In his remarkable 17-year NBA career, Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant has overcome nearly every obstacle he has faced. But nothing Bryant has dealt with will be as challenging as his comeback if, as the Lakers medical staff diagnosed (pending an MRI), he ruptured the Achilles tendon in his left leg in the fourth quarter of Friday's win over the Golden State Warriors.
Because Achilles injuries are relatively rare, they don't share the same stigma associated with the dreaded ACL tear and, more recently, microfracture knee surgery. However, a ruptured Achilles has historically been the most problematic injury for NBA players. Of the 22 players my research found who suffered full Achilles ruptures in the past two decades, more than a quarter -- including Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas -- saw the injury lead directly to their retirement. Several others were never the same.
Let's take a deeper look at the history of Achilles injuries, FAQ-style.
How long can Kobe expect to miss?
The recovery from a ruptured Achilles is usually quoted as six to 10 months, and that generally squares with the historical data. Voshon Lenard of the Denver Nuggets made the fastest recovery I found. After rupturing his Achilles in the 2004-05 season opener, Lenard returned for the final two games of the regular season, missing about five and a half months. The average rehab time, however, was closer to seven and a half months. That would peg Bryant's return sometime around the start of December.
Another way to consider the timeline is looking at other players who suffered Achilles ruptures in the month of April. That gives a pool of three players, none of whom was back in time for training camp. LaPhonso Ellis returned in mid-November 1997, Mehmet Okur in mid-December 2010 and Derrick McKey in late December 1997.
Who are examples of Achilles success stories?
The best-case scenario for Bryant is another superstar player who suffered an Achilles injury late in his career -- Dominique Wilkins of the Atlanta Hawks. After going down in late January 1992 at age 32, Wilkins was back by the start of the next season and actually improved his PER in 1992-93. Wilkins reached the All-Star Game the next two years after his injury before age grounded him in his mid-30s.
Wilkins was among several players who successfully came back from a ruptured Achilles in the 1990s. Players such as Ellis, McKey and Christian Laettner (injured during the 1998 lockout) provided several productive seasons after the injury. Somewhat surprisingly, improved methods for repairing the Achilles don't necessarily seem to have translated into better comebacks.
Which players have never been the same?
Besides the players forced into retirement after injury (two of whom, Thomas and Sam Vincent, surely would have continued their careers if healthy), other players returned at a lesser level of play. Elton Brand might be the best example. A two-time All-Star and one of the league's most underrated big men before rupturing his Achilles in August 2007, Brand saw his PER decline by more than a third in his first full season back. Although Brand was a useful role player in Philadelphia, he never lived up to a contract that paid him like the star he was before the injury.
Okur is another disturbing recent example. Okur ruptured his Achilles in the Utah Jazz's first playoff game in 2010. He played just 30 ineffective games over the next two seasons, battling back trouble, before retiring this past fall. Although Okur's combination of size and deep range figured to age well, he never regained his shooting touch after the injury.
How might Kobe's age affect his ability to come back?
Tough to say. As I noted last year when Chauncey Billups of the Los Angeles Clippers suffered a torn Achilles, there was no modern precedent for the injury among players in their mid-30s. (Bryant is 34 now and will be 35 in August.) So Billups, who was 35 when his injury occurred, is all we have now. Billups has been effective for the Clippers this season when he has played, but lingering effects from Achilles surgery and other injuries have limited him to just 20 games thus far.
Can we count out Kobe?
Never. This research supplies a general guideline for how Bryant's comeback might go, but each individual is unique, as is each injury. Bryant's famed work ethic and history of dealing well with less serious injuries are positive indicators for his chances of coming back as a productive player, albeit not at the same level as we've seen this season.