In the end, despite all the grumbling and fussing about the slow offseason, George Springer will get his money. All it took was the biggest contract in Toronto Blue Jays history, a six-year, $150 million deal, according to Jeff Passan, just the second $100 million contract the franchise has handed out.
The Blue Jays have been trying to spend money all offseason, but it's often difficult to lure free agents to Toronto. Kiley McDaniel's free-agent rankings predicted a four-year, $108 million contract for Springer, so he essentially matched that in annual value, just with a couple of more years added on. For the money, the Blue Jays are getting one of the best center fielders in baseball, albeit with some risk involved, as the contract takes Springer from his age-31 to age-36 seasons.
First, Springer brings power -- 39 home runs in just 122 games in 2019 and 14 HRs in 51 games in 2020 -- and positive defensive metrics.
2019-2020: 8.6 WAR, third in MLB
2018-2020: 11.3 WAR, second in MLB
2017-2020: 16.2 WAR, second in MLB
It's Mike Trout and then Springer among center fielders. Springer's additional value includes a high energy level, clubhouse leadership and a history of producing in the postseason -- .269/.349/.546 in 63 postseason games. Since he played well in 2020, he also seemed to avoid the stink that covered Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa after they all struggled in wake of the Astros' cheating scandal. (Although I suspect if those three players were free agents, fans would heartily welcome them, as Blue Jays fans will welcome Springer.)
For the up-and-coming Blue Jays, Springer fills a big need, as they've been looking for a two-way center fielder for several years. In 2016-17, they had superb defense, with Kevin Pillar running everything down, but subpar offense. They received good offense from the spot in 2020 with Randal Grichuk and a few games from Teoscar Hernandez and others, but Grichuk and Hernandez are both best suited for a corner spot -- or maybe DH in Hernandez's case, because despite his speed, he is a lousy outfielder. Toronto's ranking in recent years among all 30 teams at center field in weighted on-base average (wOBA), defensive runs saved (DRS) and overall wins above average (WAA):
2020: 4th in wOBA, 26th in DRS, 22nd in WAA
2019: 14th in wOBA, 24th in DRS, 25th in WAA
2018: 17th in wOBA, 21st in DRS, 12th in WAA
2017: 24th in wOBA, 4th in DRS, 16th in WAA
2016: 25th in wOBA, 1st in DRS, 10th in WAA
The Jays also add another big bat to a lineup that ranked third in the American League in runs and fourth in home runs. Although I'm a little skeptical on the offense, as they hit much better in their home games at Buffalo's Sahlen Field. Springer hit leadoff every game he started since 2017, so let's assume he is comfortable in that spot and the Blue Jays keep him there, giving them a lineup that looks something like this:
CF George Springer
2B Cavan Biggio
SS Bo Bichette
LF Teoscar Hernandez
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B Rowdy Tellez
DH Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RF Randal Grichuk
C Danny Jansen
They don't have a third baseman right now, unless they move the apparently slimmed-down Guerrero back there. Justin Turner is a possibility there, as is Marcus Semien, if he's willing to move from shortstop. They also could move Biggio to third and sign a second baseman such as Kolten Wong or Cesar Hernandez, keeping Guerrero at first base and freeing up Tellez to DH.
My biggest concern about this deal is how long Springer remains in center field. I've written before about 30-something center fielders. It's a young man's position. From 2010 to 2019, look how many major leaguers played 100 games in center:
Age 31: 12 (so an average of 1.2 per season)
Age 32: 6
Age 33: 6
Age 34: 3
Age 35: 0
Chances are, Springer might not remain in center over the life of the contract. His bat still plays in a corner, but the Blue Jays might be looking for a center fielder again in 2023 or 2024. The other concern would be how outfielders, in general, are aging these days. I went back to 2000 and checked the highest WAR totals from ages 31 to 36 among outfielders (regardless of position). The top five were Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield, Ichiro Suzuki, Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa -- and none of those runs came in the past 10 years. In fact, of the top 20, only three began their runs after 2010:
Nelson Cruz, 2012-17: 21.5 WAR
Jose Bautista, 2012-17: 20.1 WAR
Brett Gardner, 2015-20: 19.8 WAR
In other words, don't expect Springer to keep pumping out five-win seasons over the life of the deal.
That means Toronto is trying to win now ... and that's where I'm a little skeptical, even if this signing will have many jumping on the Toronto bandwagon. While acknowledging there are still free agents out there and time to make more transactions, I'm not wild about the rest of Toronto's offseason.
For some reason, the Blue Jays doubled down on starters who can't throw strikes in signing Robbie Ray (6.62 ERA, 7.8 BB/9 in 2020) and Tyler Chatwood (4.70 ERA over three seasons with the Chicago Cubs, 6.4 BB/9). The Blue Jays also have reportedly agreed to a deal with former San Diego Padres closer Kirby Yates, who had surgery in August to remove bone chips from his elbow. Look, those deals could all pay off. Ray still has great stuff, but he remains an enigma after his All-Star season in 2017, and a delivery makeover in 2020 didn't take. Chatwood was OK in 2019, but that came mostly in relief role. Yates might have been the best closer in baseball in 2019 (1.19 ERA, 101 K's in 60⅔ innings). It could work.
Aside from that, the only certainty in the rotation is Hyun-Jin Ryu. Rookie Nate Pearson struggled. Free agent Tanner Roark struggled. Ross Stripling allowed 13 home runs in just 49⅓ innings, but he did have a 3.51 ERA from 2016 to 2019. The Blue Jays have options, but it's an extremely unpredictable group once you get past Ryu.
For that reason, I still have the Blue Jays a distant third behind the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. I do like the Springer signing, and the offense could explode if Guerrero breaks out and Bichette plays a full season. But I suspect they still have a couple of more moves to make.