The ESPN Summer Forecast series continues. Next up? The 2015-16 Most Valuable Player.
This time last season, the forecast panel was convinced that the 2014-15 MVP award would go to the King. Returning to Cleveland, LeBron James was the overwhelming summertime favorite over Kevin Durant. It didn't quite work out that way, of course.
But we're expecting James to get revenge in 2015-16.
The panel has spoken and we're envisioning James to win the 2015-16 MVP award. And it's not all that close.
James received 115 points, which was 49 percent higher than second-place finisher Anthony Davis, who garnered 77 points. At distant third, James Harden finished with 36 points. Put it this way: James accumulated more points than the next two runners-up combined. Perhaps most surprising is the panel's skepticism about Stephen Curry's ability to repeat. The reigning MVP received just 23 votes, placing him fifth behind Durant.
But despite the panel's being in favor for James, I don't see it the same way. In the end, I expect Davis to win the 2015-16 MVP award. And here are a few reasons why.
The Pelicans should be much better
New coach Alvin Gentry has joined a young playoff team that brought back its entire roster behind a budding superstar, looking to make the leap in the deep Western Conference.
Oh, you thought I was talking about the Pelicans? Nah, I'm talking about the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors, a team that went from 51 wins in 2013-14 to 67 wins in 2014-15 without making huge changes to the roster.
Of course, Gentry wasn't the Warriors' head coach; he was the top assistant to Steve Kerr. But Gentry's fingerprints were all over the team's offensive schemes that led to more purposeful ball movement and blitzing speed. Under Gentry's stewardship, the Warriors jumped from 12th in offensive efficiency to second overall.
Though passing doesn't always drive better offense, the Pelicans rank second-to-last in passes per game last season, according to NBA.com player-tracking data. The Warriors ranked dead-last in that category in 2013-14. Under Gentry's watch, the Warriors catapulted to eighth overall. Look for Gentry to try a similar makeover for Davis' squad. The Pelicans' 22nd-ranked defense will need work, too.
After winning 45 games last season, the Pelicans' improvement will be the flame that ignites Davis' MVP campaign. In a piece back in 2013, I found that the MVP hailed from a team that won on average 61.6 games during the regular season. That makes it pretty clear: If Davis wants to put himself over that MVP hump, history says the New Orleans Pelicans had better cross that 60-win threshold. Just ask Curry.
However, don't bet the Pelicans will improve by 16 wins next season like the Warriors did. That kind of jump from good to all-time great almost never happens, but the Pelicans should improve just enough to get Davis' MVP campaign in full tilt.
He won't be hidden anymore
For whatever reason, it seems the NBA was the last entity to come around on Davis as must-see TV. The league office buried his team on the national-television stage last season, allotting only two nationally televised games for the Pelicans on the entire 2014-15 schedule.
That changes this season. The Pelicans will have 13 nationally televised games, starting with the juicy season opener against playoff foe Golden State, the team that also has to fill Gentry's void. How rare is the spotlight on New Orleans? The Pelicans were on ESPN/ABC or TNT just seven times in Davis' first three regular seasons combined, according to nola.com. They'll nearly double that this regular season.
For many voters, seeing is believing. It isn't enough to glance at his eye-popping stats in the box score; you have to watch Davis to be convinced of his otherworldly talents. Hidden from view, Davis simply wasn't part of the national conversation until the Pelicans made a late-season charge. The national stage will help boost his visible credibility, especially after Davis put on a show in the playoffs, averaging 31.5 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks per game against the mighty Warriors.
Davis already may have surpassed James
Statistically, James' status as the game's best already might have come to an end. Davis led the NBA in player efficiency rating by a mile, checking in at a staggering 30.8 rating while James clocked in at 25.9. Davis was also statistically the most clutch player in the NBA last season, adding more win probability to his team's ledger than any other player.
Looking at other statistical all-in-one barometers, Davis had a far better win share rate (.274 to .199 for James), according to Basketball-Reference.com tracking. By those measurements, Davis has already distanced himself from James. However, Davis' superiority was not unanimous. James narrowly nipped Davis in real plus-minus and box plus-minus this past season.
Bottom line: Davis is either already better than James or just about eye-to-eye, depending on which measuring stick you use. But that was last season. The 30-year-old James has more miles on his tires than Magic Johnson and Larry Bird ever did. James is exiting his prime while Davis is entering it at age 22. That's one reason why Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projections next season (sneak peek here!) has Davis as an NBA-best 18.6 WARP, followed by Curry and James at 18.0 WARP.
The argument against Davis is that the Cavaliers likely will post a better record next season, thanks to a stronger supporting cast featuring Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and a lagging Eastern Conference. But if the MVP trump card is that James has better teammates and plays in an easier conference, that's not much of a trump card at all. With better numbers, a stronger team record and more national exposure, Davis should supplant James as the game's best in 2015-16 and take his rightful seat on the MVP throne.