With the main course of 2014 free agency completed, it's not too early to look ahead at the menu for next summer. Last week, Insider's Amin Elhassan broke down his top 2015 free agents. Now, I'm going to provide a statistical perspective.
As with my ranking of this year's free agents, I've generated projections using a combination of my wins above replacement player (WARP) ratings and the development of players of the same age from the SCHOENE projection system, as well as ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), projected using a standard aging adjustment. The result is an estimate of how many WARP each free agent will produce during the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons.
Those projections yield three primary takeaways:
1. Kevin Love is far and away the most valuable free agent potentially on the market
The gap between Love's 25.7 projected WARP and the next-best free agent (DeAndre Jordan at 18.5), more than seven wins over the two seasons, is as large as the gap between No. 2 and No. 20 on the market. Not only has Love been the most productive of the 2015 free agents, but his age (25) means he's more likely to maintain his value over the next three seasons. The class would take a big hit if Love opts into the final season of his contract as a condition of a trade.
2. 2015 is a great year to shop for big men ...
Of the 22 potential free agents projected to produce at least 11 WARP over 2015-16 and 2016-17, an incredible 13 are big men. Depending upon how you categorize Tim Duncan, nearly a quarter of the league's starting centers could be on the market next summer, along with All-Star power forwards Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Paul Millsap.
3. ... but not wing players
One reason both Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons got max-type offers as restricted free agents this summer might be the lack of options on the market next offseason. Just five of the top 22 potential free agents are wing players, and three of them (Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and Klay Thompson) are eligible for rookie extensions this fall that could keep them from ever seeing free agency.
Here's a look at the full class, grouped by type of free agent.
Unrestricted max-contract candidates
UNRESTRICTED MAX CANDIDATES
Six unrestricted free agents will be reasonable candidates for maximum-salary offers next summer. Aldridge and Marc Gasol, as well as Love, are also certain to get maxed out if they want. Duncan could too, but he's already set a precedent of taking less money in his golden years.
The more interesting free agents are DeAndre Jordan and Goran Dragic. Because of Jordan's age (he turned 26 this summer) and strong 2013-14 season, he actually has the second-best WARP projection of any 2015 free agent. Another solid campaign would ensure that a rival team comes calling with a max offer in the hopes of stealing Jordan from the Clippers.
Coming off an All-NBA third team campaign, Dragic figures to be the top perimeter player on the market if he opts out of his contract, which could make him max-worthy to a team in need of a point guard.
Eligible for rookie extensions
ROOKIE EXTENSION ELIGIBLE
Teams can sign players from the 2011 draft who are entering their fourth seasons to rookie contract extensions this summer and fall, keeping them from becoming restricted free agents in 2015. Already, the Cleveland Cavaliers have taken No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving off the market. After winning Finals MVP honors, Kawhi Leonard is likely to join him in getting a max extension. Leonard's WARP projection is held down by his limited playing time last season (29.1 minutes per game). On a per-minute basis, he's the best player in the group.
By the numbers, young point guards Kemba Walker and Ricky Rubio are ahead of wings Jimmy Butler and Klay Thompson. Scoring point guards like Walker tend to develop well as their careers go on, while Rubio's high steal rate powers a strong RPM rating. For all the hype about Thompson, he's rated as a below-average player by WARP because his scoring efficiency has been only slightly better than average. RPM rates Thompson higher because of his defensive prowess.
Nikola Vucevic and Kenneth Faried are the other two players from the 2011 draft who have firmly established themselves as starters. Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris will have the opportunity to do so this season, while Brandon Knight can prove last season's improvement as a scorer was more than a fluke.
Other unrestricted free agents
OTHER UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
A handful of groups dominate the remainder of next summer's unrestricted crop:
3-and-D wings
If teams continue to pay the same kind of premium for outside shooting that they paid this summer, it's great news for DeMarre Carroll, Danny Green and Wesley Matthews. These quality wing defenders can keep defenses honest with their 3-point range. Mike Dunleavy isn't the same kind of defender and Corey Brewer is a more questionable shooter, but put them in this group, too.
Defense-first centers
The other well-stocked group of role players features quality defenders up front. Omer Asik, Roy Hibbert, Amir Johnson, Robin Lopez and Anderson Varejao all qualify. Surprisingly, Lopez has the best projection because of his solid offensive contributions for the Portland Trail Blazers this past season -- better even than his brother, Brook, due to the latter's injury.
Volume scorers
The projections aren't particularly kind to either Monta Ellis or Rudy Gay, but both will get paid for the points they can put on the board. The borderline case is J.R. Smith, who might lose money by opting out of the final season of the contract he signed last summer.
Aging veterans
Of this group, former Utah Jazz teammates Al Jefferson and Millsap are the youngest and most valuable, though teams could overpay by signing them to long-term contracts well into their 30s. Tyson Chandler will try to duplicate the terrific contract year he had the last time he played for the Dallas Mavericks. David West could opt out of the final season of his contract to secure one last multiyear deal.
The long-term projections are surprisingly pessimistic about a pair of aging point guards, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo.
At this point in their careers, Parker and Manu Ginobili aren't going anywhere, and they'll hope Gregg Popovich's minutes management slows the aging process. Rondo, a year removed from ACL surgery, will have to demonstrate that he can stay healthy entering free agency.
Other restricted free agents
OTHER RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
Besides fourth-year players who don't get extended, former second-round picks and undrafted players also become restricted free agents. That group will be highlighted next summer by a pair of players from my All-Defensive Teams, Patrick Beverley and Draymond Green.
If Rubio and Walker sign extensions, Beverley might be the second-best point guard on the market, while Green's impressive turn as a small-ball power forward in the playoffs could convince teams he's more than just a super-sub.