As of two years ago, the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs were floundering franchises. Combined, they made the playoffs just one time in the previous 10 seasons.
Now Edmonton and Toronto are both sitting in a wild-card spot, battling down the stretch for a playoff berth.
There are striking similarities behind their rebuilds. In the spring/summer of 2015, both teams hired Stanley Cup-winning general managers, then selected highly skilled forwards at the top of the draft. Each club then showed progress in 2015-16, but ultimately finished last in their conference. This season, they are mirror images, separated by just one regulation win (Toronto has 30, Edmonton 31).
With young superstars in place, they are traveling the path of teams like the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins, who were once punchlines, then turned high draft picks into a decade of success.
It's very likely they will be legitimate contenders for years to come, but are either the Oilers or Leafs good enough to win the Cup this year?
Top-heavy attack vs. scoring depth
In key statistical categories, the Oilers and Leafs are strikingly similar. They rank 10th and 11th in the NHL, respectively, in goals for percentage, and have the exact same Corsi for percentage (50.3), which is good for a tie for 16th place.
Toronto is a more prolific scoring team, producing the fourth highest goals for per 60 minutes rate in the NHL, but Edmonton isn't far behind, ranking 13th. The Oilers, however, rely far more on one star to carry the weight offensively:
While Connor McDavid has 47 even-strength points (15 goals, 32 assists), the next best 5-on-5 scorer has 20 fewer points. Winger Pat Maroon is the only other Oiler forward with double-digit even-strength goals, and he's currently on McDavid's wing. Leon Draisaitl is second in assists, with 18. He plays on McDavid's other wing. When the former No. 1 overall pick is on the ice, the Oilers score 3.06 goals per 60 minutes, when he's off, that number drops to 1.93 per 60.
Edmonton has seen players who they expected to provide secondary scoring come up short of expectations. Winger Milan Lucic, who signed a seven-year contract in the offseason, has just eight goals and 10 assists at even strength, and ranks eighth on the team in scoring rate.
Picking up David Desharnais from the Canadiens at the trade deadline may help the Oilers' production past their first line, but it's difficult to see a team lacking in depth scoring making it deep in the postseason. Last spring, the Penguins got four goals from fourth-line center Matt Cullen, and San Jose had star Logan Couture often centering their third line.
Toronto, on the other hand, has impressive depth scoring. They have seven players with more than 10 even-strength goals, led by rookie Auston Matthews' 24 tallies. Matthews and 2015 No. 4 overall selection Mitch Marner both have 34 total 5-on-5 points, which puts them in a tie for 22nd in the NHL, with teammate James van Riemsdyk just ahead, at 35.
Connor Brown and Zach Hyman -- at one time Matthews' two linemates (Hyman remains on his wing) -- have added a combined 43 5-on-5 points, and the Leafs acquired third-/fourth-line center Brian Boyle at the deadline. He has 10 even-strength goals this season. And the difference between Matthews on and off the ice is only 2.55 vs. 2.28 goals for per 60.
Come playoff time, the Maple Leafs' dynamic offense will make them a pretty scary matchup for opposing teams. However, the Oilers will have the best player on the ice in almost every matchup.
Defense and goaltending
Toronto may be the more impressive team offensively, but the Oilers are much better defensively. Edmonton ranks ninth in goals against per 60 minutes, whereas Toronto is 24th.
While the Oilers' deal to acquire Adam Larsson from the Devils was (rightfully) criticized, the former New Jersey defender has worked to stabilize a blue line that struggled for the better part of the last decade. Larsson has a 50.0 Corsi for percentage and 55.6 goals for percentage, the best mark on the Oilers.
With Darnell Nurse healthy, Edmonton now has three solid pairs, with Nurse playing most often with veteran Eric Gryba, offensive-minded defenseman Andrej Sekera with expert shot-blocker Kris Russell and Larsson playing alongside Oscar Klefbom to make up the top pair. Defenseman Matt Benning also has very strong numbers with a plus-4.5 relative Corsi percentage in over 700 minutes.
Compared to Stanley Cup-winning teams, the Oilers lack an elite No. 1 defenseman. Larsson doesn't match up to the likes of Duncan Keith, Kris Letang or Drew Doughty, but the Oilers have better blue-line depth than most teams in the West.
As for the Leafs, defenseman Jake Gardiner is having an excellent season, posting a 52.6 Corsi for percentage and an outstanding 60.4 goals for percentage.
In part, Gardiner's numbers are helped by coach Mike Babcock giving harder assignments to Morgan Rielly, who has been on the ice for far more defensive zone faceoffs (446 to 364) and matched up against tougher lines. Rielly has struggled at times with the role, ranking last on the team in goals for percentage.
Depth is the biggest issue on the blue line for the Leafs. The third pair of veterans Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak has just a 47.1 Corsi for percentage when playing together.
Toronto's defense corps has a higher ceiling, but might not yet be ready to take a team deep in the postseason.
In net, the starting goalies are very even. Edmonton starting netminder Cam Talbot has played 61 games and posted a .920 save percentage, while Toronto's Frederik Andersen has 55 games and a .917 save percentage. Both teams are relieved to finally have reliable goalies after years of futility at the position. And despite going 3-2 in five playoff starts with the Ducks last spring, Andersen posted a .947 save percentage, finally showing that he can step up when needed most.
The bottom line
The Oilers and Maple Leafs have different shortcomings -- ones they will work to fix in the offseason -- and neither team is ready to make runs deep in the playoffs just yet.
However, either team could make some noise if they draw the right matchup. On the other hand, here are teams with which Toronto and Edmonton would have the most difficult time:
Toughest matchups for Toronto
Washington Capitals
Regular season results: 1-0-1
Since the Leafs' strength is in their forward depth, facing the Eastern Conference's deepest forward group would be a major challenge. The Capitals have seven forwards with double-digit even-strength goal totals, and arguably the best top line in hockey. With the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk to Washington's blue line and an elite goaltender in Braden Holtby, the Caps are more of the team Toronto one day hopes to be than the team they should expect to beat right now.
Montreal Canadiens
Regular season results: 0-3-1
While Toronto's offense is enough to strike fear into opponents, Montreal is as good as it gets at preventing goals. Not only do they have one of the world's best goalies in Carey Price, the Habs also rank No. 3 in the NHL in Corsi for percentage, so they're aces at preventing opposing shot attempts. All together, they allow the second fewest 5-on-5 goals against per 60.
Boston Bruins
Regular season results: 3-0-0
The Leafs may have been terrific against Bruins during the regular season, but in a seven-game series Boston would have the major advantage in puck control, ranking as the league's second best team in Corsi for percentage. Boston is also second best in penalty kill percentage, and the Maple Leafs do a lot of their damage on the power play.
Toughest matchups for Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings
Regular season results: 1-1-0
The Kings have a knack for slowing the pace down and making life difficult on opposing top lines. Top center Anze Kopitar might be the most difficult player for McDavid to face because of his size, skating and relentless effort.
Minnesota Wild
Regular season results: 0-1-2
Minnesota has the deepest forward group in the West, especially after trading for center Martin Hanzal. Past the top lines, the Wild would have a huge advantage.
Nashville Predators
Regular season results: 0-2-1
If there is any group of defensemen that can skate with McDavid's line, it's Nashville's. A playoff series between the McDavid-led Oilers and P.K. Subban-led Predators would make for quite the track meet.