ESPN's Summer Forecast series continues with the unveiling of the rookie of the year (ROY) rankings for the 2015-16 season. Trying to predict award winners is always a funny proposition, as there's a dissonance between who the voters think will win the award and who they think should win the award -- two radically different concepts. You can also throw in a sub-interpretation of "should," meaning which rookie will ultimately be the best player in the draft class.
I'll humor all constituencies and answer each question: who will win, who should win, and who will be the best player in class.
What makes a rookie of the year?
When looking at past results, there are predictable factors that seem to weigh more heavily in voter tendencies. Going back to the 2000-01 season, the ROY has generally been the player who was afforded the most freedom to learn through practical application (ESPN Insider David Thorpe often compares this to the "royal jelly" that queen bees receive to spur and sustain their development and nutrition). In essence, the winner of ROY usually benefits from three specific and highly related opportunities:
Opportunity to play: The ROY often leads his class in minutes per game, as his team will allow him every chance to learn through playing. This is also the reason why the ROY usually comes from a losing team; a team with nothing to play for is more likely to give a lion's share of minutes to a rookie. Since 2000-01, the ROY didn't lead his class in minutes played five times, with Amar'e Stoudemire being the most extreme example, playing more than 5 fewer minutes per game than Caron Butler. It's worth noting that in those five exceptions, only Kyrie Irving (2012) and Mike Miller (2001) failed to place in the top two of minutes played in their respective classes, and they were both third.
Opportunity to shoot: We are still an offense-minded community when it comes to recognition-based awards, and we are easily swayed by players who are given plenty of shots on the floor, regardless of whether they are efficient with those shots. As such, the ROY traditionally has been the class leader in field goal attempts per game, with only four exceptions since 2000-01. Again, Stoudemire lagging behind Butler by more than three shots per game is the most egregious example, while Miller was the only ROY not to place in the top two of attempts per game (again, he was third).
Opportunity to score: If you play a lot of minutes and have a green light to shoot, chances are you're going to score a lot more than everyone else (unless you're just not very good). Since this category is so strongly derived from the previous two, scoring is probably the strongest determinant of who gets recognized as rookie of the year. Since 2000-01, there have been only four exceptions, none of which was outpaced by more than 2.0 points per game. In fact, LeBron James (2003 ROY) missed out on the scoring lead to Carmelo Anthony by one-tenth of a point per game.
Over the past 15 classes, the three exceptions across the board in all three of these categories have been Miller over Kenyon Martin/Marc Jackson, Stoudemire over Butler, and Derrick Rose over O.J. Mayo (2009). What separated these three players? All three were on winning teams that made the playoffs, and in every case the scoring margins were close enough to reward the players contributing to a winning cause. Again, it's worth pointing out that those three players benefited from a scenario where their teams were good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to limit their opportunities to play, shoot and score.
Another, more recent development has been the shift of favor toward perimeter players. Since Stoudemire, only two true bigs have won ROY: Emeka Okafor (2005) and Blake Griffin (2011). With a decreasing emphasis on interior play, bigs are at a disadvantage, even when they're clearly the better prospect long term, as was the case when Damian Lillard (2013) bested Anthony Davis.
Who will win?
The final rankings in the forecast predictably were top-heavy, with all of the top-three draft picks making the top five:
Karl-Anthony Towns | 87 points
Jahlil Okafor | 71 points
Emmanuel Mudiay | 56 points
D'Angelo Russell | 51 points
Justise Winslow | 12 points
It's a fair bet to assume the higher the draft pick, the more likely he'll get the opportunities outlined above; after all, the highest picks are the most talented guys playing for the worst teams with the biggest incentive to feed them royal jelly. Additionally, Mudiay benefits from Denver's offseason trade of Ty Lawson, while Winslow hopes to capitalize on the prospect of being the top-10 pick most likely to play for a playoff team.
But going off the factors outlined above, I'd have to disagree with the order of the forecast's top five. While the Timberwolves won't make the playoffs, Towns will play on a roster with a considerable amount of young talent -- most notably, Andrew Wiggins, last year's ROY -- which will only siphon touches and shot attempts from what Towns could have received if he had gone to a worse situation. Additionally, in order to find a team that sported back-to-back ROY winners, you'd have to go all the way back to the 1970s (Bob McAdoo and Ernie DiGregorio in 1973 and 1974, respectively).
Russell is playing for a lottery team, as well. Unfortunately, his team doesn't know it, so he'll probably receive less royal jelly than many of his counterparts, as the Lakers play veterans ahead of him in a bid to make a playoff push. It probably doesn't help that the Lakers have a relatively soft start of the schedule, although nine of their first 15 games are on the road. His biggest hope would be to make a strong second-half push, after the Lakers come to grips with reality.
Winslow is probably the most ridiculous inclusion in the top five. There's a strong chance he'll be one of the leaders in DNP-CDs among lottery picks, unless the injury bug ravages the Heat again this season. Miami's roster is stacked, and the Heat have their eyes on a trip to the NBA Finals. Those things signal too light of a workload for Winslow to realistically compete for this award. In fact, I'd give both Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson better odds of winning.
That leaves us with Okafor and Mudiay as the clubhouse leaders for ROY. Both are the clear cornerstones of their respective franchises, and they are expected to get a lot of touches and shots and to lead their teams in scoring. However, Mudiay has the advantage over Okafor in two areas: First, he doesn't have to deal with another young teammate vying for minutes. Okafor and Nerlens Noel are incompatible on the floor, and even though Philly will probably play them simultaneously anyway -- it isn't as if the Sixers are losing sleep about the losses -- the fact that both players occupy similar areas of the floor offensively won't create the most conducive environment for Okafor to flex his offensive might. Second, as the primary ball handler, Mudiay has the luxury of basically calling his number as many times as he wants. Okafor must rely on Philly's subpar guard rotation to deliver him the ball in scoring position (or, really, at all), and that lack of control of his own destiny also creates a drag on his ROY chances.
Given all of that, here are my "Who will win ROY" rankings:
Emmanuel Mudiay
Jahlil Okafor
Karl-Anthony Towns
D'Angelo Russell
Stanley Johnson
Who should win?
This is as much of a no-brainer today as it was on June 25. Towns is by far the best prospect in the class, with a chance to be an impact player on both ends of the floor. Being around Kevin Garnett will accelerate his learning curve, and playing with unselfish players like Ricky Rubio and Andre Miller will ensure that he'll get better scoring opportunities than many of his counterparts. He might miss out on the recognition at the outset, but in time he'll join fellow No. 1 overall picks Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis as transformational big men who amazingly did not win ROY.