The 2023 MLB draft starts Sunday, so let's project how all 70 Day 1 picks could play out this weekend in Seattle with my Mock Draft 3.0.
The intrigue starts right at the top this year, as the Pittsburgh Pirates have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 overall pick in a draft featuring three of the top prospects in recent memory. What will the Pirates do -- and how will the Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
This is my next-to-last mock draft of the 2023 draft cycle, with an updated 3.1 version coming hours before Round 1 begins on Sunday. And remember, this is the order in which I think the picks will come off the board, while my rankings (linked below) are the order in which I'd pick the players.
Draft coverage: Mock Draft 2.0 | Top 300 | Guide for all 30 teams
Watch MLB draft: Sunday, July 9 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
The indication has been made to the teams at the top of the draft that LSU CF Dylan Crews wants more than the top slot in the draft, which is $9.721 million. Whether this number has been said out loud or implied, or this is merely shorthand for "over slot," multiple teams picking at the top have said to me this week that Crews wants $10 million. I alluded to this in the previous mock draft being a logical move for Crews.
The previous highest bonus in this era of draft bonus rules is $8.42 million by Spencer Torkelson in 2020, but in the first year under a new CBA with higher slots, two picks have suggested slots higher than that, while the third pick's slot is just below it, at $8.341 million. Multiple bonus records are likely to be set this year, and Crews seems to be focused on being at the top of that heap.
Now this could be misunderstood, or an earnest demand, or a negotiating ploy. I dove into the leverage involved in this process in the last mock draft, but the short version is that I think one player in this draft will have a bonus that starts with a nine, and I think Crews' camp wants to make sure it's him, at whatever pick that number can be provided.
Now, imagine you're the Pirates' general manager in a draft where:
1. It's a three-way toss-up for the best player.
2. One player is making a precedent-smashing demand that may or may not be real, but probably is real.
3. If you take the player with the high demand, you will stress over that deal until a minute before the signing deadline.
4. Taking that player will likely keep your other most notable pick in your draft haul in limbo financially, contingent on the numbers adding up by signing your top pick.
5. If you don't sign the player, you get the second pick in next year's draft which looks to be much worse than this year's best-in-a-decade-or-two bonanza.
6. The next two players will work with you and, at the right price, are willing to agree to a number before being picked, signing a deal soon after the draft.
What would you do?
Skenes, Wyatt Langford and Max Clark are the three real options at the top pick. Clark has worked out for the Pirates privately, and (news alert) Langford visited Pittsburgh earlier this week (but did not work out), now that his college season is over. I think the question here is, for roughly comparable prices, do the Pirates want to pick Langford or Skenes -- and if they want to save a bit more money, do they take the high school player in Clark?
The Pirates may not know the answer to this question yet, and I'm pretty certain they haven't talked numbers with the reps for any candidate, but I'm confident this is the state of play right now.
To account for saving some on this pick and having a big 5% bonus pool overage, I have local-ish product Kevin McGonigle (21st in my final rankings) going to the Pirates with their next pick, 42nd overall. You'll see a lot of prep players who get past pick No. 20 or so finding their way to a club's second pick for more money, but neither the teams nor the agents involved have a good idea how that will play out yet.
2. Washington Nationals
Dylan Crews, CF, LSU
Taking famous collegiate draft prospects for enormous bonuses is the formula the Nats used to land Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, which eventually led to a World Series title. Is Crews putting out a huge signability ask because he has a landing spot worked out or because he's confident he'll get what he wants? I've heard for months the Nats' draft board has Crews and Skenes at the top, and literally no other players are being taken seriously at this pick, despite some buzz they're considering Langford. I think an LSU player is extremely likely to be the Nats' first pick.
3. Detroit Tigers
Wyatt Langford, LF, Florida
Detroit would appear to have the easiest pick in the draft, as I think they'll just pick whichever of the three top college players gets to this pick. I haven't heard Walker Jenkins or Max Clark here much, but I have heard Kyle Teel and Jacob Gonzalez persistently here as backup options, so I think the focus is college hitters or Skenes. Since the Tigers have a comp pick, a second-rounder and a big overage, I have them scooping up a falling Blake Mitchell (29th in my final rankings) and then taking 22-year-old Brandon Sproat with some savings to balance it out.
4. Texas Rangers
Max Clark, CF, Franklin Community (Ind.) HS
The buzz here has been Jenkins or Clark for months, and it's starting to feel like Clark has a slight edge. I think the Rangers take any of the three college players should they get here, so I don't think any of those three make it out of the top four picks under any circumstance. Enrique Bradfield Jr. is still alive here as a super sleeper here in an emergency situation where the Rangers need bonus certainty and no one will give it to them.
5. Minnesota Twins
Walker Jenkins, RF, South Brunswick (N.C.) HS
I know they love Noble Meyer, and I think if they go under slot here, floating him to their next pick will be something they try and possibly succeed at doing. There's interest in Jacob Gonzalez and Kyle Teel as leading options if they decide signing Jenkins or Clark isn't the right move. There's also a mess of high school players, maybe enough to make it to the Twins' next two picks, who are later-first-round talents whom Minnesota could pick later if they go under slot here. Everything seems to be on the table, but I'm still thinking right now that they won't pass on one of the top five talents when faced with that decision.
6. Oakland Athletics
Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss
I'm hearing mostly slot-or-below college position players. I think both Clark and Jenkins would be over slot if they got here and I don't have a good feeling that Oakland wants to do that if given the chance. I think the A's will consider Rhett Lowder but end up going hitter, with Gonzalez, Brayden Taylor and Kyle Teel the slot-adjacent options and Jacob Wilson the money-saving option.
7. Cincinnati Reds
Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
One surprise I didn't quite have the confidence to project here is that if Walker Jenkins goes fourth, there's a real scenario where Minnesota and Oakland pass on Max Clark, and he lands here for an over-slot bonus. Other than that scenario, I think Cincinnati is looking to college players to get some certainty to allow them to be bolder down the board but also to potentially help a surging big league club. Another prep talent floating to a team's second pick in this scenario is Aidan Miller to the Reds' next pick. He fits them perfectly, as they signed his younger brother Jackson in 2020, and Cincy over-indexes for power-first corner mashers from the prep ranks and players from Florida.
8. Kansas City Royals
Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
The Royals have kicked the tires on a lot of high school players. Blake Mitchell, Arjun Nimmala and Noble Meyer are all in play here and at pick Nos. 7 and 9. I think all three teams will land on a college player, though. Teel is in play from pick No. 5 to No. 10 as a lot of the college players in this range are. Brayden Taylor and Enrique Bradfield are other leading options, but I've also heard KC wants to cut a deal, and I'm not sure any of the college players do that here. Teel feels most likely, but this one is still a shrug emoji at this point.
9. Colorado Rockies
Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, Vanderbilt
I think Lowder being Colorado's pick if he's here is one of the locks of the draft, but he isn't here in this scenario. If the Rockies do get the Wake Forest ace here, Colorado would take hitters at the next two or three selections. Being faced with either taking non-sinker pitchers (Hurston Waldrep, Noble Meyer, Chase Dollander) or a position player with Lowder off the board, I think Colorado prefers Bradfield.
10. Miami Marlins
Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
I think the Fish are looking at the college bats at this pick. With Teel, Bradfield and Gonzalez gone from that group in this scenario, they would be passing on Matt Shaw and Jacob Wilson to take Taylor. Miami has been looking at a wide range of players, but I think this high-floor college-bat group is where they will land.
11. Los Angeles Angels
Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic
The Angels' approach for the last two drafts has been obvious in retrospect: Take college players and get them to the big leagues ASAP. This year, Rhett Lowder, Brayden Taylor, Jacob Gonzalez, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Schanuel fit that vibe at this pick, and only one is still on the board. Schanuel's hot zone is eight to ten picks later, so there's probably some savings here. He's been rumored all spring to be the type you could send to Double-A this summer which the Angels do with less qualified players, so this seems like a great marriage in this scenario. Colin Houck is the one prep player I keep hearing here.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks
Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
This pick and the two that follow are the toughest for me to pin down. Arizona is confusing even to agents they've spoken with, exploring every player demographic for this pick. Waldrep fits the kind of characteristics they tend to look for in pitchers, but the D-backs have also been on Nimmala and Colin Houck while looking at nearly every player in this range.
13. Chicago Cubs
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest (Fla.) HS
Nimmala has interest from multiple teams picking in the top 10 and more spots in this area, but rumors persist that he has some chance to last long enough to get floated to a team's second pick with a mid-first round type bonus. I just can't quite see that happening due to the rare combination of upside that a number of teams are specifically looking for in prospects. Aidan Miller is another hot name at this pick, which is probably his high-water mark, but it's been hard to narrow the Cubs' targets (and those of the Red Sox picking behind them) down to a smaller player mix.
14. Boston Red Sox
Matt Shaw, 2B, Maryland
I'll keep Shaw here as the Red Sox are mostly tied to safer position-player types at this pick with bolder choices coming down the board. One of the wildest rumors I've heard all spring is that Arizona State 2B Luke Keaschall could be a Nick Yorke-esque pick here. I buy that Boston likes him, is worried he won't get to their next pick, and is thinking about it, but it's just a little too farfetched to project right now. I've given Keaschall to them in the second round.
15. Chicago White Sox
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
The White Sox are checking out the prep bats here, but I think this pick will come down to Yohandy Morales or Dollander. Morales closed well and could hit 30 homers as a third baseman, while Dollander had a real shot to go in the top three picks when the spring started. He wasn't bad this spring, he just performed below the lofty expectations.
16. San Francisco Giants
Walker Martin, SS, Eaton (Colo.) HS
Martin has been a hot name here for weeks, and being taken here is probably his high-water mark while also being different from what the Giants normally do. I've been hearing mostly college bats here otherwise and would expect San Francisco to go in that direction if Martin isn't the pick, with local boy Tommy Troy a leading option.
17. Baltimore Orioles
George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep (Fla.) HS
I'm hearing prep position players and Waldrep here. Lombard is in the mix and may have moved ahead of the more commonly named prospects like Houck and Miller. I will be inconsolable if Kemp Alderman is on the board at 53rd overall and the Orioles pass, but I don't have him making it there in this scenario.
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
MiIwaukee seems to be waiting to scoop up whoever is falling near the end of this second cut of college players, with a bias toward hit-first position players. Bradfield, Shaw and Taylor all fit, and I wouldn't rule out pitchers Waldrep or Dollander, either.
19. Tampa Bay Rays
Colin Houck, 3B, Parkview (Ga.) HS
The prep players that have long been projected to go from 10-15 seem to be subtly sliding into this area with a handful likely getting pushed to clubs' second picks for overpays as college prospects move up. I think the Rays are willing to jump in and take Houck, Miller, Lombard or Nimmala, possibly others, with one of the last landing spots those players have before jumping down another ten spots or so to better paydays early in Round 2. For this mock, I have the Rays taking a big swing with Thomas White in the comp round then selecting 22-year-old Florida shortstop Josh Rivera to balance it out financially.
20. Toronto Blue Jays
Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
I'm hearing mostly college bats here, and that makes sense as that's what the board is delivering. Morales is unique within this player demographic because he offers 30-homer upside with real feel for contact and defensive value.
21. St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford
I think this will be the stopping point for the last of the college bats on this tier, which happens to be Troy in this scenario. Schanuel, Wilson, Shaw all could fit, as could Waldrep as a pitcher.
22. Seattle Mariners
Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
I've been mentioning for what seems like months that I don't know where Meyer will actually go. Nearly all 30 teams really love him despite his fastball shape, making teams pause at high picks. Seattle is local, has excelled with fastball shape adjustments and has a big pool with two comp picks to make this whole thing work monetarily.
I'll guess the price here would be about $1.5 million over slot, but the Mariners have a roughly $650,000 overage, so they could make this work with two or three six-figure discounts later, or maybe just by jumping into the senior sign end of the pool first. This would be a great start to the draft for the M's. I think they'll take at least one prep position player at these three top picks, but would probably add some college players on more affordable deals in this scenario.
23. Cleveland Guardians
Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn (Ohio) HS
It sounds like Cleveland is focused on value at this pick, ready to pounce on whoever is falling. Nobody egregious falls into their lap in this version, but Emerson is both local and has long been tied to the Guardians while also fitting a type of player they've taken early before.
24. Atlanta Braves
Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU
I don't think the Braves are looking at over-slot options here, and they are mostly on position players. As mentioned in my updated rankings, there's a faint whiff of Spencer Strider to the Georgia native Floyd's operation on the heels of his College World Series heroics, so the savings here (Floyd was eligible last year and this is about as high as he projects to go, floor around pick 40-50) would give the Braves flexibility down the board to take multiple over-slot swings.
25. San Diego Padres
Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison (Va.) HS
I've heard the Padres tied to almost every high school player on the board, and some of the top options don't get here, but Eldridge, Dillion Head and Trent Caraway do in this version, so there's still plenty to choose from.
26. New York Yankees
Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas (N.Y.) HS
I'll stick with this projection, but I've finally started hearing some other names here. Thomas White is an intriguing fit for the Yankees' preferences, and I think they could afford him with this slot plus their full 5% overage and maybe some slight cuts at their later picks. It wouldn't be a one-man draft, but it may be getting too close to it for New York's liking.
27. Philadelphia Phillies
Chase Davis, RF, Arizona
Philly is not afraid to take a prep righty, and Charlee Soto could be an option here, but I'm hearing them more about the power-first college bats of late. Davis is a better athlete than Wilken, so he gets the nod. I would expect a prep arm at one of Philadelphia's next few picks.
28. Houston Astros
Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
They've been tied to Stafura and Martin as they seem to be looking in the upside position-player bucket, but I'm not sure their top options get here. I think this would also set them up to take bolder upside swings at later picks.
Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks
29. Seattle Mariners: Jonny Farmelo, CF, VA HS
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Seattle Mariners: Joe Whitman, LHP, Kent State
31. Tampa Bay Rays: Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (Mass.) HS
32. New York Mets: Trent Caraway, SS, JSerra Catholic (Calif.) HS
I think the Mets stay away from prep pitchers here with their first pick, despite some solid options being available. I think the dream of Yohandy Morales is dead, but some interesting position players will be here, and Caraway should go in the next few picks if he doesn't go here. Ty Floyd is also an option here.
33. Milwaukee Brewers: Dillon Head, CF, Homewood Flossmoor (Ill.) HS
34. Minnesota Twins: Steven Echavarria, RHP, Millburn (N.J.) HS
35. Miami Marlins: Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian (Ga.) HS
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska
I've long thought Jonny Farmelo (didn't make it here) and Alex Clemmey (extremely risky, also might be able to get him with their next pick if Seattle passes) fit the Dodgers well. Matthews strikes a nice balance of the things the Dodgers like as a plus athlete with positional versatility who could have more power teased out as he develops.
37. Detroit Tigers: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) HS
38. Cincinnati Reds: Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell (Fla.) HS
39. Oakland Athletics: Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian (Fla.) HS
Second Round
40. Washington Nationals: Jack Hurley, CF, Virginia Tech
41. Oakland Athletics: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
42. Pittsburgh Pirates: Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner (Pa.) HS
43. Cincinnati Reds: Jake Gelof, 3B, Virginia
44. Kansas City Royals: Adrian Santana, SS, Doral Academy (Fla.) HS
45. Detroit Tigers: Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida
46. Colorado Rockies: Kemp Alderman, RF, Ole Miss
47. Miami Marlins: Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State
48. Arizona Diamondbacks: Drew Burress, CF, Houston County (Ga.) HS
49. Minnesota Twins: Mac Horvath, 3B, North Carolina
50. Boston Red Sox: Luke Keaschall, 2B, Arizona State
51. Chicago White Sox: Blake Wolters, RHP, Mahomet Seymour (Ill.) HS
52. San Francisco Giants: Colton Ledbetter, RF, Mississippi State
53. Baltimore Orioles: Josh Knoth, RHP, Patchogue-Medford (N.Y.) HS
54. Milwaukee Brewers: Cole Carrigg, C, San Diego State
55. Tampa Bay Rays: Josh Rivera, SS, Florida
56. New York Mets: Jace Bohrofen, RF, Arkansas
57. Seattle Mariners: Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell
58. Cleveland Guardians: Mitch Jebb, SS, Michigan State
59. Atlanta Braves: Kyle Karros, 3B, UCLA
60. Los Angeles Dodgers: Alex Clemmey, LHP, Bishop Hendricken (R.I.) HS
61. Houston Astros: Cameron Johnson, LHP, IMG Academy (Fla.) HS
Competitive Balance Round B
62. Cleveland Guardians: Kendall George, CF, Atascocita (Texas) HS
63. Baltimore Orioles: Caden Sorrell, CF, Marcus (Texas) HS
64. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kiefer Lord, RHP, Washington
65. Colorado Rockies: LuJames Groover, 3B, N.C. State
66. Kansas City Royals: Caden Grice, LHP/RF, Clemson
67. Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Carico, C, Davidson
Compensation Picks
68. Chicago Cubs: Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Florida State
69. San Francisco Giants: Drue Hackenberg, RHP, Virginia Tech
70. Atlanta Braves: Carson Roccaforte, CF, Louisiana Lafayette