By definition, all 25 teams that made a pick in last night's NBA draft improved their rosters. For me, though, the real test of success is whether a team got more out of their picks than we'd expect, based on average results in years past.
To quantify that concept, I've used the average value of each pick from 2006 to 2013 (as detailed last year) and my WARP projections from this year's draft to rate each selection, then totaled those ratings and ranked teams from 1 to 25. Here is how they performed in statistical terms.
1. Denver Nuggets (plus-5.4 projected WARP, 3.0 expected based on picks)
The Nuggets actually entered the draft with 2.1 expected WARP, a total they improved via a savvy trade of the 11th pick for the 16th and 19th selections. Denver then used those two first-rounders to pick the No. 3 (Jusuf Nurkic, 3.3 projected WARP) and No. 13 (Gary Harris, 1.9) prospects in my WARP projections.
In the second round, the Nuggets added my No. 5 prospect, Nikola Jokic (3.1). Even if you think translated Adriatic League stats overestimate the potential of the two centers, both Nurkic and Harris easily could have been lottery picks, and Jokic could have gone at the start of the second round.
2. Memphis Grizzlies (plus-3.2 WARP, 1.7 expected)
My draft ratings haven't always aligned with those of John Hollinger, my Per Diem predecessor and current vice president of basketball operations for the Grizzlies. They apparently did this year, though. The Grizzlies grabbed UCLA guard Jordan Adams (No. 6 in projected WARP at 3.0) with the 22nd pick, then traded a future second-rounder Utah to get Tennessee forward Jarnell Stokes (No. 14, 1.9) at 35.
3. Houston Rockets (plus-1.8 WARP, 1.5 expected)
As we know, the Rockets are another team that makes heavy use of statistical analysis. With his only pick, Houston general manager Daryl Morey took Swiss forward Clint Capela, whom I highlighted before the draft as a positional steal, and according to WARP projections, could end up being one of the best players in the draft. (3.4).
4. Charlotte Hornets (plus-1.5 WARP, 2.9 expected)
The Hornets rank well because of their willingness to go for the best player available rather than try and fill a need. Charlotte stopped Indiana forward Noah Vonleh's slide at the ninth pick. Vonleh was ninth in projected WARP (2.4), but still better than the average ninth pick in this deep draft, and could prove to be a steal. Later, the Hornets got the shooting they needed by trading down two spots to take P.J. Hairston (1.8, 11th) at the 26th pick, completing a strong night.
5. Boston Celtics (plus-1.3 WARP, 3.1 expected)
No. 17 pick James Young went much higher than his WARP projection (1.2, 33rd) warranted. Still, the Celtics grade out well because they drafted the top prospect by projected WARP, Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart (3.6), with the sixth pick.
6. Detroit Pistons (plus-0.4 WARP, 0.7 expected)
Detroit used its only pick, No. 38 overall, on Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who ranked 25th in projected WARP (1.1) and was considered a possible late first-round pick.
7. San Antonio Spurs (plus-0.3 WARP, 1.2 expected)
The Spurs get dinged a bit for their second-round pick, Nemanja Dangubic, whose WARP projection rates him 1.2 wins below replacement level. (Since below-replacement picks aren't likely to play, I zeroed them all out, but the rating is still negative compared to expectation.) However, San Antonio did well to get stathead favorite Kyle Anderson (1.5, 19th) with the 30th pick. Andersen should excel in the Spurs' system, which emphasizes ball movement.
8. Philadelphia 76ers (plus-0.3 WARP, 6.0 expected)
From a statistical standpoint, general manager Sam Hinkie's second draft wasn't quite as spectacular as his first, which topped last year's rankings. Philadelphia's second-round picks rated as hit (K.J. McDaniels, 1.5) and miss (Jordan McRae, minus-1.4). Despite his slight drop in the draft after signing to play in Turkey, Dario Saric (1.4) was taken right in line with his projection (12th). Of course, the health and development of Joel Embiid (2.9, 7th) will make or break this draft, and there's no easy way to quantify the risk of his recovery from a fractured navicular bone.
9. Utah Jazz (plus-0.2 WARP, 3.0 expected)
In Dante Exum (3.3 projected WARP, fourth), the Jazz got great value at the fifth pick. But Utah undid some of that by taking Rodney Hood (minus-0.2 projected WARP) later in the first round.
10. Miami Heat (plus-0.1 WARP, 1.0 expected)
No team came closer to nailing the average value of its pick than the Heat, after trading up to take 24th-rated Shabazz Napier (1.1) with the 24th pick.
11. Chicago Bulls (-0.2 WARP, 2.0 expected)
I didn't love the Bulls' trade from 16th and 19th to 11th, but Doug McDermott's 1.8 projected WARP is better than average for that spot. Chicago rated below average overall because of second-round choice Cameron Bairstow, who had the lowest WARP projection (minus-1.8) of any player drafted.
12. Milwaukee Bucks (minus-0.4 WARP, 4.1 expected)
Though he ranked eighth in projected WARP (2.5), No. 2 pick Jabari Parker scores as a typical second selection. The Bucks appeared to get a second-round steal in French forward Damien Inglis (1.2, 23rd) before reaching for Johnny O'Bryant (minus-0.4), who rates as one of the least NBA-ready players in the draft.
13. Sacramento Kings (minus-0.5 WARP, 1.7 expected)
At 1.2 WARP, Michigan guard Nik Stauskas rated 22nd, making him a bit of a statistical reach at the eighth pick. Stauskas' shooting fills an important need for the Kings, though he won't help their defense.
14. Atlanta Hawks (minus-0.5 WARP, 2.3 expected)
Because of his age (23), WARP projections hate Hawks first-round pick Adreian Payne (minus-0.2), another player whose shooting ability is ideal for his team (in this case, because Atlanta values floor spacing above other traits in its big men). The Hawks got some of that back statistically with second-round picks Walter Tavares (1.0) and Lamar Patterson (0.9), both good values.
15. New Orleans Pelicans (minus-0.5 WARP, 0.5 expected)
Despite winning KenPom.com's statistical KPOY award each of the past two seasons, Russ Smith (minus-0.3 projected WARP) doesn't rate as an efficient NBA player, in large part because late development has boded poorly for NBA success in the past.
16. New York Knicks (minus-0.6 WARP, 1.6 expected)
Due to his age (23), Wichita State forward Cleanthony Early (0.0 projected WARP) doesn't rate as well by the numbers as he does in the eyes of scouts. The Knicks' other two second-round picks, Thanasis Antetokounmpo (0.6) and French forward Louis Labeyrie (0.4), rate as average for where they were chosen.
17. Toronto Raptors (minus-0.7 WARP, 1.8 expected)
I have no methodology to translate Brazilian statistics and therefore cannot rate Bruno Caboclo, Toronto's surprise first-round pick. This rating is entirely based on second-round pick DeAndre Daniels, who rated 0.9 wins below replacement level.
18. Los Angeles Lakers (minus-0.7 WARP, 2.3 expected)
Though the numbers favored taking Vonleh over Julius Randle (1.6 projected WARP, 17th), Randle was still a fairly typical seventh pick. The Lakers did worse statistically by buying a second-round pick to draft Missouri guard Jordan Clarkson (minus-0.5).
19. Los Angeles Clippers (minus-0.9 WARP, 0.9 expected)
The Clippers' only pick, Washington guard C.J. Wilcox (minus-0.8 projected WARP), was the lowest-rated first-round pick. Wilcox's shooting ability may make him more valuable than that projection, but it's tough to see how he cracks a crowded wing rotation in L.A.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (minus-0.9 WARP, 2.4 expected)
All three of Minnesota's picks, starting with UCLA guard Zach LaVine (0.9, 28th) at No. 13, rated worse than average for where they were taken. Italian forward Alessandro Gentile rated 0.9 wins below replacement level.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder (minus-1.0 WARP, 1.9 expected)
Last year, the Thunder's surprise first-round pick (Andre Roberson) was an advanced-stats darling. Not so with Stanford forward Josh Huestis (0.1 projected WARP), who was ostensibly drafted to compete with Roberson. Mitch McGary (0.8) went a bit higher than his value suggested.
22. Phoenix Suns (minus-1.1 WARP, 3.8 expected)
Starting with three first-round picks, the Suns got good value in Syracuse point guard Tyler Ennis (2.0, 12th), but not with T.J. Warren (0.6), the lowest-rated lottery pick, or Serbian guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (0.2).
23. Orlando Magic (minus-1.1 WARP, 4.1 expected)
Your view of the Magic's draft depends on how much importance you place on shooting, because neither Aaron Gordon (1.7 projected WARP, 16th) nor Elfrid Payton (0.8, 34th) are accurate shooters. It seems Orlando will try and compensate for below-average shooting on the wing with elite defense.
24. Brooklyn Nets (minus-1.2 WARP, 1.2 expected)
The Nets purchased three second-round picks and used them all on seniors, none of them with positive WARP projections: Markel Brown (minus-0.6), Cory Jefferson (minus-0.4) and Xavier Thames (minus-1.8). The problem with using second-round picks on fringe college veterans is those choices lose all value if the player is cut. By contrast, drafting and stashing an international prospect offers some chance, however small, of getting value from the pick.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers (minus-3.1 WARP, 4.4 expected)
Essentially, this spot is a referendum on Andrew Wiggins (1.3 projected WARP, 21st), whose performance at Kansas didn't match up with that of a typical No. 1 pick. Both of Cleveland's second-round picks (Virginia sharpshooter Joe Harris at minus-0.6, and Stanford forward Dwight Powell at minus-1.3) were seniors who rate worse than replacement level.
No picks: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Washington Wizards