Dragan Bender another Porzingis? Second-best NBA draft prospect?

Should the Boston Celtics draft Dragan Bender with the No. 3 pick? Or should the Los Angeles Lakers take Dragan Bender at No. 2, ahead of Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram?

ESPN Insiders Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton provide the kind of discussion happening in front offices around the NBA, where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Today the focus is Bender, who might be one of the two best prospects in the 2016 NBA draft.

What are Dragan Bender's strengths?

Kevin Pelton: Chad, there's one top-10 prospect we've yet to discuss this season: Croatian forward Dragan Bender, who is currently fifth on your big board.

With the conclusion of the regular season in the Israel BSL, I used the ratio of performances by players like Bender who played both in Israel and either the Euroleague or EuroCup international competitions to translate Bender's Maccabi Tel Aviv stats to their NBA equivalents.

With projections for Bender in the NBA in hand, it's time to consider where he belongs among this year's top draft picks. What do scouts see as his strengths?

Chad Ford: He's (theoretically) a perfect big man in modern NBA offenses and defenses.

Offensively, Bender can stretch the floor (he shot 38.6 percent from 3-point range in Israel during the regular season), has above-average court vision and can finish at the rim. If you're a triple-threat 7-footer who can pass, shoot or drive, there's a place for you in the NBA.

Defensively, Bender is even better right now -- a versatile 7-footer who can guard multiple positions both on the perimeter and in the paint. He has the physical tools, the basketball skills and the relentless motor to be a Swiss Army knife in the NBA.

Pelton: Beyond the shooting, the versatility you mention stands out in Bender's translated statistics. As compared to power forwards in the draft, he rates as above average in assist, steal and block rates. In fact, his block percentage ranked fourth in the BSL, and two of the players ahead of him (Hamady N'Diaye and Mickell Gladness) are centers who previously played in the NBA.

In addition to that, it's important to mention Bender's age as a strength. He managed to hold his own in a competitive Israeli league despite starting the season at age 17. He's the youngest player among your top 100 draft prospects.

What are Bender's weaknesses?

Pelton: All right, where do the scouts see Bender needing more development?

Ford: Experience, piggybacking off what you mentioned with his age. Bender has gotten limited playing time this year for Maccabi. He's averaging 12 minutes per game, but his role is quite limited, especially offensively.

Bender's lack of significant development on the court over the past 18 months (he sat out last summer's FIBA Under-19 world championships because of a shoe dispute) makes him a bit of a wild card. With Kristaps Porzingis, scouts got to see him play a big role in the best league in Europe before drafting him. Bender is more theory than practice right now.

He also needs to get stronger. He's tough and plays really hard, but he'll get pushed around at first in the NBA.

Pelton: That lack of strength shows up a couple of places in Bender's statistics. His foul rate is astronomical -- nearly seven per 36 minutes. And though Bender has been pretty good on the offensive glass, his translated defensive rebound percentage would be poor for a small forward, let alone a 7-foot-1 big man.

You're also right about Bender's small role. He's used on 16.9 percent of Maccabi's plays, which translates to a tiny usage rate in the NBA. Lastly, in part because Bender was spacing the floor, he rarely got to the free throw line.

How does Bender compare to Porzingis?

Pelton: Given the success the aforementioned Porzingis enjoyed as a rookie, and their physical similarity, comparisons between the two players are inevitable. How does Bender compare as a draft prospect? And if not Porzingis, who might be a good comparison for Bender?

Ford: It's a sexy comparison. They're both 7-footers with great motors and versatile skill sets.

But there are differences. Porzingis is a better athlete and shot-blocker and came with much more experience. Bender is arguably a more versatile defender, better shooter and better passer. Most of the international scouts I've spoken with think Porzingis is a better prospect -- though Bender has his fans.

Bender loves a Toni Kukoc comp. That's his hero. But he's not as skilled offensively.

I'm not sure he has an ideal comp. Perhaps the closest I can come is a much bigger Draymond Green. Same versatility on both ends. Similar motor and athleticism. Just a lot taller and skinnier.

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.

Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.

Because Porzingis was a year further along in his development, it's tough to compare the two players at the point they were drafted. But if we compare Bender to Porzingis in 2014, when Porzingis was the same age, the comparison is more reasonable -- and favorable to Bender.

His translated NBA winning percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric, or WARP) is .444. During 2013-14, Porzingis had a translated .389 winning percentage in the Spanish ACB. (He improved to .461 in 2014-15.)

As a result, Bender performs slightly better in my WARP projections, which factor in age and projected NBA performance. His 3.4 WARP projection is tied with Clint Capela for the best from a prospect in Europe since Ricky Rubio in 2009 (3.7), just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (3.3), Porzingis (3.2) and Nikola Jokic (3.1).

My SCHOENE projection system has an equally difficult time finding a comp for Bender. Comparing him to NCAA prospects, no player has a similarity score of better than 90 at the same age -- which means there are no easy statistical comps.

Where does Bender rank?

Pelton: All right, so factoring that all in, where do scouts have Bender on draft boards? Has he dropped after getting buzz as a possible No. 1 pick last fall?

Ford: Most view him as an elite prospect in the three to six range. A handful have him slightly lower, in the seven to 10 range.

I'm not sure he's "slipped" all that much. It's more that both Jamal Murray and Kris Dunn made their case to be top-5 picks. Guards are in vogue, and Bender's lack of experience makes him a bigger gamble.

Nevertheless, I'm projecting Bender to go No. 4 to the Suns. Given their needs in the wake of the Markieff Morris trade, I think he's a great fit.

Pelton: I think there's a case to be made that even No. 4 is too low for Bender.

Factoring in his ranking on your big board, Bender's consensus projection is for 3.5 WARP -- second in this year's draft behind Ben Simmons. Nobody else is above 3.0, with Brandon Ingram at 2.9. Murray (2.6) and Dunn (2.3) are far below Bender.

While Bender is unlikely to help quite as much right away as the guards, particularly the 22-year-old Dunn, if teams are patient I think he's got a much better chance of becoming a star.

Based on Bender's projections, not only should the Boston Celtics be strongly considering him with the No. 3 pick, he also deserves consideration from the L.A. Lakers at No. 2.