As the countdown to the start of the 2020-21 college basketball season on Nov. 25 continues, ESPN.com's panel of experts is making its predictions for all of the nation's top leagues. After looking at the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, Pac-12, Big East, American Athletic Conference and the nation's top mid-majors, we complete our conference roundup with the ACC, in which Duke and North Carolina always seem to dominate the headlines, but Virginia gets to call itself the defending national champion for another year.
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ACC 2020-21 superlatives
Player of the Year
Medcalf: Garrison Brooks, North Carolina
Borzello: Sam Hauser, Virginia
Gasaway: Garrison Brooks, North Carolina
Lunardi: Sam Hauser, Virginia
Newcomer of the Year
Medcalf: Jalen Johnson, Duke
Borzello: Sam Hauser, Virginia
Gasaway: Scottie Barnes, Florida State
Lunardi: Sam Hauser, Virginia
ACC 2020-21 writer roundtable
With apologies to defending ACC champ Florida State and other top-shelf programs such as Virginia and Louisville, by federal law, the first ACC question annually must be about Duke and North Carolina. Is Duke a true national title contender? Is North Carolina (14-19 last season) going to return to a semblance of Tar Heel normalcy? Please give your impressions of and expectations for Duke and UNC for an interested public.
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: Duke and North Carolina will both compete for the ACC and national crowns, I think. This is one of those wacky seasons in which coaching will matter a lot. Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski haven't coached in a pandemic, but they have seen nearly every imaginable situation in their careers -- that's an advantage. Both need young point guards (Caleb Love at UNC and Jeremy Roach at Duke) to excel early and become leaders at the position to reach their teams' potential, but those PGs will be surrounded by multiple weapons.
I like Duke's chances, however, more than I like UNC's in the national title picture. The Blue Devils have veteran Joey Baker returning, young pieces (Roach, Jalen Johnson) who can make an immediate impact and a pair of sophomores in Wendell Moore Jr. and Matthew Hurt who've been waiting for their chance to lead. But North Carolina is also ready to bounce back from last year's letdown.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: I think both teams will be favored to make the second weekend in March, but I also think they might have a few too many questions to be considered preseason national title contenders. Duke might actually be a bit underrated heading into the season; the Blue Devils are loaded with talent, even if it's not No. 1 pick-type talent. Moore and Hurt are potential breakout candidates, Roach is a tough-minded, winning player, and Johnson is a lottery pick. But I don't know if this squad has the game-changing talent needed for a young team to win a title.
As for North Carolina, you could make the case that its five best players are a point guard and four centers. That generally doesn't make for a winning lineup. I love Love at the point, and Roy Williams will have the best post quartet in the country in Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot, Day'Ron Sharpe and Walker Kessler. But this team needs some scoring on the wing, and I don't know if the Heels will get that consistently.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: Duke is a true national title contender ... if this year's crop of first-year talent produces like Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones did. Statistically, Johnson, Roach, DJ Steward, Mark Williams and their classmates are as elite collectively as the group that arrived in Durham in the fall of 2014 -- with the caveat that this latest bunch of Blue Devil newcomers built its impressive ranking with depth.
As for UNC, its Achilles' heel (har!) in ACC play last season was that the Tar Heels didn't defend terribly well. In particular, they rarely forced turnovers. That's a trait that has some stickiness from year to year, and though Brooks can play for my team any day, I'm not sure this defense is going to perform at a level synonymous with the lofty goal set forth by "Tar Heel normalcy." This season instead projects to be more normal in Chapel Hill, as in "earning an NCAA tournament bid."
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: I expect "traditional" seasons from both Duke and Carolina. The Blue Devils will be excellent in stretches but fall a bit short -- Elite Eight, maybe Final Four -- of a national championship as a 2- or 3- seed. The Tar Heels will be a little further down the seed list -- in the 5 or 6 range -- with a real chance to return to the Sweet 16 after the off-year that was 2020.
As mentioned, FSU is the defending ACC champ. Virginia, we should all be reminded, remains the defending national champion for another year. Which of these teams will provide the bigger storyline in the ACC and nationally?
Borzello: Virginia should be the ACC favorite entering the season and a Final Four contender, so I think the Cavaliers will be the bigger storyline over the course of the season. They were playing some of the best basketball nationally toward the end of last season, and now they're adding Marquette transfer Sam Hauser and a solid recruiting class, including high-level scorer Jabri Abdur-Rahim. If they can guard like a typical Tony Bennett team, the added scoring punch will mean the Cavaliers can compete with anyone.
Florida State always flies under the radar entering the season, though, and I don't think Leonard Hamilton will care. I asked him last October what he thought about being consistently underrated in the preseason. "Of course we will [be better than people think]," he said. "We do this every year ... It won't be anything different." I'd imagine it will be the same thing this season.
Gasaway: If Florida State always flies under the radar, and it does, then Virginia will indeed be the bigger story this season. That's as it should be. Defending a national title is a big deal. Still, it's high time the Seminoles received their proper share of the limelight as well.
I've picked Hamilton's team to finish ahead of the likes of North Carolina and Louisville because FSU was excellent on both sides of the ball last season. Now Hamilton's bringing back M.J. Walker and Anthony Polite and adding Scottie Barnes. Although federal law required that we start this roundtable with Duke and North Carolina, you can make a case that Hamilton and Tony Bennett have done more to add to the overall strength of the ACC than any other two figures.
Medcalf: I think Florida State will show up around late February, per the norm, on the national radar. But Virginia will have all of the attention attached to its success and its attempt to win a second title in three seasons. During the 2018-19 run, Virginia started 16-0 before suffering a two-point road loss to Zion Williamson and Duke. We could be dealing with similarly dominant Duke and Virginia squads prior to the first game between the two teams. I think the buildup to that game will be a captivating national storyline.
Plus, as others mentioned, there's Sam Hauser and Jabri Abdur-Rahim, the son of (how old are we?) Shareef Abdur-Rahim. I also think Kihei Clark is that likable, young point guard who will become a fan favorite this season. We'll be hearing a lot about Virginia this year.
Lunardi: Not only does Virginia get to be the defending champion for an extra year, but the Cavaliers also got their "rebuilding" season out of the way. The Cavs weren't going back to the Final Four without Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome and De'Andre Hunter, but they very well could with Hauser in the fold and meaningful experience added to the stat lines of Clark, Casey Morsell and Jay Huff. Virginia is the best story in the ACC until someone bumps this team off the top rung of the ladder.
Right in the middle of the ACC pack last season were four programs that have Final Four banners hanging from their rafters: Georgia Tech (11-9 in the ACC), NC State (10-10), Syracuse (10-10) and Notre Dame (10-10). Which member of this quartet do you think will be the most interesting to watch (doesn't necessarily mean best) in 2020-21?
Lunardi: I like Syracuse the most from this group. The Orange were coming on at the end of last season, winning four of six down the stretch and obliterating North Carolina in the ACC tournament. This season's a Jim Boeheim type of team, with a little more balance between offense and defense. Plus, maybe we'll have a third member of the family joining Jim and Buddy Boeheim, as Jimmy Boeheim is in the transfer portal with Cornell not playing this season. Regardless, I got my Syracuse "vacation" last year. I expect the Orange to be very much in contention on Selection Sunday.
Borzello: I think Georgia Tech could be an NCAA-tournament-caliber team this season. The Yellow Jackets lose only James Banks from a starting lineup that went 11-9 in league play and finished fifth in the ACC. They have arguably the best and most experienced backcourt in the conference in Jose Alvarado and Michael Devoe, and they bring back Moses Wright down low.
Although they weren't included in the question, I think Miami might have the best team outside of the top five of the conference (Virginia, Duke, UNC, Florida State, Louisville). The Hurricanes return Chris Lykes in the backcourt and bring in freshman Earl Timberlake, who I think will be one of the most impactful newcomers in the country, despite his not being a consensus five-star prospect. He's a physical, tough playmaker who will create matchup nightmares.
Gasaway: First, a hearty "amen" to everything Mr. Borzello said about Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets scored more points than they allowed in ACC play last season for the first time in (goodness) 13 years. The performance trajectory is positive in Atlanta at last. But because Jeff already made that case quite capably, I'll add a note here on Syracuse. Elijah Hughes is gone, but the other four starters are back from a team that went .500 in the ACC in 2019-20. (Marek Dolezaj is my nominee for "Perry Ellis of the ACC" honors. I think Dolezaj played with Scoop Jardine, didn't he?) The Orange should be tough. Get well soon, Coach Boeheim.
Medcalf: It's hard to argue against Georgia Tech or Syracuse, and I think we all expect Notre Dame to have some challenges this season, so let's focus on NC State. Under Kevin Keatts, NC State has never finished higher than fifth in offensive efficiency in league play or higher than eighth in defensive efficiency in league play, per KenPom. But Keatts is aiming for his fourth consecutive 20-win season.
Yes, Markell Johnson and C.J. Bryce are gone, but DJ Funderburk is one of three key seniors who will be joined by youngsters Cam Hayes and Shakeel Moore, who could both crack the starting backcourt. Keatts seems to thrive with change. This year will be a roller coaster -- or a typical year for Keatts and his team, which has finished with a .500 record in league play in back-to-back seasons.
Anonymous coaches size up the ACC
Jeff Borzello spoke to ACC coaches about their expectations for the conference in 2020-21.
-- "I think the talent level top-to-bottom last season wasn't super strong as it pertains to NBA players. The year before, there were 10 guys drafted in the first round. When the all-conference teams aren't made up of lottery-type players, that impacts the way the league is viewed as a whole. But Florida State, Duke and Louisville could have gone to the Final Four. Then there was a fourth team in Virginia. Nobody was impressed with their roster, but because they have a great coach, they won 24-25 games.
"And now Virginia is a top-five team in the country this year with mostly the same roster [and] with Sam Hauser. That's an indicator that people have woken up to the fact [that Tony Bennett is] a really good coach and can win with anyone out there."
-- "Two years ago for Duke, it was Zion, Cam Reddish and RJ Barrett. I don't think it's close in terms of what those freshmen were compared to what they have now. But they have strength in numbers. I think they have a lot of really capable freshmen: [Jalen] Johnson, [DJ] Steward, [Jaemyn] Brakefield. They could all be guys that play minutes for them. I think that will be as much of a determining factor as anything. [Matthew] Hurt will take a step forward, [Wendell] Moore will emerge as a leader and a versatile guy.
"For them to be as good as people have forecasted, they're going to need a guy such as Jalen Johnson, who has lottery pick potential, to really emerge and be a real player. They're going to need Jeremy [Roach] or DJ to be a big-time guard. Their potential is as real as anybody's, but they're going to need at least a couple of those freshmen to prove themselves."
-- "Florida State went four years without making the NCAA tournament, but they're now recruiting at a very high level. And what they've done that's very unique: Leonard [Hamilton] has found a way to play with 11-12 guys. In a day and age where a guy is playing 30 minutes and transferring because he got eight shots instead of 10, he deserves a lot of credit for his ability to figure that part out. That's unique."
-- "I wouldn't put Louisville in the top four, but I'd put them right after that. They lost some men. Chris [Mack] has done a great job, and they inherited some really, really good players: [Jordan] Nwora, [Steven] Enoch, [Dwayne] Sutton, [Ryan] McMahon. They lose some really, really key pieces. I have a lot of respect for Malik Williams. When he first came to Louisville, I thought he was a really good offensive player, but he's morphed into a really good defensive player that picks his spots offensively. [David] Johnson and [Samuell] Williamson will take steps this year. I thought Williamson was going to be one of their better players, but he played inconsistent minutes, struggled with his shot.
"I thought Johnson was really good as the year moved on. I'm interested to see [Radford transfer] Carlik Jones. Louisville does a terrific job finding point guards. I give Chris a lot of credit for that, finding grad transfers -- [Christen] Cunningham and [Lamarr] Kimble. And can they get anything out of those young big guys? [Aidan] Igiehon, [Quinn] Slazinski, they hardly played."
-- "North Carolina is a team that finished last and lost a first-round draft pick. [Garrison] Brooks' numbers might go down because of the guys they brought in. Walker Kessler and [Day'Ron] Sharpe and the other guys up front, along with [Armando] Bacot developing, those four guys up front will all be really tough to deal with and will all be able to impact a game. The big thing -- and Carolina has always played two bigs and hurt teams around the basket -- but what does [Caleb] Love do, what does RJ Davis do? They lost a lot in Cole [Anthony]. The Ant Harrises of the world, they're not at the point [that] you can count on them. Caleb and even RJ, who I think is underrated, those guards have to be ready."
-- "It'll be interesting to see how Alan Griffin takes Elijah Hughes' place at Syracuse. They normally take a step forward when they have some continuity."
-- "Virginia was a weird team. They were so elite defensively. They were at the top of the top defensively, with [Mamadi] Diakite and [Jay] Huff on the backline, [Kihei] Clark really pressuring the ball. They were also one of the worst offensive teams I've ever seen in my life. But toward the end of the year, they got better offensively. They were playing as well as anyone in our league. Playing at a real high, high level. They're going to be different. Huff's coming back, but they should have better offensive players with [Sam] Hauser. But you lose a little with Diakite and [Braxton] Key not being there. They have my utmost respect. Tony always finds a new way to play."
-- "Georgia Tech is sneaky good because of their guard play. You could make the argument [that Jose] Alvarado and [Michael] Devoe are as good a pair of guards as anybody has. That makes for a really good college basketball team. I don't know if that makes them a Sweet 16-caliber team, but it makes them a challenge to play against."
-- "I think Miami is sixth. [Earl] Timberlake is a real player. [Chris] Lykes has played a ton of games and has a chance to be good. Nysier Brooks will help them a lot at the 5, hold down the fort at that position. [Kameron] McGusty is a capable wing player for them. [Harlond] Beverly will take a step from where he was last year. They haven't been very good the last couple years but could take a jump."