We're five weeks out from the 2021 MLB draft with college regionals starting Friday and high school seasons winding down or already wrapped up, so some consensus is building. In other words, it's time for a refresh of my draft rankings that now include 150 prospects.
Two of the hottest names in the country are Connecticut prep left-handed pitcher Frank Mozzicato, who now has some late first-round buzz, and Maryland prep shortstop Jackson Merrill, who has some interest in the top 50 picks. Two American Athletic Conference standouts -- East Carolina second baseman Connor Norby and Houston left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser -- have also steadily moved up since my last ranking, while Oregon right fielder Aaron Zavala now looks like he could go as high as the second round.
This is my ranking of what order I would select players given what I know right now, while the mock draft is what order I think the teams will actually pick the players, and I'll get into some of that below. Instead of blurbs on each player I've ranked, I'll focus on the top handful of players at the top, how they compare, and how the draft might play out.
Before we get into the rankings, here's a quick update on what teams at the top of the draft are likely thinking right now. The first seven names in these rankings are most likely to go in the top half-dozen or so picks with five other players still in play to join them: Oklahoma prep right-handed pitcher Jackson Jobe (three-plus pitches, plus athlete, but still a medium-framed prep righty), Boston College center fielder Sal Frelick (solid spring, good tools, but short and lacks elite upside), Sam Houston State center fielder Colton Cowser (strong base of tools and performance, but also lacks elite upside, top-level competition), Pennsylvania prep center fielder Benny Montgomery (big, skilled performer with a hitch in swing that he's improving on) and Georgia prep catcher Harry Ford (incredible skill set, could play anywhere on the field, has improved swing all spring).
The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more.
Baltimore (No. 5) would take Mayer if he fell there and seems to be most interested in Davis and House, but I wouldn't rule out Kahlil Watson. Arizona (No. 6) is on Watson the most, with Jobe and Frelick also being mentioned. Kansas City (No. 7) is generally seen as the floor for Rocker if he slides that far, but there's also a scenario in which Washington (No. 11) goes all-in and floats a bigger number than full slot for the No. 7 overall pick, or else Rocker has a shot to go back to school if his price isn't met given the preseason expectations of being a No. 1 overall pick some others set. The Royals are also seen as a likely home for House if he gets past the Orioles. Colorado (No. 8) seems like it'd take the leftover prep shortstop if House or Watson makes it there, with a rumor that Benny Montgomery is the pick if neither of them does. Of the 12 players mentioned to this point, I'd expect them to be all of the first eight picks, and nobody should get past the 13-15 area. After that, things really open up. Now on to my rankings.
Complete draft coverage | Mock Draft 1.0 | Draft rankings 2.0
1. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit HS (TX), (Vanderbilt commit)
Lawlar has been at the top of this prep class wire-to-wire since last summer and has arguably been the consensus top overall prospect for at least half of the past year. He has some traditional first overall characteristics, with plus speed, a plus arm, an above-average glove at shortstop, bat speed that is above average to plus and raw power, along with a developed frame that has quickness, and a summer wood bat offensive performance that matches the tools. He had a slow start with strikeout concerns this spring, then finished strong, so you could conservatively say he has five tools (hit, power, speed, glove, arm) that are 55 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major league average.
The concerns are around those whiffs early in the spring (though I haven't found a scout who meaningfully changed his report as a result) and that he turns 19 years old a week after the draft. Age is a big factor empirically on high school hitter projection, but there's plenty of exceptions to this. Every team has a draft model that takes this into account and will round down on the scouting reports and performance but to varying degrees. In terms of comps, there's a little bit of Carlos Correa (but with less quickness) and a feel for the opposite field (like Derek Jeter did) but no perfect recent analog. He'd go in the top half of my top 100 prospects list.
Pulling together some summer video. Makes sense to start with my top prospect in the draft, Jordan Lawlar: pic.twitter.com/gzeRHTXbnW
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) May 31, 2021
2. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA), (USC commit)
Mayer is a little more of a scout's dream in that he's a 6-foot-3, left-handed-hitting shortstop with physical projection, so a scout can lean into what they like to do most: projecting big improvement. Mayer is seen as a better hitter than Lawlar and a comparable defender at the same stage. The concern that comes with that bigger upside is that Mayer is an average runner with average raw power and a little above-average bat speed right now; the impact tools at this moment aren't the same as most top overall picks. That's not a reason to pass, but it underlines how Mayer vs. Lawlar is a question of two different types of shortstops but two with very similar overall value.
If the one you have ranked second is suddenly $1 million cheaper than the other (and you can spend that money on other draftees), a lot of minds in the industry would flip, and I think I'm one of them. If you dream on the projection with Mayer, a common optimistic comp is Corey Seager (here's video I took of him in high school), but I don't think Mayer will get that big. There's some concern that Mayer's lack of defensive quickness means he'll have to slide off of shortstop as he adds bulk, but the added power should compensate for that and nobody really knows how each athlete will add bulk; some players get quicker and they mature and get bigger, with Fernando Tatis Jr. one notable example.
also saw Eastlake HS SS Marcelo Mayer yesterday and he is very good at baseball. 3 BP cuts, line drive at the first baseman, single to CF, then a slo-mo of him just missing it and flying out to right field @Marcelo_Mayer10 pic.twitter.com/4y4ZGGk8KY
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) May 19, 2021
3. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
You've probably seen Leiter pitch on TV before if you're reading this article, and if you thought he pitched kind of like Walker Buehler, that's a common comparison. They're both undersized righties from Vanderbilt who attack the top of the zone with a mid-90s four-seam heater that draws whiffs, and a plus breaking ball largely at the bottom of the zone (Leiter has a slider and curve, while Buehler has both and a cutter).
Leiter's command needs some (but not a ton of) work, like almost any 21-year-old, and the main mark against him is that he's a right-handed college pitcher, which demographically and empirically hasn't been the best group to choose from at the top of prior drafts. This group is better than high school righties, but there's a reason the top of most drafts are littered with hitters. Leiter has ace-level upside, but he isn't a Stephen Strasburg/David Price-level, slam-dunk No. 1 overall pitching prospect and could easily settle as a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, too.
4. Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Davis is a good hitter with a solid approach and 30-homer raw power, with the spring performance to match the tools. He's a solid athlete and has an 80-grade arm behind the plate but isn't very good defensively. With automatic strike calling coming soon, he's good enough to stick back there in that situation, so he picked the right year to be drafted. The tools and performance are strong. Some have suggested he can play a solid third base, but the type of swing Davis has -- strength-based, looking sort of like Evan Gattis -- isn't the loose, bat-speed-based type that teams like to see to project deep into the future. This means he could have trouble with elite stuff but more likely will be fine and just physically peaks early. Most players don't need to project to be really good for 10 years to be worth a top pick, so it's more splitting hairs than anything else.
A good hitter with easy plus power, some defensive value, and ACC performance could well be the best player in the class when all is said and done, but I still prefer the shortstops. This top tier of players could really be put in almost any order and very well could be flipped upside down a year from now. I would expect at least one of the top five picks to play out like a version of what Houston did when it drafted Carlos Correa: declaring a group of players basically the same and just drafting whichever one gives the cheapest bonus demand.
5. Brady House, SS, Winder Barrow HS (GA) (Tennessee commit)
I wrote in depth about House here, but the short version of it is that he's an incredibly skilled, tooled-up shortstop with 30-plus homer power and some questions about his contact abilities while trying to get to that power.
6. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
I broke down Leiter and Rocker when I scouted them both early in the season, and Rocker still has some similar questions on him now. His SEC tournament start showed some of the good but was mostly a mess -- in front of a lot of decision-makers. Rocker's command has been a roller coaster all spring and some scouts question how his bat-missing methods (fastball blown past lesser hitters, slurve for chases out of the zone) will translate to pro ball, while Leiter (his fastball has much better bat-missing characteristics and at least as good breaking stuff and command) doesn't have that question. Toss on top that Rocker has a maxed-out frame along with velocity fluctuations this spring, and you can line up enough reasons to see a down arrow after his outstanding freshman year and just take a position player instead, but there's plenty to like here as well.
7. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) (N.C. State commit)
Watson has been scorching hot of late, with a three-homer game earlier this week after a strong summer performance. He's also 18.2 on draft day and will fit at either shortstop or second base in pro ball, helping him in draft models. Similar to C.J. Abrams a few years ago, Watson had a solid summer and showed power in batting practice but not so much in games, with more power showing up in BP and creeping into games as the draft approached. Watson isn't the elite runner that Abrams is and has a more compact frame. Watson would also pretty comfortably fit into my top 100 prospects list right when he signs, as well.
and Kahlil Watson: pic.twitter.com/HKmymvYdiz
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) May 31, 2021
8. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) (Ole Miss commit)
9. Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College
10. Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State
11. Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land HS (PA) (Virginia commit)
12. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA) (Georgia Tech commit)
13. Matt McLain, 2B, UCLA
14. Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork HS (SC) (Clemson commit)
15. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
16. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL) (Florida commit)
17. Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (IN) (Indiana commit)
18. Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State
19. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (GA) (Clemson commit)
20. Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
21. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida
22. Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines HS (CA) (Cal commit)
23. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
24. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
25. Cooper Kinney, 3B, Baylor HS (TN) (South Carolina commit)
26. Lonnie White Jr., RF, Malvern Prep HS (PA) (Penn State commit)
27. Tyler Whitaker, RF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) (Arizona commit)
28. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (NJ) (UNC commit)
29. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
30. Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
31. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
32. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS (KS) (LSU commit)
33. Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois
34. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami Ohio
35. Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (UCLA commit)
36. Connor Norby, 2B, East Carolina
37. Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro Area HS (PA) (Vanderbilt commit)
38. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (CT) (UConn commit)
39. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
40. Peyton Wilson, 2B, Alabama
41. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY) (Clemson commit)
42. Ethan Wilson, LF, South Alabama
43. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ) (Florida commit)
44. Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama
45. Cody Schrier, SS, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (UCLA commit)
46. Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks HS (CA) (Arkansas commit)
47. Daylen Lile, RF, Trinity HS (KY) (Louisville commit)
48. Josh Baez, RF, Dexter Southfield HS (MA) (Vanderbilt commit)
49. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton HS (LA) (Arkansas commit)
50. James Wood, RF, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Mississippi State commit)
51. Robert Gasser, LHP, Houston
52. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
53. Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
54. Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Bolles HS (FL) (Florida State commit)
55. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood HS (TX) (Texas A&M commit)
56. Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagan HS (NC) (Wake Forest commit)
57. Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain HS (AZ) (Arizona State commit)
58. Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee HS (WI) (Alabama commit)
59. Alex Mooney, SS, St. Mary's Prep HS (MI) (Duke commit)
60. Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa HS (CA) (UCLA commit)
61. Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia
62. McCade Brown, RHP, Indiana
63. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Golden West JC (CA)
64. Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
65. Mat Nelson, C, Florida State
66. Irv Carter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL) (Miami commit)
67. Ryan Bliss,, SS, Auburn
68. John Rhodes, RF, Kentucky
69. Nathan Hickey, C, Florida
70. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
71. Braden Montgomery, RF, Madison Central HS (MS) (Stanford commit)
72. Nick McLain, CF, Beckman HS (CA) (UCLA commit)
73. Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL) (Florida commit)
74. Mike Vasil, RHP, Virginia
75. Michael Robertson, CF, Venice HS (FL) (Florida commit)
76. Dominic Hamel, RHP, Dallas Baptist
77. Lorenzo Carrier, CF, Appoquinimink HS (DE) (Miami commit)
78. Doug Nikhazy, LHP, Ole Miss
79. Edwin Arroyo, SS, Central Pointe HS (FL) (Florida State commit)
80. Cody Morissette, 2B, Boston College
81. Will Koger, RHP, Bardstown HS (KY) (Louisville commit)
82. Chad Dallas, RHP, Tennessee
83. Aaron Zavala, RF, Oregon
84. Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park HS (MD) (Kentucky commit)
85. Luca Tresh, C, North Carolina State
86. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
87. Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL) (Mississippi State commit)
88. Jac Caglianone, LHP, Plant HS (FL) (Florida commit)
89. Peter Heubeck, RHP, Gilman HS (MD) (Wake Forest commit)
90. Isaiah Thomas, RF, Vanderbilt
91. Troy Melton, RHP, San Diego State
92. Grant Holman, RHP, Cal
93. Ky Bush, LHP, Saint Mary's
94. Landon Marceaux, RHP, LSU
95. Max Ferguson, 2B, Tennessee
96. Sean Burke, RHP, Maryland
97. Carter Jensen, C, Park Hill HS (KS) (LSU commit)
98. Jacob Walsh, 1B, Desert Oasis HS (NV) (Oregon commit)
99. Caedmon Parker, RHP, Woodlands Christian HS (TX) (TCU commit)
100. Kevin Abel, RHP, Oregon State
101. Carter Holton, LHP, Benedictine Military HS (GA) (Vanderbilt commit)
102. Mason Albright, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Virginia Tech commit)
103. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, TNXL Academy HS (FL) (Auburn commit)
104. Chase Burns, RHP, Beech HS (TN) (Tennessee commit)
105. Roman Kimball, RHP, P27 Academy HS (SC) (Notre Dame commit)
106. Brady Allen, RF, South Carolina
107. Hunter Goodman, C, Memphis
108. Davis Diaz, C, Acalanes HS (CA) (Vanderbilt commit)
109. James Triantos, SS, Madison HS (VA) (North Carolina commit)
110. Jonathan Vastine, SS, Bartow HS (FL) (Vanderbilt commit)
111. Roc Riggio, 2B, Thousand Oaks HS (CA) (Oklahoma State commit)
112. Payton Green, SS, Crossroads Flex HS (NC) (N.C. State commit)
113. Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
114. Dustin Saenz, LHP, Texas A&M
115. Christian MacLeod, LHP, Mississippi State
116. Wes Clarke, 1B, South Carolina
117. Luke Albright, RHP, Kent State
118. Ryan Holgate, RF, Arizona
119. Eric Hammond, RHP, Keller HS (TX) (USC commit)
120. Christian Franklin, LF, Arkansas
121. Drew Gray, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Arkansas commit)
122. Chase Silseth, RHP, Arizona
123. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Washington State
124. Jose Torres, SS, North Carolina State
125. Tyler McDonough, 2B, North Carolina State
126. Jacob Young, CF, Florida
127. Russell Smith, LHP, TCU
128. Bryce Miller, RHP, Texas A&M
129. Justice Thompson, CF, North Carolina
130. Justyn Henry-Malloy, 3B, Georgia Tech
131. Ryan Spikes, SS, Parkview HS (GA) (Tennessee commit)
132. Brock Selvidge, LHP, Hamilton HS (AZ) (LSU commit)
133. Eric Silva, RHP, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (UCLA commit)
134. Will Frizzell, 1B, Texas A&M
135. Pierce Coppola, LHP, Verona HS (NJ) (Florida commit)
136. Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (IA) (LSU commit)
137. Chayce McDermott, RHP, Ball State
138. Cameron Cauley, SS, Barbers Hill HS (TX) (Texas Tech commit)
139. James Tibbs III, RF, Pope HS (GA) (Florida State commit)
140. Coleman Willis, RHP, Houston County HS (GA) (Georgia commit)
141. Ivan Melendez, 3B, Texas
142. Steven Hajjar, LHP, Michigan
143. Ryan Webb, LHP, Georgia
144. Malakhi Knight, CF, Marysville Getchell HS (WA) (UCLA commit)
145. Tommy DiLandri, CF, Palo Verde HS (NV) (TCU commit)
146. Alec Willis, RHP, Regis Jesuit HS (CO) (Minnesota commit)
147. Caleb Roberts, C, North Carolina
148. Mason Miller, RHP, Gardner-Webb
149. Vincent Trapani, RHP, Memorial HS (WI) (Arkansas commit)
150. Hagen Smith, LHP, Bullard HS (TX) (Arkansas commit)