We're now about three weeks from the 2021 MLB draft, which begins on Sunday, July 11, and while there's more buzz about specific team preferences, sources say information on this front will be much clearer at the end of the month with the College World Series and first draft combine along with a number of private workouts starting in the coming days.
It's still a little early to have a team's mix down to a few certain players. That isn't reality for most teams yet, and there haven't been many substantive calls with advisers yet, particularly at the top picks. In projecting picks for a mock, the buzz from the day or two before the draft is at least 50 percent nonsense, smokescreens and backup plans. What I'll get in the next two weeks, in combination with which teams have scouted players the most, the general profile of players they tend to take, and if I tend to handicap their picks, can all be combined for the best outcome in a projection.
All that said, it makes sense to check in on this front one more time as these final big events are about to kick off, then circle back with more at the end of the month. These are where I think players will be selected, not the order in which I'd take them.
More: Draft order | Top 150 prospects | Full draft coverage
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (California), USC commit
Another interesting component of this year's and last year's draft is the power of the media in shaping opinions about players. Teams have less data from 2020 and in 2021 than in any other recent draft, so the power of having a sense of what the other 29 teams think is more useful than normal. In addition, teams are leaning more on draft models than ever. All of them factor in public rankings, with some teams believing that it's an important variable as a proxy for factors that are underrated by rival teams, like valuing history over the most recent look.
Why do I bring this up? It's obvious this year that there's no clear top prospect, and with a hard-capped draft, the price for signing each prospect matters because it impacts who you can take at your next pick. If it becomes accepted in every notable mock that prep SS Jordan Lawlar will go first, at least indirectly, the perception -- if not his actual price -- will continue to get closer to full slot if he's drafted first. In a year with a half-dozen prospects who could be argued to be best, by default once a player has the momentum of being projected first a number of times in a row, then the "price" needed to sign him goes up, then other players become better values as theirs "drops" in comparison, to drastically simplify things.
This is especially notable at this juncture in the process. Most if not all of the teams picking in the top five explicitly have not made any clear decisions on their final mix, and at least one team has specifically instructed its scouts not to chat among themselves about their preferences, so it's easier to keep an open mind. So while essentially nothing is happening in terms of known team preference, contact with advisers, etc. to actually shift a projection, I think you're seeing movement away from Lawlar as the first pick because he's perceived to have a higher signing price than Mayer (while essentially a coinflip on talent) because the narrative is Lawlar was narrowly better and/or narrowly more likely to go first.
I think Mayer would command a little less than Lawlar if the draft were today and I think that's what Pittsburgh's pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign. Today, I think that will be Mayer and thus I project him as such. If Mayer is projected to go first in every mock for the rest of the month and Lawlar is outside of the top three picks, which would be mirroring some understanding of what teams might actually do, it's totally possible that Lawlar becomes cheaper to sign than Mayer (again, drastically simplifying) and thus after a few weeks of this Mayer-going-first narrative, Lawlar (or Henry Davis or even Jack Leiter) could then be on top at the end of the process, to say nothing of who will actually be drafted first overall.
I've had phone calls the past few weeks about teams sending top evaluators to scout players or inviting players to private workouts because a mock draft or new ranking caused a player to move up enough in a team's model that they essentially went to scout him again because of what they read. To me, that's ridiculous, but it's happening, and it might well end up impacting how the top half dozen picks play out.
2. Texas Rangers
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
In this scenario, I think Texas' main options are the top college players (Davis and Jack Leiter) and local prep SS Jordan Lawlar. I think, all things being equal, there's a preference for college here, but we don't yet know if all things are equal.
3. Detroit Tigers
Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Georgia), Tennessee commit
Detroit has long been tied to Mayer. This is seen as Mayer's floor, which will impact the price he eventually quotes to Pittsburgh. There was a roughly $1.7 million gap in the slot values for the first and third picks in last year's draft, and it should be similar this year. Who is next on Detroit's board is still an open question, and it appears Detroit is also still working that out.
RHP Jack Leiter fits their pitcher preferences to a T (SEC performance, power stuff), while they are also tied to RHP Jackson Jobe (even higher upside, but the risk of a high school pitcher), House (for me, the highest upside in the draft, with some striking Bobby Witt Jr. parallels), and Lawlar. Al Avila has been in to see the Vanderbilt arms this season and was in Lakeland this week for a two-day private workout with House. I think it's down to House and Leiter in this scenario. House might be a bit cheaper since this is his first real landing spot, and Detroit tends to lean to position players with its first pick.
4. Boston Red Sox
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
This seems unlikely on its face, but two teams leaning to position players in a tight decision before Boston's turn is actually the most likely outcome at each pick. The Red Sox have been tough to pin down at this pick, being rumored with every top player, which is basically the same as being linked to none of them.
More: The secrets behind Vandy's 1-2 pitching punch
5. Baltimore Orioles
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (North Carolina), NC State commit
With GM Mike Elias' history of undercutting Carlos Correa in 2012 and Heston Kjerstad in 2020, it was inevitable that the paint-by-numbers projection here was going to include an underslot position player. The actual links this spring have been almost exactly that, with all four of the top prep shortstops, prep catcher Harry Ford and Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser. Of those available here, Watson seems most like Elias' type, so I'll lean that way until more intel comes in.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit HS (Texas), Vanderbilt commit
Like Leiter, this one seems unlikely given the narrative from the past 12 months of Lawlar being the top player, but I delved into that in detail above. Watson fits Arizona, and there's a real shot that the D-backs take Jobe here if their preferred bat doesn't make it. I'm not sure if Lawlar is that preferred bat or not. Of the four prep shortstops, Mayer and Watson are the best hitters, and House has the most upside, so it's not impossible that, if the draft were today, the prospect that fits in the middle on both fronts who might also have the highest bonus expectations could be the one to slide.
Since Lawlar is old (18) for his prep class, he would be sophomore eligible if he went to Vanderbilt and, like Rocker, there has to be an amount of money where if he's offered less than that, he just heads to Nashville; we just don't know what that number is right now. Being older for the class gives Lawlar more leverage since he'll be eligible more quickly than most SEC prospects, but it also hurts him empirically in draft models since age for prep hitters is a huge predictive factor. At some point, waiting a few years and taking on big risks to go just a few picks higher doesn't make much sense.
7. Kansas City Royals
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
One of the few things that people around the industry seem to agree on is that Kansas City is likely to take Rocker if he gets here, and right now, he's seen as likely to get here. The Royals were on Rocker back to his high school days, and he fits their recent preference for major conference college arms. They're on House as well, and I'd imagine they would take a long look at Lawlar or Watson if either got this far.
8. Colorado Rockies
Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land HS (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit
The Rockies have been on Montgomery a lot and also are on House (not sure whom they prefer) and would likely consider one of the shortstops if they got down here. Jobe makes sense on talent, but Colorado prefers sinkerballers and a right-handed high school pitcher up top seems like a tough sell after 2016 No. 4 overall pick Riley Pint's recent retirement.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma), Ole Miss commit
This is where the surprising rumors begin and the talent consensus starts to separate. The Angels had their top three evaluators at Connecticut prep LHP Frank Mozzicato's last start and have long been tied to Georgia prep SS/RHP Bubba Chandler as well, along with doing their due diligence on Rocker. I don't think either prep prospect will be the pick here, but new GM Perry Minasian is casting a wide net.
I have Jobe here because probably has slid too far at this juncture on talent, and the Angels (like most teams) could use as much dynamic talent as possible. If Jobe, Rocker and the four shortstops are all off the board, I would expect one of the college position players to be the pick (Cowser, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain).
10. New York Mets
Matt McLain, 2B, UCLA
The Mets are also casting a wide net since it's unclear who is really the best prospect at this juncture and teams are doing deep dives later than usual due to the lack of information. In this scenario, the Mets get their pick of the three college bats in this range (passing on center fielders Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser). They're considering Texas RHP Ty Madden, and the hot rumor is they have been piling in recently to see rising Indiana prep SS Colson Montgomery, who could be an underslot option here.
11. Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
If Rocker, Jobe and the four prep shortstops don't make it here, I'd expect a college pick from the Nats. Madden gives off similar vibes to their top pick last year, RHP Cade Cavalli from Oklahoma, and Madden seems like a fit for a traditional scouting-oriented club as most progressive-leaning organizations have him ranked closer to 20th. Miami (Ohio) RHP Sam Bachman also isn't seen as likely to go until about a dozen picks later but could be a rocket-armed money saver here.
12. Seattle Mariners
Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College
Seattle could be looking to get one of those three college bats to this pick, and they get to choose between Frelick and Cowser, who are a coinflip on talent. If McLain got here, he would also be in the mix.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State
Benny Montgomery is mentioned a lot, but I'm not sure he gets to this pick, and it may not be much more than proximity. Cowser, Harry Ford and Will Taylor are the top players on my board at this pick. I'd expect the Phillies to jump on a solid value on someone that slipped a few picks.
14. San Francisco Giants
Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork HS (South Carolina), Clemson commit
Taylor was already interesting due to his multisport athletic prowess (state champ in wrestling and as a quarterback) and his meteoric rise this spring with his elite, slot football receiver-for-Clemson ability translating to the diamond as well. Taylor is clearly intrigued with a dual-sport, multi-positional future with the Tigers and the rumor is that he'll early enroll in college next week. As MLB informed me (some teams weren't totally clear on this rule) Taylor will stay eligible for the draft as a high school player until the fall semester begins.
He will be a tricky sign for this reason, but I'll project him to go in the middle of the first round until I get more information. There's some buzz that he's already cut a deal or has a specific, high number in mind, which severely limits the number of teams that can consider him. Picking at the back of the round with no extra picks basically eliminates a team from consideration, like with Nick Bitsko last year.
The Giants seem to also be looking for any of the projected top nine picks or one of the college bats beyond there to fall, with Cowser the one they're linked to most often. Harry Ford fits their preferences, but only as a position change (some have suggested center field) given backstops Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey as recent first rounders.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Georgia), Georgia Tech commit
Ford shouldn't get much past this, with interest starting at pick five with Baltimore. This is about the range where quick-rising Connecticut prep LHP Frank Mozzicato begins to be in play, but the list of weak connections here is long enough that I'll save it for when it's shorter.
16. Miami Marlins
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Like with most of the picks in this range, many of the players projected ahead would make sense if they made it to this pick and Hoglund has interest at multiple spots in this area, with the biggest bonus coming either here or a dozen picks later when clubs' second picks come up. I would expect Miami to line up the next tier of prep bats, which is long and will start coming off the board in a few picks.
17. Cincinnati Reds
Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee HS (Georgia), Clemson commit
Cincinnati has extra picks, and that has led to them being tied to a number of players, but along with the Angels and Braves, they are mentioned most with Chandler. It sounds like Cincy would consider Chandler as a two-way player, and let him hit first then adjust based on results. Florida prep outfielder Jay Allen is a target for their next pick (but now it looks like he won't get there), and Florida prep outfielder James Wood is connected to their third and/or fourth picks.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
College arms Bednar, Hoglund and Wicks all fit the bill here, as do some of the more contact-oriented bats like Allen, Williams, Black and Norby.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (Florida), Florida commit
Toronto was in heavy at a Florida prep All-Star game to see Allen (where he played well). He's in play at the two picks before this and with Tampa Bay's picks just below, so this is the spot to take Allen if the Jays want him. Wake righty Ryan Cusick and Florida outfielder Jud Fabian are also frequently mentioned here.
20. New York Yankees
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Florida), Florida commit
As usual, the Yankees are tied to a number of players this spring both because they have a lot of high-level scouts and people pay attention when they're in the yard. They've shied away from prep arms at their top picks in the past, but it looks like they're taking a longer look this year. If Painter gets much further down than this, he is a leading candidate (along with Hoglund) to be floated to a big bonus in the 30s. Bednar, Nebraska SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach and some of the prep bats a few picks ahead have been tied here.
21. Chicago Cubs
Jud Fabian, CF, Florida
The Cubs seem to be embracing variance more in recent years, and Fabian has that in spades with his massive upside and uneven spring. He may be a tough sign much lower than this, but it seems like someone will meet his price.
22. Chicago White Sox
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (Indiana), Indiana commit
Montgomery and SoCal prep SS Max Muncy have been tied to the White Sox most and at least one of them will be here, possibly both. After years of picking near the top with more conservative college prospects, teams expect the White Sox to make an upside play here.
23. Cleveland Indians
Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines HS (California), Cal commit
Williams fits the model teams well, with compelling two-way talent, a high-contact approach, a shortstop fit and he's young for the class. He'll begin as a hitter (that's his preference), but a number of teams prefer him on the mound. A falling college arm (Madden, Wicks, Bednar) or contact-oriented college bat (Black, Del Castillo, Norby) could make sense given Cleveland's history.
24. Atlanta Braves
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Bednar has landing spots all over the 20s after a strong stretch run, including here to Atlanta. Schwellenbach, McGreevy and the college infielders (Black and Norby) also fit the specs here.
25. Oakland Athletics
Tyler Whitaker, RF, Bishop Gorman HS (Nevada), Arizona commit
Oakland has mostly been tied to prep bats, with Whitaker getting the most run. Alex Mooney is another one who could make it to their its pick.
26. Minnesota Twins
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
The Twins have leaned on big exit velocity power bats in recent drafts, so South Alabama's Ethan Wilson and Pennsylvania dual-sport outfielder Lonnie White Jr. both fit, but Minnesota has been tied to Del Castillo after a weak spring. He was seen by some as a top-10 prospect before the season began and could be a quick-moving bat for a team with good development.
27. San Diego Padres
Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (Connecticut), UConn commit
Mozzicato has skyrocketed in the past few weeks to now being likely to go on the first day (36 picks). Like anyone they're considering (and like with another northeastern prep lefty Anthony Solometo), GM A.J. Preller has gone to see Mozzicato. McGreevy and rising prep SS Jackson Merrill have also been mentioned here.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State
Another prevalent connection in this range is the Rays with Tennessee prep IF Cooper Kinney, but I'm projecting them to take Kinney at their next pick (34th overall), provided the Dodgers at the next pick end up passing. Black and Norby are both Tampa Bay's type and rival clubs expect a college pick here, then a prep and/or overpay at the next one. Prep RHP Michael Morales, prep 3B Wes Kath, prep CF Jay Allen and McGreevy have all been mentioned here, along with Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney. Extra picks really capture the imagination of the industry.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick probably belongs in this area on talent and some have said he reminds them of the Dodgers top pick last year, Louisville RHP Bobby Miller. The Dodgers have been tied to a number of upside types who could use a tweak or two to unlock their potential, since the Dodgers are arguably the best in baseball at that.
A couple notable names didn't make this projection for various reasons. There's enough in the medical history (and velocity) with Miami Ohio RHP Sam Bachman and East Carolina RHP Gavin Williams to cause teams to pause, as those are the two best indicators of future health. Those players aren't for everyone (opinions vary, some teams have guys already mentioned in this mock taken off their boards for medical concerns) but could sneak into the top 29 in the right situation.
Prices for prep prospects haven't been indicated in many cases, but there's far too many top-two round talents for them all to get paid, so scouts have said to expect some surprising stuff at the end of Day 1 and early in Day 2. Some 22-year-olds (Tommy Mace, Robert Gasser or Andrew Abbott) or medical risks could go dozens of picks higher than their true talent to lock in an underslot bonus, then float a prep prospect to a later pick once that prepster has already sailed past the area where slot recommendation equals their demands. My last full mock will be two rounds to try to account for some of these situations, or strong connections at second-round picks.
A couple more rising-out-of-nowhere prospects since my last stock watch who could sneak into the top couple of rounds or get big bonuses later: Iowa prep RHP Brody Brecht (6-foot-4 Hawkeyes wide receiver commit has been into the upper-90s but might be a tough sign) and South Dakota prepsters CF Chase Mason (great athlete with power/speed combo) and RHP Bransen Kuehl (a candidate for a second third-round-level bonus in a later round).