Editor's Note: Signings are not official until the NBA's moratorium on free agent signings conclude on July 10.
There are two important questions regarding NBA players who became free agents at midnight ET: How much are they worth, and how much are they going to make? Insider's Amin Elhassan has addressed the latter question, projecting contracts for his top 30 free agents, and I'm here to provide a quantitative look at how much value the 30 free agents rated best will provide over the next three seasons.
To evaluate free agents, I've incorporated two ratings: my own player win percentages, based on the box score, and ESPN's real plus-minus. Together, the two ratings give a complete view of player performance.
Using an aging factor, I've projected both metrics for next season and combined them to a create a wins above replacement player (WARP) metric that estimates value based on this season's playing time and each player's injury history. Then, using the development of similar players at the same age from my SCHOENE projection system, I've projected 2015-16 and 2016-17 WARP totals for a total value over the next three seasons -- about the typical length of a contract in free agency.
Let's take a look at how that method ranks the top 30 free agents available.
1. LeBron James, F, Miami Heat
3-year WARP: 53.8 | 2014-15: 21.1 WARP, .780 Win%, +8.4 RPM
Using this exclusive analysis, I've determined that James is the best free agent available. If the ranking itself is not notable, James' dominance over the rest of the field is. He rates as more than 60 percent more valuable than any other free agent, making him a bargain at his maximum possible salary.
2. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks
3-year WARP: 32.1 | 2014-15: 11.0 WARP, .606 Win%, +2.5 RPM
While Anthony looks better in the box score than RPM, overall he grades out as the second-best free agent on the market. As a 10-win player over the next three seasons, Anthony should be a decent value during that span. It's the last two years of a possible five-year, $129 million max contract from the New York Knicks that might get ugly.
3. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors
3-year WARP: 31.3 | 2014-15: 11.5 WARP, .613 Win%, +3.8 RPM
Dismiss Lowry's 2013-14 campaign as a fluke at your peril. Lowry's per-minute stats were only slightly better than his last season in Houston, and he's long been a favorite of advanced metrics. Lowry might not play any better than he did at age 27 (traditionally the peak age for box-score stats), but similar players have maintained their value over the following three seasons, which makes Lowry as attractive as any free agent not named LeBron.
4. Dirk Nowitzki, F/C, Dallas Mavericks
3-year WARP: 30.7 | 2014-15: 11.4 WARP, .592 Win%, +6.0 RPM
At age 36, Nowitzki remains remarkably productive, especially in the eyes of RPM, which rated him the league's fifth-best player last season on a per-minute basis. As tough as long-range projections are at this age, Nowitzki should remain valuable so long as he wants to keep playing.
5. Eric Bledsoe, PG, Phoenix Suns (R)
3-year WARP: 26.0 | 2014-15: 8.6 WARP, .549 Win%, +4.3 RPM
The top restricted free agent on the market, Bledsoe particularly shines in RPM's defensive calculations. His plus-4.0 defensive RPM last season was far and away the best of any point guard; Ricky Rubio and Jrue Holiday were the two others above 2.0. Bledsoe's offense made strides toward catching up last season, his first as a starter, when he improved his true shooting percentage (TS%) from .513 to .578 with improved finishing around the rim.
6. Greg Monroe, F/C, Detroit Pistons (R)
3-year WARP: 24.0 | 2014-15: 7.6 WARP, .545 Win%, +2.3 RPM
In the wake of a down season as part of an ill-fitting Detroit frontcourt, it's easy to forget how impressive Monroe was during his first three seasons. Nobody from the 2010 draft was more valuable through 2012-13 than Monroe, who totaled 27.4 WARP. Though Monroe doesn't have a clear defensive position (he's a subpar rim protector as a center, but struggles defending quicker power forwards), his RPM is equally strong. Just 24, Monroe belongs among the top free agents on the market.
7. Chandler Parsons, SF, Houston Rockets (R)
3-year WARP: 23.1 | 2014-15: 7.6 WARP, .513 Win%, +2.1 RPM
It's unclear whether Parsons is really on the market or just awaiting a new deal from the Rockets, who turned down the chance to pay him $964,750 this season in order to make him a restricted free agent. If he's interested, Parsons' 3-and-D skill set plus ability to create his own offense should make him popular.
8. Isaiah Thomas, G, Sacramento Kings (R)
3-year WARP: 22.9 | 2014-15: 8.7 WARP, .563 Win%, +2.4 RPM
Quietly, Thomas had an outstanding season as a starter for the Kings, posting a career-high 20.5 PER. Remarkably efficient for a shoot-first point guard, Thomas has posted precisely a .574 TS% in all three of his NBA campaigns. Because of his size and tendency to shoot before passing, it's easy to dismiss how much he helps a team, but RPM rates him as positively as box-score stats. If Sacramento is willing to let Thomas leave -- seemingly less likely after it passed on drafting a point guard -- Thomas could be the best player on the market to actually change teams.
9. Chris Bosh, F/C, Miami Heat
3-year WARP: 20.7 | 2014-15: 7.4 WARP, .505 Win%, +3.8 RPM
Bosh's low projected win percentage reflects that similar players tend to drop off by an average of nearly 10 percent at the same age. However, there's little sign that Bosh's game is doing anything but evolving as he becomes more dangerous as a 3-point threat. He remains a strong presence in terms of RPM and should be more valuable than any of the restricted free agents next season, though at 30, Bosh is now on the back nine of his career.
10. Gordon Hayward, G/F, Utah Jazz (R)
3-year WARP: 20.1 | 2014-15: 6.4 WARP, .517 Win%, +0.9 RPM
As much as Hayward struggled in a leading role last season, there are positives in his stat line. Hayward improved his assist rate to the point where it would be credible for a backup point guard, and also stepped up his rebounding. Most of his downturn on offense can be tied to shooting 30.4 percent from 3-point range a season after hitting at a 41.5 percent clip. Given the volatile nature of 3-point percentage, Hayward is nearly certain to do better next season.
11. Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat
3-year WARP: 19.7 | 2014-15: 8.8 WARP, .630 Win%, +1.7 RPM
Wade's 2014-15 projection ranks him fifth among free agents. From there, he appears headed to a steady downturn, which explains why a player who has long been among the league's 10 best doesn't even rank as one of the top 10 free agents available this summer. At this point, it's hard to justify a max salary for a part-time Wade.
12. Marcin Gortat, C, Washington Wizards
3-year WARP: 18.1 | 2014-15: 6.7 WARP, .484 Win%, +3.5 RPM
Update: Gortat agreed to a five-year deal with the Wizards worth a fully guaranteed $60 million, with neither a player nor a team option entering the final season. The deal can't officially be signed until July 10, when a league-wide moratorium on signings and trades is lifted.
Like Bosh, Gortat could be in for a downturn next season. Similar players dropped by 6 percent at the same age. Fortunately, Gortat is starting in a good place, particularly in terms of RPM, which ranked him third among centers in value over replacement. A four-year contract, which would take Gortat through age 34, could still get a bit dicey.
13. Patty Mills, PG, San Antonio Spurs
3-year WARP: 17.3 | 2014-15: 5.5 WARP, .587 Win%, +3.4 RPM
It's easy to dismiss Mills as a product of the Spurs' system, and certainly he was nowhere near as effective in his first NBA stop with the Portland Trail Blazers. But Mills has long excelled for the Australian national team, and his shooting ability and quickness will make him dangerous anywhere the floor is well spaced. SCHOENE offers an interesting comparison to Dana Barros, another sharpshooting mighty mite who scored 20.6 PPG and made the All-Star Game in 1995. Mills, who averaged 19.5 points per 36 minutes last season, could be capable of similar heroics as a full-time starter. In seven career starts, he's scored 17.6 PPG.
14. Trevor Ariza, SF, Washington Wizards
3-year WARP: 15.8 | 2014-15: 6.4 WARP, .542 Win%, +0.6 RPM
The question for teams pursuing Ariza is how much his improved 3-point marksmanship last season (180 makes at a career-best 40.7 percent accuracy) is attributable to John Wall's ability to set up the corner 3. That kind of shooting turned Ariza from a fringe starter into a premier 3-and-D role player. Don't count on a repeat performance.
15. Chris Andersen, C, Miami Heat
3-year WARP: 15.4 | 2014-15: 5.6 WARP, .562 Win%, +3.9 RPM
Because Birdman's flight time is limited to about 20 minutes per night, he's merely a role player. But what a role player. Both box-score stats and RPM are enamored of Andersen's impact, and though he'll turn 36 this month, another contender would be wise to see if he can be tempted to leave South Beach for a raise on a short-term deal.
16. Paul Pierce, F, Brooklyn Nets
3-year WARP: 15.0 | 2014-15: 6.1 WARP, .536 Win%, +2.0 RPM
Though Pierce has to be considered a year-to-year proposition at age 36, he demonstrated last season that he's got plenty to contribute to a good team. The move to play as an undersized power forward helped make Pierce more dangerous offensively and mitigated the effect of his declining quickness.
17. Channing Frye, PF, Phoenix Suns
3-year WARP: 14.5 | 2014-15: 5.3 WARP, .467 Win%, +4.9 RPM
No big man available in free agency shoots better from deep than Frye, who made 160 3-pointers at a 37 percent clip while returning from a heart infection that sidelined him all of 2012-13. That shooting ability gives Frye strong defensive gravity -- he draws defenders, opening things up for his teammates, which is why RPM rated him behind only Nowitzki among the best offensive big men. At the midlevel, Frye would be a bargain addition for a contender.
18. Lance Stephenson, SG, Indiana Pacers
3-year WARP: 13.6 | 2014-15: 4.5 WARP, .454 Win%, +1.2 RPM
Stephenson's poor 2011-12 still drags down his box-score projection. RPM gives him more credit for his ability to match up with either wing spot. That defense, plus Stephenson's creativity in transition, makes him an above-average shooting guard. Still, Stephenson is in danger of being overpaid unless he continues to improve as dramatically as he has the past two seasons.
19. Luol Deng, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year WARP: 13.4 | 2014-15: 5.4 WARP, .452 Win%, +2.6 RPM
Deng represents the biggest discrepancy between box-score stats and RPM. Credit his defense for the difference. Even the more optimistic view suggests Deng could be overpaid, especially on a four-year deal. Deng is 29 and carries far more mileage; he's closing in on 25,000 career minutes.
20. Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami Heat
3-year WARP: 12.8 | 2014-15: 5.6 WARP, .513 Win%, +1.5 RPM
With his dismal NBA Finals, Chalmers left a poor impression in the minds of NBA teams. Looking past that series, Chalmers is a capable defender and solid 3-point shooter, making him a good fit at point guard for teams with a star wing who dominates the ball.
21. Vince Carter, G/F, Dallas Mavericks
3-year WARP: 12.7 | 2014-15: 5.1 WARP, .486 Win%, +3.5 RPM
Carter still has plenty to contribute in his second career as a role player. One of the league's top reserves in 2013-14, he remains a 40 percent 3-point shooter and a well-rounded wing who would fit nicely on a contender's bench.
22. Josh McRoberts, PF, Charlotte Hornets
3-year WARP: 12.6 | 2014-15: 4.2 WARP, .492 Win%, +0.3 RPM
"McBob" hits free agency after a career year in which his playmaking from the high post was a key part of Charlotte's offense. McRoberts also developed into a credible stretch power forward, making 105 3-pointers at a 36.1 percent clip. He'd be especially valuable in a triangle-influenced offense that emphasizes passing from its big men.
23. Pau Gasol, F/C, Los Angeles Lakers
3-year WARP: 11.6 | 2014-15: 4.6 WARP, .503 Win%, +0.5 RPM
Both box-score stats and RPM regard Gasol as an average player at this stage of his career. As a cog in an offense rather than the focal point, as he was last season in Los Angeles, Gasol can still have value. His lost lift makes it more difficult for him to help defensively.
24. Ryan Kelly, F, Los Angeles Lakers (R)
3-year WARP: 11.5 | 2014-15: 3.5 WARP, .481 Win%, +1.5 RPM
From the wreckage of the Lakers' season, Kelly emerged as a quality young role player. Opponents fear his 3-point shooting more than his 33.8 percent accuracy would indicate, and Kelly demonstrated the ability to play both forward spots. The Lakers will probably match any offer to the restricted free agent, but it's worth testing them with an offer in the $3 million range annually.
25. Jodie Meeks, SG, Los Angeles Lakers
3-year WARP: 11.2 | 2014-15: 3.6 WARP, .475 Win%, -0.4 RPM
Meeks' value to the Lakers was a bit more obvious. He shot a career-best 40.1 percent from 3-point range as well as hitting better than 50 percent of his 2s, good for a .601 TS%. Solid on defense and at creating his own shot for a shooting specialist, Meeks would help a number of contenders.
26. Jameer Nelson, PG, Orlando Magic
3-year WARP: 11.2 | 2014-15: 4.8 WARP, .503 Win%, +0.6 RPM
Waived by the Magic on the eve of free agency, Nelson now figures to become a top-tier backup point guard. His assist rate ranked just outside the league's top 10 last season, but Nelson needs to bounce back after two down seasons shooting the 3-pointer.
27. Patrick Patterson, PF, Toronto Raptors (R)
3-year WARP: 10.4 | 2014-15: 3.4 WARP, .467 Win%, +1.5 RPM
Update: Patterson has reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $18 million deal with the Raptors. The deal can't officially be signed until July 10, when a league-wide moratorium on signings and trades is lifted.
A capable stretch power forward (he shot 38.6 percent from 3-point range in 2012-13 before slipping to 36.4 percent last season) who can hold his own defensively, Patterson is also just 25 years old. Though good enough to start in the right situation, Patterson is better cast as a big-minute reserve.
28. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, New Orleans Pelicans
3-year WARP: 10.3 | 2014-15: 3.4 WARP, .449 Win%, +1.5 RPM
RPM is especially fond of Aminu, a physical wing who is a major presence on the glass from the perimeter. Aminu's non-shooting, a major issue in New Orleans, may be less problematic with better shooters around him.
29. C.J. Miles, G/F, Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year WARP: 8.7 | 2014-15: 2.7 WARP, .476 Win%, +1.1 RPM
Update: According to ESPN's Marc Stein, Miles has agreed to a four-year deal worth $18 million with Indiana. After failing to match his reputation as a shooter with his performance in Utah, Miles lived up to the hype in two seasons with Cleveland, knocking down 38.8 percent from 3-point range. RPM is also enamored of his long-limbed defense, and though it seems Miles has been in the league forever, he's only 27.
30. Spencer Hawes, C, Cleveland Cavaliers
3-year WARP: 8.5 | 2014-15: 3.2 WARP, .520 Win%, -1.8 RPM
Hawes is the rare shooting big whose RPM is below average. A poor shot-blocker for a 7-footer, he rates as weak defensively, which would be less of a problem in a backup role than as a starter.
Next five: Avery Bradley, G, Boston Celtics (8.2, RFA, ); Andray Blatche, PF, Brooklyn Nets (7.9); Greivis Vasquez, PG, Toronto Raptors (7.6, RFA); Devin Harris, G, Dallas Mavericks (7.3); Boris Diaw, PF, San Antonio Spurs (7.3)