The 2021 MLB draft starts July 11, so we're about six weeks out and the consensus in the industry is now ballooning out from just the top 10 or so picks to beyond the first round. To get a more well-rounded take on players in the top two rounds, I spent last week in Southern California seeing both amateur and pro prospects, but for a draft-focused article, I'll stay on that topic.
Here is a look at some of the most intriguing players I saw, along with the most interesting names shooting up draft boards at the right time.
On Friday I was at UCLA for what was set to be a first-round matchup of Bruins IF Matt McLain and UC Santa Barbara righty Michael McGreevy. McLain broke his thumb the week before so he wasn't available, but he's also been on the national scouting radar for four years, while McGreevy popped onto it this spring.
McGreevy fits the trend of athletic pitchers with a clean delivery, arm action, and above-average strike throwing ability, but merely average-to-above raw stuff, as outlined here. McGreevy benefits from being at the same school as Shane Bieber, the foremost example of this approach to scouting and development. McGreevy also has his own markers for further development in pro ball, as he is a converted shortstop and his fastball was 88-91 mph last spring, but is more 90-95, touching 96 mph this spring. He doesn't have great bat-missing characteristics to his fastball (this is often, but not always, fixable), but his above-average, spiked breaking ball is his best pitch, along with a usable, average-flashing changeup that he doesn't use much. McGreevy has interest in the 20s while other teams see him more in the 30s as a talent; there was a surprising amount of heat at the game including a GM and multiple scouting directors picking in the 20s.
The main reason for the trip was Eastlake HS shortstop Marcelo Mayer, long projected for the top three picks and a possible No. 1 overall pick candidate, but I'll also save that for an upcoming look at the intrigue at the top of the draft.
I saw three prep shortstops in addition to Mayer who all figure to go in the top two rounds: Torrey Pines' Carson Williams (Cal commit), JSerra Catholic's Cody Schrier (UCLA commit), and Thousand Oaks' Max Muncy (Arkansas commit). Williams probably goes off the board first in large part because he's also a top-two-rounds prospect as a pitcher, with an effortless mid-90s heater and a sharp breaking ball, even though he's indicated he wants to be a shortstop in pro ball; there's a slight industry preference for him as a position player. Williams isn't super toolsy, more of a medium projection type who is a solid defender and makes a lot of contact with enough power to project as an every-day guy.
Muncy (no relation to the Dodgers' slugger) is along the same lines, but with a little more twitch and raw power to his game. He also has interest from some teams in the 20s but likely goes just outside of the first round. Schrier is the biggest and fastest of the group, with the most raw power and the grip-it-and-rip-it approach in any count to help tap into his pop in games. He'll need some refinement in a couple areas in pro ball but likely goes somewhere in the second round.
On the pitching side, I saw Schrier's teammate, lefty Gage Jump (UCLA commit) and he's steadily improved since the summer. Then, he relied mostly on his command and an excellent fastball that has every bat-missing characteristic but didn't showcase his off-speed stuff very often. He's now working with a pretty optimized four-pitch mix and all four are at least average, with his curveball the best off-speed offering of the three. He's not huge at 5-foot-11 but fits exactly the type some progressive teams like Milwaukee look for in developmental arms, as another SoCal prospect with a chance to sneak into the 20s.
Lastly, I also saw Golden West JC lefty Ricky Tiedemann, the best juco prospect in the draft and still just 18 years old. There's some buzz among scouts that he would've gone in the top 50 picks last year out of high school if he had a full spring to show what he's shown this spring. He has further filled out his 6-foot-3 frame and sat 90-93 mph for the whole outing, mixing in an above-average slurve, above-average changeup and solid pitchability. The broad effectiveness of his three-pitch mix was evidenced by Tiedemann striking out 13 over 5 2/3 IP, with five by fastball, four by slurve, four by changeup. He slings from a lower slot and his four-seam fastball moves like a two-seamer due to the side spin created by his arm slot, but his east/west repertoire works for whiffs -- even though it isn't the traditional north/south orientation like Jump's that most teams prefer. It sounds like Tiedemann is likely to go in the second round.
Rising from my recent top 100
The top tier of the draft consisting of roughly eight to 10 players has come into focus and so have team preferences and the mix of players each team seems to be considering. There's also a number of players who have been seen as likely first-rounders since the summer, like Texas RHP Ty Madden and Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund, along with players whose spot in the first round was clear months ago, like South Carolina prep CF Will Taylor (Clemson commit).
Here, I'll focus instead on the current arrow-up players from the last month or so, mostly players who have moved up since the latest update to my draft top 100 and first stab at a mock draft.
Starting with college position players, Florida CF Jud Fabian has been riding a rollercoaster this spring. He was ticketed for the top 10 entering the spring, then had a historic run of swing-and-miss (first chasing off-speed, then sitting on off-speed and missing fastballs), then quieted his two-strike swing and now is making more contact. He has potential 30 home run power and can play an average center field, so the upside is still tremendous and he has interest in the middle of the first round, though some teams are convinced he's another Jeren Kendall (the Dodgers bust first-round center fielder from Vanderbilt).
I mentioned at the end of my first mock that Nebraska SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach has some late-first-round buzz and, like Carson Williams, has legit top-two round talent both ways but wants to hit primarily in pro ball. Teams are still split on his offensive upside, with some having him as more of a third rounder and others in the late first just because of that issue, with pitching as an interesting backup plan. Three other rising college position players are Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney (another player with some buzz as high as the late 20s), East Carolina 2B Connor Norby (mediocre raw tools but great performance and feel to hit, probably a second rounder), and Florida State C Mat Nelson (huge in-game power this year, solid defender, but 22 years old with contact questions, fitting in second or early third round).
On the college pitching end of things, McGreevy has steadily risen from second round projections early in the spring, while Mississippi State RHP Will Bednar has moved from the third to the late first with a dominating spring while Houston LHP Robert Gasser has gone from relative unknown to a pitcher with a chance to go in the top 50 picks. Bednar relies on a 91-95 mph heater with some bat-missing characteristics, a plus slider, and above-average control, while Gasser is the next in line of college lefties with a plus slider and low-90s heater to go somewhere just after the first round, similar to Rays lefties John Doxakis (61st overall in 2019) and Ian Seymour (57th in 2020), or Yankees lefty T.J. Sikkema (39th in 2019). Saint Mary's 6-foot-6 lefty Ky Bush and Cal 6-foot-6 righty Grant Holman are rising college arms with mid-90s heat on the West Coast. Dallas Baptist righty Dominic Hamel will appeal to more analytically inclined clubs in the top three rounds, and East Carolina righty Gavin Williams now has the command to harness his upper-90s heater.
Among prep position players, I mentioned Carson Williams and Max Muncy above, while Indiana prep SS Colson Montgomery (Indiana commit) is the other prep infielder who now looks likely to go in the top 29 picks. He's old for the class and may slide over to third base, but has big raw power, is a plus athlete, and has been outstanding this spring. Three prep position players that now look likely to land in the top 50 overall selections are Tennessee prep third baseman Cooper Kinney (South Carolina commit; nice combination of lefty hitter with contact, power, infield hands), Kentucky prep right fielder Daylen Lile (Louisville commit; one of the best lefty swings in the draft), and Arizona prep third baseman Wes Kath (Arizona State commit; big raw power, strong spring). As rising prospects with a chance to sneak into the second or early third round, keep an eye on North Carolina prep shortstop Payton Green (NC State commit), SoCal prep center fielder Nick McLain (UCLA; Matt's little brother), Nevada prep first baseman Jacob Walsh (Oregon), Florida prep center fielder Michael Robertson (Florida), and NorCal converted catcher Davis Diaz (Vanderbilt).
Lastly, on the prep pitching front, I tweeted just after the mock draft about the rise of Connecticut prep lefty Frank Mozzicato (UConn commit), who would probably go in the second round if the draft were today -- powered by four straight no-hitters and a knockout curveball. While we're talking no-nos, Texas prep lefty Hagen Smith (Arkansas commit) has seven of them this spring, in just 11 total starts, but has already had Tommy John surgery. A number of northeastern prep arms started the spring in the top two rounds but have moved up, including New Jersey lefty Anthony Solometo (North Carolina commit), Pennsylvania righty Michael Morales (Vanderbilt), and triple-digit-heat-producing New Jersey righty Chase Petty (Florida). Georgia righty Coleman Willis (Georgia commit), Pennsylvania righty Luke Holman (Alabama) and Maryland righty Peter Heubeck (Wake Forest) have both improved and are threats to turn pro while Colorado 6-foot-6 righty Alec Willis (Minnesota) came out of nowhere to show a mid-90s heater.