As the countdown continues to the start of the 2020-21 college basketball season on Nov. 25, ESPN.com's panel of experts is making its predictions for all of the nation's top leagues. After looking at the Big 12, Pac-12, Big East, American Athletic Conference and the nation's top mid-majors, we move to the SEC, where Kentucky just might have its first Final Four team since 2015, but the rest of the field does not figure to go quietly in 2020-21.
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SEC 2020-21 superlatives
Player of the Year
Medcalf: Keyontae Johnson, Florida
Borzello: Trendon Watford, LSU
Gasaway: Keyontae Johnson, Florida
Lunardi: Keyontae Johnson, Florida
Newcomer of the Year
Medcalf: B.J. Boston, Kentucky
Borzello: B.J. Boston, Kentucky
Gasaway: B.J. Boston, Kentucky
Lunardi: B.J. Boston, Kentucky
SEC 2020-21 writer roundtable
We've performed similar exercises with Villanova and with Kansas during the preseason: To which previous John Calipari group does this Kentucky group most easily compare? What's the Wildcats' ceiling -- national title, Final Four, or "other?"
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: Calipari always tells the same story about a conversation he once had with his friend and Houston coach Kelvin Sampson. "Cal, you have a shot at the national championship every year," Calipari says Sampson told him a few years ago. That's true again this season. I can see the potential disadvantages for Calipari's young team in a weird season that might include disruptions. But if this thing just comes down to "most talented" amid the chaos, well, Kentucky could have an edge. If it all comes together, a Final Four run seems possible.
I think this is like the 2018-19 group that added Stanford's Reid Travis. He was a star and he helped the young Wildcats reach the Elite Eight, where they lost in overtime to Auburn. Travis also gave them leadership. Olivier Sarr (Wake Forest) and Jacob Toppin (Rhode Island) add experience and more talent to this young roster. Still not sure who leads this group, but it's an intriguing collection of talent.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: I think Kentucky should be a tier behind the three national championship favorites at the top of everyone's rankings (that's Gonzaga, Baylor and Villanova, for those wondering). But the Wildcats have as much talent and potential as anyone outside that top group, so I think they're a legitimate Final Four contender heading into the season -- which means they can absolutely win a national title. I'm maybe more bullish on Kentucky than some other people (I have them fifth, AP has them 10th), but I just think the pieces in Lexington are good enough to win the SEC and play in Indianapolis on the final weekend of the season.
It's hard to come up with a team similar to this one. It's a freshman-laden group with only one returnee, but there's also veteran transfers Davion Mintz (Creighton) and Sarr. I think the 2014 team could work, as that was a group that took time to put it together before making a run to the title game. Personnel-wise, 2015-16 is apt. Steady point guard, scorers on the wings, a couple of veterans up front.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: Calipari is hoping against hope that this team resembles the one that made it to the 2017 Elite Eight only to lose in the final seconds when North Carolina's Luke Maye hit a game-winner for the Tar Heels. Obviously UK's coach is also hoping for a better postseason result this time around, but here's what stands out to me about both Kentucky teams. They were and are both young even by Calipari-era standards. Before 2017, I liked to stand on a preseason soap box annually and say, "No team with so little returning experience has made the Final Four in the one-and-done era." While that's still technically correct, I did notice when Bam Adebayo, De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk very nearly rendered that statement a dead letter.
Bringing back two veterans to team with three sensational freshmen -- a la UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015 -- is still the preferred model for winning young, mind you, but maybe B.J. Boston, Sarr & Co. can furnish a new template this season.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: John Calipari loves his team, and that's good enough for me. Calipari is generally pretty honest in his assessments. With none of the three consensus top teams -- Gonzaga, Baylor and Villanova -- falling into what I would consider the "elite" category, there is plenty of room for the Wildcats to make a run at the Final Four (and beyond). There is enough talent internally and enough uncertainty externally for Kentucky to be among the very last teams standing.
Last season we thought Florida could challenge Kentucky at the top of the conference, but the Gators (19-12, 11-7) fell kind of flat. This season it feels as if Tennessee (17-14, 9-9) is the squad most earmarked for the "UK challenger" role. Are you buying the Vols' resurgence, or should we be talking about a different title contender in the SEC?
Borzello: Love the Vols this season. Earlier in the offseason, I was probably higher on Tennessee than most, but it seems everyone is on the bandwagon now. And for good reason. The Volunteers struggled last season, but they bring back four starters, welcome two five-star freshmen and have two impact transfers ready to go. The key for me is going to be freshman Keon Johnson. He wasn't considered an elite-level prospect in high school, but all the buzz coming out of the SEC and nationally is that Johnson is poised to be a one-and-done lottery pick. He's a terrific athlete, an outstanding defender, and has more offensive game than given credit for. If Johnson is that good, the Vols will be Kentucky's biggest challenger in the league.
Gasaway: Am I buying the Vols' resurgence? Yes. Do I think we should be talking about a different title contender? Yes. Not a contradiction! I have Florida and Tennessee at Nos. 1 and 2 ahead of UK. The Gators actually looked worse than flat in bad losses on the road at Missouri and Ole Miss last season, yet somehow this same group came within a few baskets of beating out Kentucky for the title of best per-possession team in SEC play last season. Now Mike White is bringing back Keyontae Johnson, Noah Locke, Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann, among others. As for the Vols, they have even more experience returning, and good things do tend to happen when Rick Barnes has proven veterans in Knoxville.
Lunardi: Yes, I am buying the Vols as a second weekend NCAA team. No, I am not buying Tennessee -- or anyone, for that matter -- as a favorite over Kentucky in the SEC. It's perfectly reasonable to think the Vols or Florida could be better than the Wildcats early in the season, but recent history suggests Kentucky's pro-level talent will ultimately prevail -- provided there is enough of a season for that talent to come together.
Medcalf: Yeah, this is Rick Barnes' forte. He has a balanced squad with veterans such as Yves Pons and a young star in Keon Johnson. I think Kentucky will search for that continuity throughout the season. But the Vols have it now. Santiago Vescovi has to play well for the Vols to contend, but the team made 51% of its shots inside when he was on the floor last season. The depth on this team is what's necessary to compete against a team like Kentucky. They can't match UK's talent pool. But the experience should position Tennessee to compete in the SEC again.
All of that said, I do wonder if we're overlooking Florida. The Gators might have the top two players in the league: Scottie Lewis and Keyontae Johnson. That's Kentucky's greatest threat, I think.
There were four first-year coaches in the league last season -- Nate Oats (Alabama), Eric Musselman (Arkansas), Buzz Williams (Texas A&M) and Jerry Stackhouse (Vanderbilt). Whose program do you see taking the most meaningful leap this season, and why?
Lunardi: I am most bullish on Alabama. What kind of odds could we get on the Crimson Tide making the Final Four in both football and basketball? Throw Ohio State into that parlay and I'm taking the bet. This is a season in which a "down ballot" power conference team (or two...) figures to play in April. When asked to predict the unpredictable, Alabama is as good a long shot as any.
Gasaway: Buy that Alabama stock now. And by that I actually mean something more like, "The Crimson Tide might look about the same as last season, while many of the other teams in this question could take a step back." Oats will have to replace Kira Lewis, but the coach does have Jaden Shackelford, John Petty Jr., Alex Reese and Herbert Jones back for another season. Who knows, Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly might add a lift as well. In fact, Quinerly might feel as if he never left Philadelphia: Alabama shot more 3s than 2s in SEC play last season. If nothing else, the Tide's perimeter-oriented attack should be entertaining.
Medcalf: I think Williams and Stackhouse will need more time to make any leap. And Musselman just lost Mason Jones (22.0 PPG) who willed the Razorbacks to multiple wins last season. That's why I like Alabama and Oats here.
First, John Petty is back for his ninth season -- honestly, it feels as if he has been in Tuscaloosa forever. The Crimson Tide lost two SEC games in overtime last season, and another by a point against Tennessee. They were right there in multiple conference matchups. One player won't replace Kira Lewis, but Oats has a cast of talent that could make up for what was lost. I also think Quinerly gets a fresh start after going from top recruit to struggling at Villanova. That will help too.
Borzello: It's a close call between Oats and Musselman. Both teams fell short of the NCAA tournament last season and both teams should be borderline top-25 teams entering this season. But since Arkansas finished a game below Alabama last season, and I have the Razorbacks one spot ahead of the Crimson Tide in my projected finish, I'll have to go with Musselman and Arkansas.
It might be strange to say Arkansas is going to be better than last season after losing its two best players, Mason Jones and Isaiah Joe, early to the NBA and two other players who started at least 30 games. But this is Musselman's type of team. He rebuilt his rosters every season at Nevada, and it worked just fine. Ten newcomers are expected to get major time, with a top-10 recruiting class joining six eligible transfers. I do think both teams are poised for a big jump, but Arkansas edges it for me.
Anonymous coaches size up the SEC
Jeff Borzello spoke to SEC coaches about their expectations for the conference in 2020-21.
"The transfer from Wake Forest, [Olivier] Sarr, being eligible is going to be a huge addition to Kentucky. Cal has done it with freshmen and has shown he can get guys to play at a high level. He gets those guys to play unselfish, but to have a big kid like that, replacing Nick Richards, who was probably the most valuable player, giving them a presence down low for those guys.... He was a big difference for their team. Sarr will help stabilize their frontline. They lost [Nate] Sestina, [Nick] Richards and [EJ] Montgomery. That was a big question mark in their offseason."
"I think LSU might be the best team in our league this year. They bring back so many pieces from last year's team. [Trendon] Watford is my preseason player of the year. Javonte Smart is back, Darius Days, who can stretch the floor. Their freshman class is really, really good. Cam Thomas is going to be awesome. When he wants to take over a game, as you know, he has the capability of doing it. I think they're the sleeper to win this thing."
"For Tennessee, it's the mixture of returning guys with [John] Fulkerson and [Yves] Pons and [Santiago] Vescovi, those three guys returning played a ton of minutes. Fulkerson and Pons have been part of a couple really good teams. They learned the winning culture from Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield and those guys. The biggest question mark would be the point guard position. Vescovi is a really talented guard, but it was difficult for him to run the point. Now he's got a year of experience under his belt. Is Jaden Springer gonna play point guard? I think Keon Johnson is gonna be a really good player. But they're both young guards, it will take some time for them to get acclimated."
"The point guard [Kentucky] got, [Devin] Askew, he's really, really good. I've seen him in person one or two times. He's got a sense of physicality and maturity level that's needed in this league. They may struggle a little early, but by the time conference play kicks in, they'll be right there in the thick of things. I don't think they'll be as good as the 2019 team with Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson and those guys, but they've got a good combination."
"Alabama has a ton of returning guys. They've had a lot of talent over the last couple of years. It hasn't produced what it should have. It's all going to hinge on [Jahvon] Quinerly this year. How his progression has been. I don't think people understand how important Kira Lewis was to their basketball team. We spent hours talking about how to stop Kira and we still couldn't do it. If Quinerly had a great offseason, they have the talent around him to be really, really good. Their biggest thing will be what strides have they made on the defensive end. They obviously could put up a ton of points, but they couldn't stop anyone."
"We know how good [Kentucky's] B.J. [Boston] is gonna be. Out of all the guys I've watched, he's definitely the most ready to contribute. His game will really translate to the SEC. When he plays with a high energy level, he's really, really good. He can impact the game in a lot of different ways. When he's making shots, he's a really, really effective player."
"I think Florida will be better. One of the things [Andrew] Nembhard and [Kerry] Blackshear kept them from doing was playing at a pace that fits them. They'll play faster. They'll be a more up-tempo team. That pace fits their team. Nembhard being a bigger point guard, Blackshear being a bigger, slower big man slowed them down. It made them a half-court team, and that didn't fit the majority of the guys they had on the floor. One thing you do have to say, coach [Mike] White's teams get better throughout the year. They should be better than they were last season."
"South Carolina and Missouri are a lot better than people give them credit for. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished ahead of Alabama or Arkansas."
"I would go with [LSU's] Trendon Watford over [Florida's] Keyontae Johnson just because I think he's the most talented guy in the league. He's just a tough matchup. I like Keyontae a lot. He's productive, he plays well with other good players. He's a perfect fit and I think he'll have a big year for sure. But Trendon Watford, the way he rebounds it, he's so big, so athletic, he's just a hard matchup. When we do scouting reports, we fear him the most. If he's improved his shooting, he becomes that much harder to guard. I think [LSU's Yves] Pons has to be in that discussion. He's probably the best defender in the league. He's so athletic, plays so hard. And I think they'll have a chance to win the league."
"Arkansas will be deeper. The freshman class they have coming in, it was perfect timing with the talent in that state, they did a good job of keeping those guys home. [Moses] Moody may have the best shot of those guys of playing early among the freshman group. Then there's the grad transfers, which Musselman has been known to [attract] since Nevada. They'll have more depth, which was part of the reason they faltered down the stretch. They had to play Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones 30-something minutes and they had to take a lot of shots. And then Joe got hurt.
"Bruce Pearl does a good job. He's a master of motivation, so I'm sure he's using [where Auburn is picked] to fuel those guys. If they're picked to finish in the bottom half or whatever, I'm not sure they will."
"South Carolina has a chance to be really good. They always play hard. They defend. They have three guys as good as any three in the league in [Jermaine] Couisnard, [AJ] Lawson and the kid from Florida [Keyshawn Bryant]."
"[Auburn's] Sharife Cooper will be given the ball and have a lot of responsibility, a lot of freedom to play. I would imagine he'll be the Freshman of the Year just given the role he'll have. [Jaylin] Williams and [Devan] Cambridge improved as the year went on, Jamal Johnson will step up. They've got enough guys that didn't play a lot, but were part of a team last year that was really good. And Bruce has proven himself as one of the best coaches in the league."
"Ole Miss should be more physical, deeper. They brought in Romello White and Dimencio Vaughn, two guys that are experienced, proven commodities. They've shown they can play. The guys that are back, are a year older. KJ Buffen could make a jump. Devontae Shuler is a senior. And they have Luis Rodriguez back, who got hurt after four games. They have more guys who can make plays off the dribble and more size and depth up front."