Reducing the value of an NBA player to a single number is tricky for a variety of reasons, including fit and the ways teammates interact with each other. Of course, that's never stopped the league from doing just that for free agents with the most important single-number rating: their salaries.
To try to project how much free agents will be worth, I've incorporated two ratings: player win percentages, the per-minute version of my box score-based wins above replacement player (WARP) metric, and ESPN's real plus-minus. Together, the two ratings give a holistic view of player performance.
Using an aging factor, I've projected both metrics for next season and combined them to create an estimate of wins generated based on this season's playing time and each player's injury history. Then, using the development of similar players at the same age from my SCHOENE projection system, I've projected 2016-17 and 2017-18 values for a total over the next three seasons -- about the average length of a contract for top free agents.
The most important step is multiplying each of those figures by the value of a win each season, which will soon change dramatically because the NBA salary cap is going up. I estimate buying a win in free agency will cost $2.2 million this summer, $2.9 million in 2016-17 and an incredible $3.4 million in 2017-18. So the most valuable players are those who will hold their value over the next three years.
Let's take a look at how that method ranks the top 30 free agents available, including some surprising results.
No. 1 LeBron James | SF
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year value: $156 million
2015-16 RPM: +9.0
2015-16 Win%: .732
James remains the league's best player by predictive RPM, and just two players (Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis, both under contract) have better projected win percentages. He will be massively underpaid at least until the cap jumps, and probably still then for a few years.
No. 2 DeAndre Jordan | C
Last team: Los Angeles Clippers
3-year value: $107 million
2015-16 RPM: +3.9
2015-16 Win%: .633
Because of his durability and high-percentage shooting, Jordan was an elite player last season even if he wasn't an elite defender. He ranked sixth in WARP in 2014-15 (15.4) and 10th in RPM wins above replacement (WAR). At 26, Jordan is more likely to hold his value over the next three years than the other top unrestricted free agents on the market. So he might be underrated even as a surefire max player.
No. 3 Kawhi Leonard | SF
Last team: San Antonio Spurs
3-year value: $101 million
2015-16 RPM: +8.2
2015-16 Win%: .647
Leonard finished fifth in RPM last season (+7.6), and at 23 he figures to take another step forward next season. Leonard's low minutes totals limit his value to some extent, but he'll be a tremendous value at the max, to which he verbally agreed with the Spurs on Tuesday.
No. 4 Kevin Love | PF
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year value: $89 million
2015-16 RPM: +4.0
2015-16 Win%: .664
When I projected 2015 free agency a year ago, Love topped the market. He got jumped by Jordan and Leonard because they outperformed expectations and he underperformed in his first year in Cleveland. As I wrote Monday, Love was still incredibly important for the Cavaliers and projects as an above-max player outside the context of how he's used.
Interested suitors shouldn't be too worried about Love's shoulder surgery. With the help of Rotowire's Jeff Stotts, I compiled a list of 45 past NBA veterans who have undergone similar procedures, either to repair a torn labrum (as with Love) or rotator cuff. The following season, they shot one percentage point worse on 2-point attempts than projected incorporating aging (.485 vs. an expected .486), two percentage points worse on 3s (.355 vs. .357) and five percentage points worse on free throws (.732 vs. .737). So we shouldn't expect surgery to have any noticeable effect on Love's play.
No. 5 Draymond Green | SF/PF
Last team: Golden State Warriors
3-year value: $88 million
2015-16 RPM: +6.4
2015-16 Win%: .551
Hopefully the last three games of the NBA Finals finished off any debate about whether Green is worth a maximum salary. By this projection, the max undervalues Green, largely because of his sky-high RPM -- eighth best in the NBA last season.
No. 6 Jimmy Butler | SG/SF
Last team: Chicago Bulls
3-year value: $87 million
2015-16 RPM: +3.9
2015-16 Win%: .531
SCHOENE is surprisingly skeptical about Butler's chances of retaining the improvement he made in going from a role player to a go-to scorer and All-Star last season. Nonetheless, he still projects as an above-max player because of his strong RPM and incredible durability.
No. 7 Paul Millsap | PF
Last team: Atlanta Hawks
3-year value: $73 million
2015-16 RPM: +3.2
2015-16 Win%: .575
Millsap's age (30) makes giving him a long-term contract a bit of a risk, but he projects to hold his value over the next three seasons, which would make him a good value at the max as the salary cap increases. Expect the 3-pointer to become a bigger part of Millsap's game as he ages.
No. 8 Danny Green | SG/SF
Last team: San Antonio Spurs
3-year value: $72 million
2015-16 RPM: +3.9
2015-16 Win%: .577
Grantland's Zach Lowe noted Tuesday on Twitter that Green is "maybe the most divisive free agent among team execs," who are split on whether he's worth eight figures. Consider this projection a ringing "yes." Because of his two-way contributions, Green has been an RPM standout, ranking 12th in the NBA last season. That's in the context of the San Antonio system, and Green's inability to create his own shot might be more of an issue elsewhere. His solid wing defense, however, should travel.
No. 9 LaMarcus Aldridge | PF
Last team: Portland Trail Blazers
3-year value: $69 million
2015-16 RPM: +3.7
2015-16 Win%: .516
Aldridge has long been a tricky player for WARP to rate because of the adjustment crediting players for shooting 3-pointers because of their spacing benefits. While Aldridge moved his game beyond the arc at times last season, he mostly spaces the floor by shooting long 2-pointers that also help draw his defender to the perimeter. As a result, I'm more inclined to trust his RPM, which would value him at $93.5 million -- fourth highest on this list -- over the next three seasons.
No. 10 Greg Monroe | C
Last team: Detroit Pistons
3-year value: $69 million
2015-16 RPM: +3.6
2015-16 Win%: .546
Monroe may be closer to the top tier of free agents than widely thought. He's always put up strong box-score stats, and while Monroe isn't a rim protector (he allowed 55.1 percent shooting as the primary defender on attempts within five feet, per SportVU camera tracking on NBA.com/Stats, putting him in the league's bottom 10 among players who defended five such shots per game), the Pistons actually defended better with him at center than Andre Drummond. Monroe just turned 25, so a four-year deal would take him through the prime of his career.
No. 11 Tim Duncan | PF/C
Last team: San Antonio Spurs
3-year value: $62 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.8
2015-16 Win%: .606
It's a little silly to project anything beyond year-to-year with Duncan, who still hasn't officially announced whether he even plans to play in 2015-16. (ESPN's Marc Stein reported last week the Spurs are operating under the assumption that Duncan will return.) Through age 39, Duncan has showed little sign of slowing down, so it may be more a matter of how long Duncan wants to play than how long he can play effectively.
No. 12 Marc Gasol | C
Last team: Memphis Grizzlies
3-year value: $62 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.7
2015-16 Win%: .534
Along with Aldridge, Gasol has the most surprisingly negative projection. His RPM has been more good than great the past two seasons, but he ranked 14th in the league in WARP. SCHOENE has been predicting Gasol's decline for a few years now, and it hasn't happened yet. It may be that his diverse skill set is too unique for a projection system built on similar players. Of course, even this conservative estimate exceeds the $60.7 million that's the maximum Gasol could make over the next three seasons.
No. 13 Khris Middleton | SG/SF
Last team: Milwaukee Bucks
3-year value: $62 million
2015-16 RPM: +4.8
2015-16 Win%: .475
Middleton was the face of last season's RPM All-Star team, ranking 10th in the NBA at +6.1. That obviously overstates Middleton's value, but he was an efficient scorer and he's developed into a strong wing defender. After the Bucks traded Brandon Knight, Middleton capably stepped into a larger offensive role, and at 23 he's probably not done growing as a player. So Milwaukee would be wise to match any offer to the restricted free agent.
No. 14 Tyson Chandler | C
Last team: Dallas Mavericks
3-year value: $56 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.8
2015-16 Win%: .537
After a down season with the Knicks, Chandler demonstrated that he's still an above-average starting center at age 32, ranking 24th in the league with 9.7 WARP. Injuries are the biggest reason to be skeptical of Chandler producing at such a high level over the next three years. Unfortunately, whoever signs Chandler won't be able to bring the Mavericks' training staff with him. Chandler missed 15 total games in his two years in Dallas, as compared to an average of 15.7 during his three years in New York.
No. 15 DeMarre Carroll | SG/SF
Last team: Atlanta Hawks
3-year value: $53 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.4
2015-16 Win%: .520
Carroll hits free agency coming off a career year at age 28. Fortunately, his 3-and-D skill set figures to age well, at least in the short term. Similar players via SCHOENE -- a group led by Bryon Russell, James Posey and Trevor Ariza -- maintained most of their value over the next three seasons, which combined with the rising cap should make it difficult to overpay Carroll.
No. 16 Goran Dragic | PG
Last team: Miami Heat
3-year value: $51 million
2015-16 RPM: +1.2
2015-16 Win%: .516
Because Dragic is already 29, I'd be a little wary of maxing him out over four years or the five years that only the Heat can offer. On the plus side, these projections can't entirely compensate for how Dragic's usage by the Phoenix Suns prior to last season's deadline trade with Miami limited his value. Dragic predictably rebounded post-trade, although not all the way to his 2013-14 All-NBA form.
No. 17 Wesley Matthews | SG
Last team: Portland Trail Blazers
3-year value: $51 million
2015-16 RPM: +1.2
2015-16 Win%: .518
This projection doesn't yet include any adjustment for the Achilles rupture Matthews suffered in March. The track record of players coming back from Achilles injuries should be scary for teams considering offering Matthews eight figures per year.
No. 18 Amir Johnson | PF/C
Last team: Toronto Raptors
3-year value: $48 million
2015-16 RPM: +4.1
2015-16 Win%: .486
An inaugural RPM All-Star when ESPN first introduced the stat in 2013-14, Johnson still rates as an elite contributor because of his defensive impact and could be a steal in free agency. A couple of caveats: While Johnson is only 28, he's played a decade in the NBA as the last player to be drafted out of high school prior to the age limit -- and has the ankles to prove it. As Johnson has slowed, he's no longer as effective chasing smaller players on the perimeter and may be most valuable strictly playing center.
No. 19 Monta Ellis | PG/SG
Last team: Dallas Mavericks
3-year value: $48 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.9
2015-16 Win%: .457
Ellis' box-score stats and his RPM tell very different stories about his value. After a solid start, his efficiency in Dallas ultimately wasn't much better than in previous stops. At the same time, the Mavericks scored efficiently with him on the court. In the right setting, playing next to a bigger guard who doesn't need the ball in his hands, Ellis can be a dangerous pick-and-roll player.
No. 20 Patrick Beverley | PG
Last team: Houston Rockets
3-year value: $45 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.3
2015-16 Win%: .470
Yet another RPM standout, Beverley's box-score stats plummeted last season because his 2-point percentage dropped from 47.3 percent to 42.6 percent. Odds are that's a fluke and Beverley will bounce back in 2015-16, though his aggressive style of play limits his durability (Beverley has missed precisely 26 games each of the past two seasons) and those injuries could have factored into his diminished effectiveness.
No. 21 Manu Ginobili | SG
Last team: San Antonio Spurs
3-year value: $45 million
2015-16 RPM: +4.1
2015-16 Win%: .546
Like Duncan, Ginobili will probably be a useful sixth man as long as he wants to play. Unlike Duncan, Ginobili's inability to log heavy minutes or stay healthy for 82 games hampers his value to some extent.
No. 22 Reggie Jackson | PG
Last team: Detroit Pistons
3-year value: $42 million
2015-16 RPM: +1.8
2015-16 Win%: .492
After being traded to Detroit at the deadline, Jackson averaged impressive numbers: 17.6 points, 9.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. Alas, those slightly overstated his effectiveness, since Jackson's true shooting percentage remained a below-average .511. Still, RPM has liked him as an above-average player all along, and at 25 Jackson isn't yet at his peak.
No. 23 Brandon Knight | PG
Last team: Phoenix Suns
3-year value: $42 million
2015-16 RPM: -1.2
2015-16 Win%: .504
The top player on this list with a negative RPM, Knight showed up on the opposite list of the RPM All-Stars -- my RPM mirage team. On the plus side, Knight is just 23 and has shown the ability to create his own shot and knock down open 3s. His projection would make him perfectly fairly paid if the Suns indeed sign him to a five-year, $70 million contract as reported by Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times.
No. 24 Robin Lopez | C
Last team: Portland Trail Blazers
3-year value: $42 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.1
2015-16 Win%: .480
Believe it or not, Robin projects as the more valuable Lopez twin on the market this summer for a couple of reasons. The first, naturally, is durability. While Brook played more games in 2014-15, he missed nearly all of two of the previous three seasons due to foot injuries that will always be a risk for recurring. Additionally, Robin rates as the far better player in RPM due to his defensive superiority. Even last season, Brook (-0.6) rated below average by RPM.
No. 25 Ed Davis | PF/C
Last team: Los Angeles Lakers
3-year value: $38 million
2015-16 RPM: +0.5
2015-16 Win%: .547
Inexplicably, Davis ended up signing a one-year contract for the veteran's minimum with the Lakers as an unrestricted free agent a year ago. If the strategy was to rebuild his value for another crack at the market, it worked. While Davis is limited defensively and shouldn't ideally play power forward because he doesn't space the floor at all, he's a fine reserve on a team that runs regular pick-and-rolls.
No. 26 Tobias Harris | SF/PF
Last team: Orlando Magic
3-year value: $38 million
2015-16 RPM: -1.4
2015-16 Win%: .487
Like Knight, Harris was a member of the RPM mirage teams because of his weak defense (-2.2 defensive RPM per 100 possessions), a stat that did not appear on the infographic touting his skills Harris' agency put together. Because of his age (not yet 23) and offensive ability, Harris is still a worthwhile free-agent gamble, though teams might have to overpay to convince the Magic not to match.
No. 27 Jae Crowder | SF/PF
Last team: Boston Celtics
3-year value: $37 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.5
2015-16 Win%: .473
Another RPM favorite because of his rugged defense, Crowder showed more offensive ability after a midseason trade to Boston, averaging 14.0 points per 36 minutes as a part-time starter. If he ever adds a 3-point dimension to his game, Crowder could be an elite role player. As it is, he's a valuable piece of a rotation at both forward spots.
No. 28 J.R. Smith | SG
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year value: $36 million
2015-16 RPM: +0.8
2015-16 Win%: .493
The New York Knicks traded Smith with Iman Shumpert in large part because they figured Smith would cut into their cap space this summer. Alas, after a strong run as a starter in Cleveland, Smith opted out of his contract and is projected to be worth $11.2 million next season alone by this method. Life comes at you fast.
No. 29 Thaddeus Young | PF
Last team: Brooklyn Nets
3-year value: $35 million
2015-16 RPM: +0.6
2015-16 Win%: .469
The Nets took off after adding Young at the trade deadline and pairing him with Brook Lopez in the frontcourt. Indeed, on Tuesday, Young verbally agreed to terms on four-year deal in the $50 million range reported as possible by ESPN's Mike Mazzeo would probably be a slight overpay, since Young will be on the decline by the final season of the contract.
No. 30 Iman Shumpert | SG/SF
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year value: $34 million
2015-16 RPM: +2.8
2015-16 Win%: .438
Shumpert's box-score stats have generally hovered just above replacement level. Even after joining the Cavaliers last season, he posted a below-average .508 true shooting percentage in a small offensive role. Shumpert is valuable largely because of his defense, however, and RPM rates him a top-10 guard at that end of the floor, making him an eight-figure player per year.
Next five: Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans ($34 million); Tristan Thompson, F/C, Cleveland Cavaliers ($34 million, R); Al-Farouq Aminu, F, Dallas Mavericks ($34 million); Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets ($33 million); Paul Pierce, F, Washington Wizards ($31 million)