I write this with great respect for my many friends who are Mets fans: It might be redundant to say they are irrational. It wasn't surprising, then, that within a few weeks of Steve Cohen being installed as the team's new owner, some among the Mets' faithful -- their suffering made possible by years of watching the team seemingly aim to finish second in bidding wars -- began griping about the lack of a big, bold move.
Never mind that the start of spring training is still many weeks away. Never mind that this winter market was painfully slow to begin with. Never mind that the Mets had already distinguished themselves from the inactivity of other teams by executing two relatively aggressive moves, signing catcher James McCann to a four-year, $40.6 million contract and reliever Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5 million deal.
Cohen and the front office finally satiated the Mets fans the other day with the addition of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and respected veteran starter Carlos Carrasco, both of whom aced their Zoom-call entrances into the New York market. Now you can have a legitimate debate about whether the Mets, Braves or Nationals are the best team in the NL East.
So Mets fans have fallen down the leaderboard in apprehension, and now it's fans of other teams who must wait and wait for changes, upgrades, trades, signings. There are would-be contenders who still haven't made the kind of substantive moves that could be difference-making within their divisional context.
Minnesota Twins
There are gaping holes all over the roster -- in the pitching staff, in the outfield, in the infield, up and down the every-day lineup. They cut ties with left fielder Eddie Rosario, and their best hitter and biggest clubhouse leader, Nelson Cruz, remains a free agent. Meanwhile, other AL Central teams have improved. The Tigers hired AJ Hinch as manager and have thrown some coin around on Robbie Grossman and others. The Royals, intent on taking a step forward this year, have signed lefty Mike Minor, first baseman Carlos Santana and reliever Greg Holland. And the White Sox have been the most aggressive AL team to date, landing closer Liam Hendriks, outfielder Adam Eaton and starting pitcher Lance Lynn.
But the Twins have waited -- partly because they can wait, with so many free agents still unsigned, so many veterans available in trade. The longer Minnesota waits, the more clarity there is about pricing; and with greater clarity, the chances of overpaying are diminished. This seems to be a consistent organizational strategy since Derek Falvey took over the Twins' baseball operations.
Whenever the Twins do start to make moves in an effort to reach the postseason for a third consecutive season, they'll probably come in a flurry -- and it does seem as if the return of Cruz might be as inevitable for Minnesota as DJ LeMahieu's reunion with the Yankees.
Philadelphia Phillies
Since Dave Dombrowski took over the team's baseball operations, he has moved to shore up what was a historically bad bullpen, adding possible weapons such as Sam Coonrod from the Giants. But there is so much more work for Dombrowski to do if the Phillies can keep up with the best teams in the hypercompetitive NL East. Philadelphia needs a shortstop, and it could re-sign Didi Gregorius. There is a hole in the rotation. But first and foremost, there is the question of whether the Phillies will re-sign J.T. Realmuto, who is far and away the best catcher in baseball. Philadelphia has extended a nine-figure offer to the catcher.
That very experienced Dombrowski was brought in to deal with all this is fortuitous for the Phillies' ownership because he'll give them clear-eyed advice untethered to past mistakes. Presumably, Dombrowski can say: Given the current state of the franchise, you either need to be willing to spend more money to give the team the best possible chance to keep up with the Braves, Mets and Nationals, or you might as well hit reset on the roster and payroll. If the Phillies are willing to spend, then yes, it would seem inevitable that Realmuto will be brought back, because he's worth more to Philadelphia than to any other team, as a symbol to fans -- and to the club's best player, Bryce Harper -- of the club's direction.
Toronto Blue Jays
They aggressively pursued Lindor and negotiated to some degree with LeMahieu -- and missed out on both players. But as one of the few teams seemingly willing to spend big money, they appear well-positioned to land one of the big names available, given the paucity of free-spending teams this offseason. They have shown interest in outfielder George Springer, who could give them a veteran stabilizer for their lineup. Toronto has also had discussions with Realmuto.
Boston Red Sox
The divisional circumstances are not great for the Red Sox. The Rays have a .589 winning percentage over the past three seasons and played to a Game 6 of the World Series last fall. The Yankees are loaded with offense and, over the course of 162 games, might be the AL's best team. The Blue Jays are on the rise and, if they add Springer, are going to score a lot of runs. Boston has so many pitching challenges, including the question of when -- or if -- Chris Sale can return and be a factor in 2021 after having Tommy John surgery last summer.
But by all accounts, the Red Sox have been active behind the scenes, laying the groundwork for possible deals, examining the efficacy of various combinations; like the Twins, they seem to be waiting for the prices to become fully defined. The lines of communication have been held open to Jackie Bradley Jr., who excels at playing center field in quirky Fenway Park, and Boston has a lot of payroll flexibility. In Chaim Bloom's time with Tampa Bay, the Rays were really good at finding bits and pieces of meaningful value, and it may well be that the Red Sox will bypass high-spending moves but still improve with a flurry of less splashy deals.
News from around the majors
• With the hiring of Kim Ng and Chris Young as team general managers, and the shift of Peter Woodfork to oversight of baseball's minor leagues, there was concern among some of the front offices that central baseball would be starved for team experience to provide perspective about how decisions affected the clubs. The hiring of Theo Epstein in a central baseball role might allay some of those fears. It remains to be seen whether Epstein -- respected by players and teams -- can be in a position to improve the working relationship between the union and MLB, and to help identify badly needed middle ground between the two sides.
• As veteran catcher Alex Avila explained on the podcast the other day, any free agent had to know going into this winter that the market might play out differently from in past offseasons, because of the ripple effects from a shortened schedule without fans in the stands. But if you had to pick one player who is the most affected by the current context, you might choose Marcell Ozuna, the slugger coming off one of the best performance windows in his career, generating a .338/.431/.636 slash line in 60 games for Atlanta last season and finishing sixth in the NL MVP voting -- after betting on himself by taking a one-year deal with the Braves.
But many forces are working against Ozuna. Budgets have been slashed; teams generally don't prioritize sluggers the way they used to; and above all else, a lot of evaluators think that Ozuna's future is at designated hitter. For now, only 15 teams are assured of using a DH in the upcoming season, reducing Ozuna's leverage. If NL teams knew with 100% certainty they would have a DH in '21, Ozuna would be in a better negotiating position.
• With so many teams looking to reduce their payroll for 2021, there simply were not many clubs aggressively pushing Cleveland for Lindor with the All-Star shortstop set to make over $20 million. There are some in the Mets' orbit who believe that they outbid the Yankees for Lindor, which would be worthy of a man-bites-dog headline. But sources say that while the Yankees and Indians talked and Cleveland outlined what it would take to complete a deal, the Yankees never countered with a formal offer. The Yankees continued to focus on re-signing LeMahieu, and of course, they'll have an opportunity to dive into the shortstop market next fall, when Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Corey Seager will all be eligible for free agency.
Within the Cleveland organization, the Blue Jays were viewed as much more aggressive in the bidding for Lindor than the Yankees. Lindor could've played shortstop, with Bo Bichette perhaps sliding to third base.
• Robbie Grossman played for new Tigers manager Hinch in Houston and recently signed a two-year deal with Detroit. When players reunite with a former manager, it's often, in part, because of some coveted intangible. "Grossman's at-bat quality and grinder mentality separates him," Hinch wrote in a text. "As he has matured as a big-leaguer, I've seen him be consistent and methodical in his approach at the plate and defense. He rarely gives at-bats away, values walk-strikeout balance, and took a great step at the plate with power."
"He's never been given anything. I think that style can rub off on our guys as we start talking about winning more."
Noteworthy
Now that the Yankees have spent on LeMahieu and Corey Kluber, they would like to add pitching depth -- maybe a third-tier starter, maybe a reliever -- and they would like to bring back Brett Gardner for his 14th season with the team. But if the Yankees are to remain under the $210 million threshold of the competitive balance tax, they don't have much room. One way they might create some space is exploring a trade of reliever Adam Ottavino, who struggled in the shortened 60-game season. Ottavino, 35, had a 5.89 ERA in 24 appearances in '20 and is set to make $9 million; presumably, with so many right-handed free agents available, the Yankees would have to eat a chunk of Ottavino's salary to make a deal
Given the Braves' payroll structure, they appear highly unlikely to re-sign Ozuna, leaving a gaping need for a right-handed hitter in the middle of their lineup to bat behind Freddie Freeman. It's possible they could move right-handed hitting catcher Travis d'Arnaud to the cleanup spot, after his best season. If their best available outfield options involve left-handed hitters rather than right-handed boppers, they're open to going that route
Because Cody Bellinger had shoulder surgery after the World Series, he hasn't yet had a chance to work on the swing that gave him trouble for a lot of the 60-game season.
Highly touted Giants catching prospect Joey Bart is likely to spend the bulk of the 2021 season in the minors after his 33-game audition in 2020 revealed room for growth
Sometimes you will hear player pronouncements in the middle of a contract negotiation that feel like a bluff, but when Yadier Molina declared the other day that he'll retire if he doesn't get the kind of offer he wants, well, that seems different. Even within an industry that is about competition, Molina's competitive stubbornness and spirit are outliers. For years, Molina declined interview requests from our company after a show set the soundtrack to "Chariots of Fire" underneath a replay of Bengie Molina hitting a triple. Yadier didn't like the idea of someone making fun of his big brother, so the boycott went into effect. Bengie continued to be engaging and funny, as always, but Yadi harbored that anger for years and years before agreeing to sit down with Eduardo Perez. Molina, who is 38, made $20 million annually in recent years, and it remains to be seen whether he and the Cardinals can find a middle ground in their negotiations.