The New York Yankees finally crossed off the top item on their to-do list, agreeing with second baseman DJ LeMahieu on a six-year, $90 million contract. The deal keeps the 2020 batting champion in the Bronx through 2026, his age-32 though age-37 seasons.
Here are some thoughts on the signing and what might be next for the Yankees:
LeMahieu is kind of both overrated and underrated. Much of the discussion during the offseason has been how the Yankees have to sign LeMahieu, like he's one of the greatest Yankees of all time. I never bought into that because the Yankees had options in play, as they could have slid Gleyber Torres to second base and signed one of the shortstops on the free-agent market (Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius). Even if that would have been a one-year fix, all the other other shortstops that hit free agency next season (Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez) mean there are other ways they could have found the long-term solution.
On the other hand, LeMahieu has been a terrific player in his two seasons with the Yankees, and the average fan may not realize just how good. He ranks seventh among position players in Baseball-Reference WAR and 12th in FanGraphs WAR. He finished fourth in the 2019 AL MVP voting and third in 2020 after hitting .364/.421/.590 to lead the American League in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS this past season. He's a good defender at second base with the flexibility to play third and first, like he did in both 2019 and 2020.
In the end, the money is close to what the experts projected, at least in total dollar amount. ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel had predicted a four-year, $88 million contract, so the AAV (annual average value) is lower at just $15 million -- good for the Yankees, who get to spread the money out over six seasons, thus decreasing the luxury tax hit (which is calculated using the AAV of the contract) to give them a little more wiggle room.
Yes, the Yankees take on the risk of an older player at the end of the contract, but I think LeMahieu will age pretty well. Getting away from Coors Field has actually been a huge advantage for him. While with the Rockies, he hit just .267 on the road; since joining the Yankees, he's hit .315 on the road (while improving his home numbers as well). Some swing changes he started incorporating in his final season in Colorado have helped (he was an extreme opposite-field hitter without much lift), and having access to the Yankees analytics department has been a big factor as well. His swing is tailor-made for the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Remember, even though he was a singles-hitting second baseman with the Rockies, this is a big guy (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) with very good exit velocities. The athleticism that has allowed him to win three Gold Gloves means his defense should hold up at second base, but he also has the bat now to slide to third or first later in the contract if needed.
Indeed, I wouldn't necessarily rule out the Yankees playing in that shortstop market next year. There are legitimate concerns about Gleyber Torres' defense at shortstop, and many believe second base is his best long-term position. The Yankees are certainly committed to another season of Torres at shortstop, when they will get a firm answer on his defense. If they don't like what they see, maybe Torres becomes trade bait for pitching help and they pursue one of the better defensive shortstops available.
In the end, while there were reports that LeMahieu had been frustrated with the negotiations, the Yankees don't let their free agents leave if they want to bring them back. If another team had come in at five years for $100 million or 4/80, maybe LeMahieu does go somewhere else.
OK, so what's next? The Yankees are still about $20 million below the tax threshold and a whopping $76 million below what last year's payroll would have been. The Yankees were under the tax in 2018 but were over the past two seasons, so the tax penalty starts getting more severe (a 50% tax on the overage). They also don't have any significant subtractions from the payroll after 2021 except Adam Ottavino ($8.85 million in 2021), plus players like Torres, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit and Gio Urshela would continue to get increases in arbitration.
In other words, if the Yankees do want to remain below the luxury tax, this is the season to do it -- except the CBA with the union expires after this season, so teams don't know what the tax levels and rules will be for 2022 and beyond. Bottom line: It seems like there is room to do some stuff here -- maybe a lot of room for a team that hasn't been to the World Series since 2009.
That means addressing the pitching staff, especially in the rotation. The rotation options line up up as Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia, Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Severino, when he returns from Tommy John surgery.
Masahiro Tanaka remains in play. Earlier in the offseason, Tanaka did not rule out a possible return to Japan to play for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, his original team, or the Yomiuri Giants during an appearance on Japanese radio, although he followed that up with a tweet saying he wasn't limiting what teams he would consider -- in the U.S. or Japan. Tanaka's ERA has been a little all over the place through the years. Since 2016: 3.07, 4.74, 3.75, 4.45 and 3.56 in 10 starts in 2020. He's homer-prone, but he had also been a very good postseason pitcher prior to 2020 (when he allowed 11 runs in eight innings over two starts).
Buster Olney tweeted that Corey Kluber's negotiations could go quickly after a successful throwing session in front of scouts earlier this week. The last time Kluber was healthy, in 2018, he went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting. His injuries in 2019 were not arm-related (although his velocity was down early that season), and the muscle tear in the back of his right shoulder in 2020 didn't require surgery. He's far from a sure thing, but there would seem to be some upside here that makes him a reasonable gamble for a contending team like the Yankees.
After that, the free-agent market thins out. The Yankees have already gone down the James Paxton road and will probably go in another direction. Jake Odorizzi had an excellent 2019 but pitched just 13 innings in 2020 due to a back strain, missing time after getting hit by a line drive and dealing with a blister problem. He hasn't had any arm problems, though, and should get a multiyear deal based on his 2019 performance.
The Yankees are known for their bullpen, but the group's ERA in 2020 was 4.51 -- just 17th in the majors. They're strong from the left side with Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton, but Chad Green hasn't been quite as dominant the past two seasons as he was in 2017 and 2018 (granted, one three-homer outing in 2020 affected his overall numbers). Ottavino's issues against lefties (.458 OBP in 2020, .361 in 2019) has led to Aaron Boone's hesitancy to use him in big moments. So they'll probably look to add another right-handed reliever -- Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates (coming off an injury), Mark Melancon, Brandon Workman, Keone Kela and Shane Greene are the top names still out there.
Finally, we get to catcher. Is it still Gary Sanchez's job? Or will New York top the LeMahieu signing with J.T. Realmuto? Did we mention the Yankees haven't been to a World Series since 2009? Yankees fans, how would you like this lineup?
2B DJ LeMahieu
RF Aaron Judge
1B Luke Voit
DH Giancarlo Stanton
C J.T. Realmuto
SS Gleyber Torres
CF Aaron Hicks
3B Gio Urshela
LF Clint Frazier