Six teams found especially good value with at least one of their picks in Thursday's NBA draft, including the Celtics and the Lakers.
Others teams reached too far for players they liked. According to my analysis, four teams -- also including Boston -- may not have gotten enough return from their picks.
My stats-based projections help provide perspective on the best and worst moves in the draft.
Comparing the projections for this year's picks to the average projection for each draft slot provides a way to determine a player's value relative to where he was selected. That gives us a positive or negative "difference" for each player selected.
A higher (positive) difference suggests that a team got good value. A lower (negative) difference suggests that a team could have made a better choice.
Best lottery value
Dragan Bender (No. 4)
Phoenix Suns
Projection: 2.8
Actual value: 3.6
Difference: plus-0.8 (6th)
Last year, a talented European big man went No. 4 -- and now Kristaps Porzingis looks like a great pick 12 months later. Bender is hoping to follow in Porzingis' footsteps in that regard. While they have quite different skill sets, Bender projected about as well by my model as Porzingis.
At 18, he's farther away from contributing in the NBA than Porzingis, but don't be surprised if Bender shows flashes -- even in limited action -- as a rookie.
Best first-round values
Juan Hernangomez (15)
Denver Nuggets
Projection: 1.4
Actual value: 2.3
Difference: plus-0.9 (4th)
The Nuggets' projections for international big men are apparently similar to mine. In 2014, Denver drafted centers Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic. Both were among my top 10 prospects, and both panned out wonderfully as rookies (Nurkic in 2014-15 and Jokic in 2015-16).
With that spot covered, this time around Denver went for stretch-4 Hernangomez, whose ability to space the floor should fit well with either big man.
Ante Zizic (23)
Boston Celtics
Projection: 1.3
Actual value: 2.0
Difference: plus-0.7 (8th)
The Celtics didn't get great value with all of their selections (see below), but Zizic looks like a strong pick with the last of Boston's three first-rounders.
Like Jokic and Nurkic, Zizic was effective in the Adriatic League at a young age (he turned 19 during last season), suggesting he should be able to contribute in the NBA when he joins the Celtics.
Second-round steals
Zhou Qi (43)
Houston Rockets
Projection: 0.1
Actual value: 2.3
Difference: plus-2.3 (1st)
As I noted in my draft rankings, the 7-foot-2 Zhou was the biggest mystery of the draft, starting with his age. Even if we project the Chinese big man as older than his listed 20, however, his impressive stats in China would mark him as one of the draft's best values, given that Houston got him in the middle of the second round.
It's no surprise the Rockets would take a chance on Zhou, given their use of analytics and their heavy focus on China thanks to Yao Ming. Houston signed a pair of Chinese Basketball Association stars this season (Michael Beasley and Andrew Goudelock) and presumably is comfortable about how to translate Zhou's stats to the NBA.
Zhou won't come over until 2017-18, but he could be a steal.
Ivica Zubac (32)
L.A. Lakers
Projection: 0.6
Actual value: 1.6
Difference: plus-1.0 (2nd)
I'm not quite as high on Zubac as his statistical projections would suggest, since they were compiled in a short stint in the Serbian League after he joined Mega Vizura midway through last season.
Nonetheless, getting a 7-footer with Zubac's offensive potential in the second round is a coup for the Lakers, whose depth chart at center is essentially empty since Roy Hibbert and backups Tarik Black and Robert Sacre are free agents.
Patrick McCaw (38)
Golden State Warriors
Projection: 0.4
Actual value: 1.3
Difference: plus-0.9 (3rd)
The Warriors took some of the profit they turned from playing seven-game series in both the conference finals and NBA Finals and invested it in McCaw, buying the 38th pick from the Milwaukee Bucks.
I've been thinking of McCaw as Corey Brewer with better ballhandling, but now that he's in Golden State, a lesser version of Andre Iguodala might be a better comparison. Since Iguodala, 32, is entering the final season of his contract, the Warriors could use such a player.
Tyler Ulis (34)
Phoenix Suns
Projection: 0.5
Actual value: 1.4
Difference: plus-0.9 (4th)
Based on pure talent, Ulis was clearly a first-round pick, and probably good enough to go in the top 20, despite his small stature.
His drop to the second round appears to be largely a function of concerns that he might need hip surgery. In the second round, the possibility of losing him for a year isn't a huge worry.
The Suns have both Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight at point guard (for now at least), but have preferred a pure point guard off the bench, a role that veteran Ronnie Price played last season. Ulis can fill that slot.
Best undrafted players
Fred VanVleet | Wichita State | Projection: 1.7
VanVleet had the best stats-only projection of any NCAA player by my model, though he didn't fare nearly as well by other college translations.
Still, VanVleet looks like a capable backup in the NBA because of his sure-handed playmaking.
He told his hometown Rockford (Illinois) Register Star that he passed on offers to be drafted in the second round and stashed in the D-League. Instead, according to DraftExpress, VanVleet will play summer league ball for the Toronto Raptors.
Gary Payton II | Oregon State | Projection: 1.2
Payton going undrafted was more of a surprise. Despite his advanced age and limited offensive skills, the son of the Hall of Fame point guard projects as a strong perimeter defender in the NBA.
Apparently, the younger Payton may yet find a place in the league. Chris Haynes of the Plain Dealer reported soon after the draft that Payton will sign a three-year deal with the Rockets.
Worst lottery values
Jaylen Brown (3)
Boston Celtics
Expected value: 3.1
Projection: 1.0
Difference: minus-2.1 (last)
The stats-only component of Brown's projection is actually minus-0.5 WARP, making him one of the least productive prospects taken in the top 10 in recent memory.
In fact, in the last 10 years, Joe Alexander and Austin Rivers are the only other top-10 picks with negative projections.
There are certainly reasons to believe Brown will outperform that projection, since he's highly regarded by scouts and was more productive at the prep level. Still, I don't think such speculation justifies taking him over Bender.
Taurean Prince (12)
Atlanta Hawks
Expected value: 1.6
Projection: 0.9
Difference: minus-0.7 (7th worst)
Technically, Prince is still a member of the Utah Jazz, since the three-team trade that sent his rights to Atlanta can't be completed until after the NBA free-agent moratorium concludes on July 7.
As the return for the Hawks giving up Jeff Teague in that deal, Prince's projections are underwhelming. Prince has potential as a 3-and-D role player in Hawks University, and he is reminiscent of former Atlanta forward DeMarre Carroll.
But Prince was widely considered a late first-rounder, and his stats-only projection was relatively weak even there.
Worst first-round values
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (24)
Philadelphia 76ers
Expected value: 0.9
Projection: minus-0.1
Difference: minus-0.9 (4th worst)
Luwawu actually went a little lower than I took him in my Grade A mock draft (No. 21 to Atlanta, filling the same role Prince actually will). Luwawu's best skill -- individual defense -- isn't captured in the box score, so he is likely to outperform his projection.
Nonetheless, the Sixers passed on McCaw, who has similar tools but has been far more productive to date.
Damian Jones (30)
Golden State Warriors
Expected value: 0.6
Projection: minus-0.2
Difference: minus-0.8 (5th worst)
In three years at Vanderbilt, Jones put up decent-looking stats, but he's a poor defensive rebounder and his weak steal rate is a negative indicator. (Yes, even for a center, steal rate is revealing.)
So he projects below replacement level in the NBA. Worse yet, Jones is coming off surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle.
The Warriors took Kevon Looney last year even though he needed shoulder surgery, which eventually cost him most of his rookie season. At least Looney was a good value where Golden State took him. That's not so clear with Jones.