The Minnesota Wild's coaching staff went through a major upgrade this summer and now ranks as one of the most experienced and accomplished in the league. Significant coaching changes for teams such as the Wild, Ducks, Flames and Avalanche could doubtlessly have a significant impact on the standings, but can they be measured?
Using a methodology introduced for the 2009-10 season and explained in more detail last season, it is possible to objectively measure the experience and past success of each team's coaching staff at a high level.
How do things shape up for the 2016-17 season in the Western Conference? We'll examine those 14 teams here and place each staff into a specific tier:
Tier 1: Best of the best
Tier 2: Proven success
Tier 3: Balanced
Tier 4: Inexperienced or underachieving
The coaching experience/success matrix
The results of our analysis are easiest to observe on the following chart, which features a weighted average of each coaching staff's combined experience on the horizontal axis and an estimate of the success their teams have enjoyed on the vertical axis. The most skilled and experienced coaching staffs will therefore be on the top right, while those with the shortest lists of credentials are on the bottom left.
To briefly recap the formula, experience is the combined games of NHL head-coaching experience by anyone on the staff plus half-credit for experience in the AHL, ECHL, Canadian Major Junior Leagues and NCAA Division I. There's also a 25-game bonus for each season as an assistant coach.
The success metric is based on how a head coach's team fared in the standings, compared to the previous season. To be fair to those coaching particularly good or bad teams, the previous season's results are regressed 35 percent toward league average before the comparison is made, so a head coach must keep a good team good or help improve a bad team by more than it would have improved without him at the helm.
Tier 1: The best of the best
The teams in the top right corner of the chart are those that placed the highest value on experience and prior success when assembling the coaching staff. They are likely to extract the full potential of their rosters, and their teams should have their expectations moved up a position or two in the standings.
St. Louis Blues
Staff: Ken Hitchcock (head), Mike Yeo, Rick Wilson, Ray Bennett, Steve Thomas, Jim Corsi (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 3,488 games
Standings points added: 137 points
Win or lose, this is Ken Hitchcock's final season as head coach of the Blues before Yeo takes over. Until then, this coaching staff remains the most experienced and accomplished in the NHL. The Blues joined the NHL 50 years ago. How much longer can the Stanley Cup elude them?
Minnesota Wild
Staff: Bruce Boudreau (head), John Anderson, Darby Hendrickson, Scott Stevens, Bob Mason (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,934 games
Standings points added: 127 points
With the addition of one of the most experienced and accomplished coaches in the NHL (Boudreau) and the AHL (Anderson) to its staff, Minnesota has vaulted from one of the lower tiers to the top of the pack. Last season, the team that made such a massive upgrade -- the Buffalo Sabres -- improved in the standings by 27 points. Will the Wild follow suit and win the Central Division?
Tier 2: Proven success
There is no substitute for experience. The following teams have a strong coaching staff that has repeatedly proven itself through the years, and they have made no recent changes. These are the teams that are most likely to produce consistent and predictable results every season -- so long as no one gets hired away!
Los Angeles Kings
Staff: Darryl Sutter (head), John Stevens, Davis Payne, Bill Ranford (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,530 games
Standings points added: 77 points
All three of L.A.'s coaches have experience as NHL head coaches, but not with nearly the same success as Sutter, who ranks sixth in games coached and fourth in prior success among those who are still active. That's a key reason the Kings will continue to remain Stanley Cup contenders.
Nashville Predators
Staff: Peter Laviolette (head), Kevin McCarthy, Phil Housley, Ben Vaderklok (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,851 games
Standings points added: 76 points
As the two most accomplished American NHL coaches in history, either Laviolette or Buffalo's Dan Bylsma might have been safer choices than John Tortorella for Team USA in the World Cup of Hockey (though that's a column for another day). Nashville also gets a big boost from Kevin McCarthy, who has 20 seasons of experience as an assistant or associate NHL coach with four teams and five seasons as an AHL head coach.
Chicago Blackhawks
Staff: Joel Quenneville (head), Mike Kitchen, Kevin Dineen, Jimmy Waite (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,752 games
Standings points added: 44 points
As is the case with Los Angeles, all three Chicago coaches have experience as NHL head coaches, but not to nearly the extent of Quenneville, who leads active coaches in games played and is second to Hitchcock in past regular-season success. If the Blackhawks rank slightly lower than the Kings, it's because Stevens and Payne might have a slight edge over Kitchen and Dineen.
Tier 3: Balanced
In the Western Conference, the typical coaching staff has between 20 and 30 adjusted seasons of combined experience and can add an average of about two or three points per season.
San Jose Sharks
Staff: Peter DeBoer (head), Bob Boughner, Steve Spott, Johan Hedberg (assistant and goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,720 games
Standings points added: 55 points
Historically, coaching success in the OHL hasn't translated to the NHL, which is why San Jose GM Doug Wilson took a subtle risk last season in building a staff entirely around such coaches. That unappreciated gamble might have paid off with the franchise's first appearance in the Stanley Cup finals. But was it a one-time fluke, or is this a staff built for prolonged success?
Edmonton Oilers
Staff: Todd McLellan (head), Jay Woodcroft, Jim Johnson, Ian Herbers, Dustin Schwartz (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,687 games
Standings points added: 43 points
After going off the board for several seasons, the Oilers finally played it safe by assembling a coaching staff with proven results, with a mix of different teams in various leagues. It might not have felt like the team took a sufficiently strong stride forward, but this franchise is headed in the right direction and was wise to stick with this new combination.
Calgary Flames
Staff: Glen Gulutzan (head), Dave Cameron, Paul Jerrard, Martin Gelinas, Jordan Sigalet (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,548 games
Standings points added: 40 points
Calgary's new coaching staff might not have a lot of experience or success at the NHL level, but these metrics give partial credit for success in other leagues, of which this group has plenty. Most notably, Gulutzan distinguished himself in his six seasons with the ECHL's Las Vegas Wranglers, and Cameron might be one of the top 10 coaches in OHL history.
Vancouver Canucks
Staff: Willie Desjardins (head), Doug Jarvis, Perry Pearn, Doug Lidster, Dan Cloutier (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,953 games
Standings points added: 35 points
Desjardins has had mixed results in his two seasons in the NHL but was almost without peer in both the AHL and WHL. Plus, he is backed up by a combined 44 seasons of NHL assistant-coaching experience between Pearn and Jarvis, the latter of whom is the newest arrival.
Anaheim Ducks
Staff: Randy Carlyle (head), Paul MacLean, Trent Yawney, Rich Preston, Sudarshan Maharaj (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,413 games
Standings points added: 11 points
Despite a dominant second half and the club's fourth consecutive division title, the Ducks replaced Boudreau with Carlyle, the architect of their 2007 Stanley Cup, in hopes of some postseason success. Like the Kings and Blackhawks in the second tier, the Ducks have three coaches with NHL head-coaching experience, but Carlyle doesn't have the same track record of regular-season success as Sutter and Quenneville. That slides the Ducks down to the third tier, and it might cost them a few points in the standings.
Arizona Coyotes
Staff: Dave Tippett (head), Newell Brown, Jim Playfair, John Slaney, Jon Elkin (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,481 games
Standings points added: 4 points
Despite missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, Arizona's experienced coaching staff remains intact. That includes Tippett, whose eight-season tenure with the Coyotes ranks third in NHL longevity, behind Boston's Claude Julien with 10 and Quenneville with nine. The team has endured its share of challenges and disappointments over the years, but this might be the season the hard work and persistence finally pay off.
Dallas Stars
Staff: Lindy Ruff (head), Curt Fraser, James Patrick, Jeff Reese (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,486 games
Standings points added: Minus-3 points
In the balance between experience and past success, the Stars' coaching staff is built more around the former. Ruff ranks second to Quenneville among active coaches, with 1,411 games of NHL head-coaching experience, and Fraser adds a range of experience in both the AHL and the NHL.
Tier 4: Inexperienced or underachieving
Whether by choice or by circumstance, some teams are going with a less accomplished and/or less experienced coaching staff this season. Either these teams don't place the same value on such factors or they have far different ways of measuring them.
Colorado Avalanche
Staff: Jared Bednar (head), Tim Army, Dave Farrish, Nolan Pratt, Francois Allaire (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,655 games
Standings points added: 13 points
With his sudden resignation on Aug. 11, last season's coach, Patrick Roy, might have left the Avalanche in a bit of a lurch. Ultimately, GM Joe Sakic settled on Bednar as Roy's replacement, and Bednar's modest experience and success in the AHL statistically still eclipse that of his assistants, Farrish and Army. This will be an interesting experiment.
Winnipeg Jets
Staff: Paul Maurice (head), Charlie Huddy, Jamie Kompon, Todd Woodcroft, Wade Flaherty (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,234 games
Standings points added: Minus-42 points
Maurice is a highly respected coach with 18 seasons of NHL head-coaching experience, but his teams have made the playoffs just five times. Whether it was Winnipeg, Carolina, Toronto or the old Hartford Whalers, Maurice-coached teams have usually slipped in the standings. There's unquestionably a wealth of experience and reputation on Winnipeg's bench, but there isn't a lot of data to support the breakout season that many pundits have forecast.