What does NBA All-Star guard Chris Paul's thumb injury mean for the Phoenix Suns' title chances?
Just before Sunday's NBA All-Star Game, the Suns shared that an MRI revealed Paul suffered an avulsion fracture of his right thumb during Wednesday's win over the LA Clippers. After playing token minutes on Sunday, Paul will be sidelined at least six to eight weeks before being reevaluated.
The timing of the injury puts the rest of Paul's regular season in jeopardy. We're seven weeks away from the final day of the season, and the start of the playoffs is less than eight weeks away.
Although Phoenix's 6.5-game lead over the Golden State Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs should be safe, Paul may not return until the start of the playoffs, or even after they've begun.
How will the Suns handle Paul's absence the rest of the regular season? And what can we expect from Paul when he's able to return? Let's break down the impact of the injury.
The Suns without CP3
Since joining the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2019, Paul has been remarkably durable. He's missed just four regular-season games since then and has played all 58 for the Suns so far in 2021-22. Yet we have seen Phoenix come through without him in a key spot when Paul missed the first two games of last year's Western Conference finals after testing positive for COVID-19. The Suns won both games at home to take a 2-0 lead on the Clippers in a series they ultimately won 4-2.
Backup point guard Cameron Payne delivered in a big way in Paul's absence last year, combining for 40 points and 18 assists in the two starts. Phoenix will have to hope Payne can return after the All-Star break, having not played since Jan. 22 because of a wrist sprain.
Behind Payne, the Suns have an experienced third-stringer in Elfrid Payton, who started all 63 games he played last season for the New York Knicks. Payton hasn't been effective in a part-time role this season, shooting a career-low 41% on 2-point attempts.
Payton could be pushed for playing time by newcomer Aaron Holiday, acquired from the Washington Wizards at the trade deadline in a deal that sent cash considerations in return. Though Holiday is not as effective a playmaker, he's a more dangerous shooter, having hit 37% of his career 3-point attempts. In fact, Holiday has made as many triples in three games with Phoenix as Payton has in 38 games (four each).
Because none of Paul's replacements are elite shot-creators, much of the team's playmaking load will likely fall on the shoulders of fellow All-Star guard Devin Booker. Booker's assist average per 36 minutes this season has gone from 4.3 with Paul to 5.8 without him, per NBA Advanced Stats -- albeit at the cost of his scoring average dropping from 27.4 points per 36 to 25.5.
Phoenix's No. 1 seed is likely secure
The way the Suns have kept their foot on the gas all season will pay off now. Phoenix's 6.5-game lead in the West will be difficult, if not impossible, for the Golden State Warriors to make up, particularly with the return date for All-Star Draymond Green uncertain. It's actually possible the Memphis Grizzlies, eight games back in the standings, could be as much of a threat.
Projections from FiveThirtyEight and ESPN's Basketball Power Index both have Golden State and Memphis finishing with the same average number of wins -- 54 (BPI) or 55 (FiveThirtyEight).
Those marks should be easy for the Suns, who already have racked up 48 wins, to hit with 24 games remaining on their schedule. Phoenix's remaining slate also looks favorable, with nine of those 24 games against teams currently outside the play-in tournament in either conference and another six against teams trending toward the play-in. Ideally, the Suns would have the top spot all but secured before they face the Warriors and Grizzlies in back-to-back road games on March 30 and April 1.
Losing Paul could cost Phoenix a chance at the best record in franchise history. The Suns won 62 games in both 1992-93 (when they lost in the NBA Finals to the Chicago Bulls) and 2004-05 (when they lost in the Western Conference finals to the San Antonio Spurs). To surpass those two teams, Phoenix would need to go at least 15-9 over the last 24 games of the season.
Should we expect 100 percent playoff CP3?
Given their relatively safe spot in the standings, the most important question for the Suns is whether Paul will be at full strength for the playoffs. A previous thumb injury gives reason for optimism. In January 2017, Paul suffered a UCL tear in his left thumb and required surgery.
Expected to miss six to eight weeks, Paul was back in 5½ and showed little rust after a 4-of-18 shooting performance in his second game. (Paul still had 17 assists in that one.) He shot 48% from the field and 43% on 3s over the final two months of the 2016-17 regular season, in line with his overall shooting percentage and a slight improvement beyond the arc.
This is a different injury to his non-dominant hand, of course, so it's not entirely clear Paul will recover as quickly or as well as he did five years ago. If Paul does, however, the timing of his injury could be a hidden blessing for Phoenix. Paul will be fresh for the postseason after getting a relatively short break between last season's grueling schedule and the start of this year.
Losing their leader and All-Star point guard for an extended stretch is certainly the biggest bump in a road that's been relatively smooth for the Suns coming off their loss in the 2022 Finals. If Paul's return goes as planned and he comes back looking like his usual self, the injury shouldn't set back Phoenix's pursuit of a long-awaited NBA championship.