Draft analysts rated this year's MLB draft as the best in more than a decade. It was loaded with college players because the five-round draft in the COVID-affected 2020 season pushed more high school kids to college than a typical year. It should be no surprise, then, that 17 of the 28 first-round picks were college selections.
Let's take a look at each team and pick a player most likely to reach the majors first. It makes sense that a lot of those will be first-round picks -- and hopefully we'll even see a few of them in the majors next season. Teams are listed in draft order, so let's kick it off with the Pirates and their No. 1 overall pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates
First-round pick: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
First to majors: Skenes
Skenes was widely regarded as the best pitching prospect in draft history since Stephen Strasburg -- if not the best ever -- and broke former LSU pitching star Ben McDonald's school and SEC record with 209 strikeouts thanks to a fastball that reached triple digits and a wipeout slider.
Strasburg, 2009: 11 GS, 55 IP (debuted June 8, 2010)
Mark Prior, 2001: 9 GS, 51 IP (debuted May 22, 2002)
McDonald, 1989: 2 GS, 10 IP (debuted Sept. 6, 1989)
Gerrit Cole, 2011: 38 GS, 200 IP (debuted June 11, 2013)
David Price, 2007: 19 GS, 109 IP (debuted Sept. 14, 2008)
McDonald made a few bullpen appearances for the Orioles in his draft season before returning to the minors to begin the 1990 season -- not to mention 1989 is ancient history compared to the way pitchers are handled now. The Strasburg path makes the most sense: He pitched in the Arizona Fall League in his draft year before spending the first two months of 2010 in the minors. The Pirates have added incentive, however, to start Skenes in the majors, as they would be rewarded with a pick at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft if Skenes won Rookie of the Year. It wouldn't be unprecedented to start him in the majors; Mike Leake started with the Reds in 2010 after previously appearing only in the Arizona Fall League.
Washington Nationals
First-round pick: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
First to majors: Crews
Crews obliterated the SEC, hitting .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs in 71 games, and he should move up the minor league system quickly, thanks in part to excellent strike zone judgment (71 walks, 46 strikeouts). As a basis of comparison, here's how quickly the past five top SEC hitters drafted in the top 10 reached the majors:
Jacob Berry, LSU, 2022 (sixth overall): Has struggled big-time in Single-A and High-A, hitting .216.
Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas, 2020 (second): Had some injury issues, now raking in Triple-A.
Austin Martin, Vanderbilt, 2020 (fifth): Hit .241 last season in Double-A, but injuries have limited him to 14 games this season.
JJ Bleday, Vanderbilt, 2019 (fourth): Debuted July 23, 2022, but has hit .187 in 116 MLB games and, like Martin, is already with his second organization.
Jonathan India, Florida, 2018 (fifth): Debuted April 1, 2021.
The pandemic affected the timelines for a couple of those players, but it's interesting that starring in the SEC and getting drafted high hasn't led to automatic success. Crews is rated higher than any of those five, and you could envision a scenario where if he signs quickly, he could even play Double-A this summer and compete for a starting job next spring training, with the Nationals looking to reap that same Rookie of the Year incentive.
Detroit Tigers
First-round pick: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community HS (Indiana)
First to majors: Max Anderson, IF, Nebraska (second round)
The Tigers selected Clark over SEC standout Wyatt Langford, so they certainly hope he moves quickly -- perhaps as fast as Riley Greene, another high school outfielder who was drafted fifth overall in 2019 and reached the majors in June 2022, with a COVID interruption in there. However, Greene had more present power than Clark, so let's go with Anderson, who hit .414 for the Cornhuskers with power (21 home runs) and excellent contact rates (29 K's). He'll need to find a defensive home -- he lacks the range for second base and the arm for third -- so he might end up at first base.
Texas Rangers
First-round pick: Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
First to majors: Langford
ESPN draft analyst Kiley McDaniel had Langford No. 1 on his board, so it will be fascinating to watch him versus Crews in the upcoming years, let alone Langford versus Clark. Draft-year stats for some recent SEC stars:
Crews: .426/.567/.713, 18 HR, 71 BB, 46 SO
Langford: .373/.498/.784, 21 HR, 56 BB, 44 SO
Berry: .370/.464/.630, 15 HR, 27 BB, 22 SO
Spencer Jones: .370/.460/.644, 12 HR, 32 BB, 64 SO
Bleday: .347/.465/.701, 27 HR, 61 BB, 58 SO
India: .350/.497/.717, 21 HR, 60 BB, 56 SO
Nick Senzel: .354/.456/.598, 8 HR, 40 BB, 21 SO
Pete Alonso: .374/.469/.659, 14 HR, 31 BB, 31 SO
Alex Bregman: .323/.412/.535, 9 HR, 36 BB, 22 SO
Langford did hit for more power than Crews, although Crews' plate discipline puts him on another level. Berry had a low strikeout rate (8.8%) for LSU, lower than that of Crews (13.4%) or Langford (14.4%), but it also came with a more aggressive approach that perhaps explains some of his struggles in pro ball. Bleday's college strikeout rate (16.7%) was only marginally higher than Crews' or Langford's, but he has had big issues making contact. Again, the scouting reports on both Crews and Langford suggest excellent hit and power tools, so Langford should also advance in quick measure and perhaps reach the majors next season.
Minnesota Twins
First-round pick: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (North Carolina)
First to majors: Tanner Hall, RHP, Southern Miss (fourth round)
Jenkins is, in McDaniel's words, "a potential star," so he should move faster than the average high school first-round outfielder. If he doesn't, Hall is an old-school type of Twins selection: underwhelming fastball velocity but good command with a plus changeup. The Twins have seen some guys like this reach the majors in short order, such as Louie Varland, a 15th-round pick in 2019 who reached the majors last season.
Oakland Athletics
First-round pick: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
First to majors: Wilson
Wilson struck out just 12 times in 492 plate appearances the past two seasons at Grand Canyon, the kind of contact ability that should allow him to handle major league pitching even if he's rushed to the majors -- and even if scouts aren't exactly sure what kind of power he'll develop. Wilson's dad, former All-Star Jack Wilson, compared him to DJ LeMahieu with his all-fields approach. Wilson has room to fill out and get stronger, but it's the hit tool that will get him to Oakland (or Las Vegas).
Cincinnati Reds
First-round pick: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
First to majors: Lowder
Lowder joined former Virginia standout Danny Hultzen in repeating as ACC Pitcher of the Year after going 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 120 1/3 innings. He possesses three plus pitches and, most importantly, the control to reach the majors quickly -- right behind Skenes, according to McDaniel. Given the struggles of the Reds' rotation this season, it can't come soon enough (no, it won't be this year).
Kansas City Royals
First-round pick: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) HS
First to majors: Hunter Owen, LHP, Vanderbilt (fourth round)
The Royals made Mitchell the first high school catcher drafted in the top 10 since the Marlins selected Kyle Skipworth sixth in 2008. Skipworth never reached the majors -- symbolic of the risk in selecting high school catchers. The A's did just call up Tyler Soderstrom, a high school catcher drafted 26th overall in 2020, and Mitchell is a better defensive prospect than Soderstrom, who has split time between catcher and first base in the minors. Owen was one of the top college lefties in the draft but fell after missing time with a tired arm (he also missed time last season). A fastball that touches 97 mph means he could move quickly as a reliever, although the Royals will no doubt look to develop him as a starter.
Colorado Rockies
First-round pick: Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
First to majors: Sean Sullivan, LHP, Wake Forest (second round)
The Rockies didn't draft a high school player until the 18th round, so you know they're looking for some quick returns to help the floundering big league club. Dollander was the top college arm heading into 2023, but he didn't dominate like he did as a sophomore, allowing 83 hits and 30 walks in 89 innings. His premium stuff still kept him in the top 10 overall, but based on reports that he might need some mechanical tweaks, I wonder if the more polished Sullivan reaches Denver first.
Miami Marlins
First-round pick: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (Oregon)
First to majors: Justin Storm, LHP, Southern Miss (seventh round)
The Marlins used their first two selections on high school pitchers -- the top two prep pitchers in McDaniel's rankings -- but given how conservative teams are in developing high school pitchers, let's throw a dart on Storm, a 6-foot-7 reliever with a fastball/slider repertoire and dominant numbers at Southern Miss (45 2/3 IP, 26 H, 17 BB, 72 SO). Seventh-rounders don't reach the majors too often, but Storm has a crossfire delivery that creates deception and helps his fastball play above its low-90s radar readings.
Los Angeles Angels
First-round pick: Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic
First to majors: Schanuel
Schanuel's stats at FAU were just ridiculous: .447/.615/.868, 19 HR, 71 BB, 14 K's. Oh, he was also hit 18 times, boosting that OBP over .600. Yes, he did it in a smaller conference and he also starts with a unique hand position, held up above his head a la Craig Counsell back in the day, but that walk-to-strikeout ratio suggests a mature approach. The Angels hope to replicate the path of Zach Neto, last year's first-round pick (also from a smaller school) who is already in the majors.
Arizona Diamondbacks
First-round pick: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
First to majors: Troy
Like the Rockies, the Diamondbacks went all-in on college players, with Troy the favorite to reach the majors first, although probably as a third baseman rather than a shortstop. There was a report recently pointing out the poor results from highly drafted Pac-12 players in recent years. I assume it meant Spencer Torkelson (the first overall pick in 2020) and Andrew Vaughn (third pick in 2019), who haven't been the big stars they were projected to be, and maybe former 10th overall pick Hunter Bishop. But I see plenty of success stories like Adley Rutschman, Nico Hoerner and Matt McLain, plus lower-round picks like Steven Kwan and Spencer Steer. We just saw the mixed results from top SEC hitters above, so I wouldn't jump to any conclusions in either direction.
Chicago Cubs
First-round pick: Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland
First to majors: Shaw
The Cubs' second-round pick was Arkansas pitcher Jaxon Wiggins, who missed the entire season with Tommy John surgery, so Shaw is the obvious pick here as an advanced college hitter with power (24 home runs), high exit velocity readings, strike-zone control (43 walks, 42 strikeouts) and good makeup. He was the Cape Cod League MVP in 2022 and has defensive versatility, which could speed his path to the majors, with most scouts eyeing his ultimate position as second base.
Boston Red Sox
First-round pick: Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
First to majors: Teel
Teel is viewed as a safe pick with a high floor as a sure major leaguer thanks to his solid defense. He was inconsistent at the plate for UVA, hitting just .276 as a sophomore and struggling during the summer, but he rebounded to hit .407 with 13 home runs as a junior.
The recent results for first-round college catchers have been a little mixed. Rutschman and Henry Davis were first overall picks, and while Rutschman is already an All-Star and Davis just reached the majors with the Pirates, Davis has made all his starts in right field or DH. Joey Bart hasn't hit, Shea Langeliers is struggling with the A's and Zack Collins is in Triple-A. Will Smith is a stud and Kyle Schwarber is an outfielder. Teel's left-handed swing should work well at Fenway and I think he'll follow the path of Davis, drafted in 2021, and be up in two years (just as a catcher, not an outfielder).
Chicago White Sox
First-round pick: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi
First to majors: Seth Keener, RHP, Wake Forest (third round)
Gonzalez is a lefty-hitting shortstop who some feel slid further in the draft than expected. While he controlled the strike zone (35 walks, 28 strikeouts), he never really improved in his three years at Ole Miss: 1.005 OPS as a freshman, .963 as a sophomore, .999 as a junior. That concerns me a bit, as does his 30-to-40-grade speed -- there aren't many runners like that who stick at shortstop. If he's not a shortstop, that puts more pressure on the bat. Keener is a slider-heavy pitcher who put up great results as a starter and reliever for Wake Forest and could move in a hurry as a reliever. He does have the stuff to start, though, so it will be interesting to see how the White Sox develop him.
San Francisco Giants
First-round pick: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (Virginia)
First to majors: Eldridge
Eldridge is a legit two-way prospect with light-tower power from his 6-foot-7 frame (he hits left-handed) and a mid-90s fastball. The Giants announced him as a two-way player, and he reportedly wants to give it a go. The Giants took another prep player with their second pick and then a bunch of college players, including SEC shortstops Cole Foster (Auburn) in the third round and Maui Ahuna (Tennessee) in the fourth. One of them could get there first, although Ahuna had big-time strikeout issues (77 in 53 games). If Eldridge develops a feel to hit to go along with his power, he should be a fast riser, assuming the two-way path doesn't slow him down.
Baltimore Orioles
First-round pick: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
First to majors: Bradfield
The Orioles are another team with a college-dominated draft, although they did take a couple of high schoolers in the late rounds. Bradfield is the fifth Vanderbilt position player to go in the first round since 2017 and the fourth outfielder. We mentioned the struggles of Bleday and Martin as pros. Spencer Jones, taken 25th last year by the Yankees, has fared better, but he's only in High-A. Bradfield's speed and defense could lead to an accelerated path to the majors, even if it's only as a fourth outfielder.
Milwaukee Brewers
First-round pick: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
First to majors: Wilken
Wilken set a Wake Forest record and finished second in Division I with 31 home runs while hitting .345 -- the first time he hit over .300 in his college career, as he cut his strikeout rate from 24% to 18% and finished with more walks than whiffs. Despite the improvements, there are concerns about his hit tool, so there is some boom-or-bust potential here. Sleeper choice: Indiana reliever Craig Yoho, an eighth-round pick with a wipeout sweeping slider.
Tampa Bay Rays
First-round pick: Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
First to majors: Taylor
Tampa's competitive balance pick, 31st overall, was 17-year-old high school shortstop Adrian Santana, so let's default to Taylor, who hit .308/.430/.631 with 23 home runs for the Horned Frogs, although he struck out more times (60) than he walked (54), a personal red flag for me for an elite college hitter. That was a change from his first two seasons, although it came with additional power from his thin 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame as he set the TCU single-season home run record. Like all Rays prospects, Taylor -- who McDaniel says reminds him of Brandon Lowe -- has defensive versatility as he played some second and short for TCU as well.
Toronto Blue Jays
First-round pick: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (Florida)
First to majors: Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State (third round)
Nimmala has huge upside but comes with swing-and-miss risk. The Jays didn't have a second-round pick and their fourth-rounder was a high school pitcher, so Watts-Brown gets the nod, although he would also be classified as high risk due to command issues: He walked 48 in 82 1/3 innings at OSU (after transferring from Long Beach State). He's a good athlete, however, starring in football and basketball in high school, and he did lead the Big 12 in strikeouts, so he could move in a hurry if the fastball command improves.
St. Louis Cardinals
First-round pick: Chase Davis, OF, Arizona
First to majors: Davis
Davis presents a bit of a change for the Cardinals. The past five times they drafted a position player in the first round it was a high school selection: Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Delvin Perez, Dylan Carlson and Nick Plummer, going back to 2015. Davis had a breakout season for Arizona, hitting .362 and erasing some concerns about his hit tool, and the Cardinals have certainly had some success recently with college bats taken after the first round (Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Alec Burleson).
Seattle Mariners
First-round pick: Colt Emerson, SS, John Glenn HS (Ohio)
First to majors: Brody Hopkins, RHP, Winthrop (sixth round)
With three of the first 30 selections thanks to a bonus pick for Julio Rodriguez winning Rookie of the Year and the first selection of the competitive balance round, this was a hugely important draft for the Mariners. In the words of Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners swung big and went for "aircraft carrier-type talents" with three high school position players. Third-round pick Teddy McGraw from Wake Forest had first-round stuff before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Hopkins is a super-athletic pitcher who was a two-way player at College of Charleston and Winthrop but could move quickly as a reliever with a fastball/slider combo, the kind of pitcher the Mariners have had success developing.
Cleveland Guardians
First-round pick: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach HS (California)
First to majors: Andrew Walters, RHP, Miami (Fla.) (second round)
With a blistering fastball that touches 100 mph, Walters is a pure reliever who struck out 134 batters with just 13 walks the past two seasons for the Hurricanes. He could be one of the first players from the entire class to reach the majors, although he'll probably have to throw his slider more than he did in college -- which wasn't often.
Atlanta Braves
First-round pick: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
First to majors: Waldrep
As McDaniel noted, Waldrep fits the Atlanta profile of leaning toward starting pitchers, especially those with a clear plus pitch. In Waldrep's case, it's a plus-plus splitter (or split change), but his fastball, slider and curve are all potential plus offerings as well. Given how quickly Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder (both drafted in 2020) reached the majors -- and made the All-Star team in 2023 -- Waldrep could arrive in a hurry, although there is reliever risk here due to his delivery and control.
San Diego Padres
First-round pick: Dillon Head, OF, Homewood Flossmoor HS (Illinois)
First to majors: Head
The Padres leaned heavily on prep talent and didn't have a second- or fifth-round pick, so they might not see dividends from this draft for several years. Head is an 80-grade runner with a good hit tool and power that is yet to be determined. The Padres have fared well with recent high school selections like James Wood (now with the Nationals) and Jackson Merrill, two of the current top prospects in the game, so we'll see if they did it again with Head.
New York Yankees
First-round pick: George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Florida)
First to majors: Roc Riggio, 2B, Oklahoma State (fourth round)
The Yankees' top picks were Lombard and a junior college lefty in the third round, so let's go with Riggio, a draft-eligible sophomore who hit .335/.461/.679 with 18 home runs for OSU. Undersized at 5-foot-9, his speed and arm limit him to second base, but his swagger and hustle draw comparisons to Dustin Pedroia, another undersized infielder with a good stick.
Philadelphia Phillies
First-round pick: Aidan Miller, SS, Mitchell HS (Florida)
First to majors: George Klassen, RHP, Minnesota (sixth round)
The Phillies, who were down a couple of picks, selected high schoolers with their first three picks, leaving Klassen as their first college player. He had Tommy John surgery as a freshman in 2021 but returned throwing 100 mph, making him one of the hardest throwers in the class. Of course, he fell to the sixth round for a reason: He's a reliever and he's wild, walking 47 in 56 2/3 innings. His fastball also gets hit more than you would think given the velocity. So he's a huge wild card, somebody who could flame out in High- or Single-A or put it together and reach the majors in 2025.
Houston Astros
First-round pick: Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska
First to majors: Alonzo Tredwell, RHP, UCLA (second round)
Matthews is a power-speed combo with some swing-and-miss and the associated risk that comes with that. Tredwell was a top high school talent before undergoing Tommy John surgery and also missed time this spring with a back issue, but he's a towering presence at 6-foot-8 and has good control (12 walks in 45 1/3 innings). He doesn't have the stuff of Hunter Brown but could move in a similar path as Brown, who was drafted in 2019 and reached the majors last September (while missing a year due to COVID).
New York Mets
First pick: Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS (Georgia) (32nd overall)
First to majors: Austin Troesser, RHP, Missouri (fourth round)
The Mets had some extra picks in the third and fourth rounds and went with college pitchers with eight of their next nine selections after Houck. Troesser gets the nod only because he's a reliever with a typical fastball/slider combo, and relievers can climb through the system in quick order.
Los Angeles Dodgers
First pick: Kendall George, OF, Atascocita HS (TX) (36th overall)
First to majors: Jake Gelof, 3B, Virginia (second round)
George is a pure speedster with little power who will need time to see if the bat develops. The younger brother of Zack Gelof, who just reached the majors with the A's, Jake fits a similar profile to recent Dodgers draft picks like Michael Busch, Kody Hoese and Dalton Rushing as college players with power potential and good statistical profiles. He hit .321/.427/.710 with 23 home runs for UVA, with a near-even walk-to-strikeout rate (48 to 50), although he was even better as a sophomore in 2022, when he hit .377. Zack was also a second-round pick from Virginia and reached the majors just two years after getting drafted, so the Dodgers will hope for a similar quick road for Jake.