What does Kevin Durant's MCL sprain mean for him and the Brooklyn Nets?
A day after Durant left the Nets' win over the New Orleans Pelicans with a knee injury, an MRI revealed a sprain to his left MCL. Sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that Brooklyn anticipates a four- to six-week timetable for Durant's recovery, consistent with a Grade 2 sprain.
Durant should be back in plenty of time for the playoffs, but his absence limits the number of opportunities for the Nets to see him play with All-Star teammates James Harden and Kyrie Irving. The trio had played just two games together since Irving rejoined Brooklyn while eligible to play in road games, including a 26-point win in Chicago over the Eastern Conference-leading Bulls most recently.
With 11 of their next 14 games on the road, the Nets were anticipating an extended look at their three stars. Instead, as was the case during much of the 2020-21 regular season after the addition of Harden, Brooklyn's trio will instead give the team cover to deal with one of them being absent.
Let's break down the implications.
Nets stars rarely available at same time
The degree to which absences for Durant, Harden and Irving have been staggered since Harden debuted in Brooklyn one year ago is almost uncanny. Of the 101 regular-season games the Nets have played in that span, Brooklyn has had all three stars for just 10. Just twice have none of the three been available. Brooklyn has typically been down one star (66 of 101 games) and occasionally two of the three (the remaining 23).
Even in the 2021 playoffs, the Nets only had all three stars together for their first-round series win over the Boston Celtics. Harden suffered a reinjury to one of his hamstrings a minute into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Milwaukee Bucks and returned ahead of schedule after Irving was lost for the series with an ankle sprain.
To some extent, of course, that's the value of having three stars. Brooklyn should be able to survive Durant's absence because Harden and Irving are able to pick up more of the load. Even in the handful of home games between now and the All-Star break where Irving will be ineligible to play because of his vaccination status (five total), Harden alone gives the Nets a chance to win. Brooklyn is 7-4 in games where he's the lone member of the big three available.
At the same time, it's surely frustrating to Nets coach Steve Nash that he won't get a real look at his full complement of stars until the final quarter of the season. Assuming Durant is able to return after the All-Star break, which is optimistic but not aggressive, Brooklyn will have 10 remaining road games to build lineups and rotations around the stars with Irving eligible.
The concern is probably less about how Durant, Harden and Irving fit together -- they're good enough and got enough experience last season to figure that out -- and more about how to complement them. Nash has been rapidly toggling through lineups, exacerbated by Irving yo-yoing in and out of the lineup and other absences. Nash last used the same starting five more than two games in a row in a stretch ending Dec. 7, just before a number of Nets players began entering health and safety protocols.
Seeding not a primary concern for Brooklyn
It's tough to say how much Durant's absence might affect the Nets' eventual spot in the playoffs because the East standings are so crowded at the moment. Just 2.5 games separate the first-place Bulls from the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers, tied for fifth in terms of games back. Realistically, this group is likely to sort itself out at some point, particularly if midseason surprises Chicago and Cleveland experience any slippage.
Brooklyn, currently second at a half-game behind the Bulls, is almost certainly safe to make the top six and avoid the play-in. The Nets enjoy a 4.5-game cushion there over the seventh-place Charlotte Hornets. Aside from that, seeding is unlikely to be Nash's primary focus.
After all, if Irving remains unavailable for home games in the playoffs, starting series on the road might not be the worst thing for Brooklyn. It's possible the ideal finishing position for the Nets ends up being the No. 3 seed, which would allow them to duck a more difficult first-round matchup but leave them as the likely lower seed in matchups against the other East powers.
Wherever the Nets are in the standings in four to six weeks, seeding alone shouldn't be a reason to rush Durant back.
Precedent for Durant's return from MCL sprain
This isn't the first time that Durant has suffered an MCL sprain midseason. Back in February 2017, during his first season with the Golden State Warriors, Durant was relieved to avoid a more serious injury when he went down early in a game against the Washington Wizards. Diagnosed then with a Grade 2 MCL sprain, Durant missed a little more than five weeks before returning during the final week of the regular season.
Despite another injury (a minor calf strain) that sidelined him for two games during the opening round of the playoffs, Durant was his usual superstar self as the Warriors put together one of the most dominant playoff runs on record. Golden State started the postseason 15-0 before losing Game 4 of the NBA Finals to the Cleveland Cavaliers, settling for a 16-1 finish that is the best winning percentage ever in a single playoffs.
Individually, Durant posted a career-high .683 true shooting percentage during the 2017 playoffs and was named Finals MVP after averaging 35.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 5.4 APG head-to-head against LeBron James.
The timing of Durant's injury this year likely knocks him out of the MVP race. Even a best-case scenario of a return in four weeks would mean missing 13 games on top of the six Durant has already sat out. No player has won MVP while missing more than 11 games since Bill Walton in 1976-77. With so many other contenders, it's not realistic for Durant to overcome being out of the lineup so long.
Nonetheless, the bigger trophies of a championship and a third Finals MVP remain in play for Brooklyn and Durant. A short-term absence shouldn't do much to alter that pursuit.