When the New York Mets officially introduced Steve Cohen as the team's new owner back in November, he made it clear this would be a new era in Mets history: "I can promise you we're going to act like a major-market team," he assured. He said all the other right things. That he would let the baseball people make the baseball decisions. That they would invest more in their analytics department and player development staff. Most of all, Mets fans appreciated that they could almost relate to a man with an estimated net worth $14.5 billion because he, like them, is a diehard: He attended his first Mets game in 1963, when the team still played in the old Polo Grounds.
For nearly two months since then, Mets fans waited for that blockbuster move. It finally came Thursday, with the acquisition of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in exchange for infielders Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez and two prospects. Lindor is obviously one of the best all-around players in the game, a two-time Gold Glove winner who is also just one of four shortstops in MLB history with at least three 30-home run seasons. At 27 years old, he's in the prime of his career. This is a franchise player, not just for his ability on the field, but also that famous smile as wide as the Whitestone Bridge and the never-ending engine and enthusiasm. He wins games, sells tickets and brings in television viewers.
Carrasco is an important addition as well, an inspiration after returning from a battle with leukemia that interrupted his 2019 season. He had a 2.91 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 68 innings last season and is under contract for two more years with a 2023 option. He slots in nicely behind Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman in the Mets' rotation -- a rotation that hopes to see the return of Noah Syndergaard from Tommy John surgery in June. "Not only two of the best in the game ... but two of the most humble, down-to-earth human beings on the planet," Stroman tweeted of his new teammates. "Now I get the opportunity to learn/play with two more of the best players in the game ... and add to a squad that's already dangerous. Exciting times!"
Mets fans, having learned a nuanced form of pessimism through the years, were simultaneously overjoyed with the trade, optimistic about the immediate future and cautious about not getting too overjoyed or too optimistic. "LET'S GO METS!" a friend of mine messaged, immediately followed by, "These megadeals always work out for them." (Note the sarcasm.)
Of course, Lindor is under contract for just one season, so the expectation will be that the Mets sign him to a long-term deal, as the Dodgers did last year with Mookie Betts after acquiring him from the Red Sox. Mets president Sandy Alderson didn't rule out that possibility during a video call with reporters on Thursday, but suggested it's way too soon to assume such a deal will happen.
"We've had one conversation with him and no conversations with his agent, so we acquired Francisco because of his present ability and the possibility that he could be a Met long term," Alderson said. "There's no guarantee of that. It's something we will approach in the next few weeks, but at this point we felt comfortable giving up the group of players we did for both Lindor and Carrasco, recognizing that Lindor is only under contract for one year and Carrasco for two plus an option. We gave up a lot of control for short-term control, but I think we're comfortable with that and what we might be able to do going forward."
The takeaway here: With Cohen's money leading to a bigger payroll, signing Lindor to a huge extension is not the wishful thinking it might have been with the Wilpons. Yes, as my friend alluded to, the Mets have been burned in the past with their star acquisitions. Robinson Cano was a bad idea from the get-go. Yoenis Cespedes barely played the past four seasons. David Wright signed a $138 million extension and played just 77 games over the final six years of the contract. Johan Santana made it through three years of a six-year deal.
Lindor, however, is exactly the player you should risk $300 million on, as a multifaceted, athletic shortstop who should age well.
No, I don't think he's quite at the Betts level. In the four seasons before the Dodgers acquired him, Betts averaged 8.3 WAR per season. In the same four seasons from 2016 to 2019, Lindor averaged 5.9. The Dodgers signed Betts to a 12-year, $365 million contract; Lindor would come in well below that. In fact, as Buster Olney pointed out, it might be to Lindor's advantage to sign now, rather than competing for dollars in free agency next winter with fellow shortstops Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez.
Beyond this deal, the Mets might still have room for at least one more ... let's call it significant addition. Their projected payroll is about $29 million under the luxury tax threshold, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts data, and Cohen himself said in November that acting like a big-market team doesn't necessarily mean spending like a drunken sailor. Alderson said Thursday that the tax threshold, while not a hard line, is certainly a significant demarcation.
"I think the market will dictate some of our decisions over the next few weeks," Alderson said. "We feel like we've made a major impact on the team, but we're not perfect, so we will still be active talking in the marketplace. But I do think this moves us forward quite a bit."
Reading the tea leaves there, that seems to mean: If the price drops on a player the Mets want, or the number of years on a contract demand, maybe George Springer or DJ LeMahieu could still land in Queens. General manager Jared Porter stressed that the team is still looking for up-the-middle talent along with pitching to improve the roster depth, and as fun it is to imagine the lineup with Springer or LeMahieu, perhaps a more realistic signing is somebody like Jackie Bradley Jr.
I like Bradley, because even with the addition of Lindor as a defensive anchor, the Mets are arguably below average on defense in center field (Brandon Nimmo), left field (Dominic Smith), first base (Pete Alonso), second base (Jeff McNeil) and definitely at third base (J.D. Davis). Bradley would improve them at three positions: center field, left field (Nimmo over Smith) and first base (Smith over Alonso). If there's no designated hitter, Alonso has to play first, but now you have four outfielders to share time (which is fine, although all four bat left-handed, so it's not optimal for platooning purposes). Kolten Wong would be another option, a Gold Glove second baseman who would allow McNeil to play third and push Davis into a utility role.
Or maybe it will still be Springer or LeMahieu (the Carrasco acquisition probably takes the Mets out of the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes). Either way, Cohen has backed up his promise that he's in this to win. Given the number of teams who don't want to spend heading into the unknown of the 2021 season, or, like Cleveland, are trimming payroll, this is an offseason that favors the bold, with perhaps long-term bargains to be made. The comparable offseason was 1995, coming off the 1994 strike season. Many teams were dumping salary for pennies on the dollar. The Yankees acquired Jack McDowell and John Wetteland before the season and then David Cone in July, ultimately reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1981 and kickstarting their dynasty.
So, be bold, Mets. You've already shown us you're not messing around. This team is ready to challenge the Braves for the National League East title, and the Dodgers, Padres and Braves for best in the NL. Alderson, in reference to an earlier offseason quip about the Mets not being one player away, joked after acquiring Lindor and Carrasco, "Well, we're definitely closer to being one player away."
Make it happen, Steve. One more big move.