Yu Darvish is gone and many predict the next player the Chicago Cubs will trade is catcher Willson Contreras, even though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer denied a report that the Cubs were extensively shopping Contreras, calling it "fiction."
"I think he's one of the top handful of catchers in baseball," Hoyer said during a video call following the Darvish trade. "We control him for two more years. I think that catching is a strength of this team as a result of having him on the roster."
Despite the strong denial, ESPN's Jesse Rogers tweeted that the Cubs have indeed talked with teams about Contreras:
Hoyer says a 'report' from yesterday that Willson Contreras is being shopped is 'fictional'
Could be splitting hairs/words because the Cubs have talked with teams about him a lot, not just now but in the recent past. But nothing is imminent.
- Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) December 30, 2020
In trading Darvish, the Cubs clearly sent the message that 2021 is a reload, restart or retool, depending on your preferred description. While Hoyer indicated the Cubs aren't going to go down the same road they did back in 2011 and 2012, when they tore everything down -- "That would be foolish," he said -- as Buster Olney wrote on Sunday, "Every team knows the Cubs are motivated sellers this winter." The problem is third baseman Kris Bryant is all but untradeable because of his bad 2020 and projected $19 million salary. Outfielder Jason Heyward is still under contract for three more seasons at more than $20 million per year. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks is now the staff ace and signed to a reasonable contract through 2024 so it doesn't make sense to trade him. Shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are free agents after 2021, but the Cubs would like to re-sign both players. That leaves Contreras, who is under team control for two more seasons and projects to make about $5.5 million in 2021, as the player who has some real trade value the Cubs might deal.
We'll get to trade possibilities in a moment, but let's take a quick look at how the Cubs got to this point. There is an air of disappointment over what has happened to the Cubs over the past four seasons, after winning that glorious World Series title in 2016. That feels a little unfair given those four seasons include two division titles, three playoff appearances and a trip to the National League Championship Series in 2017. It is also true that predictions of a dynasty failed to materialize, as instead the Dodgers became the dominant power in the NL.
In rebuilding the Cubs, Theo Epstein and Hoyer focused on position players -- determining, in particular, that drafting pitchers in the first round was riskier than drafting hitters. They would then fill in the pitching staff with trades and free agents. That strategy worked. The 2016 Cubs featured a young core of hitters with Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Baez, Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Ian Happ, none of them older than 26. The pitching staff, however, was one of the oldest in the league. Look at the average age of the position players and pitchers, adjusted for playing time, via Baseball-Reference.com:
Position players
2016: 27.4
2017: 27.1
2018: 27.2
2019: 27.7
2020: 27.9
Pitchers
2016: 29.9
2017: 30.8
2018: 30.2
2019: 31.3
2020: 30.3
While the Cubs had the third-youngest lineup in the NL in 2016, they had the second-oldest pitching staff -- a group that, until 2020, got only older. The Cubs easily led the league in fewest runs allowed in 2016, but that was a dream season for the pitchers. With help from a tremendous defense, the Cubs allowed a .255 batting average on balls in play (one of just three teams in the past decade to allow a BABIP under .265, and the other two came in the shortened 2020 season). Look at the individual performances of the rotation that season:
Hendricks: 16-8, 2.13 ERA. He's been very good with a 3.27 ERA since 2017, but he allowed a .207 batting average in 2016. It's been between .240 and .249 the other six seasons of his career (a remarkable consistency).
Jon Lester: 19-5, 2.44 ERA. He had the best season of his career and did go 44-24 the next three seasons before finally hitting the wall in 2020, and the Cubs exercised their $10 million buyout for 2021.
Jake Arrieta: 18-8, 3.10 ERA. He was already in decline from his 2015 Cy Young season and would spend just one more year in a Cubs uniform. His ERAs since 2015: 1.77, 3.10, 3.53, 3.96, 4.64, 5.08.
John Lackey: 11-8, 3.35 ERA. He was 37 and pitched one more season before retiring.
Jason Hammel: 15-10, 3.83 ERA. He left as a free agent and pitched two more seasons.
Not only was the rotation good, but it was healthy as all five starters made at least 29 starts. That level of production and health was going to be impossible to replicate. With Hammel gone after 2016 and Arrieta and Lackey gone after 2017, the front office had to spend all its resources on pitching -- as planned, since it expected that young offensive core to remain among the best in the league. So the Cubs traded Eloy Jimenez for Jose Quintana, but he didn't put up the numbers Arrieta did during his peak. They signed Darvish to a lucrative deal in 2018, but he was bad for a season and a half and now he's in San Diego. They traded for Cole Hamels and signed Tyler Chatwood. Overall, the rotation remained effective, but not at its dominant 2016 peak. The rotation's yearly ranking in FanGraphs WAR:
2016: 16.2 (second)
2017: 12.4 (10th)
2018: 10.2 (16th)
2019: 15.7 (eighth)
2020: 6.0 (seventh)
Epstein also spend a lot resources on the bullpen, with mixed results:
2017: Traded for Wade Davis, signed Koji Uehara and Brian Duensing
2018: Signed Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek and Drew Smyly; traded for Justin Wilson, Brandon Kintzler and Jesse Chavez
2019: Signed Craig Kimbrel, Brad Brach
The 2019 bullpen included Kimbrel ($10 million), Morrow ($9 million), Cishek ($6.5 million), Pedro Strop ($6.25 million), Kintzler ($5 million) and Brach ($1.65 million), among others -- $38.3 million for just that group of veteran relievers. The bullpen finished eighth in the majors in ERA ... but 22nd in win probability added.
Meanwhile, the young core of hitters never got better, but the biggest problem on offense -- up to 2020, at least, when Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Schwarber all had bad seasons -- was that the complementary players were nowhere near as valuable as in 2016. All the resources spent on pitching meant the offensive depth suffered. The 2016 Cubs featured Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist, who combined for 7.4 WAR. David Ross had a good season as the backup catcher and even guys like Chris Coghlan and Tommy La Stella were productive in limited roles. Fowler left as a free agent after 2016, Ross retired and Zobrist aged (he had a good 2018, but a bad 2017 and didn't play much in 2019).
The farm system, of course, failed to generate replacements. Look at the best homegrown player the past four years who wasn't already on the major league team in 2016:
2020: Nico Hoerner, 0.7
2019: David Bote, 1.6
2018: David Bote, 1.6
2017: Victor Caratini, 0.1 (acquired as minor leaguer, so not even homegrown)
The best the farm has done in four years is produce a couple of utility infielders. Then the pandemic hits, the Cubs win the division in the shortened season, the bats fail once again in the postseason and that gets us to the 2020-21 offseason and back to Contreras as trade bait. That this time has arrived, when the Cubs are not going all-in to win in the short term, is no surprise. Look at what Joe Ricketts, patriarch of the family that owns the Cubs, once said about buying the club:
The Ricketts Plan pic.twitter.com/JRkTAijFbp
- Drew Silva (@drewsilv) December 30, 2020
From a baseball standpoint, taking a step back does make sense, especially since the NL Central is still winnable even without Darvish (it's not as though Zach Davies is a big zero). As Hoyer alluded to on his video call, the Cubs don't fall into the same hole the Phillies, Tigers and Giants did after postseason success by trying to stretch things out and entering years of struggle. The Phillies, after winning 102 games in 2011, have now gone nine seasons without a winning record or playoff appearance. The Tigers have gone six seasons without making the playoffs and have the worst record in the majors over the past four seasons. The Giants have now had four consecutive losing seasons. Those three were also big-market, big-payroll clubs, but the farm systems dried up.
Winning the NL Central without Darvish and Contreras, however, would be much more difficult, especially since backup catcher Caratini -- Darvish's personal catcher -- went to the Padres as well. The low return on Darvish doesn't necessarily means the Cubs would have to settle for a similar return for Contreras, since his salary is much lower. Some possible destinations for Contreras:
Los Angeles Angels: Joe Maddon has a long history with Contreras going back to his time as Cubs manager, but more important, the Angels need a catcher. Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom are the only catchers on the 40-man roster, but Stassi had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip and might miss the start of the season. Bemboom has hit .167 in his limited major league action. The Angels aren't going to trade Jo Adell for two years of Contreras, but the Cubs could try to pry away another outfield prospect such as Brandon Marsh or Jordyn Adams.
New York Yankees: It seems clear the Yankees and Gary Sanchez both need a change of scenery from each other, and maybe Ross would be the perfect manager to help Sanchez rediscover his groove. This trade doesn't save the Cubs any money or service time, however, as both players are under team control for two more seasons, plus Sanchez is projected to make $1 million more in arbitration. But the Cubs could roll the dice on Sanchez and acquire some prospects as well.
Philadelphia Phillies: If J.T. Realmuto's price tag ends up being too high for the Phillies, they could instead look to Contreras. The offensive differences between the two are negligible -- Contreras has hit .262/.355/.490 the past two seasons compared to Realmuto's .273/.333/.492 -- and Contreras' salary is attractive. The Phillies don't have a strong farm system, but maybe Dave Dombrowski's win-now history means he might be willing to include Bryson Stott or Mick Abel, the team's past two first-round picks, in a deal.
Toronto Blue Jays: It certainly seems the Blue Jays want to make a big splash, such as wooing Trevor Bauer or George Springer to Canada. It's also hard to get free agents to come to Toronto, so maybe a trade. The Jays have plenty of catching depth (Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, Alejandro Kirk) to include as well. Depending on the parameters of the deal and since the Blue Jays have a lot of payroll room, maybe they even take on some of Kimbrel's $16 million salary.
Washington Nationals: Yan Gomes is the only veteran catcher on the 40-man roster and he's in the final year of his contract (making $6 million). The Nationals are also one of the favorites to land Realmuto. Like the Phillies, it's not a great system, although the top prospects are all pitchers, which should be attractive to the Cubs. The Cubs would love Jackson Rutledge or Cade Cavalli, probably the top two prospects, as a headliner, but with Max Scherzer a free agent after 2021, the Nationals might want to hold on to the two hard-throwing right-handers.
Houston Astros: Martin Maldonado and Garrett Stubbs are the 40-man catchers, and while Maldonado is a solid defender, the Astros will need some offense if they lose Springer and Michael Brantley in free agency. They have some depth in young pitching on the big league roster, although the farm system is thin at the upper levels (Forrest Whitley notwithstanding, but he hasn't pitched much the past three seasons).
If the Cubs don't get a catcher back in return, they will have to dip into free agency. They have already reportedly expressed interest in Jason Castro, and other free-agent catchers include Wilson Ramos, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Kurt Suzuki and ... Yadier Molina. No, I can't picture Molina in a Cubs uniform either, but these are strange times.
OK, a few quick words on Bryant, since there have been new reports of the Cubs and Mets discussing a trade for the three-time All-Star and 2016 MVP.
The biggest roadblock to a Bryant trade is that projected $19 million salary. Teams will be reluctant to take on the salary AND give up a good prospect or prospects. He also struggled in 2020 (.206/.293/.351) and missed time in 2018, but was good in 2019, when he hit .282/.382/.521 with 31 home runs. The 2019 version of Bryant would be about a three-win upgrade at third base over J.D. Davis and the Mets are still about $29 million under the luxury tax threshold, so there is room there for a deal. The Cubs could sweeten a potential trade by agreeing to pay $5 million or so of Bryant's salary. Here's the Mets' lineup with Bryant in it and no further moves:
CF Brandon Nimmo
SS Francisco Lindor
3B Kris Bryant
RF Michael Conforto
1B Pete Alonso
LF Dominic Smith
2B Jeff McNeil
C James McCann
Other possible trade partners for Bryant:
Los Angeles Dodgers: With Justin Turner a free agent, Bryant could serve as a one-year stopgap at third base.
Washington Nationals: Will they give Carter Kieboom another opportunity or give Juan Soto and Trea Turner more help in an otherwise thin lineup?
Blue Jays: They've been in on several infielders, and Blue Jays third basemen were 28th in the majors in OPS in 2020.
Atlanta Braves: The Braves love those one-year contracts and Bryant could play either third base or left field (depending on where they slot Austin Riley) and replace Marcell Ozuna in the middle of the lineup.
Boston Red Sox: This is probably a bit of a reach, but the Red Sox could move Rafael Devers to first base.
So there are Bryant possibilities out there. Maybe the Francisco Lindor trade will finally start the dominoes falling in this slow hot stove season.