Playing LeBron James at center has helped the Los Angeles Lakers stay afloat, while lifting up their offense in the absence of injured co-star Anthony Davis. What lessons can the Lakers take from that when Davis returns to the lineup?
This week's lead mailbag question delves into the numbers on the Lakers' small-ball lineups with no player taller than the 6-foot-9 James, and the biggest beneficiary of them. (Hint: That player also thrived in center-free lineups with the Houston Rockets two years ago.)
Throughout the NBA season, I answer your questions about the latest, most interesting topics in basketball. You can tweet me directly at @kpelton, tweet your questions using the hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to peltonmailbag@gmail.com.
This week's mailbag also considers the statistical impact of the hundreds of players entering the NBA's health and safety protocols over the past month, leading to depleted lineups for teams across the league, as well as the Golden State Warriors' curiously poor free throw shooting and what role it could play in the team's pursuit of a fourth championship in the Stephen Curry-Draymond Green era.
"LeBron at center appears to have rejuvenated the stagnant Los Angeles Lakers offense. What can the Lakers take from James' time at the 5 and apply it to Davis, or could we see a scenario where AD and LeBron swap positions?"
-- Marcus
When Davis went down with a knee sprain on Dec. 17, the Lakers ranked 24th in the NBA in offensive rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Since then, they've improved to 11th without one of their stars, and lineups with James at center have undoubtedly been key.
With James on the court, the Lakers' 118 offensive rating in that span ranks in the 87th percentile leaguewide (among players with at least 100 minutes since Dec. 18) based on analysis of data from NBA Advanced Stats, and nearly all of those minutes have come with James at "center." (He's played just 12% of his minutes since then with either Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan.)
I don't think calling James the center is key to those lineups. Carmelo Anthony is as likely to guard and be guarded by the opposing center, after all, though James is clearly the best rim protector on the court. Instead, it's more about Howard and Jordan not being on the court, putting more shooting on it and opening things up for the Lakers' offense and particularly Russell Westbrook.
Similar to what happened during his lone season with the Rockets, Westbrook has been more effective the smaller (and better shooting) the lineups around him get. In 249 minutes with James at center, Westbrook has boosted his true shooting percentage from .519 overall to a hyper-efficient .624.
Given the way he has shot this season (just 18% on 3-point attempts, worst among players with at least 50, and a middling 39% on 2-point attempts outside the paint), Davis might not stretch the court as much as Melo and the other Lakers frontcourt options he'll be replacing when he returns (Trevor Ariza and Stanley Johnson). Still, Davis has to be accounted for on the perimeter in a way that Howard and Jordan never will.
Additionally, Davis gives the Lakers' center-less lineups a greater chance of competing defensively. As well as the Lakers have scored with James in the middle, they've been predictably porous on defense, ranking in the 20th percentile in defensive rating with James on the court since AD went down. As a result, lineups with Davis at center and James on the court have about as good a net rating (plus-4.1 per 100 possessions) as those with James in the middle (plus-4.4).
Add it up, and the logical conclusion seems to be the Lakers should continue phasing out their centers entirely in favor of small ball, particularly now that Ariza is back and they've added Johnson to give them more options to fill out such lineups.
That seems to be the direction the Lakers' front office is headed. ESPN's Brian Windhorst reported earlier this week on NBA Today that the team is looking to move Jordan to clear a roster spot while reducing their luxury tax bill. Retaining Howard for potential playoff matchups against dominant centers would be reasonable, but otherwise, the Lakers should be leaning on AD and LeBron at center.
"How do you adjust/evaluate stats this year in light of all the players in health and safety protocols?"
-- Trevor
For the most part, I'm not sure the impact is significant enough to require adjustment. For all the problems it creates, the beauty of the NBA's 82-game schedule is it's a big enough sample that a few weeks of uneven competition ultimately won't make a huge difference. Additionally, though the timing of the impact the COVID-19 spread had on the NBA was unusual, the magnitude of it wasn't necessarily out of the ordinary.
To measure the impact, I've been looking at the seven-day average percentage of minutes played by the top five players on each team in terms of minutes per game. Over the course of the season, that typically fluctuates between 50% and 60% of minutes, depending on health.
That mark did drop substantially in the past few weeks, as you might imagine, bottoming out around 42% for games played between Dec. 26 and New Year's Day. Yet that's still higher than we typically see during the final week of the regular season, when teams rest players strategically in anticipation of either the playoffs or the lottery. The same mark has fallen below 40% in the final week of each of the past three regular seasons.
The good news is it's already headed back up, with fewer players subject to health and safety protocols because of shorter self-isolation periods and a degree of immunity within the NBA. Much like the final week of the regular season, I'm hopeful the past couple of weeks will be a blip in a long schedule.
I will say stretches like these are reasons to prefer player value metrics that incorporate a version of adjusted plus-minus, which naturally accounts for the quality of players on the court at any given time in a way box score stats don't.
"The Golden State Warriors are currently in the NBA's top five in FG% (47%) and just outside it in 3P% (36%) but in the bottom 5 in FT% (75%). Given how free throws play a crucial part in the playoffs, which past champions have won with the worst regular-season FT%?"
-- Reggio Fox, New Zealand
I wouldn't say accurate foul shooting is so important to winning in the playoffs. If we look back over the past decade of champions, we do see a handful of top-five teams at the free throw line (three, including the Warriors in 2017-18, when they had the NBA's best percentage) but also three in the bottom 10. Two years ago, the Lakers won the title after shooting 73% in the regular season, good for 28th in the league.
The lowest free throw percentages for champions belong, unsurprisingly, to teams with Wilt Chamberlain and Shaquille O'Neal at center. Chamberlain's 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers made just 68% of their free throws, decimal points worse than O'Neal's 2000-01 Lakers.
The other two Lakers teams from the O'Neal-led three-peat are also in the bottom six, having twice been the league's worst foul-shooting team during the regular season, along with O'Neal's 2005-06 Miami Heat. (The last team in this group: the 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs.)
Golden State is unusual in struggling at the line despite the team's leading foul shooter (Curry) being one of the league's leaders in free throw percentage (92%). Aside from Curry and Jordan Poole (89%), no other Warriors player with more than 35 foul attempts is hitting them at better than a 70% clip. That's particularly interesting in the case of Andrew Wiggins, whose dramatic improvement as a 3-point shooter in Golden State (a career-high 43% this season) hasn't been matched at the line (69%).
Still, history suggests free throw shooting is unlikely to hold the Warriors back in the playoffs.