Editor's note: This story originally published on Jan. 15 before the New York Yankees and DJ LeMahieu agreed to a six-year, $90 million deal, George Springer joined the Toronto Blue Jays on a six-year, $150 million deal and J.T. Realmuto returned to the Phillies on a five-year, $115.5 million deal.
After a very slow start to the winter, the MLB offseason finally started to pick up with three of the big four free agents signing deals in January. But there are still stars like Trevor Bauer, Marcell Ozuna, Marcus Semien and Nelson Cruz available weeks before spring training.
As we wait for news about where all of these players wind up, ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, David Schoenfield and Jesse Rogers take a snapshot on where things stand for the top players still available on Kiley McDaniel's initial free-agent rankings.
The big four (that is now down to one)
Trevor Bauer: Bauer has been on his own tier among free-agent pitchers ever since the World Series ended. Part of that is because he was the best pitcher available; part of it is he is several years younger than the other best pitchers available.
Why is the only ace-level free-agent pitcher on the market still dangling out there for anyone to grab? Again, there is a dual answer: His scarce combination of skill and age gives him a lot of economic leverage. Also, he's Trevor Bauer. There is a lot that comes with adding that name to your roster.
That's certainly not to suggest that teams wouldn't want Bauer because of his outspoken ways. It's more that there are a lot of atypical items on his list of wants, which makes matching up a bit more complicated than coughing up the highest AAV. Still, the bottom line is the important one, which is that Bauer is the one pitcher left on the market who most moves the competitive needle for every team in the major leagues. There hasn't been much in the way of meaty information about Bauer on the rumor mill, beyond his own confirmation that he was going to speak with the Blue Jays a couple of weeks back. That makes the task of projecting Bauer's landing place one without the guidance of many decipherable tea leaves.
Prediction: Giants. The Giants are a sleeping, well, giant with few long-term payroll commitments. Other factors: The creative fit between Bauer and the Farhan Zaidi-led front office, the ballpark, and even the proximity of the club to Silicon Valley might appeal to a player so interested in what technology can do for his game and his personal brand. It's a combination that makes this an ideal match. -- Bradford Doolittle
Editor's note: This story originally published before LeMahieu and Realmuto re-signed with their teams, and Springer joined the Blue Jays. Here is what we predicted for all three on Jan. 15:
J.T. Realmuto: The largest total contract value among position players so far this winter went to a catcher -- the four-year, $40.6 million the Mets gave to James McCann. According to Baseball-Reference.com, over the past three years, McCann has compiled 4.2 WAR. Realmuto has put up 10.3, and he's a year younger. There is nothing more scarce in today's MLB landscape than a bona fide every-day, two-way catcher. Realmuto is the best in the game and there isn't a team in the majors that doesn't improve by putting him atop its depth chart. He's also going to be expensive.
Given the rise of the Mets, the strength of the Braves, hopes for a bounce back by the Nationals and the rapid improvement of the Marlins, it's hard to see a plan for contention in the NL East for the Phillies that isn't topped by re-signing Realmuto. And Philly did not hire Dave Dombrowski to run its front office to rebuild. Still, if that sensible reunion doesn't come to pass, the Nationals (ouch), Cardinals (if Yadier Molina leaves), Astros, Yankees, Angels and Marlins (ouch again) are all contention hopefuls that make sense. Also, once again there is Toronto. The Blue Jays doesn't have an urgent need for a catching upgrade but if they really need to spend, they could sign Realmuto and swing a trade from their newly created depth to upgrade the roster elsewhere.
Prediction: Phillies. The addition of Dombrowski is the key signifier here. Assuming relations between the club and Realmuto's representatives remain good, the Phillies will let the market determine the parameters of a deal, then beat it. That seems like the most likely outcome here. Otherwise, the fit between Realmuto and a Nationals catching depth chart topped by Yan Gomes looms as a terrifying prospect for Phillies fans. -- Doolittle
George Springer: The Mets seemed like a good spot for Springer for most of the winter. That may have changed with the recent blockbuster trade between New York and Cleveland that sent star shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco to the Big Apple. The Mets reportedly are looking to steer clear of the $210 million luxury tax threshold for 2021, so suddenly the math of accommodating Springer doesn't work. Still, the buzz around Springer's prospects remains positive. He's going to get paid.
Prediction: Blue Jays. The smoke-to-fire ratio around Toronto in the rumor mill has been heavily tilted toward the former. For all we've read about the Jays' supposed aggressiveness, their winter haul at the moment consists of re-signing starter Robbie Ray to a one-year, $8 million contract. That's going to change and Toronto's need for a Springer-level outfielder is acute. -- Doolittle
DJ LeMahieu: Earlier in the week, ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote, "Today is the 77th day since free agency started that the New York Yankees could sign DJ LeMahieu, and so far they are 0-for-76." You can tack another couple of days onto those tallies. LeMahieu's free agency has been characterized by his awkward dance with his former club. And it's not like the Yankees have been coy about their interest in a reunion. With the way the depth charts currently shake out at FanGraphs, New York's outlook at second base is a massive hole. The baseball match is as obvious so of course the problem is money -- and some other factors that need to unfold.
First, will Springer sign with Toronto? If not, then LeMahieu may be the next target for an increasingly anxious Toronto front office, which may put him out of the Yankees' price range. New York has options in that it can simply bump Gleyber Torres over and target a shortstop, where the free-agent pool is deeper. It's high drama. If LeMahieu doesn't return to New York, there are a slew of contenders with whom he fits, at least on the field if not on the payroll. That list includes the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox, Athletics, Mets and Braves.
Prediction: Yankees. It's just hard to imagine that they won't come to an accord. The only reason you might even try to conjure that vision is that a deal hasn't happened already. -- Doolittle
More hitters we're watching
Marcell Ozuna: There has been surprisingly little buzz on Ozuna, even though he had the third-highest wOBA in 2020 behind only Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman. Ozuna is kind of caught in no-man's land, as it's to his advantage to wait and see if the National League adopts the designated hitter in order to get more teams potentially involved in his bidding. On the other hand, if that ruling comes weeks down the road -- or not at all -- teams may eventually spend their money on somebody else.
A return to the Braves still makes sense, given his importance to the lineup. And while he did spend more time at DH than left field in 2020, the idea that he's a "DH only" has been overstated. He's passable in left field. The Braves are about $48 million below their 2020 payroll, so there might be room in the budget, plus they have significant salaries coming off the books after 2021 (although some of that will have to go to Freeman, eligible for free agency after the season). The Astros are another possible fit if they're willing to play him in left field (Yordan Alvarez is locked in at DH), but with half the American League in "rebuilding" mode or small-market clubs like the Rays and A's, Ozuna really needs the NL side of things to open up for him.
Prediction: Astros. The Astros need an outfielder and a bat to replace Springer (and Michael Brantley) and have money to spend. They can live with Ozuna's defense -- he was actually plus-1 defensive run saved in 2019 with the Cardinals -- and while they whiffed on signing Liam Hendriks or Blake Treinen, that leaves more cash to spend on Ozuna. -- David Schoenfield
Nelson Cruz: Some of the above also applies to Cruz, except he is strictly a DH. Cruz entered the offseason reportedly seeking a two-year deal in coming off back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards and top-10 MVP finishes and most expected him to return to the Twins. However, LaVelle E. Neal III recently wrote in the Star Tribune that there has been little back-and-forth between the two sides and that Cruz was waiting for the decision on the DH in the NL. That suggests a return to Minnesota is hardly a guarantee and imagine what he could add to say, the Dodgers' lineup.
Prediction: Twins. For now, we have to eliminate the NL teams. Most of the AL contenders/big spenders are set at DH: The Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton, the Red Sox have J.D. Martinez, the Rays/A's/Indians aren't going to spend the money, the White Sox have options (especially if 2019 first-round pick Andrew Vaughn is ready), the Angels still have Albert Pujols and Shohei Ohtani, the Blue Jays want to add a center fielder, not a DH. So, by default, this sends Cruz back to the Twins. -- Schoenfield
Justin Turner: He turned 36 in November, but Turner can still hit -- a 131 OPS+ in 2019 and 135 in 2020, even though his power was down (a .460 slugging percentage, his lowest since joining the Dodgers). He's fine at third base, but like Ozuna and Cruz his best position these days might be "hitter," especially given that keeping him off the field may help keep him healthy for the batter's box.
The Dodgers are still the favorite and sit $28 million below last year's payroll (although just $12 million under the luxury tax). They also have options for third base: Edwin Rios, who slugged eight home runs in just 76 at-bats in 2020 and 35 between Triple-A and the majors in 2019, plus longtime utility man Chris Taylor. Again, Turner makes more sense if the DH is instituted. The Blue Jays (28th in the majors in OPS at third base) and Nationals (29th) are two teams that might upgrade at third base, and the Braves might be wise to see if they can steal Turner away from the Dodgers.
Prediction: Dodgers. This is far from a lock, especially if the Dodgers think Rios can handle the position defensively. Turner is reportedly seeking a longer-term deal but it doesn't seem like the Dodgers will go past two years, which could push Turner to another team. The Dodgers are the odds-on favorite, but don't be shocked if Turner is playing elsewhere in 2021. -- Schoenfield
Jackie Bradley Jr.: Bradley had his best season at the plate since 2016, but given it was just 55 games, it's hard to read too much into it, especially since his actual wOBA (.347) outpaced his expected wOBA (.299). But you're not signing him for his bat, you're signing him for his plus defense in center field. The Mets remain a good fit as they continue upgrade their up-the-middle defense and given the Blue Jays' interest in George Springer, Bradley feels like a solid plan B there. The Cubs and Phillies reportedly had interest in him at one point and don't rule out a return to the Red Sox.
Prediction: Phillies. If Springer goes to the Jays, the Phillies and Mets are the most logical landing spot. The Mets don't need Bradley, as they do have the capable Brandon Nimmo, while the Phillies have more fourth-outfielder types in Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn and Mickey Moniak. -- Schoenfield
Editor's note: This story originally published before Semien joined the Blue Jays. Here is what we predicted on Jan. 15:
Marcus Semien: He's one of the toughest free agents to evaluate, third in the MVP voting in 2019 in a career year, but coming off a .223/.305/.374 line in 2020 with worse defensive metrics. It's worth noting that he was still worth 4.7 bWAR in 2018, when he hit .255/.318/.388, but that was also his best defensive year and now that he's entering his age-30 season, his defense may start slipping. That's one reason some teams were reportedly looking at him at second base or third base.
While the Francisco Lindor trade clears one domino in the shortstop shuffle, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons and Freddy Galvis remain free agents. The A's and Reds are two teams with obvious holes at shortstop, but also small-market teams (although if the market drops, a return to Oakland seems feasible). The Phillies are a possibility, depending on whether they think Scott Kingery can handle the position on a full-time basis. Throw the Blue Jays in the mix here as well, although that would probably mean moving Semien off shortstop. The Cardinals fit, with some combination of Semien, Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong in the infield.
Prediction: Blue Jays. Springer is going to the Blue Jays, but why stop there? Let's see if those rumors about the Jays' aggressiveness come true. Semien may have to choose between playing shortstop and taking less money or getting more money with a move to third base, but this would be a fun lineup:
CF Springer
2B Cavan Biggio
SS Bo Bichette
RF Teoscar Hernandez
DH Rowdy Tellez
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
3B Semien
C Danny Jansen/Reese McGuire
A little right-handed, but the lineup is deep, you have Randal Grichuk as a spare outfielder and lots of versatility in the infield if needed with Semien and Biggio. -- Schoenfield
More pitchers we're watching
James Paxton: If Paxton can stay healthy, which is a big if, he can still be a worthy addition for a contending team. He's already thrown for scouts this winter after making only five starts for the Yankees in 2020 due to a flexor strain in his forearm. It wasn't that long ago (2018) Paxton led the American League in complete games and then followed that up with a solid 2019 campaign where he gave up just 138 hits in 150 innings pitched.
One executive deemed Paxton a perfect fit for a team that needs depth but isn't necessarily reliant on him to carry the load like he did earlier in his career with the Mariners.
Prediction: Toronto. Paxton remains in the AL East, where Toronto could use his experience and needs depth ... or he returns to his old team, the Yankees. -- Jesse Rogers
Masahiro Tanaka: If there is one free-agent pitcher who is synonymous with his old team, it's Tanaka. He's a Yankee. And the guess here is he will be again, unless he goes back to Japan as some recent reports have suggested is a possibility.
Tanaka's very best days may be behind him, but this is a time when just being able to eat innings is needed more than ever. He made 10 starts in the shortened season last year and no less than 27 in any of the previous four seasons.
It seems like Tanaka has been around forever but he's only 32 years old. And with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation, Tanaka fits in nicely behind him as a guy with tons of experience. Some reports suggest Tanaka won't play anywhere but for the Yankees, which obviously gives the team some leverage.
Prediction: Yankees. Tanaka returns to the Yankees on a one-year deal. -- Rogers
Jake Odorizzi: One executive -- obviously not interested in Odorizzi -- forgot he was even on the open market. That might sum up the 30-year-old best: He's a fly-under-the-radar kind of guy. His stats never jump off the page, but they also show a consistent pitcher, except for when injuries sidelined him in 2020.
Odorizzi is only one year removed from a solid 2019 season when he compiled a respectable 3.51 ERA over 30 starts for the Twins.
Prediction: Red Sox. Odorizzi has already been tied to the Red Sox. Chaim Bloom was in the front office in Tampa Bay when Odorizzi pitched for the Rays, and Boston clearly needs starting pitching. He's also a potential fit with the Angels, who have their own rotation issues to address. -- Rogers
Trevor Rosenthal: Not long ago it looked like Rosenthal's career might be spiraling to an end. His 2019 season can be summed up with one stat: In 15 big league innings for two teams he walked 26 batters. But after starting the 2020 season with the Kansas City Royals, Rosenthal found his form enough to warrant a midseason trade to the contending Padres. After that, he was lights out, pitching 10 scoreless innings and walking only one batter for San Diego.
A fix in his delivery after being reunited with Mike Matheny, who managed him with the Cardinals, helped erase some bad habits that were formed after a return from surgery, so there's reason to believe the uptick in performance should continue going forward.
Prediction: Padres. Rosenthal could be a strong part of their bullpen plans in 2021 after they saw the best of him last season, and San Diego hasn't been afraid to get who it wants this offseason. -- Rogers
Editor's note: This story originally published before Richards joined the Red Sox. Here is what we predicted on Jan. 15:
Garrett Richards: After years of elbow problems, Richards finally had Tommy John surgery in 2018 and has been climbing the ladder back to respectability ever since. He made three starts for the Padres in 2019 and 10 more last season. But he probably fits best for a non-contender that can give him the opportunity to find his game as a starter. There's always the possibility the right-hander ends up in the bullpen for the latter part of his career. Either way, Richards could be a good flip-at-the-deadline candidate if his first half goes well.
Prediction: Tigers. There are a number of teams who fit the profile for Richards, including the Tigers and Mariners. Look for him to sign a one-year deal on a rebuilding team. -- Rogers