The 2021 MLB draft picture is coming into focus now, with all the top prospects playing for multiple weeks and plenty of time for pop-up types to be seen multiple times by each team. After this group of the top 100 players plus seven who just missed, things really open up and there's a seemingly endless number of players you could squint at and see sneaking into the fourth round if things break right.
Texas high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar and Vanderbilt ace Jack Leiter started to separate themselves as a clear top tier in this group. Beyond them, a pretty consensus second tier has formed, with the majority of teams calling it an overall top eight with the players listed below in a similar order, but there's obviously some room for disagreement toward the tail end of Tier 2 and the top of Tier 3.
The 2021 class is generally seen as a down crop since there isn't a slam-dunk clear 1-1 choice (not to mention no generational talent), but I also found there are about 10-12 players to feel good about as top-20 picks, then a gap where we're missing about 10 players, then some solid 20-30 types, with broad agreement from the industry on this instinct. Obviously, some players will step forward and fill those spots, but 2022's draft class is already seen as better, with a potentially historic prep pitching class and Florida prep CF Elijah Green as that once-every-few-years, slam-dunk talent at the top.
I've had a decent feel for club preference in the top five to seven picks for a few weeks, but not a ton behind that. Events like the Brady House matchup I wrote about last week help greatly to reveal both where I should rank a player, where the interest is, and which teams are in even more than you'd expect. There was one GM at the game I went to, then two GMs at House's next game that I didn't attend, but the information-collecting inclination of scouts (to be fair, I also do it) has them noticing these sorts of team preferences via attendance at specific games.
The last thing to note is an interesting demographic glut of prep hitters in the 20-40 area. There's a big demand for polished position players and a real lack of quality in the college ranks this year, so teams are turning to high schoolers. Some have a strong summer of performance with wood bats against strong competition, which is almost as powerful as one spring of college looks if there's a question about upside, health, competition level, etc. on the college options. I've shuffled the order of these 20-40 prep bats a number of times and clubs seems to be revealing their overall preference for style of hitting prospect by whom they're most enthusiastic about now. The candidates from the colder locales specifically (Benny Montgomery, Lonny White Jr., Alex Mooney, Joe Mack, Josh Baez) just began their seasons and have a chance to jump with a strong start while top-level scouts are coming in now.
I included a tier system for the more casual reader and FV grades for the hard-core types who want to slot players into their team's prospect lists.
Tier 1
See full 2021 draft order here | Initial 2021 rankings
1. Jordan Lawlar (19.0), SS, Jesuit HS (Texas), Vanderbilt commit, 55 FV
Lawlar offers a wide base of exciting tools: a 6-foot-2 shortstop with five above-average tools, plus speed and a long track record of hitting with wood bats against strong pitching. Pick your favorite All-Star shortstop and there's probably at least one thing Lawlar does similar to him. This spring, there has been some swing-and-miss to his game, and he's a little old for the class, which hurts him empirically in draft models. He's still seen as the top prospect in this class by a bit, even amidst Jack Leiter steamrollering the SEC, but it's now close.
2. Jack Leiter (21.2), RHP, Vanderbilt, 55 FV
Leiter has an elite, mid-90s fastball that's a plus-plus pitch and a curveball that's slightly ahead of his slider, but both can be used to put away hitters, and he has the pitchability to help him post what are frankly some totally goofy numbers this year in his first extended exposure to SEC hitters: 55.1 IP, 17 H, 22 BB, 94 K's, 0.98 ERA. The only light negatives here are he's only 6-foot-1, there isn't a 70-grade off-speed pitch, and pitchers get hurt much more often than position players.
Pittsburgh at 1-1 seems inclined to chase upside -- and show patience in a longer full-reset-style rebuild -- so Leiter's shorter timetable doesn't perfectly fit that plan, but neither does Ke'Bryan Hayes already being good for the Pirates in the big leagues, so that's more of a tiebreaker than anything else.
Tier 2
3. Marcelo Mayer (18.6), SS, Eastlake HS (California), USC commit, 50 FV
Mayer's spring season just began, and he's got a real shot to be at the top of this second tier on draft day because he has both the safety (elite hit tool by performance and to the eye, likely to stick at shortstop) and upside (stars in the draft are most often found among elite high school shortstops). He was at only a few events last summer, so his spring performance from here on out will carry some weight, but he has been seen a decent amount before that at Team USA events and because he played alongside 2019 first-rounder Keoni Cavaco at Eastlake. Chatter within the industry is that the slick-handed infielder likely goes either third (Detroit), fourth (Boston) or fifth (Baltimore).
4. Kumar Rocker (21.6), RHP, Vanderbilt, 50 FV
You could argue Rocker belongs at any slot in this second tier, either near the top by leaning on his elite track record, or near the bottom by leaning more on his recent raw stuff. It's going to be dependent on the team we're talking about at each pick, with some strong buzz that Detroit at No. 3 and Kansas City at No. 7 are his most likely landing spots. There's no telling what happens with regard to bonus demands (Rocker is rumored to have turned down big money out of high school and rightfully was seen as the 1-1 favorite a year ago) if he gets past the third pick. Mark Appel's journey as an amateur prospect (No. 8 overall in 2012, didn't sign with Pittsburgh, went No. 1 overall in 2013) is one relevant precedent if Rocker doesn't regain his velocity.
5. Gunnar Hoglund (21.6), RHP, Ole Miss, 50 FV
Hoglund was a mid-first-round prospect entering the spring, then came out firing at 93-96 early in starts with a scouting card littered with 55s and 60s. His four pitches all grade out as 55s, so that's why he isn't right on Leiter's tail, but he's got a good shot to be first to the big leagues in this class and his qualities (good stuff, great feel, great numbers in the SEC, long track record of health, clean delivery/arm action) seem to be appreciated similarly by every team regardless of its evaluative leanings.
6. Henry Davis (21.8), C, Louisville, 50 FV
Davis has really improved and won over doubters this spring, with some hanging 55 hit tool, 60 game power and 65 or 70 raw power, with the performance this year to match those tool grades. He has an Evan Gattis-ish strength-based look to his swing, whereas scouts generally prefer the loose, big-bat-speed type of swing, but that's getting nitpicky for an elite prospect. This at the plate from a first base-only prospect would likely land him around this area in the draft, but he has a little bit of background playing third base (solidly for some scouts), and while a little rough receiving behind the plate, he has a legit 80-grade arm and has plenty of skill in an automatic strike-calling future that might be coming in 2022.
Given the upside of a middle-of-the-order bat who can be a solid catcher in that new reality, Davis is a candidate to get run up even higher on the board. For reference, I prefer him to Heston Kjerstad (last year's underslot No. 2 overall pick by the Orioles, a 45+ FV for me then and now) as a hitter, not to mention the higher defensive upside.
7. Brady House (18.1), SS, Winder Barrow HS (Georgia), Tennessee commit, 50 FV
You can read more about House in this story about his huge matchup last week, but he has had a strong spring and still has 70 raw power, 60 bat speed, deceptive athleticism and some shot to stick at shortstop.
8. Sal Frelick (21.2), CF, Boston College, 50 FV
Frelick is small (listed a 5-foot-9, 170 pounds) and some scouts still can't get the top-10-pick kind of excited about a player of that size. The vast majority think he's a slam-dunk member of this consensus top eight, with 70-grade speed, above-average bat speed, average raw power, at least a 55 hit tool and the multisport background and mentality that make it easier to project improvement.
Tier 3
9. Kahlil Watson (18.2), SS, Wake Forest HS (North Carolina), NC State commit, 45+ FV
Watson is arguably the best hitter in the prep class, he had a strong summer at a number of events, and he's young for the class. Those three facts will help him a ton in the draft models every team is using, with maybe a dozen clubs that lean on them hard. Watson is generally seen as a second baseman long-term and is only a solid-average runner, with above-average raw power he hasn't gotten to in games much yet.
10. Jackson Jobe (18.9), RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma), Ole Miss commit, 45+ FV
Jobe was right behind Painter off of the summer, but was the smaller (6-foot-1 or so), more athletic (a real prospect as a position player) type with insane spin rates (over 3,000 RPM on his breaking ball). He has come out even stronger this spring, with some scouts hanging 65 or 70 grades on all three pitches, with only the rightful stigma/risk profile of prep righty as a negative to consider.
11. Matt McLain (21.9), 2B, UCLA, 45 FV
McLain didn't sign out of high school after being a first-round pick by the Diamondbacks and has had some ups and downs at UCLA, ultimately not making a ton of overall progress on campus similar to last year's first-rounder Garrett Mitchell. McLain has more power now but is not a shortstop for almost any scout now, and his offensive production hasn't matched his upside though there were some signs he might be turning the corner in recent weeks. His younger brother Nick is a prep senior this year and might work his way into the top three rounds.
12. Ty Madden (21.3), RHP, Texas, 45 FV
Madden gets his heater into the upper 90s, goes deep into games with gaudy strikeout numbers, and has a plus slider and a sturdy 6-foot-3 frame; I think that completes Texas power pitcher bingo.
13. Sam Bachman (21.8), RHP, Miami (Ohio), 45 FV
Bachman exploded out of the gates early this spring, hitting 100 mph often (or higher in some cases), with a breaking ball that many scouts have called a 70-grade offering. He has had some arm soreness, has a short track record, isn't facing great competition and comes with some reliever risk, but generally fits the trends within the game and looks ticketed for the top 20 picks.
14. Adrian Del Castillo (21.8), C, Miami, 45 FV
Del Castillo doesn't really light up any scouts, but he's a good-enough catcher with advanced feel to hit and some raw power but more doubles-type power in games right now. That might not inspire you with all these gaudy tools around him on the list, but every-day catchers don't slide far in the draft.
15. Andrew Painter (18.3), RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Florida), Florida commit, 45 FV
Painter was the consensus top prep arm in the class over the summer, with a bag of 55-grade pitches and the frame, delivery and feel to project as a mid-rotation starter. He came out of the gates a bit slow but has come on of late, with his mid-90s heater and slider grading as a 60 in some games.
16. Ryan Cusick (21.7), RHP, Wake Forest, 45 FV
Cusick has the best fastball in the draft, with the bat-missing, backspinning four-seam style that analysts love, up to 100 mph at times, and working in the mid-90s deep into starts. His curveball has below-average spin but plays at least above average in games. His changeup is a nonentity and his command is below average; if a team thinks it can fix both, then he'll go ahead of this slot. He's more likely a quick-moving, high-leverage reliever who can go multiple innings if needed.
17. Jordan Wicks (21.9), LHP, Kansas State, 45 FV
Wicks is the top college lefty with the next one ranked No. 64, so scarcity should help his case in the first round. He came out getting into the mid-90s early in the spring, but works around 90-92 now, with a fringe-to-average slider, but a plus changeup that's his separator.
18. Harry Ford (18.4), C, North Cobb HS (Georgia), Georgia Tech commit, 45 FV
I've often said I don't like picking from the demographic of high school catching early, but Ford has the qualities to make me consider it. He's built like a power lifter but with the elite flexibility to make that work behind the plate, where he'll be an above-average defender who is deceptively at least an above-average runner. He was strong over the summer, adjusted his swing in a bad way this spring and is now in the middle of adjusting it back with the potential for plus raw power.
19. Will Taylor (18.5), CF, Dutch Fork HS (South Carolina), Clemson commit, 45 FV
Taylor is a state championship quarterback, three-time state champion wrestler and now a consensus first-round talent as a center fielder. He's committed to Clemson for baseball and football, though likely to play a slot receiver role. He was solid over the summer as a dynamic athlete and 70 runner who made a lot of contact, then he came out this spring with a more developed upper body and 55-grade raw power.
20. Bubba Chandler (18.8), SS/RHP, North Oconee HS (Georgia), Clemson commit, 45 FV
Chandler is also committed to Clemson but as a quarterback (Dabo Sweeney is not happy with baseball scouts right now) and is a top-50-pick talent as both a switch-hitting infielder and pitcher, though the vast majority of teams prefer him on the mound. He'll sit 93-96 and hit 97 mph early in starts and flash solid-average off-speed pitches with a solid delivery and feel, despite limited reps. Having a real backup option if the position you select him for doesn't work out might get him picked 10-12 slots higher than a comparable prospect.
21. Jaden Hill (21.6), RHP, LSU, 45 FV
Hill was a top-five prospect entering the year despite very few reps in college due to various injuries and the pandemic. He was a bit up-and-down, with some issues around precision and execution (still up to 98 mph, with a 55-grade breaker and 70-grade changeup) and had Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago. I'd expect a bonus for a pick around this area (around $3 million), but likely selected with a team's second pick.
22. Lonnie White Jr. (18.5), CF, Malvern Prep HS (Pennsylvania), Penn State commit, 45 FV
White is a wide receiver commit to Penn State, with more of a running back build than the traditional lanky wide receiver. Some scouts think his type of speed plays down a bit on the diamond and will eventually force a move to right field, but he has plus raw power, big exit velos over the summer, a plus arm and real bat speed, so even those scouts see a candidate for the first or compensation rounds.
23. Benny Montgomery (18.8), CF, Red Land HS (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit, 45 FV
Montgomery has a hand hitch of sorts in his swing but possesses the tools to go ahead of this spot and performed well over the summer. Early buzz from the first wave of evaluators going into Pennsylvania to see him, White and Morales is positive on all three of them.
24. Jackson Baumeister (19.0), RHP, Bolles HS (Florida), Florida State commit, 45 FV
Baumeister has helium with a strong month of performances in some high-profile matchups, and as a very good athlete with big projection, excellent extension and above-average pitches, command and feel for pitching, despite limited innings. I see a lot of similarities with Jack Flaherty at the same stage.
25. Tommy Mace (22.7), RHP, Florida, 45 FV
Mace has been a steady performer over the years, taking a step forward with the shape and style of his stuff this year after spurning mid-second-round money last year. He's old for the class but is one of the more polished prospects in the draft.
Tier 4
26. Alex Binelas (21.1), 3B, Louisville
27. Alex Mooney (19.0), SS, St. Mary's Prep HS (Michigan), Duke commit
28. James Wood (18.8), RF, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Mississippi State commit
29. Thatcher Hurd (18.6), RHP, Mira Costa HS (California), UCLA commit
30. Joe Mack (18.5), C, Williamsville East HS (New York), Clemson commit
31. Ben Kudrna (18.4), RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS (Kansas), LSU commit
32. Chase Petty (18.3), RHP, Mainland Regional HS (New Jersey), Florida commit
33. Josh Hartle (18.3), LHP, Reagan HS (North Carolina), Wake Forest commit
34. Jud Fabian (20.8), CF, Florida
35. Tyler Black (21.0), 2B, Wright State
36. Peyton Wilson (21.7), 2B, Alabama
37. Izaac Pacheco (18.6), 3B, Friendswood HS (Texas), Texas A&M commit
38. Tyler Whitaker (18.9), RF, Bishop Gorman HS (Nevada), Arizona commit
39. Josh Baez (18.0), RF, Dexter Southfield HS (Massachusetts), Vanderbilt commit
40. Will Bednar (21.1), RHP, Mississippi State
41. Colton Cowser (21.2), RF, Sam Houston State
42. Michael McGreevy (21.0), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
43. Michael Morales (18.8), RHP, East Pennsboro Area HS (Pennsylvania), Vanderbilt commit
44. Gage Jump (18.2), LHP, JSerra Catholic HS (California), UCLA commit
45. Luca Tresh (21.5), C, North Carolina State
46. Wes Clarke (21.7), 1B, South Carolina
47. Cooper Kinney (18.5), 3B, Baylor HS (Tennessee), South Carolina commit
48. Braden Montgomery (18.2), RF, Madison Central HS (Mississippi), Stanford commit
49. Jay Allen (18.6), CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (Florida), Florida commit
50. Jonathan Cannon (21.0), RHP, Georgia
51. Mike Vasil (21.2), RHP, Virginia
52. Peyton Stovall (18.4), 2B, Haughton HS (Louisiana), Arkansas commit
53. Maddux Bruns (19.1), LHP, UMS-Wright Prep HS (Alabama), Mississippi State commit
54. McCade Brown (21.2), RHP, Indiana
55. Anthony Solometo (18.6), LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep HS (New Jersey), North Carolina commit
56. Troy Melton (20.6), RHP, San Diego State
57. Cody Schrier (18.4), SS, JSerra Catholic HS (California), UCLA commit
58. Luke Albright (21.6), RHP, Kent State
59. Jac Caglianone (18.4), LHP, Plant HS (Florida), Florida commit
60. Trey Sweeney (21.2), SS, Eastern Illinois
61. Dylan Smith (21.1), RHP, Alabama
62. John Rhodes (20.9), CF, Kentucky
63. Ethan Wilson (21.6), LF, South Alabama
64. Ryan Webb (22.2), LHP, Georgia
65. Colson Montgomery (19.3), SS, Southridge HS (Indiana), Indiana commit
66. Max Muncy (18.7), SS, Thousand Oaks HS (California), Arkansas commit
67. Drake Varnado (18.6), SS, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Arkansas commit
68. Wes Kath (18.9), 3B, Desert Mountain HS (Arizona), Arizona State commit
69. Hunter Goodman (21.8), C, Memphis
70. Edwin Arroyo (17.9), SS, Central Pointe HS (Florida), Florida State commit
71. Jonathan Vastine (18.7), SS, Bartow HS (Florida), Vanderbilt commit
72. Philip Abner (19.2), LHP, Charlotte Christian HS (North Carolina), Florida commit
73. Bryce Miller (22.9), RHP, Texas A&M
74. Christian MacLeod (21.2), LHP, Mississippi State
75. Cody Morissette (21.5), 2B, Boston College
76. Ricky Tiedemann (18.9), LHP, Golden West JC (California)
77. Carter Holton (18.9), LHP, Benedictine Military HS (Georgia), Vanderbilt commit
78. Andrew Abbott (22.1), LHP, Virginia
79. Mason Albright (18.6), LHP, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Virginia Tech commit
80. Max Ferguson (21.9), 2B, Tennessee
81. Ian Moller (18.7), C, Wahlert HS (Iowa), LSU commit
82. Malakhi Knight (18.8), RF, Archbishop Murphy HS (Washington), UCLA commit
83. Jose Torres (21.8), SS, North Carolina State
84. Steven Hajjar (20.9), LHP, Michigan
85. Dustin Saenz (22.1), LHP, Texas A&M
86. Christian Franklin (21.6), RF, Arkansas
87. Joe Rock (21.0), LHP, Ohio
88. Kevin Abel (22.3), RHP, Oregon State
89. Brock Selvidge (18.9), LHP, Hamilton HS (Arizona), LSU commit
90. Sean Burke (21.6), RHP, Maryland
91. Doug Nikhazy (21.9), LHP, Ole Miss
92. Drew Gray (18.2), LHP, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Arkansas commit
93. Caedmon Parker (18.1), RHP, Woodlands Christian HS (Texas), TCU commit
94. Nathan Hickey (21.6), C, Florida
95. Noah Miller (18.7), SS, Ozaukee HS (Wisconsin), Alabama commit
96. Irv Carter (18.8), RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Florida), Miami commit
97. Will Koger (18.7), RHP, Bardstown HS (Kentucky), Louisville commit
98. Daylen Lile (18.6), RF, Trinity HS (Kentucky), Louisville commit
99. Gavin Williams (22.0), RHP, East Carolina
100. Calvin Ziegler (18.8), RHP, TNXL Academy HS (Florida), Auburn commit
Just missed
Tyree Reed (18.5), CF, American Canyon HS (California), Oregon State commit
Lorenzo Carrier (18.1), CF, Appoquinimink HS (Delaware), Miami commit
Peter Heubeck (19.0), RHP, Gilman HS (Maryland), Wake Forest commit
Grant Holman (21.1), RHP, Cal
Richard Fitts (21.6), RHP, Auburn
Seth Lonsway (22.8), LHP, Ohio State
Nic Kent (21.3), 3B, Virginia