The 2017-18 NHL season is fast approaching the quarter mark, and several teams who were perceived to be locks for the playoffs are currently outside the postseason picture, including Anaheim, Chicago, Edmonton, Minnesota and Montreal.
In each case, we'll identify one major cause for each of these team's struggles, make a recommendation for a new strategy, deployment, or acquisition that might address that primary concern, and assess the team's chances of climbing back into a playoff position.
Anaheim Ducks
The big issue: Injuries to top two centers
Preseason injuries hit the Ducks hard, especially down the middle and on the blue line. At various points of the season, they have been without Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler up front, and Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm on defense.
Because of these injuries, coach Randy Carlyle has been forced to stretch players into overly ambitious roles, with mixed results producing a 7-7-3 record. That has left the Ducks in the unfamiliar position of sixth place in the Pacific -- a division whose crown they previously held for five consecutive seasons.
While the blue line has gradually returned to health, the team will still be without its two critical centers. Carlyle has yet to find a solution to this problem, and is currently using journeymen Derek Grant on the top line with Rickard Rakell and Corey Perry, and Chris Wagner on the second with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg. While effective in the AHL, Grant and Wagner were previously used strictly in depth roles in NHL situations, and with disappointing results in terms of both scoring and shot-based metrics.
The Ducks should consider acquiring a center, but have limited cap space -- even with the relief provided by long-term injured reserve. They're going to have to get creative.
Outlook: Devastating injuries have downgraded Anaheim from a postseason lock to a 50/50 proposition.
Chicago Blackhawks
The big issue: Cap crunch... again.
The Blackhawks have made the playoffs every season since Joel Quenneville became the team's coach early in the 2008-09 season, winning the Stanley Cup on three occasions.
In the salary cap era, one of the consequences of prolonged success is the constant attrition of great players as it becomes impossible to keep everybody's rising cap hits under the ceiling. As a result, the Blackhawks have a record of 8-8-2 and have been outscored 47-38 since beating Pittsburgh and Columbus by a combined margin of 15-2 in the first two games.
The key to success is choosing the right players in whom to invest long term, and to get the best possible return on those who must depart. From that perspective, Chicago may not have made the best decisions on the blue line, by choosing to keep Brent Seabrook, and in acquiring Connor Murphy in exchange for Niklas Hjalmarsson.
Seabrook is a highly respected defender, but he carries an annual cap hit of $6.875 million, which ranks ninth among defensemen, and continues through the 2023-24 season, when he'll be 39 years old. From 2014-15 to the present, Chicago's share of all on-ice shot attempts has dropped from 52.5 to 49.7 percent when Seabrook is on the ice, for a relative Corsi percentage of minus-2.8 percent.
Adding Murphy and his annual cap hit of $3.85 million did not help the team's cap situation. That is too much cap space for someone who serves as a seventh defenseman, averaging 14:22 minutes per game on the third pair, and is an occasional healthy scratch.
As with the Ducks, it's going to take some creative work by the front office to fix this issue.
Outlook: Chicago's inconsistent blue line could be its Achilles heel.
Edmonton Oilers
The big issue: Lack of non-McDavid scoring
Widely perceived to be Stanley Cup contenders before the season began, the Oilers have started 2017-18 with a 7-9-2 record, having been outscored 54-46. While Connor McDavid's outstanding play may have fueled preseason expectations that were far too optimistic, they were commonly perceived to be a legitimate playoff team.
It's possible that some of the team's early struggles are just bad luck. At 5-on-5, the Oilers have bested their opponents 931-751 in shot attempts, for a Corsi of plus-180 that ranks second in the NHL (to the Carolina Hurricanes). Even when adjusted for score effects and the other factors that can impact shot-based metrics, the Oilers still rank fourth, according to the data compiled at PuckOn.Net. Despite outshooting their opponents, the Oilers are losing because they have scored on 7.2 percent of their shots, while their opponents have scored on 9.2 percent.
In time, some of those numbers are bound to reverse. If so, the key to turning the season around lies with the team's secondary forwards. Through the first 18 games, Edmonton has relied upon McDavid for direct assistance on 22 of the team's 46 goals, while the team's depth lines have combined for just seven. Perhaps Edmonton should stretch the lineup by splitting up McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who could center a scoring-focused third line that includes the newest Oiler, Michael Cammalleri, who was acquired from the Los Angeles Kings on Nov. 14 for Jussi Jokinen.
Outlook: Edmonton has dug itself into an early hole, but the team's strong underlying numbers suggest that it is possible for it to climb out without making drastic changes.
Minnesota Wild
The big issue: Lack of scoring in general
Coming off a franchise-high 106 points in 2016-17, there was a lot optimism in Minnesota this October. However, an 8-7-2 start has it in second-to-last place in the Central division, and calls a sixth consecutive playoff appearance into question.
To climb back to last season's heights, Minnesota's forwards need to put more pucks on net. In terms of shots per game, the Wild have fallen from 10th in 2016-17 to 28th so far this season, and their goals per game have dropped from No. 2 to 16.
Of the nine Minnesota forwards with the most shots last season, Jason Pominville and Erik Haula are no longer with the team, Zach Parise and Charlie Coyle are out of the lineup with long-term injuries, and Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund have each missed action with minor injuries. Newly acquired veterans like Daniel Winnik, Matt Cullen and Marcus Foligno have their uses, but they are not the type of players who can fill those gaps. Moreover, the Wild cannot turn to the team's primarily defense-oriented blue line for much of a spark.
Minnesota's highly experienced coaching staff of Bruce Boudreau, John Anderson & Co. are already hard at work addressing this issue by developing young, skilled players like Joel Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin. With time and a return to full health for others, this should address this issue.
Outlook: Minnesota is not the lock it was perceived to be, and will be fighting for a playoff spot all season.
Montreal Canadiens
The big issue: Goaltending
Historically, an average of at least one reigning divisional champion misses the playoffs the following season. This season, it could be all four, including the Canadiens, who have a record of 8-9-2 and have been outscored 63-47.
Obviously, the team's greatest problem has been in goal, where Carey Price has struggled with injuries and an .877 save percentage in 11 games. His backup, Al Montoya, is out with a concussion, and struggled with an .863 save percentage prior to being sidelined.
Montreal's temporary solution is to go with rookie Charlie Lindgren and veteran Antti Niemi, 34, who was claimed off waivers from the Florida Panthers. Given that Lindgren has just 57 AHL and 8 NHL games of professional experience, and Niemi's .906 save percentage since 2013-14 ranks 58th among the 61 active goalies to play at least 50 games in that span, there may have been better options. For example, Arizona acquired the more-serviceable Michael Leighton from the Tampa Bay Lightning on the same day that Montreal claimed Neimi, No. 14 -- maybe the Habs should have tried to beat the Coyotes to that proverbial punch.
Outlook: As usual, Montreal's fate rests in the hands of its goaltenders.