Beyond the first round, there are very few playoff series where one team is heavily favored.
This year, that is especially true. All four of the upcoming conference semifinal series fall into "too close to call" territory. The edge in each series will be determined by things such as matchups, goaltending and which big-time players step up when called upon.
With that said, let's have a look at some of the numbers that tell us how each series could play out.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks
Key stat: Martin Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury combined to stop 255 of 262 shots in the first round.
The postseason's two most well-rested teams will match up in Round 2 in large part because of the excellence of their goaltenders in the first round. Jones is building a large sample of playoff excellence. In 34 starts, he has an outstanding .931 save percentage with 25 quality starts. Fleury is better known for playoff meltdowns, but he might be shifting back to the form of his early career. Going back to 2013-14, the former Penguin has a .926 save percentage in 39 playoff starts.
Vegas
The Golden Knights have become the darlings of the NHL in their inaugural season after winning the Pacific Division and sweeping the Los Angeles Kings. The question all season has been: Is this for real or a product of hockey's randomness?
By regular-season metrics, Vegas appears to be a solid team, but not as strong as the best teams in the West. The Golden Knights ranked seventh in the West in both Corsi for percentage and goals for percentage. While they have been lauded for their top-to-bottom lineup built through the expansion draft, some of the scorers who guided them to the playoffs have been trending down recently.
Since March 1, Vegas has averaged 2.07 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. That's well below its season average of 2.65 (sixth in the NHL) and lagging far behind San Jose (2.88), Nashville (2.70) and Winnipeg (2.66).
No Knight scored more than one goal in Round 1, and they produced the fewest (six) even-strength goals of any team that advanced. Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick certainly had something to do with that, but there should be some concern that players such as William Karlsson and Erik Haula, who had incredibly high regular-season shooting percentages, could be coming back to earth.
However, the Golden Knights' forwards dominated the puck throughout the opening series. Veteran scorer James Neal was on the ice for 13 individual scoring chances in four games, which is a good pathway to success.
San Jose
The Sharks annihilated the Ducks in the first round, outscoring Anaheim 10-2 at even strength. Even with star center Joe Thornton on the shelf, San Jose's offensive attack flourished with four different players scoring multiple goals.
The key for San Jose is special teams. Against the Ducks, the Sharks scored six power-play goals on 20 opportunities in four games. While San Jose has improved its production since acquiring power winger Evander Kane at the deadline, the Sharks still ranked 15th in the NHL in even-strength goals scored, so continued success on the power play is critical.
Controlling play from the blue line is imperative for the Sharks against a deep Vegas attack. Top defenseman Brent Burns had a relatively quiet opening series with only two points, but he put 15 shots on goal, second on the team behind Kane. If he catches fire, the Golden Knights could be in trouble. As has been the case for many years, Marc-Edouard Vlasic's ability to match up with top competition in tough situations will be important. He shared the ice with Ducks star Ryan Getzlaf for 39 minutes in Round 1, and the Sharks allowed just one goal in that time.
The pick: Sharks in seven
Nashville Predators vs. Winnipeg Jets
Key stat: The Predators and Jets ranked Nos. 2 and 3 in even-strength goals for percentage.
No matter how the conference finals and Stanley Cup Final play out, the Predators and Jets have the best matchup on paper of any two teams in the NHL. They are both highly skilled, deep teams with great goaltending. Neither deserves to go home after two rounds. Nothing better illustrates each club's strength than the fact that each outscored opponents at a higher rate than every other team outside of the Lightning.
Nashville
Following a trip to the Cup Final last year, Nashville made improvements to its lineup, especially at center. GM David Poile signed two-time Cup winner Nick Bonino in free agency and then swung an early-season trade for Kyle Turris. Operating the second line with budding star Kevin Fiala and veteran Craig Smith, Turris registered only one point in Round 1, but he was on the ice for more scoring chances (according to Natural Stat Trick) than any other Predators forward. Bonino produced five points in the six-game series, and the Preds outscored the Colorado Avalanche 7-0 when he was on the ice.
The two proven centers allow the Preds to mix and match more effectively rather than forcing their highly skilled first line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson to completely carry the load. For example, Bonino played 40 minutes against Avs superstar Nathan MacKinnon, while Johansen saw him for only 29 minutes and Turris 12 minutes.
Nashville also sports the league's best defensive corps. Its top two pairs would easily be the No. 1 on any other team.
Winnipeg
The Jets absolutely steamrolled Minnesota in the first round. They registered a higher Corsi for percentage (58.9) than any other team in the postseason and were 4.1 percent higher than the next best club (Nashville). Winnipeg also created more scoring chances and more high-danger shots at even strength than any other Western Conference team in Round 1.
Winnipeg made a trade deadline addition that helped bolster its forward group by acquiring Paul Stastny from St. Louis. That move pushed Bryan Little to the third line, and provided balance within the second line. The solid all-around center is flanked by two dynamic young players in Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine, who combined for 130 points this season. Since Stastny joined the Jets, his line has outscored opponents 20-9 in just 255 minutes together.
Similar to Nashville's defense, the Jets could argue they have two No. 1 scoring lines. Mark Scheifele was on the ice for a 19-9 advantage in high-danger shots and out-chanced the Wild 50-32 in the opening round. It doesn't hurt to be flanked by Blake Wheeler, who led the team with 91 points this season, and young goal scorer Kyle Connor.
We know Nashville's defense can get the job done in the playoffs. Winnipeg's blueliners are in uncharted territory. Top defenseman Jacob Trouba led all skaters with a 61.0 Corsi for percentage in Round 1.
In net, Connor Hellebuyck had one rough start in the Twin Cities but otherwise was terrific, with two shutouts and a .924 save percentage.
The pick: Nashville in seven
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Key stat: The two teams combined for 14 power-play goals in Round 1.
Here we go again with the Penguins and Capitals. At even strength, there appears to be an advantage for Pittsburgh, but this series could be decided by which team's power play shines. In the regular season, the Pens ranked No. 1 in the NHL in power-play percentage (26.2), with Washington close behind at seventh (22.5). In the opening round, the Caps were the NHL's best with the man advantage, scoring nine goals in six games (33.3 percent).
Washington
After going down 2-0 to the Columbus Blue Jackets, Barry Trotz's team came roaring back to win four in a row, largely on the back of great special teams. In fact, the Capitals were outscored at even strength in the series. But Alex Ovechkin blasted an NHL playoff-high 33 shots on goal, scored five times and played 24:00 per game, while John Carlson racked up eight power-play assists.
Carlson led a solid performance by the Caps' defensive unit, which has been questioned throughout the season. With No. 74 on the ice, Washington produced 21 high-danger chances to the Blue Jackets' eight in 113 minutes. Dmitry Orlov was also solid, registering a 52.7 Corsi for percentage in the first round.
The Capitals will also enter the series with goaltending questions. Trotz chose to ride backup Philipp Grubauer into the start of the series, but quickly pivoted back to franchise goalie Braden Holtby after Game 1. While Holtby had a career-worst .907 regular-season save percentage, he has been an incredible postseason goalie for the past five years. He carried on the tradition of raising his game for the playoffs, stopping 137 of 147 shots after taking back the job.
Pittsburgh
While Philadelphia's defense and goaltending certainly played a role in Pittsburgh's success, the Penguins' offensive attack was unstoppable in the opening round -- as it has been for the entire second half of the season. Pittsburgh ranks No. 1 in goals per 60 minutes at even strength since Jan. 1.
Slow starts for stars Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang are now a distant memory, as Crosby was on the ice for 14 Penguin goals, enough to lead all skaters in Round 1. Pittsburgh outscored Philly 11-4 and held a 60-50 shot advantage with Letang on the ice. With Letang healthy, the Pens have a better blue line than they did a year ago when Crosby & Co. raised the Cup. Plus, Pittsburgh added veteran center Derick Brassard to fill the gap left by Nick Bonino's exit in free agency.
When the Penguins' superstars are rolling, they are nearly impossible to beat, but one of the heroes of the past two years, goalie Matt Murray, has stumbled at times this season. Following back-to-back Stanley Cup runs -- during which he posted .923 and .937 postseason save percentages -- Murray's save percentage fell to .907 in his second full season as Pittsburgh's starter. In Round 1, he pitched two shutouts against the Flyers but allowed 13 goals in the other six games. If Murray isn't at his best, the highly skilled Capitals will have a huge advantage.
The pick: Pittsburgh in seven
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins
Key stat: Patrice Bergeron's 113-61 shot attempt differential in Round 1
In order to reach the conference finals, Tampa Bay's super-skilled top line will have to outplay the most difficult matchup line in the NHL. The Bruins defeated a stacked Toronto forward group by riding the backs of their three stars, Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. The toughest challenge ahead for Lightning head coach Jon Cooper will be figuring out who to match up against them.
Tampa Bay
At the trade deadline, the Lightning loaded up by adding Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers. Cooper placed Miller on the top line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, who combined for 186 points this season and led the league's No. 1 scoring attack. In 136 regular-season minutes with Kucherov, Miller managed an impressive 56.4 Corsi for percentage. The line didn't blow away the New Jersey Devils in the first round, but Kucherov still came away with 10 points, six of which came at even strength.
Boston will likely match Bergeron against the Stamkos line, which could force the rest of Tampa Bay's lineup to win the series. The pressure will be on No. 2 center Brayden Point, who scored 66 points and was on the ice for a 63-44 goal-scoring advantage during the regular season. Point, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat may be in for a tough series if they are on the ice against veterans David Krejci and Rick Nash (although Nash hasn't been too impressive this postseason).
Where Tampa Bay can gain a significant advantage is on the back end. Victor Hedman is a back-to-back Norris Trophy finalist and one of the elite all-around defenders in the NHL; it wasn't long ago that McDonagh was the No. 1 D-man on a Rangers team that reached the Cup Final.
The Lightning will need young netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy to continue his stellar play. He finished Round 1 with a .941 save percentage.
Boston
If the Bruins were facing any old team, the dominance of their first line would still have been impressive, but Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak outplayed a Leafs club with one of the strongest top sixes in the league. Bergeron spent 64 minutes against either Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner, and came away with a 93-56 shot attempt advantage in those situations.
It wasn't just the Bruins' top line that led them to victory over Toronto. An influx of young talent has helped push Boston back into the realm of legitimate Cup contenders. Winger Jake DeBrusk, 21, scored two goals in the Bruins' Game 7 win, and forward Danton Heinen, 22, notched his first playoff goal. During the regular season, they added 32 goals while mostly slotting in on the second and third lines.
On defense, another young player has risen to stardom. Charlie McAvoy, with a little help from Zdeno Chara, is becoming a game-changing defender. In Round 1, he led all Bruins skaters in minutes and was on the ice for a 7-4 advantage in even-strength goals.
In net, Tuukka Rask is tough to project. It has been four years since he was a well-above-average goalie during the regular season, and he managed just a .899 save percentage against Toronto. His opponent won't get any easier in Round 2.