ESPN.com's annual Summer Forecast always is one of the most important season-specific bookmarks in the NBA area of my browser. It's only August, and here in the Midwest, all you have to do is poke your head outside during the afternoon to be reminded that the NBA season is still a ways off -- two months and 10 days, to be exact. Yet the summer forecasts are something I will refer to again and again over the next nine months.
Whether or not the predictions prove accurate doesn't matter. What's important is that we establish each team's reasonable expectations for the coming season, and these baselines will inform our work from here on out.
I invariably disagree with some of the outcomes from the summer voting. Sometimes I look at the results and think we've contracted some form of collective madness, like from the Star Trek episode "The Naked Now" when Spock weeps. These disagreements are a matter of degree. It's not like I harbor a secret belief that the Sixers will win the championship. With that in mind, let's consider how the collective East forecasts align with those of my own.
More or less agree
Teams projected to finish within three wins of their summer forecast.
Atlanta Hawks | 50 wins
There seems to be an understandable feeling that the Hawks will regress from their monumental 60-win season in 2014-15, especially with starter DeMarre Carroll departing for Toronto. The 50-win summer forecast might seem like a steep descent. After all, as good as Carroll might be, he's not worth 10 wins, and Atlanta did add Tiago Splitter and Tim Hardaway Jr. during the summer. Yet the forecast and my system agree that while Atlanta remains a force, last season was an outlier.
Boston Celtics | 40 wins
The Celtics' lack of an All-Star forecast for any one player hurts them in my system, but collectively Boston looks strong in terms of real Real Plus-Minus (RPM). A run at a winning season and a return to the playoffs seems reasonable.
Chicago Bulls | 50 wins
The Bulls project to return more than 98 percent of their minutes from last season, but zero percent of their head coach. Analytically, the Bulls project to decline a bit because of the collective age of their roster, but it's a mild regression. The summer forecast mostly sees a repeat of last season. The keys for improvement are two-fold: A full season of All-Star play from Derrick Rose, and a Steve Kerr-like splash from new coach Fred Hoiberg.
Cleveland Cavaliers | 59 wins
Whether you consider a projection system like mine, RPM or the summer forecast, the Cavs' baseline looks like 59-60 wins. That puts them on their own top tier in the East.
Miami Heat | 47 wins
My system is much more excited about the Heat than the RPM projection is. That suggests that while the parts look good on paper, their fit might be a challenge for Erik Spoelstra. Still, when you split the difference, you end up near where our summer forecasters think the Heat will finish.
New York Knicks | 25 wins
There will be plenty to write about this in the months to come, so for now I'll just be blunt -- no matter how you slice it, whether you use objective projections or summer voting, the Knicks' baseline win total is in the mid-20s. If you want to look at it optimistically, that would be an improvement over last season.
Orlando Magic | 30 wins
If we were to attach a "breakout score" to the summer balloting process, I suspect the Magic would rate well. Their forecast for 28-30 wins might not stir a lot of hearts, but subjectively speaking I do think Orlando is a team to watch.
Better than forecast
Teams projected to finish more than three wins above their summer forecast.
Charlotte Hornets | 35 wins
I actually have the Hornets performing seven wins better than their summer forecast for 35 victories, and my projection is almost exactly what you'd derive from RPM. I'm confident that our voters are underselling Charlotte, though it's not like the numbers peg the Hornets as a title contender. This is a team with identifiable strengths: the lowest projected turnover rate in the league, the highest defensive rebound rate, a legitimate 10-man rotation devoid of gaping holes and a solid coach in Steve Clifford.
Detroit Pistons | 35 wins
I'm wary, because my system has had an optimistic blind spot for the Pistons the last couple of years. RPM likes Detroit better than the forecast, but not as much as my system. Defensive improvement is the real key, and Stan Van Gundy's track record points to that happening now that he's had a year to shape the roster to his liking. My big concern is that the Pistons end up as a jump shooting team that doesn't actually shoot that well, and when they get to the line, they also miss those.
Indiana Pacers | 39 wins
If Paul George plays at his pre-injury level, I feel pretty good about my system's over-.500 forecast for Indiana. RPM likes them, too. I do worry that Indiana's fairly optimistic defensive projection is a residual from the old roster. Still, Frank Vogel is one of the best defensive coaches in the game, so that's a fleeting concern at most.
Toronto Raptors | 44 wins
Last season ended on a down note, but the Raptors have won 97 games over the last two seasons. They rank in the middle of the pack in collective age and have added key role players like Carroll, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph and Bismack Biyombo. Rookie Delon Wright has one of the best projections among first-year players, and there could be jolts from the development of Lucas Nogueira and Bruno Caboclo. I just don't see how this roster goes from 49 wins to the 44 predicted by the forecast.
Worse than forecast
Teams projected to finish more than three wins below their summer forecast.
Milwaukee Bucks | 44 wins
Subjectively, I don't agree with my own projection system (40 wins) when it comes to the Bucks, but I can't ignore those results -- especially when RPM is even more pessimistic. The summer forecast for 44 wins is optimistic when considered in that light. But I suspect that the Bucks will look even better than either the numbers or the voters predict a year from now.
Philadelphia 76ers | 19 wins
The Sixers project to finish with the worst offense in the league, more than a full point less than any other team in the East. The defensive projection isn't great either, but beginning with Nerlens Noel, there is hope for Philly to build off of on that end. Still, this figures to be another long season for the Sixers.
Washington Wizards | 46 wins
I think there is a common perception of the Wizards as an up-and-coming team. A statistical breakout from Bradley Beal -- which could very well happen -- might make that perception a reality. Still, even if Otto Porter improves, it's a big step down from Paul Pierce at small forward, and the rest of the depth chart features a lot of players with RPMs well below zero.
Brooklyn Nets | 30 wins
I've heard plenty from Brooklyn fans already who think I'm way off in my assessment of the Nets as putrid. Unfortunately for them, the RPM-based projections are even more pessimistic than I am. The summer forecast is for 30 wins and for the Nets to get to that total, they'd have to outperform their analytical projections more than any team in the league. The Nets come in just above Philly's poor offensive forecast, ranking 29th in the league.