This year's free agent class is fine. That's not a exactly a dynamic way to describe a topic for which we'll expend so much time and energy writing about, but it fits. It's fine. Typical.
A strength of a free-agent class is really determined by the top players on the market. During the summers of 2010 and 2014, the power structure of the league was altered by free agency, both times because LeBron James changed teams. This year's market doesn't appear to have that franchise-altering player.
That changes next year when Kevin Durant finishes his contract with Oklahoma City, and for the first time is made available to all and sundry.
There are very good players who will become available July 1 when the league's moratorium begins in concert with free-agent wooing. James himself will likely be a member of that class, though no one expects him to talk with any team other than the Cleveland Cavaliers. Beyond James, there are 10 players who finished in the top 25 in wins above replacement player (WARP) last season who could conceivably be free agents.
One of those players is San Antonio's Tim Duncan, and it's safe to assume that next season he'll play either for the Spurs or no one at all. Another is Kevin Love, who has yet to decide whether to exercise his $16.7 million player option for next season with Cleveland.
Then you have three restricted free agents who will become very wealthy, but aren't likely to change teams: Chicago's Jimmy Butler, San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard and Golden State's Draymond Green. Whatever offers that trio might attract, their existing teams are almost certain to match. It's an interesting group nonetheless because of the spike in the cap next year. Already there are rumors Butler will solicit only short-term offers so that he can cash in even bigger next year. It's a risk because of injuries, but it's less of a risk for RFAs because they are at ages when not only are injuries less likely, but their on-court performances are on the ascension.
What we're left with is a strong group of second-tier unrestricted free agents, and others with player options who control their own destiny. Using the description "second-tier" sounds pejorative, but it's not. The top tier in the NBA consists of those upper-crust, top-fivers who any team would empty the bank accounts to acquire, because not only do they by themselves make a team relevant, but they have the kind of star power to attract other top free agents.
There are only around three to six such transcendent players in the league at a given time, sometimes fewer. If you're second-tier player behind those guys, it's a compliment. In this year's group, we're referring to players like Love, Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, Paul Millsap, Brook Lopez and Greg Monroe. You might possibly add Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic. (Lopez, Wade and Dragic all are still deciding on player options.) These players are very good, all-league type players. None of them are going to turn around a franchise by themselves, but most of them could be the final piece, or even the centerpiece, on an otherwise intact championship contender.
However, that top tier of elite players, the crème de la crème, is so coveted that teams begin making their case years in advance of any of them hitting the market. The Houston Rockets won the Dwight Howard sweepstakes a couple of years ago, but almost certainly would not have if they had not traded for James Harden. James and Chris Bosh would not have colluded to sign in Miami if Wade were not there. Flash back a decade ago, and you can also point to Wade being the bait that attracted Shaquille O'Neal to the Heat. Last summer, geographic sentimentality aside, James might not opt to go back to Cleveland had Kyrie Irving not been on board.
That brings us back to Durant. If he proves himself healthy during the 2015-16 season, he's the kind of player who can turn around the fortunes of a franchise. Right now, we don't know if he has any desire to do so. There is no obvious indication that he's itching to leave Oklahoma City, and the rumor mill has been telling us for a while that if Durant decides to change things up, it's going to be to play at home, like James, which would take him to the Washington Wizards.
That makes this exercise we're doing today theoretical, because we don't know if any team other than the Thunder or Wizards is a possibility. What we do know is that if OKC does not win the title next season, Durant will still be looking for his first ring after nine years in the league. One can assume that will be a big factor in any decision he makes on his next contract.
It doesn't hurt to dream, right? Let's run through a handful of scenarios of how teams might be able to use the 2015 free-agent class to position themselves for a run at Durant. And don't forget: With the cap shooting to as much as $88-90 million, there will be teams with money to spend a year from now.
The Celtics are a proud franchise in a big market with a fine young coach, an interesting collection of young talent, and plenty of future cap space. These things in themselves aren't likely to woo Durant. For that to happen, Boston would probably need to acquire a top-15 player between now and next summer, whether it's a free agent or a trade acquisition. Danny Ainge has certainly compiled a deep collection of trade assets, so that might position the Celtics for a splashy deal at any time. As for free agency, Monroe might be the most likely to take Boston's money. Would a foundation of Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Monroe be enough to turn Durant's head? Probably not. The Celtics need that impact trade.
Durant is friends with Derrick Rose and in a vacuum, the Bulls would be a darkhorse in the Durant sweepstakes. Chicago fans, who have seen their team come up short in pursuits of star free agents too many times, are likely rolling their eyes at the prospect. But consider this: Chicago's top priority in free agency this year is to retain Butler. If they can get him to commit long term, then after next season, Joakim Noah's contract comes off the books.
Rose will still be around and if all goes well, he will have regained his standing as an elite player. Perhaps Doug McDermott, still on his rookie contract, will have established himself. Butler will be in his prime. Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson are all signed through 2016-17 on team-friendly contracts, giving Chicago plenty of coverage in the event of Noah's departure. If Chicago locks down Butler for the current max, then with a little wrangling, Chicago could clear just enough cap space to fit in a max deal for Durant next year.
If James opts out and re-signs both this season and next, then the likely deals for him, Irving and Durant would in themselves account for about $74 million. But so what? And Cleveland's cap sheet, as of now, looks very clean after next season. If Durant becomes title-obsessed, wouldn't James be the first future teammate that comes to mind? However, for this to work, that means the Cavs wouldn't keep Love beyond next season. So if you're a pie-in-the-sky kind of Cavs fan, you're rooting for Love to opt-in for 2015-16 and then become a free agent next year.
Houston Rockets
Harden, of course, is a former teammate of Durant's, and KD would be hard-pressed to find a more powerful duo of future teammates than him and Dwight Howard, who has a player option for the 2016-17 season. The Rockets could make the cap math work -- Daryl Morey works the cap as well as anyone -- but it would probably mean avoiding any high-profile signings this summer, save for the hopeful retention of Patrick Beverley.
Yeah, the Clippers could make it work financially if they don't re-sign Jordan. That would be a big risk to take. But imagine a Durant-Chris Paul-Blake Griffin big three? Yikes.
The Lakers definitely are one of the teams that could really use a stepping-stone signing this summer to entice Durant. They'd also hope their young talent progresses quickly, and Durant isn't daunted to replace Kobe Bryant as the face of the Lakers. So imagine a core of Julius Randle, D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Ed Davis is joined by Gasol, and the Lakers make major strides next season.
The Lakers would then be positioned to sign both Durant and a second-tier star. Showtime is back! It all sounds like a long shot, but Lakers history has been dominated by these kinds of scenarios coming to fruition.
The Pellies aren't positioned to make a major splash in free agency this summer, and bucking up for a multi-year deal to keep Omer Asik isn't likely to send Durant dreaming about the Bayou. But we include New Orleans here because it's an awesome city. Who wouldn't want to live there? And, oh yeah, they have Anthony Davis, who just might be so good that every ring-chasing star wants to play with him.
The Knicks will have the money, but so will other teams. New York is an exciting city, but Durant can be a little prickly with the media, and that could work against the Big Apple. The Knicks aren't very good either. But if Phil Jackson can land Gasol or Aldridge, and the Knicks go on a run in the East this year behind a resurgent Carmelo Anthony, then who knows? It's hard to say which part of that pipe dream sounds the least realistic. Even under ideal circumstances, would Durant really want to play with Anthony?
There isn't much the Thunder can do in free agency this summer other than proving their commitment to spend for a winner by keeping their own free agent, Enes Kanter. But winning a title will likely be OKC's best pitch for keeping Durant. Or maybe he just flat doesn't want to leave.
Portland first has to keep Aldridge. Then, this fall, the Blazers will lock up Damian Lillard with a max extension to his rookie contract. Portland also needs to keep Wesley Matthews at a reasonable price tag and hope he returns from his Achilles injury at the same level of play. If the Blazers accomplish all of this, keep cap flexibility and enjoy another 50-plus win team, then maybe Durant sees himself as a possible final piece to that puzzle. Portland is another cool city, too, and Durant does have his shoe deal with nearby Nike.
While we figure it will take a max deal to keep Leonard, we don't know yet if Duncan and Manu Ginobili will return. And if they do, we don't know how much, or how little, they will need to be paid. The Spurs also will hope to re-sign Danny Green. Yet you still hear the Spurs as candidates to land one of the top free agents this summer. Let's say San Antonio ends up with Gasol or Aldridge, while Duncan and Ginobili walk away either this summer or next.
The Spurs have a new big three of Leonard, Gasol/Aldridge, and Tony Parker, with perhaps the best organization in sports behind them. Tiago Splitter might have to be moved, but the Spurs could be positioned to make a run at Durant, who played his one season of college ball up the road at Texas.
Washington Wizards
Durant's hometown team actually is positioned very well to make a run at bringing the star to the nation's capital. John Wall and Marcin Gortat already are on the books, and Bradley Beal will be beginning his rookie extension in 2016-17, while Otto Porter will be in the last year of his own rookie deal. It's not only an exciting base of young talent for Durant to join, but his game would fit the group perfectly. And it might not hurt that the Wizards play in the East, in the event that Durant tires of the grind in the powerful West. As for this summer, the Wizards don't have to do anything. They just need to go out and have another strong season in 2015-16.