Who had the best 2017 NBA draft relative to the picks they held?
We see plenty of attempts to answer that question subjectively. This version is unique because I look at the value teams got from their picks based on my consensus draft projections -- now updated to factor in where players were actually drafted.
So, based on my projections, who were the winners and losers Thursday night? Let's take a look.
Best-rated draft
1. Los Angeles Lakers (plus-1.8 WARP)
It's just one night, but this looks like a great first draft for the new Lakers front office helmed by Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka.
The Lakers got off to a strong start by taking the top prospect in my projections, Lonzo Ball (plus-1.2 wins above replacement player), with the No. 2 overall pick. Ball's projection is so strong he actually had the highest value over expectation of anyone in the draft.
Yet the Lakers didn't stop there. While No. 27 pick Kyle Kuzma (minus-0.7) did not rate well by my model, the Lakers did well to turn the 28th pick into two players who did. At No. 30, the Lakers got what I rated the night's fourth-best value with Josh Hart (plus-0.8), and the 42nd pick yielded Thomas Bryant (plus-0.5).
2. Denver Nuggets (plus-1.4 WARP)
The Nuggets often seem to work off rankings similar to my projections. They topped these rankings in 2014, when they landed Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Last year, Juancho Hernangomez rated as the fourth-best value.
This time around, much of that can be explained by Denver nabbing Iowa State point guard Monte Morris (plus-1.1) with the 51st overall pick. Morris ranked third in my stats-only projections, though he never rated nearly that well by the consensus model because he figured to go early in the second round.
In addition, the Nuggets got good value in Syracuse forward Tyler Lydon (plus-0.4) after trading down from No. 13 to No. 24, a deal that also added Utah Jazz forward Trey Lyles. (Denver likes stretch-4s with the initials T.L., apparently.)
3. Brooklyn Nets (plus-0.9 WARP)
Because No. 22 pick Jarrett Allen (minus-0.3) actually rated as a slight overdraft, this is entirely about the 57th overall pick, FC Barcelona forward Aleksandar Vezenkov (plus-1.1).
Vezenkov ranked 24th in my consensus projections, making him the night's third-best value.
4. Houston Rockets (plus-0.8 WARP)
The Rockets kept only one of their two second-round picks, having previously traded their first-rounder to the Lakers in the Lou Williams deal.
With that No. 43 pick, they landed a player rated 12th in my stats-only projections, Zalgiris forward Isaiah Hartenstein. During the draft broadcast, ESPN's international expert, Fran Fraschilla, noted that Hartenstein could have been a lottery pick had he waited until next year to enter.
5. Toronto Raptors (plus-0.7 WARP)
Likewise, the Raptors had only the No. 23 pick. They stopped Indiana forward OG Anunoby's fall, getting a player ranked 10th in my consensus projections. Assuredly, teams were concerned about Anunoby's recovery from a torn ACL that ended his sophomore season prematurely. They also may have been concerned about Anunoby's underdeveloped offensive game.
Still, plenty of prospects with less defensive potential than Anunoby and similar offensive limitations have gone in the lottery. In time, Anunoby should be a quality addition to a Toronto team that has long been on the lookout for wing defenders with strength.
Lowest-rated draft
Note: The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards are not included in these rankings because they did not make any picks in this draft.
28. Sacramento Kings (minus-2.3 WARP)
The Kings had a fascinating draft. When I tweeted the Lakers were having my favorite draft of anyone, Sacramento was the primary alternative in my mentions. Yet the Kings rate at the bottom of the list.
I can understand the disconnect. I liked their trade down from No. 10 to No. 15 and No. 20 -- a move that added an extra 0.7 WARP to their expected value -- and thought Harry Giles (minus-0.3) was well worth the risk at No. 20 in a way that his projection can't capture.
In addition to Giles, No. 5 pick De'Aaron Fox (minus-0.6) rated as an overdraft, while 15th pick Justin Jackson had the largest negative differential (minus-1.0) for any pick with positive value. Even second-round pick Frank Mason III (minus-0.5) rated as a negative by these projections.
Ultimately, excitement about Sacramento's draft night probably reflects the pick capital it amassed -- the most expected WARP of any team -- more than how well the Kings picked.
27. Boston Celtics (minus-1.1 WARP)
Consider the Celtics the anti-Nuggets. It's clear at times that their rankings are wildly different from my projections, never more so than last season, when they took Jaylen Brown -- whose stats-only projection was for negative WARP -- at No. 3. I wouldn't blame you for trusting Danny Ainge's judgment after that.
Jayson Tatum's minus-0.6 projection wasn't nearly so poor, but he ranked sixth in my consensus projections, several spots below where he was actually taken.
No. 38 pick Semi Ojeleye (minus-0.4) had a negative consensus projection, though I like his 3-and-D skill set where Boston picked him.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (minus-0.9)
The Thunder surprised everyone by taking Tulsa native Terrance Ferguson at No. 21 after Ferguson spent a year out of high school playing in the Australian NBL.
Ferguson's translated statistics were dismal, but I'm willing to discount them to some extent because of the unusual transition he faced playing overseas. I don't think Ferguson was a huge reach where he went, though I think other wings (Anunoby and Ojeleye) are more certain contributors.
25. Milwaukee Bucks (minus-0.6)
Both of Milwaukee's two draft picks rated worse than expected.
No. 17 pick D.J. Wilson (minus-0.4) showed promise as a pick-and-pop option and pick-and-roll defender at Michigan, but poor defensive rebounding limited his projection. No. 46 pick Sterling Brown rated barely positive because of his low usage rate and age (22).
24. Charlotte Hornets (minus-0.6)
While most mock drafts had him going earlier than the 11th pick, Kentucky guard Malik Monk ranked just 19th in my consensus projections.
The Hornets appeared to get worse value in the second round with Florida State wing Dwayne Bacon, whose minus-1.5 stats-only WARP projection was fourth-worst among the 60 players who were drafted.