Before we declare the National League East a two-team race between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, let us consider the Washington Nationals. You remember them: Won the World Series in 2019, feature the best hitter on the planet in Juan Soto, have a rotation with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and now they've signed Kyle Schwarber to a one-year, $10 million contract after the Chicago Cubs non-tendered him in December.
After earlier acquiring Josh Bell from the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Nationals have acquired two players who combined for 75 home runs in 2019. They have also acquired two players who hit .188 and .226 in 2020. The two hitters are both excellent buy-low opportunities for general manager Mike Rizzo. Both are young enough -- both will be entering their age-28 seasons -- to not read too much into what happened in 2020. Both players hit the ball hard, so it's easy to see why Rizzo would want to take a chance:
Schwarber
Average exit velocity: 95th percentile
Hard-hit rate: 86th percentile
Bell
Average exit velocity: 87th percentile
Hard-hit rate: 69th percentile
Both players suffered from the same problem in 2020, a failure to launch the ball in the air enough. Schwarber's average launch angle dropped from 15.5 degrees to 8.8, Bell's from 12.9 to 5.9. Getting the ball in the air has been an issue for Bell in the past, but not for Schwarber. Bell's strikeout rate also suffered, increasing from 19.2% to 26.5%. Of the two, the underlying metrics and previous history suggest Schwarber is the better bounce-back candidate.
Even if Schwarber and Bell reclaim their 2019 level, however, they are still incomplete players as both are below-average defenders. Schwarber's defensive metrics are mixed bag. He was graded out at minus-3 defensive runs saved in 2019 over 137 games and minus-3 in 2020 in 48 games. You can live with that if he hits. His Statcast measures are more discouraging, ranking him in the fifth percentile in jump rating and second percentile in outs made average. Bell, meanwhile, has never rated well at first base, with minus-37 DRS in his career.
So the Nationals have added two poor defensive players to a poor defensive team. They ranked last in the majors in DRS in 2020 and allowed the third-highest average on balls in play at .317. Maybe that was a one-year anomaly (Victor Robles' metrics, in particular, were way down from 2019), but they ranked 20th in 2019. No matter how you slice, this doesn't look like a good defensive team.
Adding Schwarber was about offense though. The Nationals' lineup, after losing Anthony Rendon, fell from second in the NL in wOBA to seventh despite the outstanding work from Soto (.351/.490/.695) and Trea Turner (.335/.394/.588). Soto and Turner hit 25 of the team's 66 home runs (a total that ranked 21st in the majors and well below Atlanta's 103). So they needed power. If you look each player's best season from 2019 or 2020, the Nationals' lineup now looks like this:
SS Turner (S): 157 OPS+
LF Schwarber (L): 122 OPS+
RF Soto (L): 212 OPS+
1B Bell (S): 142 OPS+
2B Starlin Castro (R): 97 OPS+
CF Robles (R): 90 OPS+
C Yan Gomes (R): 107 OPS+
3B Carter Kieboom (R): 54 OPS+
OK, that still thins out in a hurry after the top four. It feels like the Nationals still need to make at least one more big addition here if they want to compete with the Braves and Mets. J.T. Realmuto is still out there in free agency, so that's a possibility, but another addition could be Kris Bryant to play third base. Bryant's agent is Scott Boras, and Rizzo and the Nationals have a long history with Boras clients -- most notably Scherzer and Strasburg (Soto and Bell as well), although Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper were Boras clients who left as free agents.
Kieboom is only 23 and while he has struggled in his brief time in the majors -- he hit .202 with no home runs in 99 at-bats in 2020 -- you don't necessarily want to give up on him just yet. Maybe Washington can acquire Bryant without having to give up Kieboom, especially if the Nationals are willing to pick up most of the estimated $19 million Bryant will earn in arbitration. Or maybe the Nationals include Kieboom in a deal if the Cubs grant a negotiating window for a long-term contract with Bryant (not that Bryant necessarily wants to sign with the Nationals).
Either way, the Nationals do have some room to spend a little more if they're willing to match their previous payrolls. They're at about $173 million after signing Schwarber, compared to a pre-COVID figure of $196 million in 2020 and $201 million in 2019. Keep in mind as well that this is the final year of Scherzer's deal, which is perhaps even more reason to go all-in for 2021 rather than just make marginal improvements around the edges.
I still like the Braves and Mets better than the Nationals as there remains a lot of uncertainty with some of the key Washington players. Not just Schwarber and Bell, but Strasburg's return, the back of the rotation (Austin Voth, Erick Fedde), the defense and the bullpen depth. Schwarber could pay off, and the big three starters have to perform better than they did in 2020, but it feels like Rizzo's offseason work is far from complete.