While the trade market has brought most of MLB's headlines this offseason, the Chicago White Sox spending big to land closer Liam Hendriks shows free agency could soon heat up as well.
Here's what Jeff Passan is hearing about Chicago handing out a surprisingly large contract, where Fernando Tatis' contract talks really stand, DJ LeMahieu's future -- in New York or elsewhere -- and much more.
1. The stunning $54 million contract the Chicago White Sox agreed to with Hendriks on Monday night marked the largest guarantee to a player this winter and continued perhaps the oddest trend of this very unusual offseason: Those who do get paid are actually doing quite well.
The massive number of free agents still on the market just five weeks before spring training is scheduled to begin remains troublesome and leaves plenty of players wondering when, exactly, the market is going to thaw. And yet from Hendriks to James McCann, Mike Minor to Carlos Santana, Drew Smyly to Robbie Ray, Adam Eaton to Anthony DeSclafani, plenty of those who have signed did so at rates that exceeded expectations.
It only adds confusion to a market in which the top four free agents -- George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer and LeMahieu -- remain available. A number of people around baseball believe that Springer could be the first to sign and that a bonanza deal for him wouldn't be altogether surprising, either.
Hendriks' deal was seen around the industry as a home run, though they agreed that because of its creative structure, the White Sox got what they were looking for, too. In essence, it's a three-year, $39 million contract -- same as Will Smith, a far lesser reliever, received last year -- with a twist: a $15 million payment delivered either in the form of a buyout or a fourth season with the team. Why would the White Sox pay Hendriks the same regardless of whether he pitches that fourth year? Well, they won't exactly. The $15 million will be deferred, saving Chicago a chunk of present-day dollars.
Still, Hendricks can say that going into his age-32 season, after being designated for assignment four times, in the middle of a pandemic, as a relief pitcher in an era where relievers just don't get big deals, he guaranteed himself $54 million. And the White Sox, wary of handing a deal to a reliever for more than three years, technically didn't and in the process bought themselves a chunk of savings should the next three seasons not go as planned.
2. Speaking of the next three seasons, here's who the White Sox have under contract through at least 2023: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn on the offensive side; Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Hendriks, Aaron Bummer, Evan Marshall, Codi Heuer, Garrett Crochet and Matt Foster on the mound. It's a ridiculously talented group.
And it's why when you add those who are under contract this year -- Jose Abreu, Lance Lynn and Adam Eaton -- the White Sox don't just look like the best team in the American League Central. As of today, they're the team to beat in the AL, period.
Who else would it be? The White Sox now have added Hendriks (the best closer in baseball the past two years), Lynn and Eaton to a team that last year played at a 94-win pace. Here are the offseasons thus far of the teams that were as good or better:
Tampa Bay: Traded 2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell and did not pick up the club option on Charlie Morton, their most consistent starter. Non-tendered outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Signed starter Michael Wacha, coming off a season in which he posted a 6.62 ERA, to a $3 million deal. Re-signed catcher Mike Zunino.
Minnesota: Non-tendered left fielder Eddie Rosario and let free agent Matt Wisler walk. Signed reliever Hansel Robles, coming off a season in which he posted a 10.26 ERA, to a $2 million deal.
Oakland: Lost Hendriks and outfielder Robbie Grossman. Could lose shortstop Marcus Semien and second baseman Tommy La Stella. Hasn't signed a major league free agent.
Cleveland: Traded franchise shortstop Francisco Lindor and longtime rotation stalwart Carlos Carrasco. Hasn't signed a major league free agent.
As for the other playoff teams: The New York Yankees still haven't re-signed LeMahieu, the Houston Astros gave Hendriks the hard sell but not enough money, and the Toronto Blue Jays likewise chased Hendriks and whiffed -- and count Ray at $8 million as their lone move of consequence this winter.
There's bound to be a non-playoff team from last year that emerges, but to the level of the White Sox? With all that talent? New manager Tony La Russa is inheriting the greatest sort of team: one built to win now with the safety net of a couple more years in case something goes poorly the first time around.
3. Just gonna get right to the point: The reports that Tatis was on the verge of signing a mega-extension were completely false. The San Diego Padres haven't made an offer yet, let alone one that doesn't even bear repeating because its length makes little sense.
Yes, Padres general manager A.J. Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic, the sort of thing a GM does with his star player when extension talks are expected to take place. Yes, the Padres would love to lock up Tatis ... because of course they would. He's one of the best players in baseball. Yes, Tatis is open to an extension, but not just for the sake of having one.
He doesn't need the money. Tatis' sponsorships in 2020 ballooned, and with his first arbitration season coming before the 2022 season and a $10 million-plus payday likely on the horizon, the notion of Tatis taking some kind of a discount just doesn't square. Not with what's possible. If Tatis maintains MVP-caliber play through free agency, he'll hit the market as a 25-year-old who is perhaps the most recognizable player in baseball, carries himself like a star and is bilingual.
If an owner could create a player, that would be it. And $400 million would be the floor.
4. Today is the 77th day since free agency started that the New York Yankees could sign DJ LeMahieu, and so far they are 0-for-76. The frustration from LeMahieu is nothing new, nor is the possibility that he could sign elsewhere. But he hasn't.
Whatever the fuel behind the Yankees' decision-making, every day that goes by, they're daring LeMahieu to leave. He could take the Toronto Blue Jays' money, which hasn't been very popular even though it spends the same, or go jewelry-chasing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won't pay him what he wants but have a 24-karat gold, diamond-encrusted sales pitch. And every day, their bluff hasn't been called.
The danger for the Yankees comes if, as some expect, Springer signs first -- and it's not with Toronto. For all the intrigue of, say, LeMahieu playing third base for the Atlanta Braves, the Blue Jays have made the most sense fit-wise outside of the Bronx. And if they missed on Lindor and missed on Hendriks and missed on Springer, overpaying for LeMahieu -- while antithetical to how president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins run the organization -- is not out of the realm of possibility.
Granted, there's Bauer and Realmuto, the latter a more suspect fit than the former, and Springer really is Toronto's perfect match, but LeMahieu's leverage only stands to grow as his peers atop the board exit the market and leave him the belle of the ball. The Yankees have gone more than two months with him atop their priority list and no priority treatment offered. Soon enough, someone is bound to budge.
5. With Kyle Schwarber also on the list of those to negotiate a surprisingly high contract -- the $10 million Washington gave him was more than his projected arbitration number -- next in line to sign may be his statistical doppelganger, Joc Pederson. Like, they are creepily similar. Check out their slash lines.
Pederson (career): .230/.336/.470
Schwarber (career): .230/.336/.480
Pederson (2020): .190/.285/.397
Schwarber (2020): .188/.308/.393
Whatever Schwarber's issues last season, the Nationals looked past them. And there is good reason for teams to consider the same with Pederson. His son spent a considerable amount of time in the neonatal intensive care unit during September after a difficult pregnancy for his wife, Kelsey. The stress of that, as anyone who has experienced it can attest, is overwhelming.
When Pederson did return to the Dodgers, he raked. Pederson hit .389/.421/.556 in the NLCS and was even better in the World Series: .400/.500/.700. While at 28 he's a year older than Schwarber, Pederson's glove is manageable in left field, right field, first base and, in a pinch, center field. Even if his reputation isn't the same as Schwarber's, Pederson's numbers -- especially against right-handed pitchers -- should give him a soft landing, particularly if teams' instincts about the return of the designated hitter to the National League prove accurate.