The goaltending position is always tough to project. Development never seems to be a straight line for goalies, but we've seen more and more high-quality prospects at the position in recent years. While the depth of talent available to NHL teams is a huge benefit, there aren't enough jobs for these players to go around at the NHL level.
That affords teams the luxury of giving their goalies all the time they need to develop. It's pretty rare to see a goalie make a big NHL impact at a relatively young age like what Matt Murray just did for the Pittsburgh Penguins or what Andrei Vasilevskiy is doing for the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, just as the NHL is getting younger at other positions, we may start to see more teams willing to go younger in net, as well. There's no question that goalies are coming into the league better prepared than they've ever been with the proliferation of full-time goalie coaches and goalie-specific development efforts.
For some of the goalies listed below, circumstance and contracts overseas give them somewhat uncertain NHL projections. That said, the future of the position looks very strong as these young netminders continue to emerge and thrive in their current spots. Here's a look at the top-10 goalie prospects right now.
1. Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL), Philadelphia Flyers (19 years old)
Put aside the fact that Hart just backstopped Canada to the gold medal at the World Junior Championships. It's important, but it's not why he's No. 1 on this list. This has more to do with his growth over the past two seasons. There's a steadiness about Hart that is hard to find in young goalies, and I'm not sure he had it last season. That calm demeanor in net is probably just as important as his technical skills, which are also excellent.
It can be hard to know for sure what a goalie's makeup is. One of the things I always like to ask a goalie's teammate is how the goaltender makes them feel about their chances. Usually you'll get the canned responses -- "He gives us a chance to win every night" -- but as the answer continues, you'll start hearing why that's true. At the World Juniors, the two words that popped up every single time a teammate would talk about Hart were "calm" and "confident." That rubs off on a team, and it certainly helped key Canada to victory.
It has also helped Hart put up some truly absurd numbers in the WHL this season. In a high-scoring league, Hart has a .958 save percentage in 21 appearances. The next closest goalie with 20 or more appearances has a .913 save percentage. A bout with mononucleosis kept him out of action for more than a month, but he came back stronger than ever. During his past 16 starts, he has only one start in which he allowed three goals. Plus, Hart has faced an average of 32 shots against per game this season.
One of the things that struck me during the World Junior Championships and in my viewing of him at the Canada-Russia series in the fall was that he is so sound positionally. He does not give opponents a lot of net and keeps things really simple between the pipes. Hart usually doesn't have to make the big save because of that, but he has the ability to make that save when necessary.
It's still early in his development, so a lot can happen either good or bad, but I think we're seeing some noticeable year-to-year progression for Hart. You can't take a much bigger step forward than he did this season, so it's interesting to see where he'll take things next.
2. Ilya Samsonov, Metallurg Magnitogorsk (KHL), Washington Capitals (20 years old)
According to a December report in The Washington Post, Capitals GM Brian MacLellan recently went to Russia to visit with Samsonov, whose KHL contract is set to expire in April. It seems possible that Samsonov will come to North America next year, which would be a good thing for him.
Right now, Samsonov is essentially his team's No. 2 goaltender, sharing starts with veteran and two-time Gagarin Cup winner Vasili Koshechkin, who was also named the league's best goaltender and playoff MVP last year. Samsonov is not necessarily a true backup to the 34-year-old veteran, as he's gotten into 24 games. When he does play, he tends to make a positive impact, but Koshechkin is likely going to get the most important games.
Over the past three seasons, Samsonov has appeared in 80 KHL regular-season and playoff games, posting a .927 save percentage. He's slightly below his career averages this year, but that's not a big cause for concern at this point. A remarkably quick goaltender, Samsonov is adept at making the big save. He has game-stealing qualities to him, which doesn't necessarily lend itself to perfect consistency, but when he's at his best, he's special. His playing time may be limited, but I think there's a lot of potential based on what I've seen from him during the past three years. Getting the chance to face North American pro competition, assuming they can convince him the AHL is an important next step in his development, would be a great measuring stick for him next year.
3. Thatcher Demko, Utica Comets (AHL), Vancouver Canucks (22 years old)
The AHL has been such a tremendous training ground for goaltenders. Connor Hellebuyck, Murray and Vasilveskiy are among the many goalies who saw some significant time in that league before making the jump. Demko is in the midst of a breakout season in the NHL's top farm league and was rewarded with an invite to the AHL All-Star Game coming up this weekend.
Demko has posted a .929 save percentage while facing the second-most shots of any goaltender in the league. That second pro season is a pretty big development year for any goaltender, but seeing how Demko has progressed this season should be particularly encouraging. He's right where he needs to be developmentally, getting a lot of starts and shots against. It shouldn't be much longer before he's ready to make the jump.
Demko has really good size and appears technically sound. He's especially good down low and quick across the crease. The biggest thing for him right now is to continue building confidence because the athletic tools are there to help him eventually become a No. 1.
4. Igor Shestyorkin, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL), New York Rangers (22 years old)
Playing for the KHL's top team certainly has its perks, but Shestyorkin has been a top goalie in his age group for years now. These last two years as a KHL starter has only confirmed that further, as he has posted a save percentage north of .930 since earning the net for SKA. He also has a shot at playing in the Olympics this year.
His numbers may be aided by the quality of the team in front of him, but good numbers seem to follow Shestyorkin wherever he goes. The Rangers are going to have to be patient as he remains under a KHL contract and won't be available for a little while. However, at his age, he still has a chance to be an impact prospect for the Rangers should he choose to come to North America.
5. Ilya Sorokin, CSKA Moscow (KHL), New York Islanders (22 years old)
You'd be hard-pressed to find a more accomplished goaltender by age 22 than Sorokin, who has played exceptionally well in the KHL over the last three seasons. He's even appeared in two World Championships for Russia and could play in the Olympics under the ambiguous "Olympic Athletes from Russia" banner. The only reason he's not higher on this list is that he is signed for the next three seasons in the KHL. That clouds his NHL future a fair amount.
In 35 starts this year, Sorokin has a .935 save percentage. Including this year, he is the owner of three of the four best seasons by a goaltender under 24 in the KHL by save percentage (via eliteprospects.com). You can never guarantee success in North America, but if the Isles were ever able to get him to come over, he probably provides a significant boost.
6. Jon Gillies, Stockton Heat (AHL), Calgary Flames (24 years old)
Stalled out briefly by an injury in his first pro season in 2015-16, it took Gillies a little extra time to find his top form as a pro. He had a fine season last year, but he's really come along this season. With a .920 save percentage through 26 appearances, Gillies has shown that he is still among the top goaltending prospects. With Mike Smith occupying the NHL net for at least another season, Gillies will have to stay patient, but he should still view himself as the heir apparent.
7. Ville Husso, San Antonio Rampage (AHL), St. Louis Blues (22 years old)
Husso has been on somewhat of a meteoric rise as a goaltending prospect since 2014 when the Blues snapped him up in the fourth round. He had great numbers in Finland, but those numbers keep translating in the AHL, as well. In just his second North American pro season, Husso has a .929 save percentage in 18 starts, which ties him with Demko for the best save percentage by a goalie under 24 in the AHL. It's going to be all about getting opportunities to play consistently and getting more starts, as he's proven his ability plenty over the last four years.
8. Kaapo Kahkonen, Lukko (Liiga), Minnesota Wild (21 years old)
Continuing a trend of top-end goalies found in the middle rounds of the draft, Kahkonen's last two seasons have been eye opening. He just keeps getting better. No goaltender has played more minutes in Liiga this season, and Kahkonen has a .932 save percentage, 1.92 goals-against average and five shutouts. It's one of the better seasons by a goalie in his age group in recent Liiga memory, based on the amount of games he has played.
9. Linus Soderstrom, HV71 (SHL), New York Islanders (21 years old)
It's been a bit of a tough year for Soderstrom. His numbers are down, and now he's dealing with an injury. He is expected to miss a few more weeks after undergoing surgery. Already under contract with the Islanders, he could be in North America as early as next season. Based on the body of work he's had, including a really strong showing last year with HV71 and two prior standout performances at the World Juniors, there's little doubt that Soderstrom belongs among the top goaltenders. There are just a few more variables with the injury and a lack of reps this season that give me pause on putting him ahead of the others listed.
10. Jake Oettinger, Boston University (NCAA), Dallas Stars (19 years old)
This has not been a great season for Oettinger, but it hasn't been a great season for Boston University as a whole. The Terriers are starting to turn things around a bit, and Oettinger's play is improving with them. He still has all of the physical tools to be a top-end goalie, but he has to get his confidence back. Oettinger was the youngest player in college hockey last season and didn't flinch, which gives me some faith he's going to bounce back. Given his age and the investment Dallas has made in him with a first-round pick, he's going to get every opportunity to reach his full potential. I still think he has a high upside.
Honorable mentions:
Michael DiPietro, Windsor Spitfires (OHL), Vancouver Canucks
Filip Gustavsson, Lulea (SHL), Pittsburgh Penguins
Cal Petersen, Ontario Reign (AHL), Los Angeles Kings
Garret Sparks, Toronto Marlies (AHL), Toronto Maple Leafs
Colton Point, Colgate University (NCAA), Dallas Stars