Who should each team draft? The answers may surprise you.
My statistical projections are very different from the scouting consensus. So you might call this a shock draft more than a mock draft. Hang on for the ride.
Each year, Insider's Chad Ford conducts his Grade A mock draft -- what he'd do in the shoes of each GM on draft night. For the first time, I'm doing the same.
But where Ford's version tends to look a lot like what might actually happen on draft night, my personal rankings (influenced heavily by my stats-based projections) are far from the norm.
Here are Ford's four ground rules, which I also followed.
1. At each slot, I make a pick in the best interest of only the team with the pick. I won't pass on a player at No. 4 just because I like the team fit better at No. 5.
2. No trades unless they're already completed.
3. Team needs are taken into account, but value can and often will supersede need. If there's clearly a best player available on the board, I won't pass on him just to fill a need.
4. I'm not reporting or predicting who will go where. This is my opinion about what should happen -- not what will happen.
After the team-by-team breakdown, you can get the full first round below.
Philadelphia 76ers
No. 1: Ben Simmons, F, LSU
No. 24: Malik Beasley, SG, Florida State
No. 26: Zhou Qi, PF, Xinjiang Guanghui
Like Ford, I'd put Simmons alone in Tier 1, making him the only choice for Philadelphia with the No. 1 overall pick.
The Sixers' next two selections are a bit more interesting. A two-way wing like Patrick McCaw would be ideal, but the most promising players of that type are long off the board in this mock, so Philadelphia instead goes for a shooter with athleticism in Beasley before stashing Zhou. Yes, I know, not another big man, but by the time Zhou arrives in the U.S. -- let alone is ready to play -- the roster may look much different.
Los Angeles Lakers
No. 2: Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke
No. 32: Diamond Stone, C, Maryland
In a vacuum, I tend to prefer Dragan Bender to Ingram as a prospect. However, I'd put both in the same tier, allowing team need to come into consideration. And Ingram makes more sense than Bender for the Lakers.
A wing defender who can shoot is a bigger need for L.A. than a power forward. Bender might eventually play next to Julius Randle, but I don't see that next year. More importantly, the Lakers generally want to improve quickly so as to attract top free agents next summer, and I think Ingram would give them a better shot at that than Bender.
Boston Celtics
No 3: Dragan Bender, PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv
No. 16: Chinanu Onuaku, C, Louisville
No. 23: Georgios Papagiannis, C, Panathinaikos
No. 31: Dejounte Murray, PG, Washington
No. 35: Guerschon Yabusele, F, Rouen
No. 45: Nikola Ivanovic, PG, Mega Leks
No. 51: Petr Cornelie, PF, Le Mans
No. 58: Gracin Bakumanya, PF, Antibes
Because I can't trade, the Celtics' eight picks complicate this exercise. As a result, I basically had Boston grab any international prospect with a modicum of potential in the hopes that a few of them pan out as prospects.
The international influx starts with Bender at No. 3, although he's not a stash candidate. I have Bender in a different tier than anyone else remaining on the board, making him an obvious pick for the Celtics. Although I don't love the idea of drafting multiple big men, I think Onuaku's rim protection and playmaking fill bigger needs than anyone else available at pick 16.
Then it's all about upside for Boston. The 7-foot-2 Papagiannis impressed in limited action in Greece at age 18. Murray gives the Celtics more size in the backcourt, and by the top of the second round, his potential outweighs the risk that he never develops as a shooter and decision-maker. Of the rest, the most interesting pick is Ivanovic, one of the highest-rated players not in Ford's Top 100.
Phoenix Suns
No. 4: Juan Hernangomez, PF, Estudiantes
No. 13: Jaylen Brown, SF, California
No. 28: Ivica Zubac, C, Mega Vizura
No. 34: Caris LeVert, SG, Michigan
So far, the draft has played out more or less as it actually might. Things go off the rails here.
Again, I'm not saying there's any chance the Suns would actually draft Hernangomez fourth. If Bender is off the board, Marquese Chriss would probably be the pick.
But I tend to prefer Hernangomez as a prospect because while he's not nearly the athlete Chriss is, he has a more proven track record as a shooter and is a substantially better defender. Because Phoenix has little need for the guards ahead of Hernangomez on my board (but in the same tier), I'd take him fourth.
By contrast, Brown is a lot more likely to go before the fourth pick than still be on the board at pick 13. My stats-only projection for Brown is one of the worst for any player in Ford's Top 100 because he scored so inefficiently.
Brown is actually projected to rate below replacement level over the course of his rookie contract. The track record for freshmen projected for negative wins above replacement player (WARP) is poor -- Festus Ezeli and Meyers Leonard are probably the best players in this group. Other one-and-done lottery picks with negative WARP projections include Shabazz Muhammad and Austin Rivers.
That all noted, I'm swayed by the fact that Cal played two non-spacing big men alongside Brown, giving him little room to operate. Brown actually projected well in Layne Vashro's model based on his pre-college All-Star appearances (an admittedly tiny sample), and analyst Nate Duncan has called him a top-three prospect.
At some point, well after Brown will actually go, that potential is impossible to ignore. I like Brown better in an up-tempo system, where he can ideally play as a small-ball 4 rather than a non-spacing 3.
With their third pick of the first round, the Suns will probably look to stash an international prospect, and Zubac has shown some potential in small samples. Given how injuries have limited LeVert's potential, I love the idea of Phoenix setting him up with the team's renowned medical staff.
Minnesota Timberwolves
No. 5: Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky
In my version of the draft, the Timberwolves get their choice between the top two guards on the board. I like Murray's fit better because he can comfortably play off the ball alongside Ricky Rubio or run the offense when teamed with Zach LaVine.
Both LaVine and Rubio have the defensive versatility to match up with the better opposing guard, allowing Minnesota to hide Murray.
New Orleans Pelicans
No. 6: Kris Dunn, PG, Providence
No. 39: Malcolm Brogdon, SG, Virginia
No. 40: Jarrod Uthoff, PF, Iowa
New Orleans GM Dell Demps talked earlier this week about upgrading the Pelicans' defense as a priority, and I think this draft accomplishes that.
Dunn should be a good defensive point guard from day one, and I think he could play alongside Jrue Holiday, as both players have enough size to defend most shooting guards.
Brogdon is perhaps the best wing defender in the draft and has a chance to become the 3-and-D role player New Orleans desperately needs on the wing. I view Uthoff as an upgrade on incumbent Luke Babbitt in the combo forward role off the bench.
Denver Nuggets
No. 7: Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington
No. 15: Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Anadolu Efes
No. 19: Skal Labissiere, PF, Kentucky
No. 53: Rade Zagorac, SF, Mega Vizura
No. 56: Paul Zipser, SF, Bayern Munich
Loaded at center with promising youngsters Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, the Nuggets could use an athletic power forward with shooting range to play alongside them. So I had them draft a couple of such players.
As a top-five pick, Chriss is a bit of a stretch. The seventh pick more reasonably reflects his combination of potential and risk. At No. 19, Labissiere represents value too good to pass up on, and he could eventually play alongside Chriss if Denver moves one of the centers.
The Nuggets have done well going international in recent years, which could give them more comfort going with Korkmaz to add shooting a year or two down the road. There'd be no rush to bring him over because they're adding two other first-round picks.
Though both Zagorac and Zipser project below replacement level, by the end of the second round, they're reasonable lottery tickets.
Sacramento Kings
No. 8: Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
No. 59: Isaiah Whitehead, PG, Seton Hall
Having struck out on recent lottery guards Jimmer Fredette and Nik Stauskas and gotten mixed results from 2013 pick Ben McLemore, the Kings still have a glaring need at shooting guard. Hield looks like a better bet to succeed in the NBA because he's a more reliable catch-and-shoot option than Fredette or McLemore and a better athlete than the limited Stauskas.
With guards Rajon Rondo and Seth Curry both free agents, Whitehead gives Sacramento another option at the position.
Toronto Raptors (via Knicks)
No. 9: Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga
No. 27: Thon Maker, C, Athlete Institute
I think Sabonis could fill a couple of needs for Toronto. In the short term, the Raptors may be looking for a backup to Jonas Valanciunas in the middle with Bismack Biyombo almost certain to leave in free agency.
However, the ninth pick seems too high to draft a player like Jakob Poeltl, who is strictly a center. Sabonis could also play power forward and would be a nice high-post complement for Valanciunas.
Maker, who prepped in Canada, could develop nearby with Toronto's D-League affiliate alongside the Raptors' other young prospects.
Milwaukee Bucks
No. 10: Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah
No. 36: Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse
No. 38: Ben Bentil, PF, Providence
With big-ticket free agent Greg Monroe proving a poor fit for Milwaukee's starting five, the Bucks need a long-term option in the middle. Poeltl has the athleticism to switch at times in Jason Kidd's system and is a skilled offensive player.
I'm not on board with Richardson's rapid rise to the middle of the first round, but by the early second round, his tools and shooting stroke make him a reasonable 3-and-D candidate.
Bentil could be an effective NBA stretch 4, and Milwaukee has yet to replace Jared Dudley in that role off the bench.
Orlando Magic
No. 11: Ante Zizic, C, KK Cibona
No. 41: Kay Felder, PG, Oakland
No. 47: DeAndre Bembry, SF, Saint Joseph's
I'm not convinced Nikola Vucevic is good enough defensively to be Orlando's long-term starter in the middle. The promising Zizic would give the Magic another option at center.
In the second round, Felder is the highest-rated non-center available. I'm not high on Bembry because of his relatively poor freshman season and inefficient scoring. By 47, however, his passing from the wing makes him worth a look.
Atlanta Hawks
No. 12: Wade Baldwin, PG, Vanderbilt
No. 21: Timothe Luwawu, SF, Mega Vizura
No. 44: Ron Baker, G, Wichita State
No. 54: Moussa Diagne, C, Fuenlabrada
After trading Jeff Teague to get the No. 12 pick, the Hawks are in need of a backup to Dennis Schroder and Baldwin is the only remaining player from my third tier of prospects, so he's a natural fit in Atlanta.
Luwawu has all the physical tools but needs offensive polish, so I like the idea of putting him in Hawks University's development program. No, Luwawu won't replace Kent Bazemore right away if Bazemore gets an offer in free agency too rich for Atlanta to compete against, but in time, he could be a quality role player.
Depending on how the Hawks' roster shakes out, Baker could contribute at either guard spot. Diagne is a lottery ticket.
Chicago Bulls
No. 14: Patrick McCaw, SG, UNLV
No. 48: James Webb, SF, Boise State
The Bulls add a pair of capable wing defenders to complement Jimmy Butler. McCaw is my favorite two-way role player on the wing in this draft, and his playmaking skills are a bonus. Webb defends slightly different players as a small forward who can maybe slide down to play some power forward as he fills out.
Memphis Grizzlies
No. 17: Denzel Valentine, SG, Michigan State
No. 57: Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame
Memphis has struggled to add youth to its wing rotation. The Grizzlies drafted Jordan Adams in the first round two years ago, but he recently underwent a knee-cartilage transplant that figures to keep him out for much, if not all, of 2016-17 and threatens his NBA future.
Valentine's passing would be a welcome addition to Memphis' second unit, and while the comparison to Adams is troubling, I don't think concerns about Valentine's knees are likely to be an issue in the near future.
Jackson doesn't project well by my system because of his poor freshman season and relatively weak steal numbers. He's still worth a flier late in the second round.
Detroit Pistons
No. 18: Henry Ellenson, PF, Marquette
No. 49: Alex Caruso, PG, Texas A&M
Coach Stan Van Gundy loves his stretch 4s, and though the Pistons added one at the trade deadline in Tobias Harris, they could use another, which would allow them to take advantage of Harris' ability to play small forward at times. Despite concerns about his lateral quickness and disappointing shooting at Marquette, Ellenson would be a solid pick outside the lottery.
Caruso is one of my favorite sleepers. He has enough size to defend either guard spot and is a capable playmaker who makes good decisions. Consider Caruso this year's T.J. McConnell.
Indiana Pacers
No. 20: Gary Payton II, PG, Oregon State
No. 50: Robert Carter, PF, Maryland
The Pacers like experienced players who can contribute right away, and there's a role for Payton on Indiana's second unit. Alongside either Joseph Young or Rodney Stuckey, he has enough shooting ability to play off the ball while providing a strong defensive presence in the backcourt.
Carter is the face-up power forward the Pacers have coveted, and with Solomon Hill's likely departure, Indiana needs more depth at the position. Carter would be great value if he was still around at pick 50.
Charlotte Hornets
No. 22: Fred VanVleet, PG, Wichita State
Where the Hornets go with their pick may tell us a lot about how they view free agency. I'm assuming that Charlotte will re-sign Nicolas Batum, Courtney Lee and Marvin Williams, which would make it all but impossible to bring back Jeremy Lin. (The Hornets will have to use cap space to offer Lin more than the midlevel exception, and re-signing the others would surely exhaust it.)
Although taking a backup point guard isn't a sexy use of a first-round pick, VanVleet is also the highest-rated perimeter player left on the board by my consensus projections.
Los Angeles Clippers
No. 25: Deyonta Davis, PF, Michigan State
No. 33: Taurean Prince, SF, Baylor
L.A. might be equally excited about adding a 3-and-D prospect in Prince at the top of the second round. Prince doesn't project especially well by my model because he played much worse as a sophomore than he did as a junior. Still, his frame and skill set give him a chance at NBA success.
San Antonio Spurs
No. 29: Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky
As compared to Valentine's knees, I'm a bit more concerned about Ulis' reported hip issues because I suspect they're likelier to be a problem within his rookie contract. Still, by this point Ulis is far and away the best prospect available by my consensus projections. Given the Spurs' need for dynamic playmaking at point guard, he's well worth the risk.
Golden State Warriors
No. 30: Jameel Warney, PF, Stony Brook
With Andrew Bogut entering the final season of his contract and Festus Ezeli, Marreese Speights and Anderson Varejao all free agents, the frontcourt is a natural spot for the Warriors to look with the final pick of the first round.
Warney isn't an obvious selection -- he's considered a possible second-round pick, and a power forward. But Warney's 7-foot-1 wingspan make him a capable shot-blocker at 6-foot-8, and he has a better chance of making plays on the pick-and-roll than the unskilled alternative options. So why not see whether Golden State can again strike gold with an undersized big?
Houston Rockets
No. 37: Cheick Diallo, C, Kansas
No. 43: Marcus Paige, G, North Carolina
Although Diallo's projections don't leap off the page, I could see him as a Daryl Morey pick because of Diallo's impressive pedigree as a prep recruit. At pick 37, Diallo isn't much of a risk.
I really like Paige's fit in Houston, since he could space the floor alongside James Harden while defending point guards. I'm surprised we're not hearing more about Paige, who was better than Buddy Hield as a junior before falling off during his senior year.
Utah Jazz
No. 42: Brice Johnson, PF, North Carolina
No. 52: Isaia Cordinier, SG, Denain ASC Voltaire
No. 60: Andrey Desyatnikov, C, Zenit St. Petersburg
At No. 42, Johnson is great value as a possible fourth big man. After that, the Jazz stash a couple of long shots in Cordinier and Desyatnikov.
Dallas Mavericks
No. 46: Stephen Zimmerman, C, UNLV
In a vacuum, I think Zimmerman is closer to the 30th-best prospect in the draft than the 40th. He's hurt by the supply of big men exceeding the number of teams who really need them.
Zimmerman might not be the long-term solution the Mavericks are seeking at center. That's OK -- neither is anybody else on the roster.
Brooklyn Nets
No. 55: Derrick Jones, SF, UNLV
By virtue of their trade with the Celtics, the Nets are the last team scheduled to make their first draft pick -- not until No. 55. At that point, Brooklyn will probably be looking overseas, but the international pool has been picked over pretty heavily in this mock draft.
Jones was a top recruit who flashed some talent in his lone season at UNLV, and you can't ask for much more at this point.