The leaderboard for ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) this season looks familiar at the top. The first six players -- Stephen Curry, James Harden, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Anthony Davis -- will probably finish 1-6 in MVP voting, though not necessarily in that order. Two other members of the top 10 (DeMarcus Cousins and Damian Lillard) were All-Stars this season, and another (Kawhi Leonard) was last year's Finals MVP.
That leaves one outlier: Milwaukee Bucks wing Khris Middleton, who ranks seventh. Until a recent scoring binge (he's netted 30 points twice in the past four games), Middleton was an obscure member of a Milwaukee team that rarely plays on national TV, yet he's had a remarkable impact on his team's success. That makes him a perfect captain for this year's RPM All-Stars: players whose value can best be captured by looking at RPM.
I chose an RPM All-Star team last year when we first unveiled the stat on ESPN.com. This season's version does not include any of those players, anyone who actually made the All-Star team or even those who were seriously in the All-Star discussion (sorry, Draymond Green). Looking deeper under the radar, these RPM All-Stars -- five starters and five reserves -- stand out.
Starters:
George Hill | PG | Indiana Pacers | +3.1 RPM
The Pacers' surge back into an East playoff spot has coincided with Hill's return to full health; Indiana is a remarkable 15-3 with Hill in the starting lineup. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Hill on the floor, according to NBA.com/Stats, and he's one of four players in the league averaging at least 18 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists per 36 minutes. The others, per Basketball-Reference.com: James Harden, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook.
Danny Green | SG | San Antonio Spurs | +4.1 RPM
Often overlooked on a team that also features Leonard and Manu Ginobili on the wings, Green has been an ideal "3-and-D" role player, a category that tends to come out better in RPM than box-score stats. He's made at least 40 percent of his 3-point attempts all four seasons in San Antonio, and his 2.4 triples per game rank seventh in the NBA. RPM also rates Green a top 10 defender at shooting guard.
Khris Middleton | SF | Milwaukee Bucks | +6.3 RPM
To be clear, Middleton isn't really a top-10 player. In particular, his defensive rating (4.1 points per 100 possessions better than league average, fourth among all perimeter players) overstates his contributions at that end. Middleton's multiyear RPM (plus-1.3 on defense, plus-3.9 overall) is probably a better gauge of his ability. That still puts Middleton among the league's top 25 players, which is not apparent from his per-game averages (12.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.1 APG). But he's an efficient scorer and a strong defender, and Milwaukee is 12.3 points per 100 possessions better with Middleton on the floor.
Cody Zeller | PF | Charlotte Hornets | +4.2 RPM
Zeller's promotion to the starting lineup has been one factor in the Hornets' turning around their season. Charlotte, 4-12 when Zeller replaced Marvin Williams at power forward, has gone 22-22 with Zeller as the starter. While Williams got crushed in the paint, Zeller has enough size to hold his own down low as well as the athleticism to chase stretch 4s to the perimeter.
Andrew Bogut | C | Golden State Warriors | +3.7 RPM
Though teammate Draymond Green has entered the defensive player of the year debate, it's Bogut who has the league's best defensive RPM -- 5.9 points per 100 possessions better than an average defender. Per NBA.com/Stats, opponents have made 40.9 percent of their shots within five feet when Bogut is the primary defender, the league's third-lowest mark.
Reserves:
Nick Calathes | PG | Memphis Grizzlies | +1.8 RPM
After completing a suspension for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, Calathes got more DNP-CDs than games played in November and December. In 2015, however, he's emerged as an unlikely defensive terror. Calathes has the NBA's best steal rate (4.6 percent), and per NBA.com/Stats the Grizzlies are allowing 9.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Tony Allen | SG | Memphis Grizzlies | +3.7 RPM
It's an all-grit-and-grind reserve backcourt for the RPM All-Stars. Only Draymond Green (plus-4.5) rates better defensively by RPM among perimeter players than Allen (plus-4.4). When he's shared the court with Calathes, Memphis has allowed an 85.5 defensive rating -- nearly 12 points fewer per 100 possessions than the Warriors' league-leading 97.4 rating.
Jared Dudley | SF | Milwaukee Bucks | +3.5 RPM
The Clippers have spent the whole season searching for a backup wing who can lock down defensively and make open shots -- in short, someone a lot like Dudley, who has emerged as a key part of the effective Milwaukee second unit after the Clippers traded him last summer. Healthy after dealing with a patella injury in his left knee in 2013-14, Dudley has made 39.9 percent of his 3s while defending multiple positions.
Al-Farouq Aminu | PF | Dallas Mavericks | +2.8 RPM
Playing for the Pelicans, Aminu posted a solid plus-2.1 RPM last season, but he could only get the veterans minimum from the Mavericks in free agency. He's proved to be a bargain at that price, improving on his RPM by posting the best block and steal rates of his career. The Mavericks are allowing 5.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Jusuf Nurkic | C | Denver Nuggets | +3.2 RPM
Since Nurkic has started fewer than half of his 45 games, I'm taking him as a reserve on the RPM All-Stars. Nurkic leads all rookies in RPM. He's proved to be a quick study defensively. Nurkic is one of four players with a steal rate better than 2 percent and a block rate better than 5 percent, and the Nuggets' defensive rating is 6.5 points lower with him on the floor.
News and Notes
• Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving put together one of the season's great individual performances Thursday night, scoring a franchise-record 57 points to help Cleveland rally from down six with 33 seconds remaining and beat the San Antonio Spurs in overtime. Not only was Irving incredibly prolific; he was remarkably accurate, making all seven of his 3-point attempts (two of them in the final minute to tie the score) and all 10 of his free throws.
Largely because of the 3-point barrage, Irving put together one of the most efficient high-scoring games in recent league history. Of the player games with 57 points or more in Basketball-Reference.com's database (back through 1985-86), Irving needed the third-lowest number of shooting possessions (including both his 32 shots and 10 foul shots). Michael Jordan needed just 27 shots and 19 free throws to score 59 points in April 1988, and Karl Malone reached 61 on 26 field-goal attempts (making 21) and 23 free throw attempts in January 1990.
As the chart shows, Irving's .783 true shooting percentage ranks sixth in the last three decades in games with 57 points or more. Two of the five better games came last season: Irving's teammate LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony of the New York Knicks, both against the Charlotte Hornets.
• The decision by Memphis Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger to rest three players (Tony Allen, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph) in Thursday's road game against the Washington Wizards will be interesting to revisit at season's end. The Grizzlies actually led after one quarter, but were outscored 34-14 in the second period and never competitive thereafter.
Joerger might have figured winning on the second end of a back-to-back without injured point guard Mike Conley (dealing with a sprained ankle suffered the night before in a loss at Boston) was unlikely anyway, but Memphis doesn't have the second seed in the Western Conference anywhere close to locked up. The Portland Trail Blazers are now just 1.5 games back of the Grizzlies, with Houston and the L.A. Clippers also lurking. By virtue of their favorable schedule down the stretch (and strong point differential), the Clippers might be the biggest threat despite currently ranking sixth in the West. My simulations of the remainder of the season have them finishing second nearly as often as Memphis -- both about 35 percent of the time, with Houston and Portland accounting for most of the rest of the scenarios.
• If the season ended today, the Oklahoma City Thunder would be in the lottery, with the New Orleans Pelicans (a half-game ahead) claiming the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. But the season doesn't end today, and the odds are still in favor of Oklahoma City finishing eighth. The Thunder have been the better team over the course of the season in terms of point differential (plus-2.4 as compared to plus-0.8 for the Pelicans) despite being outscored during the stretch both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook missed due to injury. In games Westbrook has played, Oklahoma City has outscored opponents by 4.4 points per game, which would rank seventh in the NBA.
Since point differential is a better predictor of future performance than record, projection systems tend to favor the Thunder. The Hollinger Playoff Odds give them a 70 percent chance of reaching the postseason, and they make the playoffs in 77.0 percent of my simulations (which also credit Oklahoma City for superior preseason expectations). While it's tempting to consider the possibility that both the Thunder and Pelicans make it, knocking out the reeling Dallas Mavericks, that happened in just 10 out of the 1,000 simulations I ran. The Mavericks' 4.5-game edge will be difficult to overcome with so little of the season left to play.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.