What does Joe Ingles' untimely season-ending knee injury mean for him and the Utah Jazz?
Viewers feared the worst after Ingles' left knee buckled on a drive during Sunday's loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. On Monday, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that an MRI confirmed an ACL tear for Ingles, ending his 2021-22 campaign.
Over the course of eight seasons in Utah, Ingles has worked himself from a fringe NBA player -- the Jazz claimed him off waivers from the LA Clippers at the end of training camp in 2014 -- into a quality starting wing, and more recently, one of the league's top reserves. He finished second to teammate Jordan Clarkson in last season's Sixth Man of the Year voting.
Now, Utah must figure out how to replace Ingles, given he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer after playing on a one-year extension to his contract signed in October 2019.
Let's take a look at the implications of Ingles' injury, both for the Jazz and for his upcoming unrestricted free agency.
The Jazz have limited in-house options
One of the disappointments of the Jazz's run as Western Conference contenders has been their inability to develop young contributors since drafting Donovan Mitchell in 2017, futility that now leaves Utah short on options to replace Ingles in the rotation.
It's not for lack of trying. Including the two other picks made after Mitchell during the 2017 draft, the Jazz have added nine players through the draft in that span. None have played more than 146 minutes for Utah this season. (The best of the group, Grayson Allen, was dealt as part of the Jazz's deal to add starting point guard Mike Conley.)
In particular, Utah has to look back at the 2020 draft with regret. The Jazz took Kansas center Udoka Azubuike with the 27th pick, passing up the opportunity to add a wing player (the next two taken were Jaden McDaniels and Desmond Bane) in favor of drafting one in the second round (Elijah Hughes). Azubuike's development has been slowed by a pair of serious ankle injuries, while Hughes has yet to contribute. The two players have played a combined 148 minutes in 2021-22.
The one young contributor Utah has found is guard Trent Forrest, who signed a two-way contract after going undrafted in 2020. Forrest has stepped into a rotation role in January, providing capable on-ball defense and high-percentage 2-point shooting (58% this season). Forrest will surely be part of the plan for replacing Ingles as soon as Forrest recovers from an ankle sprain that sidelined him Sunday, but he's only made seven career 3-point attempts in 706 minutes, which could limit his value in the playoffs.
As far as the size Ingles provided at 6-foot-8, the Jazz will surely turn to forward Danuel House Jr., who's playing on his second non-hardship 10-day contract after being waived by the Houston Rockets in December to make room for younger players. House's addition has been well-timed for Utah, as the team was hit hard by short-term injuries before losing Ingles. Currently sidelined because of the NBA's health and safety protocols, House seems likely to sign for the remainder of the season after his contract expires on Sunday.
The Jazz also have one two-way roster spot open after waiving forward Malik Fitts earlier this month. Utah will surely want to add another perimeter player, if only for depth purposes.
How Ingles' injury affects Utah's trade deadline
So far, we've focused on how Utah can fill in for Ingles. The problem with the timing of his injury is that the Jazz surely were hoping to do better than just avoid backsliding -- they want to improve their team at the deadline to avoid the defensive issues that popped up in last year's playoff loss to the LA Clippers.
Since losing to the Rockets in the opening round of the 2019 playoffs while struggling to score, the Jazz have taken advantage of Rudy Gobert's rim protection to make a series of moves that strengthened their offense at the expense of perimeter defense. Those tradeoffs were exposed when the Clippers went small and dragged Gobert away from his familiar role as a backstop near the basket.
Similar issues have come up against top opposition so far this season. Utah has yet to win a game against any of the three teams ahead of the Jazz in the West standings, most of which have come in the recent stretch where the team has played without both Gobert and fellow All-Star Mitchell. Before that, they lost home games to the Golden State Warriors on New Year's Day and the Memphis Grizzlies in late November while at full strength.
To add a rotation-caliber wing, Utah would almost certainly have to make a challenge trade involving a member of the current rotation given the lack of matching salary elsewhere on the roster (none of the Jazz's players outside their top-nine rotation makes more than $2 million) and depleted draft picks (Utah can't trade a first-rounder until at least 2026).
Frankly, Ingles was the most logical candidate for such a trade given his age (34) and expiring contract. His injury will make it more challenging for the Jazz to make an impact move prior to the deadline.
Ingles' injury creates an uncertain free-agency outlook
Based on Ingles' age, this summer was probably his last chance to sign a lucrative, multi-year deal in free agency. An injury that extends into next season will affect his ability to do so. The typical timetable for NBA players who have ACL injuries remains nearly a year, which means Ingles shouldn't be expected to return to the court until 2023.
Ideally, Ingles will pitch himself as a deadline pickup for whatever team signs him this summer, albeit without costing any players or picks in return. That team could certainly be Utah.
If Ingles wants to take a smaller, one-year "prove it" deal, remaining with the Jazz would be the most logical option, because they'd retain full Bird rights to re-sign him for more money in the 2023 offseason. We saw Miami Heat guard Victor Oladipo opt for a similar strategy when he re-signed with the Heat for the veteran's minimum last offseason.
Because his injury is more straightforward -- per Wojnarowski, he suffered no other ligament damage -- Ingles could reasonably command more than the minimum in free agency, but a smaller deal would help Utah manage its tax bill while evaluating Ingles' recovery.