With MLB free agency open for business, we're ranking all the players on the open market. These free agents are ranked based on the guaranteed money I expect each player will be offered. I say offered rather than each player's projected contract only because of Trevor Bauer, who I'm betting will get offered more than $50 million, perhaps well more than $50 million guaranteed, but I'm thinking he will opt for a one-year deal. I'm sure some other players will make decisions of this sort, but those will be more random and market-driven (hence harder to project now) and much lower-stakes decisions, such as choosing a one-year, $8 million offer instead of two years, $13 million.
As you'll notice in reading the comments on each player, this market is almost impossible to predict, even more so than most years, and the recent contract options declined by clubs have served to set the market in a way, though I expect it to improve after the holidays. The top of the market (i.e., unique players without substitutions of comparable quality) should be something like what we've come to expect. The bigger-money deals should all happen later in the offseason, so it might be months before we see anything constituting market-setting deals rather than settling primarily for cheap one-year deals. There are also some new additions from the non-tenders in early December, adding to the free-agent pool and bringing our list past 100 players.
1. J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 5 years, $110 million
Realmuto is at the top of the market and could be impacted the most by the as-yet-unknown market forces, depending on how owners project revenues and attendance for 2021 and beyond and how they manage the associated risks. The standard for a free-agent catcher contract was set last winter when Yasmani Grandal got $73 million ($18.3M AAV) for four years while about one and a half years older than Realmuto and with a comparable recent track record. Five years on merit makes sense for Realmuto, and a $20 million AAV would seem like a reasonable spot for earnest negotiations to begin. The free-agent catcher records are five years, $82 million guaranteed money (Russell Martin in 2015) and Grandal's $18.3M AAV. I'd expect Realmuto's camp not to settle for anything short of topping those marks, but it's hard to say right now by how much since a number of clubs don't have set 2021 payrolls yet.
2. George Springer, OF, Astros
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 4 years, $108 million
The WAR leaderboard for 2019-20 is headlined by Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger, with Springer sitting ninth, half a win behind Bellinger. (Realmuto is 14th, a win behind Springer.) Springer likely can't get a five-year deal due to his age, but he has steadily answered the questions from earlier in his career about swing-and-miss tendencies. He can play a decent center field but fits best in a corner, and he probably can't be counted on to play 150 games a year for the life of this contract. Still, he is elite by any standard and has 63 games of strong playoff performance to his credit. I'd look for the Springer camp to aim for the top multiyear AAV in the class (a one-year Trevor Bauer deal would likely top Springer's), so they might wait until after Realmuto signs to get a benchmark to shoot for.
3. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Yankees
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 4 years, $88 million
Re-signed with Yankees: 6 years, $90 million
LeMahieu is 32, and that hurts his case for a multiyear deal a bit. That being said, there's a plethora of pluses that will outweigh that and slide him ahead of comparable players who are younger. LeMahieu has elite contact skills and plate discipline to go with plus overall defensive value, plus makeup and a combination of size, raw power and exit velocities that hasn't been fully tapped into, even though he obviously doesn't need to change his game. This wide base of well-aging skills, along with his success in a pressure-filled Yankees environment, makes him one of the safer bets for a multiyear deal on the market.
One comp of note is Ben Zobrist, who got four years, $56 million ($14.0M AAV) when he was entering his age-35 season five offseasons ago. LeMahieu is going into his age-32 season. Here's how they did in their two seasons before free agency: Zobrist: 1,189 PA, 7.7 WAR. LeMahieu: 871 PA, 7.9 WAR. On merit, LeMahieu is worthy of five years, and given that he should have a wide base of interest, I think he'll get at least four. Like the other big-money free agents, I think he'll have to wait a bit for clubs to get a feel for what payroll they have to spend and gauge interest around the league.
4. Trevor Bauer, SP, Reds
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $31 million
Bauer is a tough one to peg because he might feel as if his best option with a depressed overall market is to defer the multiyear payday and take a big one-year deal. My rankings are based on how much guaranteed money I think each player can get, and Bauer might legitimately leave a lot of money on the table for a different strategic choice. The Angels have money and desperately need pitching, and Bauer is from Southern California. How much would the Halos offer Bauer on a one-year deal? $30 million? More? Would state income tax then become a real factor in a team such as Texas, Arizona or Florida pulling ahead?
What if a four-year deal for $100 million is the best multiyear offer Bauer can get but he thinks he can make $30-plus million a year by going year to year until the market rebounds? The risk clubs see in long-term pitching is due to regression or injury, and clubs discount the AAV for pitchers more so than for position players, so if Bauer thinks he'll be healthier and more consistent than the average eight-figure pitcher, he'd be best served by maximizing his AAV with one-year deals, particularly if he's the best pitcher on the market and there are multiple desperate teams bidding. It's too early to get a feel for those market forces, but I'd expect either one year or four-plus years as Bauer's contractual outcome this winter. And his salary will probably end with a string of numbers that he finds funny.
5. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Braves
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $60 million
Ozuna's defensive ability has regressed from roughly average in center field in 2015 to essentially DH-only in 2020. If there's a universal DH, then he's a younger version of Nelson Cruz who should cash in, maybe to the level of Edwin Encarnacion (three years, $60 million entering his age-34 season in 2017), even with the league's revenue shortfalls. It appears that the universal DH will be a chip in the next CBA talks and thus will be only in the AL for 2021, then likely in both leagues in 2022. That would drastically reduce Ozuna's appeal this offseason and classify him as more of a luxury item.
He was a nice buy-low option for 2020 with a 51-point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA (he was incredibly unlucky in 2019), but he had positive regression in 2020, with 20 points of wOBA luck. That combined with a loud postseason and still being only 30 should land Ozuna offers of at least a two-year deal at a qualifying offer-level AAV ($18.9 million), although Ozuna is not eligible for a qualifying offer since he got one last year. He could have to settle for another one-year deal and wait on the universal DH next offseason, but he'll be 31 in 2022, and the possibility of regression would make him risky, especially when he likely won't be in the top 10 of next winter's bonanza of a class. I expect Ozuna to try to maximize his guaranteed money, and I think multiple AL clubs in need of some thump will offer him at least $40 million. Ozuna is probably also the first player where a down market could really affect his offers; not having draft pick compensation attached to him will help.
6. Marcus Semien, SS, A's
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $54 million
Semien's outrageously good 2019 (7.6 WAR!) looked as if it could launch him into a stratosphere just below the crazy shortstop class of next winter (Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez). Semien would likely never crack that group because his size, raw tools and pedigree (along with his age) aren't up to snuff with that elite crew, even if his 2019 WAR was. His 2020 season (1.2 WAR in 236 PA) was in line with the rest of his career, with his ability to make contact and baserunning his clearly above-average skills. His hard-contact figures were so bad this year that clubs will have to do some digging to see how much bounce-back they expect.
With the down 2020 performance, the sport's revenue crisis, middling raw tools and a bonkers free-agent shortstop class looming, Semien might be the free agent most harmed in this year's class. There's a decent shot that a one-year deal could be the best long-term earnings option in a vacuum, but joining next winter's free-agent class might neuter the value in that strategy, so I'd look for a bias to maximizing guaranteed money. Semien is a steady 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player whom a savvy club will find solid value in for two or three years. There's also a boost that he won't have draft pick compensation tied to him since Oakland didn't make a qualifying offer.
7. Marcus Stroman, SP, Mets
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $51 million
Re-signed with Mets: Accepted $18.9 million qualifying offer
Stroman is the youngest of the top-tier free agents, but even so, as a ground ball, bulk-inning pitcher, he isn't quite dynamic enough in a down market to get a five-year deal. He opted out of the 2020 season, so his excellent 2019 (3.9 WAR, 3.22 ERA, 184⅓ IP) will stand as his platform year. He's reliable and consistent enough to get $18 million to $19 million per season on a multiyear deal, and he feels like a slightly better bet than fellow free agents Masahiro Tanaka and Kevin Gausman, but clearly slots behind Bauer. A notable comp for Stroman is Mike Leake, who got five years, $80 million ($16.0M AAV) entering his age-28 season in 2016 with a comparable track record but a bit more durability. In a market similar to last winter's, I would look for four years and at least $60 million for Stroman, as Hyun-Jin Ryu got four years, $80 million going into his age-33 season with more upside but also real durability questions. All things considered, a range of $40 million to $60 million for two or three years seems likely for Stroman in this year's market. He received a qualifying offer, so assuming he turns it down, he'll carry draft pick compensation, which could hurt his market at this price point; that's not really a factor at the price Realmuto, Springer and LeMahieu will command.
8. Kevin Gausman, SP, Giants
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $48 million
Re-signed with Giants: Accepted $18.9 million qualifying offer
Gausman pitched 5½ seasons for the Orioles after they picked him fourth overall out of LSU in 2012. He never quite broke through as his pedigree suggested, pitching more as a solid No. 4 starter who showed flashes of a No. 3 starter for short stretches. In 2018, he was traded to Atlanta at the deadline and made 26 starts for Atlanta over two seasons, displaying more league-average, innings-eater type of stuff than that of a standout starter. Atlanta cut bait, putting Gausman on waivers late in 2019, and Cincinnati picked him up, paying about $2.8 million to see him in 14 relief appearances and one start. His velocity was up a tick and his numbers were better in short stints, but that was all the Reds got to see before the Giants signed him to a one-year deal for $9 million for 2020.
Gausman's velo this year as a starter was up more than a full tick from his days with the Braves, and he threw his fastball less often. He basically took the velo and peripherals from his relief stint with the Reds and applied them to a starting role, finally hitting his potential in the shortened season. He throws his fastball or splitter 93% of the time, and the whiff rates on both pitches went up notably in 2020, with the main differences being that his four-seamer was thrown a little higher in the zone and the splitter a little lower and below the zone. The premium draft pedigree makes it easier to buy into Gausman's breakthrough, but some are skeptical long term about a pitcher who rarely throws a breaking ball. In a more robust market, a mid-rotation type of pitcher around age 30 would automatically get four years at about $15 million per, but the shorter track record of success and a down market make me lean toward a solid three-year deal for Gausman at about the qualifying offer in terms of AAV. I rounded down a bit on the projection given that draft pick compensation will be tied to Gausman since the Giants made a QO.
9. Liam Hendriks, RP, A's
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 3 years, $42 million
Signed with White Sox: 3 years, $54 million
Who led MLB in reliever WAR in 2019 and 2020? It was Hendriks at 5.2, with the next-closest reliever at 3.2 WAR (Nick Anderson). Hendriks has been blowing away hitters and relievers, and has stayed under the national radar while playing for Oakland and having been somewhat of an ordinary reliever until 2019. His velo jumped two ticks in 2019 from 94.4 to 96.5 mph but, counter to current trends, he throws his heater 70% of the time. Like Anderson, Hendriks throws a high-spin, up-in-the-zone, "rising" fastball that leads to awesome fly balls and homers, but lots of whiffs and popups as well. He's basically peak Zack Britton, but instead of sinkers down in the zone, he relies on a riding fastball up in the zone.
Hendriks is 32 and doesn't have an especially long track record or pedigree, but all relievers are unpredictable and this guy shoves. If the market is just, Hendriks will get three, maybe even four years at an eight-figure AAV for a contender looking for a relief ace. I think Hendriks (the best reliever on the market) is good enough to get two or three years regardless of how depressed spending is, as there aren't really direct replacements of this quality. (Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, Brad Hand, Alex Colome & Co. would be cheaper options.)
10. Nelson Cruz, DH, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 40
Projected contract: 2 years, $40 million
Teams don't like to bet on players over 30 or bat-only players in free agency, and Cruz is now a 40-year-old DH. The good news is that every team can appreciate what he does in the batter's box. By wRC+ (an all-encompassing hitting statistic) in 2019 and '20, Cruz was the second-best hitter in baseball (163 wRC+, or 63% better than league average, after park adjustments), behind only Mike Trout (175). One of the top few bats in baseball, despite his age, will spark a bidding war, and Cruz would be a great consolation prize for the team that loses out in the Ozuna sweepstakes. He seems almost certain to get two-year offers, and a $15M AAV is where talks should start.
11. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $36 million
Tanaka is just a hair behind Stroman and Gausman due to age and its associated risks, but he has been a dependable 150-inning, above-league-average starter for years. We're now down into the area of the market where there are plenty of replacements for most of these players. It could be tough this winter being the fourth-choice starting pitcher when there are only a few teams that might be willing to pay traditional retail prices for above-average players and those spots are reserved for younger, more dynamic players. That means Tanaka could settle for a one-year deal and hope next winter is more forgiving.
12. Justin Turner, 3B, Dodgers
2021 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: 2 years, $27 million
Turner is most remembered now for his post-World Series exploits, but he has been wildly productive offensively, the ninth-best hitter (min. 3,000 PA) in baseball since 2014 with a 141 wRC+. Turner has been a 3- to 5-win player for that whole span, and his offensive luck has actually been bad the past few years. This would probably warrant a three-year deal in a normal market, but probably two years this winter, unless he takes a hometown discount.
13. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million
Sugano is behind only Trevor Bauer and Masahiro Tanaka among the top starting pitchers still on the market. Sugano is due to be posted soon, so he isn't quite available yet but is expected to be; that process takes 30 days, and Sugano can negotiate with all 30 clubs. Up to $25 million in guarantees is taxed at 20%, with the fee going to the player's Japanese club, then 17.5% up to $50 million and 15% after that.
Sugano is a reliable fourth (give or take) starter, so think bulk innings with an ERA around 4.00. His deal would probably be three years (and $30-something million) in a normal year (and still could be, as the top of the starting pitching market has been stronger than expected), but I'm hedging a bit, projecting two years. With the uncertainty inherent in a player with no MLB experience and leverage to return to Japan, there are higher odds of significant performance bonuses, creative options, opt-outs of arbitration, guaranteed post-contract free agency and other unusual contractual terms that make guessing guaranteed money trickier. At these terms, the club that signs Sugano would pay $4.8 million to the Yomiuri Giants on top of $24 million to Sugano.
14. James McCann, C, White Sox
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $21 million
Signed with Mets: 4 years, $40.6 million
McCann had been a negative-value framer every year of his big league career, but then he was notably above-average this year. In 2019, he had an offensive turnaround that made him the fifth-best catcher by WAR in 2019-20. He figures to be a 2-win type backup plan for Realmuto suitors.
15. Tommy La Stella, UTIL, A's
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million
In the same way that LeMahieu figures to have a wide base of interest to help his market be more robust than some might expect, I'd look for that at a lower price point for La Stella. There are elite contact skills and plate discipline with a track record of hitting here, but very limited defensive value that ideally fits at first base or DH, though it's easier to hide a second baseman these days with shifting.
16. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Korea
2021 Opening Day age: 25
Projected contract: 5 years, $20 million
Kim put up crazy numbers in the KBO (basically between Double-A and Triple-A for a domestic comparison) in his early 20s and can play a solid shortstop. Getting the rest of his 20s for a reasonable figure is a unique free-agent opportunity for rebuilding teams that normally spend only on relievers they can trade at the next deadline for prospects. For the numbers crowd, he's a low-end starting shortstop due to the performance; and for the scouting crowd, he's a little more like a nice-to-have utility piece who might not have an above-average carrying tool in the big leagues.
In this situation, interested clubs would want to sign Kim to a six-year deal to get all of his controlled years before he's entitled to free agency, but a bidding war would get that to a lower number with a clause allowing him to get to free agency quicker, along with a shot to opt into arbitration if he thinks he'll make more there in Years 4-6 rather than the guaranteed money. The guarantee past a third year is more for Kim to have security if he becomes a non-tender (basically if he's a stone-cold backup) rather than to collect it if he's playing well. I'll guess there's enough competition for him that he can get $20 million in less than a six-year deal.
17. Trevor May, RP, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $16 million
Signed with Mets: 2 years, $15.5 million
May's velocity has consistently risen, from 91.9 mph in 2014 to 96.4 mph in 2020, with a full-time switch to the bullpen in 2016 and Tommy John surgery in 2017. He's a strong fit for the later innings as a reliable setup guy who would probably get three years in a normal market. May is comparable to but probably a better player than Braves RHP Chris Martin, who got two years for $14 million last winter going into his age-33 season.
18. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Padres
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million
Rosenthal was an elite reliever from 2013 to 2017, then he missed 2018 with Tommy John surgery and was awful in 2019 before getting right back to where he left off in 2020 with the Royals and then the Padres. I was surprised to see he's still just 30 because it seems as if he has been around forever. It's a little worrisome to just assume he's back like nothing changed, but such is the risk you take trying to find elite relievers. Elite relievers are important and scarce enough that Rosenthal should still get multiple years, but he's probably a three-year deal at a $10-plus million AAV in a normal year.
19. Charlie Morton, SP, Rays
2021 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 1 years, $12 million
Signed with Braves: 1 year, $15 million
Before it became clear via the Kolten Wong and Hand option decisions that Morton's market was going to be very depressed early, it seemed as if even the shoestring-budget Rays would pick up his $15 million option if he chose to keep playing in 2021. They opted for the no-buyout/decline option, and Morton is likely to get a comparable one-year deal with a club looking for a short-term commitment to land a third starter.
20. James Paxton, SP, Yankees
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $12 million
Like Morton, Paxton offers clubs a shot to land a No. 2 or No. 3 starter on a one-year deal that any club can afford. Paxton has had durability issues most of his career, but he still pitched between 120 and 160 innings four seasons in a row until just 20⅓ innings this year, in his last controlled year before free agency. There are legitimate medical issues to look into with his velocity down three ticks in his 2020 outings due to a flexor strain in his elbow that he never returned from. Now he'll look for a soft landing spot and should be able to choose between a number of comparable offers for a team with the best shot to keep him healthy, maybe even improve his game, and offering the best incentives.
21. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $11 million
Odorizzi had a chest injury and blister that limited him to just four starts in 2020, playing on the $17.8 million qualifying offer. James Paxton and Garrett Richards are in the same boat, maybe in the two-year contract range with more upside and variance, while Odorizzi is a better bet to provide 150 quality innings. I've got them grouped near each other because whether a team is looking for variance or safety will dictate which pitcher it prefers.
22. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, Red Sox
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $11 million
Bradley made $11 million in his last year of arbitration because he couldn't continue his 2015-16 offensive performances, but he was still above-average defensively in center field. He got back to that level of offensive performance in 217 PA this year, but the underlying numbers suggest that's a mirage and he's still the same guy he was in 2017-19. He's a solid 2-win player who should get one or two years at $8-12 million AAV.
23. Garrett Richards, SP/RP, Padres
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Richards bounced back from injury to someplace reasonably close to his old form and would probably be in line for two years at $8-12 million AAV in a normal year. (I know I'm getting sick of pointing this out as much as you are of reading it.) He makes more sense than most players forced to sign for one year to go that route, since he could vault to another level with 150 healthy innings in a contract year in 2021. He hasn't cracked 80 innings since 2015, but he was on track to get over 100 innings in 2020 in a 162-game season.
24. Brad Hand, RP, Indians
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 years, $10 million
Hand's declined option ($10 million vs. a $1 million buyout) was even more surprising than Wong's, but Hand also has some clear negatives that are driving his value down in recent years. His velocity is down two ticks in two seasons, from 93.6 to 91.4 mph, and his xFIP has also regressed from 2.97 to 3.41 to 3.83. He's still a strikeout lefty with a long track record, and the Braves gave a 30-year-old lefty reliever (Will Smith) three years and $40 million. Smith was a better player than Hand is now, but they aren't wildly different. Execs are telling me Hand is even more likely than Wong to get his options terms offered to him again this winter, but I'd probably project two years for Hand if he were a free agent like Rosenthal/May without an option to give us a sense of his market. Hand cleared waivers, so all 30 teams passed at this figure; it's unclear whether that's true about Wong.
25. Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
It was surprising and a sign of things to come when Wong and Hand had their affordable one-year club options declined last week. Wong's was for $12.5 million (with a $1 million buyout the Cardinals have paid) and he has basically been a 3-win player for the past three seasons when the dollar-per-WAR on the free-agent market is around $9-10 million per win. Wong is now 30 and his expected offensive numbers were down in 2020, but he's an elite defender and every-day player with a track record. Second basemen also typically get underpaid relative to other positions for various reasons, so I'd expect Wong to get something close to those option terms once the market shakes out and clubs get more certainty around 2021 league revenues, thus raising payrolls a bit. Think of the buyout as a cheap way for the Cardinals to buy time, with an expectation they'll basically end up paying out the option (or close to it) in some way.
26. Michael Brantley, OF, Astros
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Brantley has been a 3-win-caliber player for the past four seasons, though he played only 11 games in 2016, played 90 in 2017 and had a shortened 2020 like everyone else. He signed for two years and $30 million two winters ago due to some durability concerns that ended up not being an issue with Houston in terms of playing time, but he was playing through injuries and DHing a good bit. Since 2014 (min. 3,000 PA), Brantley is the 19th-best hitter in baseball (131 wRC+), but he's getting close to being DH-only and his 2020 line had tons of luck baked in along with a spiking strikeout rate. I'd expect a one-year deal due to the negative markers.
27. Kohei Arihara, SP
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $10 million
Arihara is less reliable and consistent than Sugano but also projects as a back-end starter in a much more crowded market of the $5 million-or-so-per-year area. Posted players are more likely to draw multiyear deals (and creative contract add-ons), even if their talent level is more one-year type in this market, in part to lure them to come to the States. At these terms, the club that signs Arihara would pay an additional $2 million to the Nippon-Ham Fighters.
28. Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $9 million
Gregorius, like Bradley and Brantley, had a nice offensive bounce-back 2020 by all surface indications, but the more predictive StatCast figures like xwOBA and exit velocities suggest he's still the exact same player as 2019. Last winter he signed for one year and $14 million in one of the best markets in recent memory. He's comparable offensively to Bradley but is less of a defensive player.
29. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
2021 Opening Day age: 38
Projected contract: 1 year, $9 million
Some players like Molina, Brett Gardner and Justin Turner would seem to have different salary demands to return to their longtime clubs versus what they'll ask for on the open market, so projecting a contract is tricky. Molina has said he wants two years, but I'm guessing one is all any club will offer.
30. Jurickson Profar, UTIL, Padres
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 1 year, $8.5 million
Profar hasn't quite reached the upside promised in his top prospect days and has moved down the positional spectrum to be a primary left fielder (where he's pretty good) and fill-in infielder (where he's not). He's still young and just had one-third of a career year in the shortened 2020 season, with above-average offense and matching underlying metrics, but he hasn't been consistent enough to land a two-year deal in a down market.
31. Taijuan Walker, SP, Mariners
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 1 years, $8.5 million
Walker has elite pedigree and is still just 28 years old, but unlike Gausman, he just still hasn't quite put it all together to reach his ceiling. Tommy John surgery almost cost him all of 2018 and 2019, but he was back to being a durable back-end starter for Toronto and Seattle this year. If a club really believes he can turn the corner, it'll try to attach a club option to a one-year deal.
32. Kyle Schwarber, LF
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Schwarber was the second-biggest surprise non-tender for me behind David Dahl but the only real surprise among the higher-dollar candidates. I think he'll get all of his projected roughly $8 million arb figure, and a universal DH in 2021 would help his case further. I suspect he didn't get put on waivers like Eddie Rosario because the Cubs would like to bring him back if things come together. His case is hurt a bit by a down 2020, but about half of the downturn in performance was poor ball-in-play luck.
33. Eddie Rosario, LF
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Rosario is a solid bet for 25-30 homers and something close to average left-field defense, which is a solid everyday player. His projected arb number was close to $10 million, which is on the high end of what I'd think his free-agent value would be, around what I've projected for similar free-agent outfielders like Michael Brantley and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Rosario, Schwarber, Brad Hand and Kolten Wong should all land in the $8-11 million range, right around their declined options/projected arb awards, just like Charlie Morton did at a $15 million price point.
34. Robbie Grossman, OF, A's
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Grossman has made progress defensively in the past two years to where he's above average in a corner outfield spot, and he has settled in as a roughly league-average hitter, though he hit into some good luck in 2020 that makes him look even better than that. Grossman is a low-end starter and should be the fallback option for clubs that choose not to spend on George Springer.
35. Mike Minor, SP, Rangers
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Signed with Royals: Two years, $18 million
For the past two seasons and change, Minor has been a durable innings-eating, league-average starter. Given his age and the market, that's worth a one-year deal, although it might have landed him two years in more typical times.
36. Blake Treinen, RP, Dodgers
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Treinen posted one of the best relief seasons in recent memory in 2018, then was legitimately bad in 2019, followed by a bounce-back 2020 with the Dodgers. A ground-ball-oriented righty reliever on the wrong side of 30 isn't the most in-demand type of pitcher, but he's solid setup-guy material.
37. Alex Colome, RP, White Sox
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Colome is a name-brand closer, but he'll be 32 in a few months and his strikeout rate dipped for the second consecutive year (9.5 to 8.1 to 6.5 K/9). On the bright side, he's now inducing an above-average rate of ground balls, switching it up to throw 72% cutters (mostly down and away to righties) and 28% fastballs -- and literally nothing else. He has consistently beaten his expected numbers while pitching this unusual way, for reasons I can't articulate, but maybe teams know why and maybe that's a skill. There's some long-term worry about velocity when throwing tons of cutters, but teams won't care for a one-year deal.
38. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Yates was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2019, then was shut down six outings into 2020 for elbow surgery to remove bone chips. He should be healthy for Opening Day, but he'll be 34 and had Tommy John surgery over a dozen years ago. I'd envision one year with an option and/or incentives.
39. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Indians
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $7.5 million
Hernandez is quietly above average at running, defense and making contact, but his talent is probably in the 2-win band and he's a second baseman without much versatility. Wong's option sets the second-base market (which is already artificially lower than the shortstop or third-base markets) and makes Hernandez the secondary option.
40. Brad Miller, 2B, Cardinals
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $7 million
After bouncing around waivers, Miller broke through offensively in 2019 and kept it up in 2020. He fits best at second base but is passable at most positions. Since he's left-handed, he works as a platoon partner for any right-handed-hitting infielder, particularly for low-payroll teams.
41. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 years, $7 million
Simmons has regressed a lot defensively from clearly the best shortstop in baseball to now about average. His offense has always been his weak point, and the underlying stats show decline there as well. He's a low-end to fringe starter at this point.
42. Drew Smyly, SP/RP, Giants
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $7 million
Signed with Braves: 1 year, $11 million
Over seven appearances in 2020, Smyly put up incredible numbers (14.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9) that were not in line with his stats in recent years because his velocity spiked (91.2 in 2019, 93.8 in 2020) and he started throwing his curveball more. He's also on the wrong side of 30; it's unclear whether he can do this for 150 innings; and he has had notable injury issues in the past, but there's enough here that some clubs might think he can stay near this ceiling. He's a higher-variance alternative to Mike Minor.
43. Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $6.5 million
Signed with Royals: 2 years, $17 million
Cleveland declined a $17.5 million option on Santana after a down 2020 when he hit into quite a bit of bad luck. Veteran first basemen struggle to get more than one-year deals in free agency, so any club with an opening should take a look at Santana.
44. Corey Kluber, SP, Rangers
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million
Kluber was one of the best pitchers in baseball as recently as 2018, but he threw only 36⅔ innings the past two years and only one inning this year (shoulder strain). The Rangers turned down an $18 million option, and Kluber likely will have to settle for a one-year deal with incentives and/or a club option and hope to bounce back.
45. Mike Leake, SP, Diamondbacks
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $6 million
Arizona declined its half of Leake's $18 million mutual option after he opted out of playing in the 2020 season. He averaged 88.4 mph in 2019 and is throwing a lot of cutters, as would be expected from a pitchability back-of-the-rotation veteran. Leake has been incredibly durable his whole career, topping 175 innings the past eight seasons.
46. Ken Giles, RP, Blue Jays
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $6 million
Giles had Tommy John surgery last month, so he's a candidate for a two-year deal to cover his rehab time and his first full year after surgery. Clubs would be willing to take that gamble after Giles was one of the better relievers in the league in 2019.
47. Haruki Nishikawa, OF
2021 Opening Day Age: 28
Projected contract: 2 years, $6 million
Nishikawa is a speedy, contact-oriented center field type who slots in behind Jackie Bradley Jr., roughly in the Kevin Pillar area, but he is younger and has more upside given the uncertainty of how his skills will translate. Nishikawa's lack of power puts him behind Shogo Akiyama, who got three years, $21 million from Cincinnati as a 31-year-old last winter. There's a 20% fee due to be paid to Nippon-Ham ($1.2 million by my projected terms) in the NPB of Nishikawa's ultimate contract.
48. Robbie Ray, SP, Blue Jays
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $5.5 million
Re-signed with Blue Jays: 1 year, $8 million
A knockout starter with power stuff and strikeouts from the left side regressed in his walk year with a spike in walks. Ray is a higher-variance reclamation project for a club confident in its pitching development, likely with a deal that includes incentives and/or a club option.
49. Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 1 year, $5.5 million
Pederson is average to a bit below average defensively in a corner and about average offensively, even though the numbers show he was unlucky at the plate this year. He swings real hard and can be frustrating to watch. He'll be a starter for a bad team or a platoon/rotation player for a good team.
50. Tyler Chatwood, SP/RP, Cubs
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $5.5 million
The first year of Chatwood's three-year, $38 million deal with the Cubs in 2018 was a disaster (more walks than strikeouts over 103⅔ innings), but he got back on track in 2019 mostly out of the bullpen and in 2020 over five starts. He has elite fastball and curveball spin rates and draws whiffs, so any club could use him as a versatile multiple-role arm. Expect 60-120 lower-leverage innings with 4.00 or so ERA.
51. Jose Quintana, SP, Cubs
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $5.5 million
Quintana fared well with the White Sox as a bit of a high-wire act while sitting in the low-90s and posting mid-3 ERAs for 200 or so innings. He was more low-4 ERAs in his first couple of seasons with the Cubs, then threw only 10 innings this year due to a couple of minor injuries. He's now an older pitchability lefty with a pretty mediocre recent track record and minor durability concerns for the first time.
52. Chris Archer, SP, Pirates
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $5.5 million
Archer should be ready for the start of 2021, but thoracic outlet syndrome procedures aren't always a sure thing, so clubs can't really sign him counting on 30-plus starts. Archer's contract will likely have incentives and/or an option so a team can have a good shot at getting its share of quality performance.
53. Tommy Kahnle, RP, Yankees
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $5.5 million
Kahnle was outrighted last week and opted for free agency because he was due to make just under $3 million next year while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, then would have become a free agent. The Yankees will undoubtedly try to bring him back on a two-year deal, but lots of teams would like to have Kahnle's upside for 2022 as he performed at closer level in 2017 and 2019.
54. Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees
2021 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Gardner continues to come back to the Yankees for slightly below-market deals, and I imagine he'll do it again.
55. Brett Anderson, SP, Brewers
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Anderson has had durability issues his whole career, but he threw 176 innings last year and was on pace for about 150 in 2020. He'll post an ERA in the mid-4s, so the upside isn't much for the risk, but the recent track record is good and everyone needs innings-eaters.
56. Justin Wilson, RP, Mets
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Wilson is still effective and sitting in the mid-90s, throwing almost 90% of his pitches above 90 mph.
57. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Tigers
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
A perennial toolsy/free-swinging second baseman for hire, Schoop might be headed to his fifth team in four seasons. He's an above-average defender and decent offensive threat. He got $6.1 million from Detroit for 2020 and should get a little less this winter.
58. Chase Anderson, SP, Blue Jays
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Toronto just declined a $9.5 million option after Anderson had pretty bad outcomes this year with his four-pitch mix. He's probably a mid-4s ERA back-end starter who will eat up innings.
59. Rick Porcello, SP, Mets
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Porcello is a pitchability veteran who can soak up some innings and mentor a team's youngsters.
60. Jake McGee, RP, Dodgers
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
McGee has thrown at least 80% fastballs his whole career but regained his effectiveness this year in 20⅓ innings for the Dodgers in part because his average velo was back up to 95.
61. Kevin Pillar, OF, Rockies
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Pillar's calling card used to be plus speed and acrobatic defense in center field, but he's more of an average defender now. His 2020 offensive spike is mostly a mirage, making him a strong fourth outfielder.
62. J.A. Happ, SP, Yankees
2021 Opening Day age: 38
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
A durable back-end lefty starter whose velo has slipped in recent years.
63. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals
2021 Opening Day age: 39
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Waino works 88-91 mph with a lot of cutters, curveballs and know-how, still posting low-4 ERAs on the verge of age 40. It's pretty incredible that he's still doing this, so I'd imagine he'll get something close to the $5 million he was paid last year to eat innings and mentor the kids.
64. Brandon Workman, RP, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Workman features a cutter/curveball repertoire similar to Mark Melancon's, but with fewer strikes, more whiffs and at a younger age. Coming off of a down 2020 season after a standout 2019, he's a higher-variance reclamation project like Robbie Ray. His contract should include significant incentives and/or a club option.
65. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates
2021 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract: 1 year, $5 million
Kela has been a bit of wild card for most of his career, to say the least. He sits at 95-98 mph and throws an 83 mph curveball, each basically 50% of the time. Kela always racks up strikeouts and is only 27, but consistency and durability have been among his issues; clubs seeking variance/upside in the bullpen will be interested.
66. Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, Dodgers
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $4.5 million
Hernandez had a down year at the plate as part of a two-year decline, but he's about average at second base and all three outfield spots, along with being playable all over the infield. He's a good utility player but has very little chance of being more than that.
67. Jason Castro, C, Padres
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $4.5 million
Castro is the platonic ideal of the solid, unspectacular lefty-hitting catcher who performs well both offensively and defensively in a platoon role.
68. Josh Reddick, OF, Astros
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $4.5 million
In the smallish sample size of 2020, at age 33, Reddick saw his defensive metrics take a nosedive and his offensive indicators drop even more than his surface stats did. There are real signs of decline here, so I'd expect Reddick to be treated like a reserve/platoon option.
69. Adam Duvall, LF
2021 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Duvall's projected arb figure was in the mid-five-million-dollar range and that's probably a little rich for a good right-handed platoon power without much average or defensive value in this winter's market. The universal DH would help, but I think his market is a million or so below his arb value.
70. Martin Perez, SP, Red Sox
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Perez has transitioned to throwing a high-80s cutter as often as his low-90s fastball and isn't quite dynamic enough to be a slam dunk for 32 starts, but he's probably a back-end starter for most teams. He's a pitchability lefty with some guile who had a $6.85 million option declined by the Red Sox.
71. Rich Hill, SP, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 41
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Hill is old, is somewhat fragile and throws curveballs 46% of the time. But it works and he still can be effective for ... maybe 100 innings?
72. Jake Arrieta, SP, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Arrieta seemed destined for regression for a number of reasons after his 7.0 WAR 2015 season with the Cubs, when he posted a 1.77 ERA over 229 innings. His WAR since then? In 2016, 3.5, then 2.5, then he signed with the Phillies, then 1.9 in 2018, 1.1 in 2019, then 0.5 in 2020. He has become a veteran who you hope will give you 150 or so innings with a mid-4s ERA -- and you aren't sure you'll get it.
73. Mark Melancon, RP, Braves
2021 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
A repertoire of 90% cutters and curveballs is producing strikes and ground balls for the veteran setup man.
74. Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Regression hit Gonzalez hard in 2020 at the plate, but he was very unlucky and is still a useful piece. He's a solid average infield defender at multiple spots and can get over a 1.0 WAR in fewer than 500 PA as a versatile switch-hitter.
75. Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Signed with White Sox: 1 year, $7 million
Eaton was the big piece in a trade that landed the White Sox a Cy Young contender in Lucas Giolito. The Nats just declined a $10.5 million option for Eaton, who had an ACL tear in 2017 and eventually returned to his normal self, but his skill set now is more just putting the ball in play with decent tools, but with little punch or patience.
76. Greg Holland, RP, Royals
2021 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Re-signed with Royals: 1 year, $2.75 million plus incentives
Holland's velocity was back up in 2020 to the levels of his previous Royals stint, and he was similarly effective as a result. He was pretty ordinary for 2018-19, so clubs are gambling the last 28 innings are a sign of things to come for the soon-to-be 35-year-old.
77. Yasiel Puig, OF
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Puig didn't play in 2020, though he had agreed to terms with Atlanta in July before testing positive for COVID-19 and eventually sitting out the season. He's playing in the Dominican Winter League to create more of a market since he's currently in a deep part of the market. You can scroll around for the other fifteen outfielders of various types that I project for guaranteed one-year deals for seven figure amounts, some version of a buy low, good platoon guy, or riskier low-end everyday types.
78. Jedd Gyorko, UTIL, Brewers
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Gyorko had a career year at the plate in 2020, and it wasn't at all a result of good luck. The Brewers declined his $4.5 million club option, but I think he'll get close to that as a veteran corner infielder who can also fill in at second base.
79. Jon Lester, SP, Cubs
2021 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Lester is incredibly durable: He has made 31 or more starts every year since 2008. He's now a pitch-to-contact back-end starter at the end of a very strong (but probably not quite Hall of Fame) career.
80. Michael Wacha, SP/RP, Mets
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Signed with Rays: 1 year, $3 million
Wacha is still in his 20s and has the raw parts of what it takes to be a starter, but the results have been bad for two seasons. Most teams think they're savvy with pitching and can fix the broken ones, so Wacha will have plenty of interest.
81. Alex Avila, C, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Avila is a three-true-outcomes hitter with some thump and an OK glove that adds up to a solid lefty backup to pair with a right-handed starting catcher.
82. Roberto Osuna, RP, Astros
2021 Opening Day age: 26
Projected contract: 2 year, $3.5 million
Some teams won't sign Osuna due to his troubling off-field behavior the past few seasons. He pitched only 4⅓ innings in 2020 due to UCL damage in his elbow that he's trying to rehab without surgery. A two-year deal would be the way for a team to plan to get at least one season of full health from the former elite closer.
83. C.J. Cron, 1B, Tigers
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
A knee injury limited Cron in 2020, but he is probably still a fringe starter as a righty-hitting first baseman. That profile isn't in much demand, but it makes sense for rebuilding clubs with some at-bats to hand out.
84. Ryan Braun, 1B-OF, Brewers
2021 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Braun is adequate in the outfield and is still a league-average (or a bit better) bat despite clearly being in decline for years.
85. David Dahl, CF
2021 Opening Day Age: 27
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Signed with Rangers: 1 year, $3 million
The Rockies are currently the most confounding franchise in baseball, and that trend continued at the tender deadline. Dahl was non-tendered with a projected arb figure in the mid-$2 millions, which there's a real chance he can top in free agency as a 27-year-old with everyday upside. At the same time, Colorado tendered two replacement-level players in Elias Diaz ($1.2 million) and Jairo Diaz ($1.1 million) for a comparable amount of money.
86. Jay Bruce, DH, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Bruce was unlucky at the plate this year and can still be a league-average offensive threat who is acceptable at an outfield corner or first base but is really more of a platoon DH/bench bat.
87. Jose Alvarez, RP, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Alvarez is a sinker/slider lefty reliever who has quietly been productive for years, though he threw only 6⅓ innings this year due to injury.
88. Edwin Encarnacion, DH, White Sox
2021 Opening Day age: 38
Projected contract: 1 year, $3.5 million
Encarnacion was awful in 2020 after an incredibly productive 10-year run at the plate. As an older, righty-hitting DH, there is no margin for error, and Encarnacion wasn't unlucky in 2020; he was bad by any measure. Either clubs think he's toast and he'd better be ready to play in the minors, or a couple might think he just had a bad year and buy low.
89. Jake Marisnick, OF, Mets
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Marisnick is a low-contact reserve center fielder with some pop and about average defense.
91. Domingo Santana, OF, Indians
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Santana is still young and has always hit the tar out of the ball, but that comes with a lot of swing-and-miss and year-to-year inconsistency. Cleveland declined a $5 million club option, but he'll probably still find a landing spot for an MLB deal.
92. Travis Shaw, 3B
2021 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
If you round up, Shaw is a fringe regular third baseman that can be platooned, and if you round down, he's a bench bat for the corner spots. I think he'll come in relatively close to his projected arb figure in the high $4 millions.
93. Freddy Galvis, SS, Reds
2021 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
He has regressed to be basically average defensively, and there isn't enough stick to start. Galvis now fits in a traditional utility role.
94. Joe Panik, UTIL, Blue Jays
2021 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Panik is a fine utility infielder, with a contact-oriented bat, solid approach and passable glove that fits best at second base.
95. Archie Bradley, RP
2021 Opening Day Age: 28
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Bradley was acquired from Arizona at the deadline from Arizona and got non-tendered this week by Cincinnati, with a projected arb number around $5 million. His velocity was down a tick in 2020, and he was due to become a free agent after 2021. With incentives included, he should make close to his projected arb figure later this winter.
96 Maikel Franco, 3B
2021 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Franco has a broad base of skills, but his up-and-down performance becomes clearer when looking at his xwOBA, a StatCast figure that strips out luck of a batting line. His rookie year figure was .341, followed by .324, .312, .310, .301 and .296 in 2020, when league average was .321. Even plateauing at that level makes him a bench player at best, but his results were solid in two of the past three years, so there's likely a guaranteed deal for him somewhere, but well below his projected arb figure of at least $5 million.
97. Jonathan Villar, UTIL, Marlins
2021 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Villar was the seventh-worst qualified hitter in baseball in 2020; he was a bit unlucky but still was terrible at the plate. He plays second, short and center field in a utility role and is average at best at all three, so the disappearing power means his value was in baserunning and being passable defensively. He's still 29 and was much better at the plate in 2019, so there probably will be a small guaranteed deal out there, but it wouldn't surprise me if he had to settle for a minor league deal (i.e. non-guaranteed) with a comparable MLB salary to my projection and lots of incentives.
98. Shane Greene, RP, Braves
2021 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Greene has been a durable, 60-plus-innings reliever who has occasionally been of eighth-inning quality, but his strikeout rate (9.7 K/9 in 2017, 6.8 in 2020) and velocity (95.0 in 2017, 92.1 in 2020) have slipped in recent years, making him profile as a middle reliever now.
99. Tyler Clippard, RP, Twins
2021 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Clippard throws 88-90 mph with a majority of changeups/splitters, but it's still working and he has topped his ERA estimators three years in a row. I wouldn't bet a lot on him, but he's still getting popups and strikeouts.
100. Tommy Hunter, RP, Phillies
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Hunter's velo was down in 2020, but he still pitched well, so there would appear to be a little left in the tank.
101. Cole Hamels, SP, Braves
2021 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Hamels made one appearance in 2020, totaling 3⅓ innings after throwing at least 130 innings the other 14 seasons of his career. There's now a real durability question, and depending on how his medicals look, he could end up with a minor league deal with this sort of MLB salary if he makes the team out of camp.
102. Matt Shoemaker, SP, Blue Jays
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Shoemaker might post a sub-4.00 ERA as a starter, but has needed the past four years to accumulate 32 regular-season starts, one full season for a healthy starter. He signed last winter for $4.2 million.
103. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Cubs
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Jeffress' velocity has come down in recent years; he picked up a splitter; and his strikeout rate is down. This adds up to a veteran middle reliever with a little more variance than you'd expect for his age/experience.
104. Pedro Baez, RP, Dodgers
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $4 million
Baez's velo also has come down in recent years, and he's also a perfectly fine veteran middle reliever who's seemingly been very hit-lucky in 2019 and 2020 as his margin for error has lessened.
105. Joakim Soria, RP, A's
2021 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Soria's velo has stayed steady the past few years, but the ground balls have dried up and his strikeouts are coming down as well.
106. Shin-Soo Choo, DH, Rangers
2021 Opening Day age: 38
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Choo is basically a platoon DH/bench bat at this point.
107. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cubs
2021 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Kipnis hit pretty well in 2020, but he was hit-lucky and doesn't really have a position, so this could be a minor league deal with incentives if he makes the club out of camp.
108. Wilson Ramos, C, Mets
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
The Mets declined Ramos' $10 million option. He can still hit well for a catcher, but the defense has regressed, so he's best as the backup in a timeshare to limit his exposure.
109. Aaron Loup, RP, Rays
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Loup is a perfectly fine fastball-slider lefty reliever whose main limitation is not being able to go multiple innings.
110. Tyler Flowers, C, Braves
2021 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Flowers is a strong framer and decent defender who has mistake power, but doesn't make much contact and fits best in a mentor/backup-role timeshare.
111. Mitch Moreland, 1B, Padres
2021 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Moreland would have a bigger market with a universal DH, which isn't a sure thing for 2021 but is likely for 2022. As is, he's a bench bat or platoon DH who just had a $3 million option declined by San Diego. He was hit-lucky in 2020, but still seems worth about that option amount, regardless of the status of the DH in the NL.
112. Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Giants
2021 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
Cahill is a four-pitch starter who can also relieve, but he has been streaky in recent years. He's a nice veteran arm with some upside for a rebuilding club.