When the dust settled on the Vegas Golden Knights' expansion draft, general manager George McPhee had set his team up for a very bright future.
The NHL's newest franchise held three of the first 15 picks in the 2017 draft and 10 picks in the first two rounds between 2018 and 2020. McPhee also appeared to be in position to scoop up even more draft picks at the 2017-18 trade deadline, as a number of his expansion picks were upcoming free agents.
We assumed that the Golden Knights' first campaign would be in line with other expansion clubs that struggled out of the gate. By the deadline, it seemed, Vegas would be able to trade proven players to stack even more future assets.
Not so fast.
Vegas has flipped the script by winning 22 of its first 33 games. The Golden Knights sit in first place in the Pacific Division, rank third in the NHL in goals scored per game and beat the mighty Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday.
What does their hot start mean for the short- and long-term future of the Golden Knights? How might it reshape the trade deadline overall? Let's have a look.
Will McPhee's plan change with a chance to compete in Year 1?
Three of Vegas's top five scorers are unrestricted free agents following this season. Forwards James Neal, David Perron and Jonathan Marchessault, who will each hit the market in July, have combined for 34 goals and 45 assists.
If Vegas remains near the top of the Western Conference, McPhee will have to choose between sinking his club's playoff chances by trading top players at the deadline or sacrificing the future for a shot at continuing an incredibly improbable run.
Standing still should not be an option. The Golden Knights' current roster is not likely strong enough to win the Cup. They are a solid team but still rank 13th in Corsi for percentage and goals for percentage at even strength. Letting UFAs walk for no return to only gain a first-round out in the playoffs would not be worth the trade-off. Going all-in or selling is each a better option than letting it play out.
But in order to go all-in, some drastic moves would have to be made. Considering that the last six Cups have been raised by teams with top-10-type players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, Vegas will need to do a lot more than adding a few role players at the deadline to compete with the big boys.
The Golden Knights would need to chase after top upcoming free agents on bottom teams like Buffalo power forward Evander Kane or even the Sedin twins from Vancouver. Vegas also has the cap room to take on another rebuilding team's veteran contract, so it could go after players like Sabres center Ryan O'Reilly or Florida blueliner Keith Yandle. The Golden Knights could also make a huge run at two star defensemen who are UFAs in 2019, Ottawa's Erik Karlsson and Arizona's Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
If none of those franchise-changing moves are possible, the best option for McPhee might be to stay the long-term course and try to move his pending UFAs.
Prices change from year to year based on the market, but if Vegas makes Neal and Marchessault available, it could have a chance to pull in a first-round pick from a contending team. After all, Arizona snagged a first in the deal that sent center Martin Hanzal to Minnesota last season.
Vegas is already set up nicely with the three 2017 first-rounders and young players. Alex Tuch, for example, is 21 years old and has 15 points in 28 games. Defenseman Shea Theodore, 22, is a wizard with the puck. The team's No. 2 scorer, William Karlsson, is 24.
If the Golden Knights added two more first-round picks to the bundle of draft assets they already hold, McPhee's team would be more likely to land the superstar-level talent required to compete for the Cup. It would take three to five years to get there, but we have seen teams like Toronto and Winnipeg build through the draft over a number of years, and these are now two of the league's most dangerous teams.
Is regression coming?
Of course, if the Golden Knights fall apart between now and the trade deadline, McPhee's decision will be easy.
Based on the numbers from the first three months of the NHL season, it doesn't appear a collapse is coming. Vegas has a positive shot and goal differential for the season, and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been strong since returning from injury on Dec. 12.
The Golden Knights are creating a good number of scoring chances, ranking 12th in the NHL in high-danger shots (per Natural Stat Trick), and haven't been driven by special teams. In fact, it wouldn't be a surprise if their power play (21st) and penalty kill (23rd) got better over time.
One factor, however, might hint at an upcoming slide: the schedule.
Vegas wraps up December by playing the Capitals at home, Anaheim and Los Angeles on the road and Toronto at home. In January, eight of the Golden Knights' 12 games are against teams currently in line to make the playoffs.
An impressive run through that group could make it clear to McPhee that his team should morph into win-now mode. But if the Golden Knights hit the skids, the decision to move top UFAs will become easier.
Who will be surprising sellers?
The league's 30 other teams likely figured on bidding wars for Neal, Marchessault and Perron at the deadline. Instead, the crop of available players could come from teams that were expected to be in contention:
Montreal Canadiens: Forward Tomas Plekanec is the most notable upcoming free agent for the Canadiens. He won't get anywhere near the attention the Vegas scorers would on the market. However, Montreal could try to shift its long-term direction by trading a player under contract for several years, such as former top pick Alex Galchenyuk.
Ottawa Senators: Ottawa is in rough shape. It appears plausible that the Senators will lose Karlsson, who carried the team on his back to the Eastern Conference finals, either at the end of his contract after next season or by being forced to trade him. Only blueliner Johnny Oduya is a UFA after this season, while the contracts of key forwards Matt Duchene and Derick Brassard also come up after 2018-19. They could begin a full-fledged teardown sooner than later.
Edmonton Oilers: If Edmonton doesn't feel it can re-sign winger Patrick Maroon, a favorite linemate of Connor McDavid's, they could score a solid draft pick or prospect for his services at the deadline. Otherwise, the Oilers don't have much to offer unless someone is willing to take on Milan Lucic's long-term deal.
Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim has a shot at getting healthy and getting back into the race, but time is running out. The Ducks could begin a retooling process by moving upcoming UFAs Andrew Cogliano, Kevin Bieksa and Antoine Vermette to give players in the system some experience heading into next season. Even if Anaheim misses the postseason, it should bounce back in 2018-19, especially with the addition of center Adam Henrique.