A few months ago, it looked like this year's No. 1 goalie prospect ranking would be the easiest I've ever done, after Matt Murray was a significant part of the Penguins' Stanley Cup run.
That was before I realized Andrei Vasilevskiy had fallen just short of being considered a graduate -- 25 or more NHL games played in any one season or 50 or more NHL games total in a career -- and then this turned into one of the hardest calls I've had to make in net. After that captivating debate at No. 1, there are a number of interesting goalie prospects in the pipeline, so it's not as if the rest of the top 10 was any easier.
Furthermore, I broke the convention of five honorable mentions to have six this season because I felt this group was a tier through No. 16, and cutting one without a mention would be doing a disservice to that player.
Note: "2015-16 team" refers to the club for whom the prospect played the most games this past season. For the top 120 skaters, click here.
1. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
Previous rank: 1 | Age: 22 | Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 207
2015-16 team: Tampa Bay (NHL)
Vasilevskiy is the goalie of the future for Tampa, with the future and present starting to bridge a much narrower gap. He's one of the best young goaltenders I've ever seen, and he has the rare projection, though obviously not a guarantee, to be a top-flight NHL player. He is big but incredibly athletic for a guy his size. He makes saves that require such explosiveness that it seems like he weighs 110 pounds. On top of that, he's a very refined player with his technique, with a high level of hockey IQ. It's hard to find one major flaw in his game, other than his simply needing more experience against NHL shooters.
2. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins
Previous rank: 6 | Age: 22 | Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 179
2015-16 team: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL)
One could reasonably argue that Murray had an above-average season -- to put mildly. The past two seasons, he posted one of the highest combined save percentages (between AHL and NHL) among players his age the past two decades, he delivered a Stanley Cup to Pittsburgh, and he's still Calder trophy-eligible! His hockey sense is elite. Hockey people describe him as calm and collected, but to me, the reason he's so calm in the net is that he reads the play so well that he never needs to overexert himself. His lower-body explosiveness has improved, but that has never been the key to his game. He's all about staying controlled.
3. Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators
Previous rank: 3 | Age: 21 | Height: 5-foot-10 | Weight: 179
2015-16 team: Milwaukee (AHL)
Saros held steady this year as one of the top goalie prospects in the world. He was a top player in Milwaukee and posted two shutouts in two tries at the IIHF World Championship. His skill set is one of the more dynamic you'll see in a goaltender. He's incredibly quick, with top-end ability to go outside his frame to get shots. Saros is also a very smart goalie who reads the play quickly and has the focus to not lose the puck or get rattled. His major issue -- which hasn't changed in years -- is his very small stature in net, with the occasional high shot making that quite plain.
4. Ilya Samsonov, Washington Capitals
Previous rank: Not ranked | Age: 19 | Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 205
2015-16 team: Magnitogorsk (KHL)
Samsonov was very good this past season, playing at a very high level in the KHL for an 18-year-old and posting the highest save percentage in league history by a goalie that young (.925). He's a big netminder who moves like he's 5-foot-10. Samsonov can make some very acrobatic saves, explodes on his side-to-side push-offs, recovers out of his butterfly quickly and has a solid glove hand. He challenges shooters high in his crease and doesn't shy away from playing an aggressive style, though he can get caught out of position at times.
5. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
Previous rank: 10 | Age: 21 | Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 176
2015-16 team: CSKA (KHL)
Not to be outdone by the Capitals' Ilya, Sorokin had a fantastic season and earned top KHL goaltender accolades, though some context is needed. His .953 save percentage was second-best among KHL starters in what has become a statistically odd league. He also did well in brief showings at the World Championship. He's a well-rounded goalkeeper who can make stops due to his top-level athleticism moving across the crease or stopping pucks away from his body. He's a smart positional player, and he's a battler between the pipes who doesn't shy away from playing aggressive angles. The mental lapses that have plagued him in the past seem to be diminishing.
6. Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks
Previous rank: 7 | Age: 20 | Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 192
2015-16 team: Boston College (Hockey East)
Demko's performance bordered on ridiculous in his junior season at Boston College. He started 39 games, and 10 of those were shutouts. Demko is a big, calm, athletic goaltender with excellent hockey sense who has played at a high level the past few years. He has cleaned up the finer parts of his game, allowing fewer low percentage shots to get by him, and with added bulk, he can be a force in the net when he's up high on his angles. He isn't too far away from pushing his way into the Canucks' lineup, and depending whom you ask, some scouts see him as a potential above-average starter in the NHL.
7. Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers
Previous rank: Not eligible | Age: 18 | Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 181
2015-16 team: Everett (WHL)
The CHL Goalie of the Year in 2015-16, Hart is a very smart goaltender. His knowledge of how to read the game and anticipate pucks using proper positioning in the net is high-end. Scouts describe how easy he makes it look and how he never gets out of his technique on tough saves. His athleticism is fine. He moves around at a solid level, and he has an above-average glove hand, but he doesn't have that explosive element in his game.
8. Malcolm Subban, Boston Bruins
Previous rank: 4 | Age: 22 | Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 201
2015-16 team: Providence (AHL)
The younger brother of Predators defenseman P.K. Subban, Malcolm Subban had a down season statistically in 2015-16, but I'm optimistic on him and hate dinging goalies on 30 games after a long track record of success. He can steal a game as well as anyone in the AHL. He has a real explosiveness in his lower body and has top-end reflexes as well. Injuries might have slowed him down, but Subban was also the victim of some poor decision-making on his part and not tracking the puck particularly well at times.
9. Jon Gillies, Calgary Flames
Previous rank: 8 | Age: 22 | Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 236
2015-16 team: Stockton (AHL)
Gillies missed most of the season because of a hip injury that has been nagging him for years. But when he's on the ice, he's a 6-foot-6 goaltender who moves around like he's 6-foot-1, in terms of his athleticism. His positioning and puck tracking can still use a little more cleaning up, but with Brian Elliott brought into the mix at the NHL level this season, he'll have time to develop.
10. Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Previous rank: Honorable mention | Age: 20 | Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 190
2015-16 team: SKA (VHL)
Shesterkin has been a favorite of mine for some time now, and he dominated the VHL (the KHL version of the AHL) this past season as that league's top goaltender. He showed well in stints in the KHL and with Russia's national team too. Shesterkin is a very athletic goalie with high-end reflexes. His glove is able to get him out of tough situations with consistency, and his lateral agility helps him make a lot of difficult saves. His positioning and depth in the net can use some work, as he isn't the most fundamentally sound goalie when it comes to squaring up shooters.
Honorable mentions
11. Calvin Pickard, Colorado Avalanche
12. Filip Gustavsson, Pittsburgh Penguins
13. Mackenzie Blackwood, New Jersey Devils
14. Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues
15. Felix Sandstrom, Philadelphia Flyers
16. Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers