The New York Mets have their first official big splash of the 2020-21 offseason, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-handed starter Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland on Thursday in exchange for shortstops Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario and prospects Isaiah Greene, an outfielder, and Josh Wolf, a right-handed starter.
Here's how Tristan H. Cockcroft and Eric Karabell see the trade impacting Lindor, Carrasco and the other players in the deal.
Cockcroft on the Mets
From the Mets' side of things, it's an obvious, huge win. Lindor is one of the best players in baseball, and Carrasco is one of the more underrated, ace-caliber starters as well.
Addressing Lindor first, if you're among the believers that he's a perennial top-15 overall fantasy pick -- and you should be -- then nothing really changes for the star shortstop. Sure, he's coming off a "down" 2020 by his lofty standards, and even by that definition, a No. 97 overall and SS11 Player Rater finish is hardly a "bad" year by any measure, but practically every one of his raw skills remained good: He maintained a high contact rate (9.9% swinging strike rate), paced for 22/16 power/steal numbers over a 162-game schedule and posted a 41.1% Statcast hard-hit rate, which was the best single-season number in any of his six in the majors.
He's also 27 years old, in the prime of his career, so there's every reason to believe he can return at worst the No. 29 overall/SS7 Player Rater numbers he had in the most recent full season of 2019. I had him 15th overall and SS4 in my rankings, and will probably edge him up to about 12-13 overall now.
But two other Lindor-related angles capture more of my attention: First, his impact on their lineup, as the Mets finally have their natural leadoff/No. 2 hitter on an everyday basis (and they could add more high-in-the-order talent via free agency). As is, they had a better-than-league-average .339 wOBA from their top three lineup spots in 2020, after finishing above-average in that category in 2019, but this lineup is a lot better when its .277-wOBA (and .312 if lumping in 2019) Nos. 7-8 hitters are replaced by a .351-career-wOBA, top-of-the-order type.
Expect enough of a runs/RBI boost up and down the order, a plus for Michael Conforto and Pete Alonso especially, with the only real negative that Brandon Nimmo, who led off 41 times last season, might have to settle for a No. 6-7 slot.
Second, and this ties to Carrasco's arrival, but Lindor's installation at shortstop represents a massive defensive upgrade. Putting aside 2020 Defensive Runs Saved, Lindor's metrics, whether 2020 alone or the past three years, were substantially better than the average-to-beneath Gimenez's and especially Rosario's, and that's going to provide a noticeable boost to Mets pitchers.
I think it's enough to warrant as much as a full round (and potentially two in shallow) boost in terms of ranking and $2-3 for their starters, and the first thing I think is, boy, Jacob deGrom is going to have both the best lineup in support of him and strongest defense behind him in years, and he's a guy with a 2.10 ERA since the beginning of 2018. Might he finally win 18-plus?
Carrasco, despite the attention tied to his inclusion in the trade, might yet be the most undervalued starter in the Mets' 2021 rotation. While he has a perceived "injury-risk" label, if you put aside the time he missed in 2019 battling leukemia, he has been remarkably durable, with only one injury list stint of three weeks in 2018 and a total of 74 starts between the 2017, 2018 and 2020 seasons.
Carrasco also brings the low-risk combination of a high ground-ball rate, generally around 45%, and a high-20% strikeout rate. He probably doesn't feel like a top-20 fantasy starter candidate, but absolutely has the skills to get there, and each spot he lasts beyond that group improves his potential value exponentially. Carrasco is now my SP22, 77th overall.
Karabell on Cleveland
Meanwhile, the Cleveland side of this mammoth trade looks quite terrible, especially if one compares it to the Mookie Betts trade, when Boston at least received back the intriguing Alex Verdugo and a top prospect. Then again, that is not our problem in fantasy. Cleveland's problem is trying to get value out of once-promising Rosario in this deal, since he was unplayable in 2020. Rosario hit 15 home runs and stole 19 bases in 2019, his age-23 season, though he was merely league average offensively and far below that defensively. Rosario is certainly capable of returning to his intriguing 2019 numbers in Cleveland.
Still, from a fantasy aspect, neither Rosario nor Andres Gimenez, the younger shortstop that took his job and also heads to Cleveland, seem like players that must end up on rosters in the relatively shallow ESPN standard formats, though Rosario still possesses the greater statistical upside. Gimenez is a superior defender but possesses little pop and only marginally better plate discipline. Gimenez stole eight bases in nine chances in 2020 and he ran in the minor leagues, though to a poor percentage.
Frankly, what interests me the most, since I think we have a good idea of the skill sets of these players, is which positions they play and whether either of them get a chance to hit at the top of a stripped lineup. Jose Ramirez needs help and he did not get it in this trade, but perhaps Rosario and/or Gimenez can reach base enough to warrant not hitting eighth or ninth. Gimenez is the better option to hit ahead of Ramirez and to handle shortstop, really. Either way, Ramirez is likely to see a reduction in RBI chances, and I like Lindor so much -- better now -- that I would take Lindor over Ramirez in the first round now.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has a starting pitcher vacancy and it could signal opportunity for skinny right-hander Triston McKenzie, after he made six starts in 2020 and had little issue with missing bats and preventing runs. This reminds me a bit of my evaluation of new Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Luis Patino in comparison to outgoing San Diego Padres lefty Blake Snell, the veteran in that recent trade. In a few years, I can see Patino generating more fantasy/statistical value than the player he was dealt for. Well, Carrasco is 33. McKenzie could be better in a few seasons as well.