We're two months out from the first day of the 2021 MLB draft (July 11-13), and things are starting to come into focus, both in terms of ranking prospects and connecting players, or at least types of players, with teams in the first round.
This draft class is down a bit because it lacks a slam dunk No. 1 overall pick and because the group of flawed players starts around a dozen players in, which is a little earlier than usual.
The crop of college position players is a clear weakness of this draft class, while the group of high school position players is one of the notable strengths. Because of this and the impact of the pandemic on scouting, I think you'll see prep hitters with a long track record of hitting treated like college hitters traditionally are. Meanwhile, college hitters don't have their usual two or three years plus a recent summer of performance, due to the pandemic, so there is less information associated with them than usual.
Here's how I see the first 29 picks (remember, the Houston Astros again do not have a first-round draft pick this year) playing out right now.
See full 2021 draft order here | Top 100 prospects
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit H.S. (TX), Vanderbilt commit
Lawlar is still the favorite to go first, partly because he fits Pittsburgh's organizational focus (upside, regardless of how long it takes). He's also the best prospect at the moment, despite some swing-and-misses in high school games. He's a 6-foot-2 shortstop who is a plus runner with above-average hit and power tools. Only a handful of prospects like that are in the minors right now.
2. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Leiter has proved mortal in his past few outings and was a late scratch against Alabama last weekend, but indications are that it's nothing serious. The Rangers need dynamic talent in their system, and this may be the easiest pick in the draft because Texas will decide based on whichever -- Lawler or Leiter -- Pittsburgh passes on.
3. Detroit Tigers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake H.S. (CA), USC commit
Mayer is a fluid defender with advanced feel for contact and above-average power potential in a projectable 6-3 frame. There isn't an outrageous 70-grade tool, but basically everything else is here, and you can't rule out one showing up later.
Detroit has been on Mayer heavy, and he's the leading candidate to go third, but the Tigers are known to put enormous weight on SEC performance and love power pitchers, so either of the Vandy arms is still a possibility. They've also been in deep on multiple occasions, including GM Al Avila, to see Brady House.
4. Boston Red Sox
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
I wouldn't say that Rocker is exactly Chaim Bloom's type, per se, but there's widespread industry speculation that the Red Sox are likely to take Rocker if he's available, which he's expected to be. His velocity has rebounded a bit since dipping in March, but his last outing vs. Alabama was less than stellar.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Davis may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft, and he has a real shot, in baseball's automatic-strike-calling future, to do it at the most valuable position on the field. He's not a very good receiver but can catch the ball well enough to stay at the position. Offensively, Davis has plus-plus raw power with an effective, strength-based swing that has crushed the ACC this year. GM Mike Elias has been in to see House a few times, and the O's are rumored to be high on Mayer as well, with almost no chance they take a pitcher at this pick. Seriously, look at their last two drafts.
If you're wondering if Adley Rutschman means the O's won't take Davis, I don't think it does. Davis has played a little bit of third base in the past (and done so capably), and even rotating the two of them between DH, first base and maybe left field should work to get both bats in the lineup. In the batter's box alone, I think Davis is better than Heston Kjerstad -- whom Baltimore took with the No. 2 overall pick last year as a right fielder.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College
It's unclear exactly what the Diamondbacks do here, but Frelick fits their preferences perfectly. Davis is a nice fit as well, and House doesn't really fit them at all. Looking at Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Matt McLain, you can see the trend in up-the-middle contact-first shorter-armed types, and Frelick is exactly that. He's a 70 runner with at least average raw power, above-average contact skills and some background playing the infield if they want to move him to second base at some point. Due to his size, I don't think Frelick goes much higher than this, but I also don't think he gets out of the top 10.
7. Kansas City Royals
Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow H.S. (GA), Tennessee commit
House is in play for the Tigers and Orioles, but this is his sweet spot as he's very likely to go in the top 10 picks. I wrote up his heavily scouted matchup with top 2022 prep arm Dylan Lesko and why teams are concerned about his contact rate against pro-level stuff, but not really anything else. The parallels to Bobby Witt Jr. (dynamic, tooled-up infielder with huge power, three years of national scouting track record) are compelling, and those two would strike a nice balance with the Royals' recent run of college pitchers with top picks. It's unlikely, but it should be mentioned that the Royals would do backflips if Rocker somehow got to this pick.
8. Colorado Rockies
Editor's Note: Hoglund will need Tommy John surgery on his right arm according to a source on Tuesday afternoon, which would make UCLA's Matt McLain the most likely pick for Colorado at No. 8 and drop Hoglund to the 15-25 range of Round 1.
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Hoglund walked off the mound in the first inning of Friday's start due to what his coach called forearm stiffness after the game. It isn't clear yet how serious this is, so I'll operate as though he'll be fine until we know for sure. With Rocker's recent velocity bounce-back, Hoglund was generally seen as the third college arm, just ahead of the Cusick/Madden/Bachman group. That likely puts him outside of the top five but securely in the top half of the first round.
His diagnosis obviously could adjust this, but his stuff fits the Rockies' stated preference to lean toward sinker-type fastballs rather than four-seamers. It sounds like House is a leading possibility if he makes it to this pick.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee H.S. (GA), Clemson commit
The Angels have been all over Chandler all spring, and the chatter is that they prefer him as a switch-hitting shortstop, where some scouts have suggested physical and swing similarities to a certain former switch-hitting Braves legend and Hall of Famer that I won't name. Making it even more intriguing is that most teams seem to prefer Chandler on the mound, where he's up to 97 mph and flashes a solid three-pitch mix with some feel despite limited baseball reps. He's also committed to Clemson to play quarterback and shortstop. One more element on the intrigue-o-meter is that Kumar Rocker also went to North Oconee three years ago.
The fascinating question is if the consensus view of Chandler is a mid-to-late first-round pitcher and a compensation-to-second-round position player, do you take him in the top half of the first round because he can do both, giving you a backup plan? Do you let him do both in pro ball? We still haven't totally answered that question with Shohei Ohtani.
10. New York Mets
Matt McLain, 2B, UCLA
McLain broke his thumb last week and will miss at least a few weeks, but I ultimately don't think it'll affect his draft stock two months from now. McLain got off to a slow start this spring before heating up the last month or so.
11. Washington Nationals
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall H.S. (OK), Ole Miss commit
Jobe was up to 99 mph in his last outing and, for some scouts, has three plus pitches headlined by his 3,000-plus rpm two-plane breaking ball. He's not huge but possesses incredible stuff with solid arm action and delivery. He could go as high as No. 6 to Arizona, but medium-framed prep righties can be a risky proposition, so I could also see him sliding as far as a few picks behind this.
12. Seattle Mariners
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick is probably a reliever, but he's been up to 100 mph with the best fastball in the draft (the exact type who gets whiffs up in the zone) and a 55-maybe-60 grade breaking ball, but no real usable third pitch and 45-grade command. It's unlikely he solves the command and third pitch enough to be a 180-inning starter, but he could be a late-inning and/or multi-inning relief option pretty quickly. I would expect a college player to be the pick here.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land H.S. (PA), Virginia commit
Montgomery is one of the bigger risers in recent weeks, as high-level scouts have been running through to see the unusually high dozen or so notable potential early-round picks at northeastern high schools. Montgomery had a quirky hand pump in his swing but otherwise was an elite prospect over the summer. He's now toned that down a bit, letting his above-average contact skills and speed stand out.
14. San Francisco Giants
Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State
Cowser got on the national radar during the summer after his freshman year, playing for Team USA and standing out as one of the best pure hitters -- but a bit of a tweener in terms of power/speed -- on a team of high draftees. He's still benefiting from that familiarity with scouts given his mid-major spring competition while developing a little more power, performing well and looking like he can play center field for some teams. All of this has helped him make his way into mid-first-round discussions.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami Ohio
Bachman is exciting -- and a little risky -- as a relatively late pop-up arm who is over 100 mph with a 70-grade breaking ball but some reliever-ish vibes to the delivery and some minor dings this spring.
16. Miami Marlins
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest H.S. (NC), North Carolina State commit
Watson was arguably the best overall hitter on the showcase circuit last summer, but has come out of the gates a little slowly in a later-than-usual start to the North Carolina prep season. He's only an average runner, and my guess is that he ends up at second base, but there's above-average raw power and potential for a plus hitter. Typically when the industry misses the evaluation on a prep hitter, it's because they considered a poor spring too much over a strong summer, so I wouldn't expect Watson to slide that far.
17. Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian H.S. (FL), Florida commit
Painter is the consensus second-best prep arm behind Jobe, and Painter checks all the basic boxes with size, delivery, above average-to-plus stuff and track record. There isn't a knockout 70-grade pitch, and the prep righty demographic is scary, but he's doing almost everything he can do.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden is a big power righty from Texas that relies on a standout fastball/slider combination. He is generally seen as likely to fit at picks eight to twelve as a safer college arm with some stuff and performance, but a number of teams aren't as enthusiastic about him in that area (I won't spend time in the mock breaking down his vertical approach angle). If someone slides a half-dozen picks from general expectations, he's a decent guess.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb H.S. (GA), Georgia Tech commit
Ford is from the risk-laden subset of high school catchers, but has the components to make teams more comfortable: standout athleticism, speed, defensive skills and contact skills. He's also got above-average raw power and has been steadily improving his swing mechanics throughout the spring.
20. New York Yankees
Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork H.S. (SC), Clemson commit
Taylor is largely getting lumped together with Montgomery, Watson and Ford, as the prep bats in the middle of the round, so the exact order will be mostly a function of team preference. Taylor is a Clemson football commit like Chandler, but as a slot receiver. He also won a state championship as a quarterback and has three state titles in wrestling.
21. Chicago Cubs
Jud Fabian, CF, Florida
Fabian was in the top half of the first round to start the year but fell because of whiff problems. Due to the high bonus expectations, he is likely to go back to Florida for the 2022 draft to prove himself again. He has trended up the last few weeks though and now is seen as likely to find a home in the middle to latter part of the first round.
22. Chicago White Sox
Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Hill was a top-10 pick entering the year despite a short track record on the mound and some injuries. He was up-and-down with flashes of greatness this spring, then went down with Tommy John surgery. The lack of track record and polish puts him next to advanced high school pitchers, but the surgery timeline pushes Hill behind the top couple of prep arms. He also may land in the comp or early second round where a team can spread savings from their first pick, but I'd expect a bonus in line with the 15th to 25th overall pick (i.e. $3-4 million).
23. Cleveland Indians
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
Del Castillo isn't the most exciting prospect. He's a fine defender and hitter with offensive upside who stood out for his first two years in Miami but has been just OK this spring. The position is grueling, making the offensive bar low. Del Castillo has a history of hitting going back to high school, so he shouldn't get much further than this.
24. Atlanta Braves
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks could go as high as the middle of the teens, but slides a bit in this scenario due to a lack of impact stuff. He should miss a decent amount of bats with a plus changeup, solid pitchability and an average fastball/slider combo even though his slider is inconsistent.
25. Oakland Athletics
Alex Mooney, SS, St. Mary's Prep H.S. (MI), Duke commit
Mooney is old for the prep class (19 on draft day) but otherwise performed well last summer and this spring at the plate, with improved in-game power, above-average speed and a glove that can stick at short. Mooney was scouted by Tigers GM Al Avila recently, clearly hoping he makes it to their pick at 32nd overall.
26. Minnesota Twins
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East H.S. (NY), Clemson commit
Mack is one of the better prep bats in the class, with a combination of contact, power and track record. He's also a solid defender, especially in light of likely changes to automatic strike calling. His older brother, infielder Charles, was an over-slot 6th-round pick of the Twins out of the same high school in 2018.
27. San Diego Padres
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace H.S. (NJ), North Carolina commit
Solometo has come out of the gates hot, hitting as high as 98 mph in 2021 after showing well last summer as more of a pitchability lefty. The concern is his longer arm action, but the combination of above-average stuff and feel from the left side fits the Padres type. GM A.J. Preller has been seen scouting a number of the prep hitters in this area already this spring.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
McGreevy has been a steady riser since opening the spring as a second-round pick and could fit in a number of spots from 25 to 35. He draws Shane Bieber comps since they both went to UCSB with some similarities in their amateur profile. It's just very unlikely McGreevy takes off in pro ball like Bieber did. The Rays pick again at 34, and I'd expect a prep pitcher or middle infielder (two common demographics for them) to be one of their early picks.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest H.S. (KS), LSU commit
Kudrna fits in the Dodgers mold of power arms, and they've been tied mostly to prep players, which makes sense given their top-tier development.
It's worth noting a couple of players who didn't make this projection, but could go right after this pick and will be much higher in the next version of my rankings: Nebraska SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach and SoCal prep SS/RHP Carson Williams. Both are legitimate two-way prospects with big arm speed, but both are likely just shortstops in pro ball.