Every season, there are teams that get things turned around after a rough start. On Nov. 8, 2017, the Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild were 12th and 13th, respectively, in the Western Conference, and the St. Louis Blues were 12-3-1. By the end of the season, the Ducks and Wild were in the postseason, and the Blues were golfing. On that same day, Boston was a mediocre 6-5-1 and ended up finishing 50-20-12.
Many teams at the bottom, however, did not have those types of turnarounds. Clubs like Arizona, Edmonton, Montreal and Buffalo started slow and never recovered.
Which teams will kick things into gear soon? What factors will determine whether this year's bottom-feeders stay down or rise up? Let's have a look at each team that is currently at or under one standings point per game, and how they can get back in the race.
Western Conference
Anaheim Ducks (17 points in 17 games)
Key stat: 10 goals between Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Adam Henrique and Andrew Cogliano
How they can get back in the race: Get much more production from veterans
The only reason the Ducks aren't in the basement is that their two goalies, John Gibson and Ryan Miller, have combined for an outstanding .939 even-strength save percentage. But that's unlikely to hold up for an entire season, considering the league's best mark was .932 in 2017-18. And even with terrific goaltending, Anaheim has still been outscored by seven goals.
If they'd just run into some bad puck luck, it might be easy to believe Anaheim's top lines were set for a bounceback, but they're middle of the pack in 5-on-5 shooting percentage and have been outshot by more than any other team in the NHL.
The Ducks could stand to add a scoring winger as soon as possible, but the reality is that they will sink or swim based on whether top players can recapture some of their past excellence.
Vegas Golden Knights (13 points in 15 games)
Key stat: 29th in even-strength save percentage
How they can get back in the race: Marc-Andre Fleury must find his 2017-18 form.
Because the Golden Knights' inaugural season was so improbable, you might have been able to predict that they would come back to the pack. However, a closer look reveals that they have been a more dominant team than last season in some regards, but things haven't yet gone their way, especially in goal.
At even strength, Vegas has outshot opponents 506-375, which is good for the second-best shots for percentage in the NHL. They are also credited with the second-highest-scoring chance share by Natural Stat Trick and rank third in high-danger shots.
In goal, Fleury was good for 20.8 goals saved above average last season (per Hockey Reference) in just 46 games. This season, he's sitting at minus-2.5 GSAA, with a .901 save percentage. If the former Penguin turns things around, the Golden Knights could quickly become a legit Cup contender.
Los Angeles Kings (11 points in 14 games)
Key stat: Last in even-strength goals for percentage
How they can get back in the race: Start thinking about the future.
The Kings have six players over the age of 30 who are making $5 million or more through at least 2021. They are in the disastrous position of having post-prime stars who make so much money that Los Angeles can't afford quality veteran role players, and they do not have anyone in the minors ready to make the jump, either. Trading draft picks for win-now deadline moves year after year has stripped L.A.'s prospect system.
It would take an incredible jolt from the firing of head coach John Stevens in order to get the Kings back in the race this season. With Jonathan Quick injured, the odds are heavily stacked against a hot run to the top of the Pacific. The only way up might be to restart the process.
The better long-term play for the Kings could be to recognize their need to clear cap space and get younger. It isn't easy to pull a quick turnaround with stars Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty getting into their late primes (and signed for such high-cap hits), but there does not appear to be a better option than moving on from other veteran players wherever they can and hoping to win the lottery.
Teams on the cusp
Chicago Blackhawks: Did the Blackhawks' management fire Joel Quenneville because they know the team simply isn't deep enough to compete, or to spark a hot streak that will put them back in contention? The latter appears to be unlikely considering Chicago is mediocre in shot metrics and goal scoring at even strength, and at the bottom in goaltending.
St. Louis Blues: It says something about the Central that the Blues sit at one standings point per game, but are dead last in the division. They have the talent to compete, yet the sum of the parts is not matching up to the whole. With the second-worst scoring chance differential per Natural Stat Trick and poor goaltending, a turnaround doesn't seem likely. But based on past histories of their top players, the Blues might be the type of team to kick into gear soon.
Arizona Coyotes: Things appear to be trending in the right direction for the Coyotes. They are ninth in Corsi for percentage and fifth in even-strength save percentage, but scraping together enough scoring to hang around in the playoff race will be a challenge.
Eastern Conference
Detroit Red Wings (12 points in 15 games)
Key stat: Wings have been outshot 61 to 102 with Trevor Daley on ice
How they can get back in the race: Hand over the keys to young players.
It might be unfair to focus solely on Daley, but the Red Wings are still using him as a top-four defenseman. With respect to his long and successful career, the 35-year-old is no longer suited to match up with opponents' top players. In a loss to Edmonton, Daley matched up with Connor McDavid for 13:46, and the Wings got four shot attempts to the Oilers' 16 during that stretch.
While Daley is on a long list of Red Wings whose no-trade clauses make it difficult to move them, Detroit has a number of up-and-coming players who could flourish as they get more experience. Anthony Mantha and Dylan Larkin lead the team in Corsi for percentage, and 20-year-old defenseman Dennis Cholowski is one of the few Wings who has been on ice for more scoring chances for his team than against (as tracked by Natural Stat Trick).
With a number of no-move and no-trade clauses for veterans making moves difficult, the Wings' best option might simply be to give players like Tyler Bertuzzi (15:21 ice time per game), Michael Rasmussen (13:27) and Filip Hronek (currently in the AHL) a chance to adapt on the fly rather than watching veterans struggle.
Florida Panthers (9 points in 11 games)
Key stat: 31st in penalty kill
How they can get back in the race: Get Roberto rolling.
This one seems pretty simple for a team that is dead last in their division, but Florida's inability to kill penalties is crushing their chances to win. They are killing off just 68.4 percent, giving up 12 power-play goals in 11 games and scoring zero shorthanded goals to boot.
A close look at the Panthers at even strength reveals they should be much closer to a .500 team than the worst club in the Atlantic Division. They are controlling play, sitting seventh in the NHL in Corsi for percentage, and have knotted opponents 21-21 in 5-on-5 goals. The Cats are 16th in even-strength goals scored per 60 minutes. And they have performed admirably on the power play, at 20.0 percent (16th).
The penalty-killing improvement may start between the pipes. While Roberto Luongo was away, neither Michael Hutchinson nor James Reimer was up to the task. Neither topped a .900 save percentage. If Luongo stays healthy, keep an eye on Florida as a team to improve quickly.
Carolina Hurricanes (14 points in 15 games)
Key stat: No. 1 in the NHL in shots per 60; 21st in goals per 60
How they can get back in the race: Acquire a finisher ASAP.
The decision to trade Jeff Skinner may work out in the long run, but this season, the puck-dominating Canes desperately miss their former point-producing winger. Carolina has a roster built on players who can control the shot counter like top defenseman Dougie Hamilton, who was a league leader in Corsi for percentage with Calgary last season and leads all defensemen again this season. Forwards Jordan Staal and Justin Williams are taking double their opponents' shots when on ice, but the Canes do not have a goal scorer who can take advantage of the opportunities.
And if you think Carolina is just hurling shots from the outside, that's hardly the case. They lead the NHL in high-danger shot attempts. But nobody is putting the puck home at even strength or on the power play, where the Canes rank 29th. They should be keeping an eye on other struggling teams like Ottawa and Philadelphia that could sell off upcoming free agents Mark Stone and Wayne Simmonds if they begin to slide out of the race.
Of course, goaltending isn't helping their cause much either, as Petr Mrazek (.880 save percentage), Curtis McElhinney (.884) and Scott Darling (.893) have carried on the long-held tradition of struggling mightily in net in Carolina.
New Jersey Devils (13 points in 13 games)
Key stat: Ninth in even-strength goals for percentage
How they can get back in the race: Remain calm.
The only thing that points to the Devils being a bad team is their record. New Jersey has a solid shots for percentage (15th), they are outscoring opponents at even strength 31-26, producing on the power play at the seventh-best rate in the league, killing penalties effectively (13th) and stopping pucks at the ninth-best clip in the league at even strength. New Jersey has the No. 1 differential in high-danger shots, and their goal differential is better than Columbus'. And yet, the Blue Jackets are third in the Metropolitan Division, while the Devils are last.
There is no reason to panic when the team's underlying results hint at a surge.
The issue they may need to address is goalie Cory Schneider, who was pulled in a 7-3 loss to the Senators and hasn't posted an above-average save percentage since 2015-16. Keith Kinkaid (.918 save percentage) should stick as the team's starter.
Teams on the cusp
Ottawa Senators: The team most projected to be in last place is hanging around, but off-ice distractions and the fact that they have been outscored at even strength and are among the league's worst at controlling play (29th in Corsi for percentage) points to an upcoming slide.
Philadelphia Flyers: Philly's best offensive players are scoring as per usual, but their goaltending has been catastrophic (31st in the NHL in save percentage). There doesn't appear to be an easy fix, barring another trade at the position or the premature promotion of prospect Carter Hart.
New York Rangers: The Blueshirts are severely lacking in offensive threats. They sit 22nd in even-strength goals and don't appear to have a solution. However, Henrik Lundqvist is defying the age curve with a .922 save percentage. History tells us he's capable of carrying a mediocre team. Will the front office continue the rebuild or swing for the fences with another trade acquisition to give Hank another Stanley Cup shot?