ESPN.com's Summer Forecast for the 2015-16 NBA season debuted yesterday with a look at the standings for the Eastern Conference. These polls represent the collective belief of more than 200 people whose job it is to pay way too much attention to professional basketball.
Whether or not the predictions prove accurate doesn't matter. What's important is that we establish each team's reasonable expectation for the coming season, and these baselines will inform our work from here on out.
With that in mind, let's consider how the collective West forecasts align with those of my own. The big difference between my assessment of the West and that of the East is that the balloting is much more in line with objective forecasts in this conference. The explanation for that is simple: While the average team age in the West (27.9) is only slightly more than that in the East (27.7), five of the eight youngest teams in the league are in the East. Young players and teams are harder to forecast.
My personal theory is that people subjectively get excited about teams with good young players and think they'll get better more quickly than it actually happens. We'll see how it plays out. In the meantime, I've used narrower definitions for my groupings today so that I could get enough teams into each group. Otherwise, 12 of the 15 teams in the West would have ended up in the "More or less agree" group, which is no fun at all.
More or less agree
Teams projected to finish within two wins of their summer forecast.
Oklahoma City Thunder | 55 wins
The Thunder are tied with Chicago for the highest rate of returning minutes in the league. That means their projected distribution of minutes is overwhelmingly comprised of players from last year's roster. It doesn't account for the monumental effects of Kevin Durant's return. Oklahoma City won 119 games in the two seasons before last, so the summer forecast's 55 wins actually feels a little light, although that's likely due to lingering concern over just how healthy Durant will be. That's a legitimate worry, but a numbers-based forecast that assumes good health predicts the Thunder will have the league's top offense. If Durant is himself -- only a little surlier because of his lost season and a little more motivated by his impending free agency -- this could be the best Thunder team yet.
Houston Rockets | 56 wins
While the Rockets feature more continuity than they've had in past seasons, they did add significant pieces in Ty Lawson and Marcus Thornton. The forecasters see that combination merely keeping Houston at the 56 games it won last season. My system agrees, though it tacks on an additional win. Either way, the Rockets are in the title conversation and if the newcomers pan out, they could well win 60 games.
New Orleans Pelicans | 47 wins
The forecasters and projections both see the Pelis as adding a couple of wins. In a way, that's an indictment of their offseason when you consider the possible ascension of Anthony Davis to the top of the league's pecking order. The hope is the coaching change to Alvin Gentry will elevate the rest of the roster.
Golden State Warriors | 60 wins
Whether you're voting or projecting, we can all agree that the champion Warriors are due for an epic collapse. OK, maybe not. Yet it's reasonable to expect Golden State to decline by four to seven games, because they won 67 games last season. Some sort of regression is inevitable not just because of the huge leap the Warriors took under Steve Kerr, but also because of the possible after-effects of a short summer.
Phoenix Suns | 35 wins
My system, Real Plus-Minus (RPM) and the summer forecast all have the Suns projected to win around 35 games. The latter of those prognostications was a surprise for me. I figured that my brethren would be overly impressed with the Suns' signing of Tyson Chandler but, apparently, they are not.
Utah Jazz | 40 wins
Even though the Jazz project as the NBA's third-youngest team and won 38 games last season, the analytical systems see a very mild regression and the voters see the status quo. It all comes down to whether or not last season's post-All-Star breakout was a fluke. For one, point guard Dante Exum is out for the year. But the player to keep an eye on is Rudy Gobert, whose career trend looks stratospheric at the moment. Sometimes young big men put up eye-popping numbers in 20-25 minute roles but can't translate that to starter-level minutes. In that regard, Gobert is in the same boat as Miami's Hassan Whiteside as young centers with plenty yet to prove.
Better than forecast
Teams projected to finish more than two wins above their summer forecast.
Portland Trail Blazers | 31 wins
Over the last two seasons, no lineup in the NBA played more than Portland's quintet of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Damian Lillard, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews. Only Lillard will be back this season, and only the Knicks have had more overall turnover than the Blazers. (While the Knicks still managed to end up with the league's seventh-oldest roster, the Blazers will be the fifth-youngest -- but I digress...) It's understandable that the forecast sees a 20-game decline over last season. Neither my system nor RPM is so severe, although the Blazers need Ed Davis, Mason Plumlee, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh to all translate part-time prowess to bigger roles.
San Antonio Spurs | 57 wins
The Spurs retain their core five, add Aldridge and David West and the forecast see just a 1.5-win uptick? Come on, forecasters! Let's not forget that the Spurs are rested after a first-round exit and that they won 62 regular-season games in their championship 2013-14 run. It'll take at least that many to land a No. 1 seed in 2015-16.
Sacramento Kings | 31 wins
It's not that I'm predicting that the Kings will be good, but a full season of George Karl -- plus the additions of Kosta Koufos, Rajon Rondo, Willie Cauley-Stein and Marco Belinelli -- should translate to more than the two-win improvement the forecast sees for Sacramento.
Dallas Mavericks | 41 wins
I've written this before, but I think Dallas is really fascinating with a roster full of competent players who lack upside as a group. Collectively, the Mavs have the lowest improve rate and breakout rate in the league. They also project to be the third-oldest team. Yet with age comes predictability, which is why I tend to think my system's expectation for a win total in the mid- to upper-40s is realistic.
Minnesota Timberwolves | 24 wins
On one hand, the forecast's pessimism of this year's Wolves is evidence that the voters are not swayed by Minnesota's impressive collection of young players. Not yet, anyway. But let's not forget that there are significant veteran contributors on hand in Nikola Pekovic, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin and Kevin Garnett. That doesn't mark them as playoff contenders, but it should get them to more than 23 wins if all of those guys stay healthy.
Los Angeles Clippers | 56 wins
My system has the Clippers and the Spurs neck-and-neck as the preseason title favorites, with the Cavaliers, Warriors, Rockets and Thunder very much in the mix. Yet, as I've written, the Clippers have an uncomfortable element of volatility given the additions of Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith to their bench. As if to underscore that ephemeral concern, the numbers give the Clippers the second-highest collapse rate in the league. Collapse rates are generally low at the team level, so it's not exactly a disaster scenario, but it's worth noting.
Worse than forecast
Teams projected to finish more than two wins below their summer forecast.
Los Angeles Lakers | 26 wins
The summer forecast gives the Lakers a couple more wins than their statistical projection, which is what lands them in this group. If your hope was that the numbers would offer reasons for optimism that the voting did not, the evidence just isn't there. The Lakers are headed in the right direction, but the turnaround isn't coming this season.
Memphis Grizzlies | 51 wins
Memphis is the league's second-oldest team and that must have influenced the voters, who see a four-win decline for the Grizzlies. Both my system and RPM project that they're going to be a little worse than that, though probably not enough to drop Memphis out of the playoff picture altogether.
Denver Nuggets | 27 wins
I'm actually a little more partial to the forecast win projection than those of my numbers, which is closer to 22-23. I think Danilo Gallinari being another year removed from knee surgery will be a boon. Plus, Emmanuel Mudiay might be this year's most significant rookie. If these things come to pass, it won't be enough to get Denver into the playoff race, but they will bode well for the direction of a franchise that, frankly, has lacked one over the last couple of years.