Which NBA stars have been sidelined so far during the 2021-22 NBA season, and how are their teams dealing with the players' long-term injuries?
While the first half of the season was largely defined by player absences due to the league's COVID-19 health and safety protocols, there have been some big names to miss significant time with injuries, including the Brooklyn Nets' Kevin Durant (knee), the Phoenix Suns' Chris Paul (thumb), the Chicago Bulls' Lonzo Ball (knee) the Portland Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard (abdomen) and the Washington Wizards' Bradley Beal (wrist).
But which injuries could sideline stars for the remainder of the regular season and into the postseason?
Throughout the 2021-22 season, we're breaking down what lies ahead for injured stars and their short-handed teams, including the impact on the playoff and play-in races, draft lottery odds, trade season and free agency.
March 28: Celtics' Robert Williams III out several weeks with torn meniscus
Although Williams is only sixth on the Boston Celtics in scoring at 10.0 points per game, behind the departed Dennis Schroder as well as reserve Derrick White, that doesn't measure his key role in Boston's success.
Williams is a linchpin of Boston's league-leading defense. The Celtics are allowing an NBA-low 105.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and have been far better relative to everyone else as the season has gone on. Since the start of the new year, Boston's 104.3 defensive rating is 4.5 points per 100 possessions lower than the second-place team (the Dallas Mavericks at 108.8).
In part, the Celtics' defense evolved when first-year head coach Ime Udoka made the unconventional choice to have Williams defend most opponents' power forwards with Al Horford typically cross-matching on centers. That took Williams out of the point of attack on most pick-and-rolls, freeing him to offer help in the paint.
The strategy has worked for a couple of reasons.
MORE: How Boston replaces Williams' rim protection
March 6: Cavs' Jarrett Allen out indefinitely with fractured finger
Allen's finger fracture comes after a rough patch for the Cleveland Cavaliers, whose win Sunday over the Toronto Raptors -- with Allen playing limited minutes prior to the injury -- was just their second in the last eight games. Cleveland played much of that stretch without its other All-Star, point guard Darius Garland, who has missed eight games due to low back soreness since Jan. 31.
Fortunately for the Cavaliers, Sunday's win helped assure they'll finish with a top-six seed and avoid the play-in tournament. Cleveland moved three games ahead of No. 7 Toronto in the standings and clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker by improving to 3-0 in the season series with one game remaining on March 24.
It's possible Allen could be back by then. There's a wide range of past outcomes with a finger fracture, from around a week on the low end to a month on the high end. The Cavaliers are 2-6 without Allen this season, though the four games he missed in December in the NBA's health and safety protocols overlapped with the absence of several other key players, including rookie frontcourt-mate Evan Mobley.
With Mobley now available, the Cavaliers will likely shift to smaller lineups. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff may prefer to keep Kevin Love in the reserve role in which he's been highly productive this season. Dean Wade has typically been promoted in that scenario, but against the versatile Raptors, Bickerstaff went with 6-foot-7 wing Cedi Osman as Allen's replacement.
March 3: Nets' Joe Harris shut down for the season
Given the Brooklyn Nets had already acknowledged Joe Harris suffered a setback in his recovery from ankle surgery on Nov. 29, it's no surprise that another surgery with a longer timeline might be coming. Brooklyn prepared for this possibility to some degree by adding Seth Curry in the trade with the Philadelphia 76ers headlined by James Harden and Ben Simmons, replacing Harris' shooting ability in the lineup.
Still, officially losing Harris is a blow to the Nets' flickering title hopes. At 6-foot-6, Harris offers more size to go along with his 44% career 3-point mark than the 6-foot-2 Curry or 6-foot-1 Patty Mills, making him less of a defensive target in the postseason. And, of course, there was nothing stopping coach Steve Nash from using a healthy Harris alongside Curry or Mills to really maximize the shooting around Kevin Durant and (when eligible) Kyrie Irving.
In the short term, the biggest goal for Brooklyn is simply stabilizing a spot in the play-in tournament. An impressive win against the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday has been followed by another three losses, bringing the Nets to 3-16 over their past 19 games.
Durant's return to the lineup will help, certainly, but Brooklyn no longer has much margin for error. The Nets are now just a game ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks, effectively tied for ninth in the East standings. Brooklyn wants to stay in eighth, which offers the possibility of winning a single-elimination game on the road with Irving eligible to reach the playoffs. If they slip to ninth, the Nets would have to win two games just to get there.
Feb. 23: Blazers' Jusuf Nurkic out four weeks with foot injury
We've said this before, but Nurkic's left foot plantar fasciitis seems like it will finally cause the Blazers to slip out of the 10th and final play-in spot in the Western Conference after they surged back ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs with a four-game winning streak going into the All-Star break.
Not only is Nurkic having a strong season (his 11.1 rebounds per game and 56% 2-point shooting are both career highs), Portland is exceptionally thin behind him at center. The Blazers traded Larry Nance Jr. to the Pelicans as part of the CJ McCollum trade and waived injured veteran Cody Zeller to make room for their newcomers earlier this month, leaving them without any other player taller than 6-foot-9 on their current roster.
Undrafted rookie Trendon Watford, whose two-way contract was recently replaced with a full NBA deal, has been backing Nurkic up in the middle. Portland also signed Drew Eubanks, who played at Oregon State after starring in nearby Troutdale in high school, to a 10-day hardship contract. Eubanks, who played in 49 games for the Spurs before being traded to the Toronto Raptors and subsequently waived, figures to see heavy minutes in a center rotation with Watford.
Feb. 20: Suns' Chris Paul out 6-8 weeks with thumb injury
The way the Suns have kept their foot on the gas all season will pay off now. Phoenix's 6.5-game lead in the West will be difficult, if not impossible, for the Golden State Warriors to make up, particularly with the return date for All-Star Draymond Green uncertain. It's actually possible the Memphis Grizzlies, eight games back in the standings, could be as much of a threat.
Projections from FiveThirtyEight and ESPN's Basketball Power Index both have Golden State and Memphis finishing with the same average number of wins -- 54 (BPI) or 55 (FiveThirtyEight).
Those marks should be easy for the Suns, who already have racked up 48 wins, to hit with 24 games remaining on their schedule. Phoenix's remaining slate also looks favorable, with nine of those 24 games against teams currently outside the play-in tournament in either conference and another six against teams trending toward the play-in. Ideally, the Suns would have the top spot all but secured before they face the Warriors and Grizzlies in back-to-back road games on March 30 and April 1.
MORE: Will CP3 be healthy for the playoffs?
Feb. 17: Lakers' Anthony Davis out at least 4 weeks with foot sprain
If it weren't for bad injury luck, would Davis have any at all? I suppose in some ways he was fortunate the ugly-looking foot injury he suffered Wednesday night wasn't worse. Scheduled to be reevaluated in four weeks, Davis should have a chance to be back before the end of the regular season. Still, by the time Davis returns, he'll likely have missed about half the Lakers' games during the 2020-21 campaign.
The upshot of those absences is Lakers coach Frank Vogel has a good idea of how to play without Davis. LeBron James will surely slide back to center for extended stretches in smallball lineups. That worked Wednesday as the Lakers rallied from a five-point deficit when Davis left the game to beat the Utah Jazz. LeBron played 12 of his 20 second-half minutes as the Lakers' lone big man.
It will be interesting to see whether Davis' injury intensifies the Lakers' search for help on the buyout market. DeAndre Jordan, who's played just 43 minutes since the calendar turned to 2022, would be an obvious candidate to clear a roster spot in favor of a newcomer. However, it's unclear who that player might be with Tristan Thompson headed to the Chicago Bulls, according to Rick Carlisle. Though Robin Lopez and Mike Muscala would be upgrades, they may not become available.
With the Lakers 4.5 games up on the 11th-place New Orleans Pelicans entering the All-Star break, they're in little danger of dropping out of the play-in tournament. Davis' absence does make it all the more likely the Lakers stay in ninth, which would mean needing to win two single-elimination games just to claim the eighth seed and a likely first-round rematch against the Phoenix Suns.
Feb. 14: Bucks' Pat Connaughton expected to miss four weeks with hand injury
The timing of Connaughton's injury is disappointing for the Bucks, whose willingness to trade Donte DiVincenzo in a four-team deal last Thursday was surely tied in part to having Connaughton as another option on the wing. Hours later, Connaughton fractured his finger in Phoenix.
Of course, the timing could be much worse. Connaughton should be back in plenty of time for the playoffs and Milwaukee could add perimeter depth if the team wins a battle to sign Goran Dragic on the buyout market. Between now and then, the Bucks will rely on Wesley Matthews and Jordan Nwora to fill in on the wing.
Feb. 8: Wizards' Bradley Beal done for season with wrist injury
After signing a two-year extension back in October 2019, Beal has been adamant to the media he doesn't plan to do so this time around. Instead, Beal wants to test unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career at age 28. Does that mean leaving Washington?
Not necessarily. The Wizards still have the advantage of being able to pay Beal the most money using Bird rights. As a 10-year veteran, he'll be eligible to sign a max contract starting at a projected $42.35 million (based on the revised cap estimate of $121 million for 2022-23). Washington can give up five years with an 8% annual raise for a total of $245.6 million.
If Beal decides to go elsewhere, the most he could make signing with another team would be a four-year deal with 5% annual raises for a total of $182.1 million. However, with few teams holding cap space, Beal is more likely to change teams via trade. As ESPN's Bobby Marks pointed out, that opens a scenario where Beal could pick up his $36.4 million player option as a precursor to a trade.
In the opt-in and trade scenario, Beal would potentially make $41.9 million next season -- his player option plus a 15% trade bonus. Because of limitations on extensions after trades, Beal would have to wait six months to extend with his new team. He could then add four years starting at the 2023-24 max (projected at $43.7 million) for a total of $228 million over five years, which could increase if the 2023-24 cap comes in higher than expected.
MORE: How Beal's injury impacts the deadline in D.C.
PREVIOUS INJURIES
Feb. 1: Mavs' Tim Hardaway Jr. has surgery on broken left foot
Although the Mavericks didn't offer a timetable for Hardaway's return, realistically he can be expected to miss a minimum of six weeks, which would sideline him through mid-March. Injury analyst Jeff Stotts noted earlier this season on InStreetClothes.com that the average NBA player rehab time from when the injury is suffered (last Tuesday in Hardaway's case) is 10 to 11 weeks, meaning he might not return until the postseason.
Dallas has enough depth to survive an extended Hardaway absence as one of the top six teams in the Western Conference, making his return for the playoffs a priority. Reggie Bullock has taken on a bigger role on the wing since Hardaway went down, along with second-year forward Josh Green. Sterling Brown could also factor back into the mix when he returns from left foot soreness.
Still, Hardaway's absence could affect how the Mavericks approach the upcoming trade deadline. Not having Hardaway as a secondary shot creator makes it more difficult for Dallas to consider trading impending unrestricted free agent Jalen Brunson.
Jan. 31: Jazz's Joe Ingles out for season with torn ACL
One of the disappointments of the Utah Jazz's run as Western Conference contenders has been their inability to develop young contributors since drafting Donovan Mitchell in 2017, futility that now leaves Utah short on options to replace Ingles in the rotation.
It's not for lack of trying. Including the two other picks made after Mitchell during the 2017 draft, the Jazz have added nine players through the draft in that span. None have played more than 146 minutes for Utah this season. (The best of the group, Grayson Allen, was dealt as part of the Jazz's deal to add starting point guard Mike Conley.)
In particular, Utah has to look back at the 2020 draft with regret. The Jazz took Kansas center Udoka Azubuike with the 27th pick, passing up the opportunity to add a wing player (the next two taken were Jaden McDaniels and Desmond Bane) in favor of drafting one in the second round (Elijah Hughes). Azubuike's development has been slowed by a pair of serious ankle injuries, while Hughes has yet to contribute. The two players have played a combined 148 minutes in 2021-22.
The one young contributor Utah has found is guard Trent Forrest, who signed a two-way contract after going undrafted in 2020. Forrest has stepped into a rotation role in January, providing capable on-ball defense and high-percentage 2-point shooting (58% this season). Forrest will surely be part of the plan for replacing Ingles as soon as Forrest recovers from an ankle sprain that sidelined him Sunday, but he's only made seven career 3-point attempts in 706 minutes, which could limit his value in the playoffs.
As far as the size Ingles provided at 6-foot-8, the Jazz will surely turn to forward Danuel House Jr., who's playing on his second non-hardship 10-day contract after being waived by the Houston Rockets in December to make room for younger players. House's addition has been well-timed for Utah, as the team was hit hard by short-term injuries before losing Ingles.
MORE: What Ingles' injury means for Utah's trade deadline
Jan. 27: Blazers' Nassir Little done for season with shoulder injury
The timing of Little's shoulder injury is a bummer for the Blazers, whose hot streak stalled out with back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks at home. Little's emergence as starting small forward with first CJ McCollum and more recently Norman Powell unavailable was a factor in Portland's recent defensive improvement.
As noted by injury analyst Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com on Twitter, it's occasionally possible for players to play through labrum tears. The more likely outcome is surgery that would end Little's season but allow him to return in time for training camp next fall -- when he'll be eligible for an extension to his rookie contract.
Powell can step back into the starting lineup, but the ripple effects will hurt the Blazers' depth. On Wednesday, with Robert Covington also sidelined by a low-grade MCL sprain that should be short term, Portland started Tony Snell, with CJ Elleby getting 20 minutes off the bench and rookie Greg Brown III also part of the rotation, as the Blazers got blown out by the Mavericks.
The next two weeks are crucial for Portland to decide how to approach the trade deadline, with Covington and starting center Jusuf Nurkic both in the final year of their contracts. It also could determine whether the Blazers bring Damian Lillard back from core muscle surgery for a play-in push or instead prioritize keeping their lottery-protected first-round pick, which goes to the Bulls if Portland makes the playoffs.
Jan. 25: Bulls' Alex Caruso, Lonzo Ball and Derrick Jones Jr. to miss 6-8 weeks
Besides the specific value of Ball and Caruso, losing them for an extended stretch is also painful because the Bulls' injuries are mounting. They've played nearly all season without forward Patrick Williams, whose wrist surgery might sideline him the remainder of the schedule. Now a fourth Chicago player will be sidelined 6-8 weeks: forward Derrick Jones Jr., who suffered a right index finger fracture while already dealing with a knee hyperextension that had him out of the lineup.
The combination of injuries left Alfonzo McKinnie (who was initially signed to a hardship deal before inking a minimum contract that is now guaranteed for the rest of the season) and Tyler Cook (on a two-way contract) starting at power forward before Javonte Green returned for Monday's win in Oklahoma City. The Bulls also got All-Star guard Zach LaVine back for that game after the team went 1-4 in his absence.
Until a four-game losing streak that included lopsided losses to the Nets and Golden State Warriors at home, Chicago had been able to hold things together. The team won nine in a row after returning from an eight-day pause caused by a number of players entering health and safety protocols, and five of those wins came when Ball was unavailable.
It helped that Coby White was ready to ramp up his minutes just as Ball and Caruso missed time. While White isn't nearly the defender at the point of attack they are, he's scoring more efficiently than at any point during his first two seasons. White is making a career-high 37% of his 3-point attempts and shooting a career-best 53% inside the arc.
Additionally, the Bulls have gotten valuable contributions from second-round pick Ayo Dosunmu, another quality perimeter defender for Donovan to employ. Dosunmu dropped to the second round because of concerns about his offense translating, but he's played within his limitations and hit 44% of his limited 3-point attempts -- far better than his 34.5% career accuracy from the shorter NCAA line.
Still, at some point the Bulls' depth might be stretched too thin. Losing Ball and Caruso also makes Chicago a much smaller team. Their size as guards (Caruso is listed at 6-foot-5, Ball at 6-6) helped compensate for the Bulls' small frontcourt and allowed Donovan to use lineups with four perimeter players around center Nikola Vucevic.
MORE: Are the Bulls headed for the East play-in?
Jan. 25: Blazers center Cody Zeller expected to miss 8-10 weeks
Zeller underwent knee surgery on Tuesday to address a patellar injury and is expected to miss 8 to 10 weeks, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Between the patellar fracture and a stint in the NBA's health and safety protocols, Zeller has played just three games since Dec. 6, so the Blazers have adjusted to his absence. With Larry Nance Jr. currently sidelined by knee inflammation, undrafted rookie Trendon Watford has backed up Jusuf Nurkic during Portland's recent 7-4 surge.
Given Zeller is uncertain to return before the end of the regular season, the Blazers will likely look to trade him before the trade deadline. Sending him to a team with an open roster spot would not only clear the way for Portland to sign another big man as insurance in the frontcourt but also reduce the team's luxury-tax bill if no bigger deal emerges between now and Feb. 10.
Jan. 16: Nets' Kevin Durant out with MCL sprain in left knee
Even in the 2021 playoffs, the Nets only had all three stars together for their first-round series win over the Boston Celtics. James Harden suffered a reinjury to one of his hamstrings a minute into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Milwaukee Bucks and returned ahead of schedule after Irving was lost for the series with an ankle sprain.
To some extent, of course, that's the value of having three stars. Brooklyn should be able to survive Durant's absence because Harden and Kyrie Irving are able to pick up more of the load. Even in the handful of home games between now and the All-Star break where Irving will be ineligible to play because of his vaccination status (five total), Harden alone gives the Nets a chance to win. Brooklyn is 7-4 in games where he's the lone member of the big three available.
MORE: Why the MVP race is likely over for KD
Jan. 12: Blazers' Damian Lillard to have surgery for abdominal injury
If the Blazers slip in the West standings, unloading at the deadline could be attractive given the team's financial position. Portland's team salary is currently $3 million over the luxury tax line, and paying the tax for a lottery team would make little sense. (Of the 20 taxpaying teams over the past four seasons, just two missed the playoffs: the 2019-20 Minnesota Timberwolves and last season's Golden State Warriors, who were upset in the play-in as the eighth seed.)
Trading Robert Covington or Jusuf Nurkic for lower-salaried players would be the easiest way for the Blazers to get under the tax line, particularly if they're uncertain about re-signing either player as an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Of the two, Nurkic seems more likely to return. He has started all 37 games he has played and is shooting a career-high 54% from the field, though Nurkic's block rate is down this season.
By contrast, Covington lost his starting job to newcomer Larry Nance Jr. in December, and Covington hasn't been able to make the same defensive impact in Portland as he did in his previous stops with the Philadelphia 76ers, Timberwolves and Houston Rockets. Given his ability to complement star players in a 3-and-D role, Covington should have value to a contending team.
MORE: How the Blazers move forward without Lillard
Dec. 29: Cavs' Ricky Rubio done for season with torn ACL
At age 31, Rubio was probably looking at his last big payday in free agency given his strong play so far in 2021-22. This was twice in three years that Rubio has helped a young team take a positive step in its development, having started at point guard for the Phoenix Suns as they went 8-0 in the bubble before being traded as part of their deal for Chris Paul.
Now, there are questions about both Rubio's availability and his effectiveness going forward. It's best now to think of an ACL tear as a 12-month injury at best; no player has returned from a complete ACL tear in less than 11 months since JJ Hickson in 2014. That likely rules out Rubio for the first couple months of the 2022-23 season.
Sadly, this is Rubio's second time tearing the ACL in his left knee, putting him in a small cohort of NBA players to suffer the same injury to the same knee multiple times.
MORE: What lies ahead for Rubio and the Cavaliers
Dec. 18: Lakers' Anthony Davis sidelined by MCL sprain
Besides seeding, the other potential problem with losing Davis for an extended stretch is the pressure it puts on James. Not only will he likely have to play more against bigger frontcourt opponents, but James also might end up logging heavier minutes to keep the Lakers' offense afloat.
Adding Westbrook was intended to help the Lakers stay potent without Davis and James after both stars were sidelined for a month in the second half of 2020-21, during which the team went 7-9. That hasn't proved the case.
During 2020-21, lineups without both James and Davis ranked in the 15th percentile of all lineups in offensive rating and had a minus-3.2 net rating, according to Cleaning the Glass, which factors out garbage time.
Dec. 1: Heat's Bam Adebayo undergoes surgery to repair thumb injury
At the point of Adebayo's surgery, the Heat's offense had been dramatically better this season with him on the bench, scoring 10.2 more points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats. This result was almost certainly a fluke.
Miami's offense was better with Adebayo last season, and the difference can primarily be traced to 3-point shooting: 32% with Adebayo on the court and 39% with him on the bench. According to Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality (qSQ) measure, the Heat are getting better shots with Adebayo in the lineup.
Redistributing Adebayo's minutes to a combination of Dewayne Dedmon, Markieff Morris, the team's perimeter reserves and forward KZ Okpala implies a drop-off of about 1.2 points per 100 possessions based on these players' current talent ratings in Darko Plus-Minus (DPM). Over the course of a full season, that would be about a three-win drop-off.
Fortunately for Miami, Adebayo will miss only about a quarter of the season at most based on his current timetable, which would potentially be a one-win hit to the team's projection. In the crowded East, that could still make a crucial difference.
Nov. 29: Nuggets' Michael Porter Jr. has third back surgery
Porter's health going forward is at least as big a concern for the Nuggets as his absence this season. Because of concerns about Porter's back, Denver was able to get an elite talent with the 14th pick of the 2018 draft. Given that the player taken immediately in front of him (Jerome Robinson) and one taken two spots later (Zhaire Smith) are already out of the NBA, that gamble paid off for the Nuggets.
Still, the timing of Porter's latest surgery looks like a worst-case scenario for Denver. In the wake of Porter's strong finish to 2020-21, the Nuggets signed him to a five-year, maximum contract extension last summer with only limited concession to Porter's injury risk.
The first four years of Porter's extension are fully guaranteed, along with $12 million of his projected $39.3 million salary in the final year of the contract, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. (That number can increase based on Porter's accomplishments over the next four years.) From Porter's standpoint, he's thankfully protected financially if his career trajectory is thrown off by back surgery. Denver, by contrast, wouldn't get a break until 2026-27.
In many ways, the situation parallels that of Porter's coach at Nathan Hale High School in Seattle, Brandon Roy.
MORE: What lies ahead for Porter and the Nuggets?
Nov. 19: Cavs' Collin Sexton done for season with torn meniscus
There are a handful of possible outcomes for players like Sexton with meniscus tears. Occasionally, a small tear can be treated with rest and rehab, as was the case with Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid in last season's playoffs. Embiid returned to play through the injury within a week.
Much more commonly, surgery is required. That's where there are two paths with very different timetables. A meniscectomy removes the injured part of the meniscus, allowing a player to come back within weeks, not months.
Depending on the location and size of the tear, it's also possible to undergo a meniscus repair as Sexton did. That can be better long-term because it preserves the meniscus, but the recovery process is much longer. James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2020 draft, underwent a meniscus repair in April and still hasn't been cleared to return to the court. Hence Sexton's surgery is season-ending.
Looming over Sexton's decision was his impending restricted free agency.
MORE: How Cleveland's playoff odds took a hit after Sexton's injury