A familiar name tops my statistics-based projections for the 2016 NBA Draft, but a surprising player is not far behind.
I first unveiled my projections, which factor in a player's translated college or international performance, his age and his rank on Chad Ford's big board, for collegians during the NCAA tournament.
(Read more on the process and see past projections here.)
Now, it's time to update those rankings to include the final list of international prospects after Monday's deadline to withdraw from the draft.
Remarkably, just two players are in both Ford's top 10 and the top 10 of my statistical projections, the group that tends to yield All-Stars more consistently. Typically, there are about five such players per season. That lack of agreement between performance and scouting might be one reason 2016 is considered a weak draft.
Although this draft is relatively light on star college talent, the international crop looks strong. Four of the top-10 prospects by my projections played overseas, and three more international players rank in the top 30, not including the Australian-born prospect who ranks No. 1.
1. Ben Simmons
LSU
Forward
Big Board: No. 1
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.6 WARP
Don't be alarmed by Simmons' ranking seventh in the stats-only WARP projections, which consider a player's projected NBA performance and age. One factor in the projections regresses translated college performance to the average for the player's position. For most players, this doesn't matter much, but it does become a problem for a unique, versatile talent such as Simmons, who passes like a point guard and rebounds like a big man.
Absent the regression factor, Simmons would rank third strictly by the numbers, and including his No. 1 spot in Ford's ranking puts him appropriately at the top of this list.
2. Dragan Bender
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Power forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.4 WARP
As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.
Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).
3. Brandon Ingram
Duke
Small forward
Big Board: No. 2
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Although Ingram's translated performance at Duke should hardly be considered a red flag, it does not suggest the kind of stardom forecast by scouts. Aside from a strong block rate, the value of Ingram's length didn't show up in the box score in his college freshman season.
Of course, Ingram isn't getting credit for his solid individual defense -- one of the factors that explains why adding the scouting perspectives improves projections, compared to using stats alone.
4. Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Guard
Big Board: No. 3
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Although his performance at Kentucky doesn't suggest that Murray is a point guard (his projected assist rate is only average for an NBA-bound shooting guard), he projects well offensively. His freshman performance was broadly similar to that of C.J. McCollum at Lehigh after accounting for schedule strength, but Murray created more shots and shot more 3s than McCollum.
The concern is defense; Murray barely dented the box score with steals or blocks.
5. Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Center
Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My projections and those unveiled by the ESPN Analytics department last week agree on Poeltl, who joins Simmons and Ingram in the top five in both models.
The only question is whether a traditional center such as Poeltl remains as valuable in a changing NBA. The limited number of teams who need such a player is one reason Poeltl ranks lower on Ford's big board.
6. Zhou Qi (if age 20)
Xinjiang Guanghui
Power forward
Big Board: No. 48
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Forget about Bender, who has been scouted extensively by the NBA. Zhou is the real "international man of mystery" in the 2016 draft. He dominated weak competition in the Chinese CBA the past two seasons, but questions persist about how his weak frame will hold up against NBA opposition.
Although Zhou wasn't quite as good this season as he was in 2014-15 -- when he blocked better than one in 10 opponent 2-point attempts while shooting nearly 70 percent from the field -- based on his listed age (20), he tops all players in my statistical projections. If instead Zhou is projected at age 23, based on scouts' suspicions about his age, he drops to 16th in projected WARP and 27th in the consensus projections.
7. Kris Dunn
Providence
Point guard
Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Because my model considers only the past three seasons, Dunn's relatively weak freshman campaign doesn't work against him. That season is a bit of a concern, though Dunn's terrific defensive stats (his projected steal rate ranks second among prospects in Ford's top 100) should translate reliably to the NBA.
8. Juan Hernangomez
Estudiantes
Power forward
Big Board: No. 26
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
The younger brother of 2015 Knicks second-round pick Willy Hernangomez, Juan is a stretch-4 prospect who developed into a starter in the Spanish ACB this season at age 20.
More than 40 percent of Hernangomez's attempts came from beyond the arc, and he made them at a healthy 35.8 percent clip. For a perimeter-oriented big man, Hernangomez is also a strong defensive rebounder.
9. Ante Zizic
KK Cibona
Center
Big Board: No. 21
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The Adriatic League has produced solid center talent lately, in Nuggets teammates Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, and Zizic looks like the next in the line.
He shot better than 60 percent from the field in Adriatic play this season while averaging 18.2 points and 11.0 rebounds per 36 minutes.
10. Marquese Chriss
Washington
Power forward
Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
An unheralded prospect entering his lone season as a Husky, Chriss suddenly finds himself fifth on Ford's big board and even higher in mock drafts. That might be too much, too soon.
While Chriss is an explosive athlete who showed college 3-point range (shooting an even 35 percent), his defensive rebounding is a major concern. He was a below average defensive rebounder at UW -- not for a big man but for a player at any position. Whatever team drafts Chriss will have to hope that was a product of the Huskies' tendency to switch Chriss onto guards or his late-developing frame.
11. Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Point guard
Big Board: No. 18
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Before he was in the first round of mock drafts, Baldwin's performance as a freshman in 2014-15 pegged him as a sleeper. His combination of playmaking and shooting ability is relatively rare.
Among sophomores in my college database, the only previous player with a projected assist rate better than seven per 100 plays and projected 3-point shooting better than 35 percent was Chris Paul. That said, Paul projected as a far superior overall prospect.
12. Ivica Zubac
KK Mega Vizura
Center
Big Board: No. 25
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Because Zubac has played limited minutes against top competition, his projection is more based on potential at age 19 than performance so far. In 259 minutes of Serbian KLS play since joining Mega Vizura, Zubac shot just 50.5 percent from the field, though he's been far more accurate in previous spot minutes.
13. Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 8
Stats: No. 28
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
A unique feature of my model is that it weighs earlier seasons in college more heavily than recent seasons because of the poor track record of late bloomers such as Hield. If Hield proves to be a knockdown 3-point shooter in the NBA, he'll be an exception, but historically, past improvement has not guaranteed more in the future.
14. Fred VanVleet
Wichita State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 60
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
VanVleet's terrific statistical projection -- best among NCAA prospects -- is a surprising result from this year's model. He has a rare combination of playmaking ability and sure-handedness. VanVleet's projected 4.09 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best of any player in my college database, which was previously topped by 2013 second-round pick Nate Wolters, at 3.45. That probably won't make VanVleet an NBA star, but it gives him a good chance to become a reliable backup.
15. Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Power forward
Big Board: No. 11
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Ellenson has been compared to Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love, and this is an instructive example of how such comparisons can be unfair to prospects (and to the stars drawing the comparison). Ellenson was a good freshman at Marquette. Love was one of the nation's best players in his lone season at UCLA, and he dominated on the glass and scored far more efficiently than Ellenson.
If everything breaks right, Ellenson's ceiling looks a lot like what Love has become (Ellenson is perhaps a slightly better rim protector). But after he shot 28.8 percent on 3s and 49.5 percent on 2s in college, Ellenson has a long way to get there.
16. Tyler Ulis
Kentucky
Point guard
Big Board: No. 23
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
From a statistical standpoint, Ulis' small stature -- the explanation for why scouts aren't so high on him -- manifests itself mostly in his weak 2-point percentage (projected at 41.6 percent as a rookie).
Ulis will probably have to develop into a consistent 3-point shooter to score efficiently in the NBA, but he's an excellent playmaker and a pesky defender.
17. Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Power forward
Big Board: No. 10
Stats: No. 31
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
A high-percentage finisher, Sabonis projects to have the seventh-best true shooting percentage as a rookie among players in Ford's top 100. He's also a good passer for a big man, but he rates poorly at the defensive end because of low steal and block rates.
18. Furkan Korkmaz
Anadolu Efes
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 14
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Korkmaz, who surprised draft experts by electing to remain eligible at age 18 (he'll turn 19 in July), was an effective offensive player against Euroleague competition with Efes, despite his youth.
Korkmaz's defensive stats are poor, however, and those numbers don't tend to improve much with age.
19. Patrick McCaw
UNLV
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 28
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
The top-rated 3-and-D wing in this year's draft by my projections, McCaw is a prolific thief who brings unusual ballhandling skill for a role player on the wing. He isn't yet a consistent 3-point threat, but he could probably survive without major improvement there, along the lines of players such as Corey Brewer and Iman Shumpert.
20. Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Power forward
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Although Davis is listed as a power forward, his ability to defend centers will probably be key to his NBA future. Davis blocks shots well enough to protect the rim as a center, and his finishing off the pick-and-roll figures to be more effective when he is the lone big man in a four-out system.
Perhaps Davis will improve his jumper to the point that he can space the floor, but his foul shooting (60.5 percent) is not promising in this regard.
21. Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Small forward
Big Board: No. 22
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Valentine -- not the more heralded Hield -- rated as the best player in college hoops last season on a per-minute basis, by Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric.
Valentine too was a late bloomer and did not emerge as a star until his junior year, so he doesn't project quite as well overall as his senior season would suggest.
22. Diamond Stone
Maryland
Center
Big Board: No. 32
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
For a 19-year-old center, Stone has some solid skills, including impressive 76.1 percent free throw shooting as a freshman.
To succeed, however, Stone will probably have to improve as a defensive rebounder. Among freshmen centers in my database, only Tarik Black projected worse on the defensive glass.
23. Gary Payton II
Oregon State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 55
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Here's an interesting contrast: As a 6-foot-3 point guard, Payton outrebounded Stone on the defensive glass. In fact, GPII projects as the best defensive rebounder among point guards in my database, and rebounding has generally been a strong indicator for point guards.
Befitting the son of the former Defensive Player of the Year, Payton has the best projected steal rate in the draft and the highest projected block rate for a point guard in my database. Although Payton is neither a great playmaker nor an outside shooting threat, he figures to be a standout defensively.
24. Chinanu Onuaku
Louisville
Center
Big Board: No. 35
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
A favorite of statistical projections (he ranks 13th in the ESPN Analytics model, which does not include international prospects), Onuaku has decent skill for a low-usage big man, particularly as a passer. His real value comes at the defensive end, where he projects as a good shot-blocker and has an excellent steal rate for a center.
25. Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Power forward
Big Board: No. 27
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
In limited action at Kansas (he played just 202 minutes all season, albeit often in competitive situations), Diallo was an impressive rebounder and shot-blocker, but he struggled when asked to do anything besides finish on offense. He handed out one assist in 202 minutes against 17 turnovers and committed 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes.
Diallo's pedigree and defensive stats are enough to keep him in the first round -- barely.
26. Jameel Warney
Stony Brook
Power forward
Big Board: No. 78
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
A classic undersized yet productive big man in the Trevor Booker mold, Warney's production against mid-major competition projects well to the NBA.
Warney did a little of everything at Stony Brook, and he is a fine passer and shot-blocker for a power forward. Like Deyonta Davis, he might eventually slide down a position, though he's listed at 6-foot-8.
27. Guerschon Yabusele
Rouen
Forward
Big Board: No. 30
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Listed at a bruising 6-foot-8, 240 pounds, Yabusele has showed more skill than his frame would suggest. He has FIBA 3-point range and shot an excellent 76.5 percent from the foul line in league competition in France. If anything, Yabusele's ability to hold his own on the glass and challenge shots around the rim are in question.
28. Dejounte Murray
Washington
Point guard
Big Board: No. 9
Stats: No. 59
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
NBA teams are projecting Murray as a point guard after he shared ballhandling duties with Washington senior Andrew Andrews in his lone college season. At the point, Murray's 6-foot-6 size is a huge plus, and he has shown the ability to get to the basket off the dribble.
The question is whether Murray can improve his finishing and develop his outside shot in order to score efficiently. Murray's projected .458 true shooting percentage (TS%) would become the worst for any first-round pick in my database. (Elfrid Payton, who posted a .463 TS% as a freshman, currently holds that dubious distinction.)
29. Malik Beasley
Florida State
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 17
Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
As a freshman, Beasley was a high-percentage scorer at Florida State, as he averaged 20.9 points per 40 minutes on solid .583 true shooting.
Alas, the translation to the NBA takes a big chunk out of his 3-point percentage, and if Beasley isn't an efficient scorer, he might not contribute in other ways. His assist and steal rates are poor for a shooting guard.
30. Ron Baker
Wichita State
Guard
Big Board: No. 59
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
VanVleet's backcourt-mate ranks just ahead of him on Ford's big board but doesn't have quite as effusive a statistical projection.
Baker has demonstrated enough ballhandling chops running the show with VanVleet on the bench to be considered a combo guard at the NBA level.
Shooting more consistently on his frequent 3-point attempts (he made 35 percent as a senior after 38-plus the previous two seasons) would help.
Projections for Ford's top 100
Note: Due to insufficient statistical data, I do not have projections for Thon Maker and three other top-100 prospects: Georgios Papagiannis (No. 74), Gracin Bakumanya (No. 76) and Brandon Austin (No. 100).