best Tampa Bay in both Corsi for percentage and scoring chance percentage.
However, the Lightning's No. 1 rank in even-strength goal differential by a wide margin (among many other things) would make them the favorite against the Canadiens, who are battling tooth and nail with the Columbus Blue Jackets for the final wild-card position.
Aside from our key numbers, Tampa Bay ranking No. 1 on the power play compared to Montreal's 31st ranking would be a massive advantage for Jon Cooper's club.
The on-ice intrigue from a potential Lightning-Canadiens series comes in the fact that Tampa Bay has three 30-goal scorers and Montreal's top scorer has fewer total points than top Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov has assists. But, there are 11 Montreal players with double-digit goals and zero players with 500-plus minutes who are below a 50.0 in Corsi for percentage, so depth is a strength for the Habs. Add Carey Price -- who has a .926 save percentage since Jan. 1 -- to the mix, and you might have a stunningly good series on your hands if Montreal can make it.
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Playoff matchup index: 3.09 (advantage Pittsburgh)
Key matchup: Alex Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby
2018-19 series: 3-1, Pittsburgh
Yes, these two again.
If the defending Stanley Cup champions slip behind the New York Islanders and the Penguins hold their position in third place in the Metropolitan Division, we will get another iteration of Ovechkin vs. Crosby. In the past, these battles have always been a lock for entertainment value. The Penguins and Capitals have matched up four times in the playoffs during Ovi and Sid's careers, and all of them have gone six or seven games.
If they face off this time around, it has the potential to be one of the more exciting matchups between the Pens and Caps, because both teams are more flawed than they have been in the past. Neither team has a Corsi for percentage above 50 percent, yet they rank third (Pittsburgh) and fifth (Washington) in goals coming on high-danger scoring chances. That gives us the indication of a high-tempo series with all sorts of action in front of the net.
Plus both teams' goaltending situations have been shaky at times and each club has a top 10 power-play unit. We might be looking at a bunch of 5-4 games if the Penguins and Capitals get another swing at it.
Western Conference
San Jose Sharks vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Playoff matchup index: 0.32 (advantage Vegas)
Key matchup: The battle for puck possession
2018-19 series: 2-1, Vegas
Vegas hasn't put together as dominant of a season in the standings as they did in their inaugural campaign, but the Golden Knights are just as strong by the underlying numbers. A recent 9-1-0 stretch has pushed them up to fourth in Corsi for percentage and No. 1 in scoring chance percentage.
While they lack the star power of the Sharks, Vegas' puck-moving defensemen Shea Theodore and Nate Schmidt, combined with the offseason additions of Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny, have helped the Golden Knights become masters at controlling play. But that skill would be put to the test if they take on San Jose, which ranks No. 1 in Corsi for percentage thanks to two of the best puck movers of the past decade in Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson.
Last season, the Sharks looked like they might be showing their age, but the improvement of Timo Meier, along with signing Evander Kane plus the acquisition of Karlsson and Gustav Nyquist in trades, has given San Jose a new look. The infusion of quality players in their primes gives the Sharks a better chance at handling a fairly young Vegas team.
All this said, San Jose's goaltending remains a serious issue. Martin Jones remains below .900 in save percentage. If the Golden Knights pepper him with shots, as they have done to goalies all season, the Sharks may have a difficult time keeping up.
Calgary Flames vs. St. Louis Blues
Playoff matchup index: 4.77 (advantage Calgary)
Key matchup: Calgary's skill vs. St. Louis' net protection
2018-19 series: 2-1, St. Louis
After years of being a fringe playoff team or out of the postseason entirely, Calgary has taken the next step this season. At the center of their improvement is a young and extremely skilled set of forwards in Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk. Three of them have at least 30 goals, and Lindholm has 27 along with 50 assists. The oldest of the group is Gaudreau, at 25.
The Blues are on the opposite side of the spectrum. Their top six scorers are all 27 or older. St. Louis's turnaround after a rough start to the season has come in part because of excellent goaltending from Jordan Binnington, but he hasn't been alone. Behind blueliners Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo, along with two-way center Ryan O'Reilly's shutdown play, the Blues have allowed the second fewest high-danger chances in the NHL.
It would be fascinating to see the Flames attempt to find ways to create space for their scorers while the Blues aim to smother them for seven games.
Nashville Predators vs. Minnesota Wild
Playoff matchup index: 5.18 (advantage Nashville)
Key matchup: New faces vs. strong defensive play
2018-19 series: 3-0, Nashville
The Wild are sputtering, and the final wild-card spot is in jeopardy as they march into the last eight games of the season. Bruce Boudreau's club has historically been a first-round out and would not be favored against any team, but they have been good on the defensive side, allowing the fewest scoring chances and fewest high-danger shot attempts in the NHL.
That might give them a fighting chance against a seemingly much stronger team in Nashville. The Preds have an improved offensive team in theory since acquiring Mikael Granlund and Wayne Simmonds at the trade deadline, but they remain only 11th in even-strength goals scored overall. In eight games, Granlund has just four points and Simmonds only has two.
These two teams recently played a home-and-home and the Preds won both closely contested games in the shootout.
If this series happens, Nashville would have the advantage in overall talent and goaltending with the sixth best even-strength save percentage, but the Wild have flashed some new life since acquiring Ryan Donato and Kevin Fiala.