Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised! NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes enters Week 9 leading the position with nearly 200 points, and while it is nice to throw to Rashee Rice, Mahomes was thriving before Rice's season debut. Can anything stop the Chiefs now? Well, they just played the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. Still to come are road games against the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos and home games with the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers and Broncos. This will be a challenge.
Don't be surprised if ... New England Patriots QB Drake Maye finishes as fantasy's top QB
Not to make this all about schedule, but this unconventional take has some merit. First, Maye is already third in PPR points among quarterbacks, a smidge behind Jalen Hurts at 21.7 points per game. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen average more points, but there is some risk with them. Jackson missed a bunch of games with a hamstring injury, and fear of reinjury is real, while Allen, efficient and effective as a passer despite less volume lately, remains, as with Hurts, reliant on rushing touchdowns.
Maye has topped 20 points in four of the past five games, and five of seven contests, and yes, he has done so against some underwhelming defenses such as the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. The good part is, thanks to New England finishing last in the AFC East last season, there are more underwhelming defenses to come! This week, the Patriots play the Atlanta Falcons, a team that ranks well defensively, but just got shredded by struggling Tua Tagovailoa for four touchdown passes. Then it is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals and later, during our fantasy playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens, the Jets again and the Dolphins. These are teams that permit among the most fantasy points to QBs.
Not everything with the schedule is perfect. As with San Francisco 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey, Maye and the Patriots are on the bye in Week 14 in December, the first playoff round for many managers. That's ridiculous, of course, that the NFL has bye weeks this late, but whatever. We all must deal. Maye can't help us in Week 14, and perhaps not so much in the Bills rematch in Week 15 (he scored only 12.12 points versus Buffalo in Week 5), but the other weeks, enjoy it.
Of course, it's not just the schedule. Maye really has made great strides. He leads QBs in completion rate and touchdown percentage on throws of at least 20 yards. He is among the leaders in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards for a QB and fantasy points. It might get even better, making Maye perhaps the best bargain of the top-scoring QBs for those seeking upgrades in trades.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn't surprise:
Some of you want to look at Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams throwing nary a touchdown pass against the New Orleans Saints and Ravens the past fortnight and scream, or perhaps even move on. That would be a mistake. He faces the Bengals this week, then the New York Giants and the suddenly vulnerable Minnesota Vikings. Some might fear Williams for the fantasy playoffs, with a pair of Green Bay Packers showdowns on the slate, but the Packers -- despite Micah Parsons enjoying himself -- permit 17.2 points to quarterbacks, the 12th most. Now is not the time to punt Williams. Now is the time to invest.
Denver's Bo Nix has accounted for eight of his 18 touchdowns over the past two games, which is great, but he did so while facing the Giants and Dallas Cowboys. You know where I'm headed with this one. Nix remains inconsistent, and he will likely disappoint many this week in a road game against Houston, by far the stingiest team for QBs to accrue fantasy points against. Nix still has a pair of games with the Chiefs remaining, too. I think he's more streamer than someone one must keep around during his Week 12 bye.
We must be concerned about Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels making it through this season in one piece. Much of his value comes from his running ability, but he has already missed games with separate leg injuries (knee, hamstring) and it sure looks as if the team can't protect any QB properly. The final four games are within the NFC East, but do the Commanders risk playing a compromised Daniels if they are 5-8 or 4-9 by then? They might not. Have a second QB rostered -- and not Marcus Mariota -- just in case.
Don't be surprised if ... Javonte Williams finishes second in rushing touchdowns
No, I did not expect I would ever be typing those words, but despite how the Dallas offense looked this past week in Denver, this remains a prolific group, and not just the Dak Prescott-led passing game. Williams has been held in check in two of the past three games, rushing for only 29 yards against the Carolina Panthers and 41 yards vs. the Broncos, but when the team gets near the goal line, he is the featured player.
Williams already boasts eight rushing scores, doubling his previous career high. He isn't catching MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, but Josh Jacobs, with one more rushing score, is in play. Williams is ahead of James Cook and Derrick Henry. Nobody thought Williams would be mentioned with these players, including me, who ranked him poorly in August. However, there are some "Josh Jacobs 2024" vibes, when he scored 16 touchdowns. Williams is pacing in this direction.
Mike Clay explains why Alvin Kamara's decreased fantasy production this season barely makes him a top-20 running back in Week 9.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn't surprise:
The NFL trade deadline is next Tuesday, Nov. 4, at 4 p.m. ET, and while you, the fantasy manager, might not care so much since your ESPN trading deadline is far later in November (Wednesday, Nov. 26, noon ET) and we know you will wait until that morning to make offers (don't wait!), this day might matter quite a bit. Why not get ahead of it in case a key player is moved? Perhaps the Saints QB change to rookie Tyler Shough ignites RB Alvin Kamara, but probably not. While Kamara is fourth among running backs with 27 catches, he is 16th in receiving yards for the position, and with nary a touchdown grab. These catches go nowhere. Kamara has scored single-digit PPR points in four of six games. Put him on a contender and we might have an RB1. Keep him on the Saints and we might not even have a strong flex option.
I do agree that Giants sophomore Tyrone Tracy Jr. needs to be the top free agent pickup this week, and he should be close to universally rostered, but were we really all that impressed with him last season? Could this be a timeshare with the equally average Devin Singletary and neither of them produces much fantasy value? Think Seattle Seahawks RBs, but not nearly as productive. It might be like Titans RBs. What a shame. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart shouldn't have to lead the Giants in rushing yards this season, but that remains in play.
I moved Panthers RB Rico Dowdle up in my Week 9 and rest-of-season rankings before the Panthers admitted on Monday that perhaps a timeshare is foolish, because it is quite clear that a timeshare with Chuba Hubbard is exactly that. OK, so the Panthers aren't winning the Super Bowl, and they want to be loyal to Hubbard, who signed a long-term deal, but c'mon. I can't be so bold as to predict Dowdle will be an RB1 from here on out, because we don't even know whether there is room for Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry to be among that crew, but I surely have been thinking about it.
Don't be surprised if ... Oronde Gadsden II threatens to lead Chargers' flex options in PPR points
Much can go wrong with this prediction, but QB Justin Herbert seems to love throwing passes to this rookie. It's one thing to make veteran WR Quentin Johnston irrelevant, which the fifth-round pick has done with his 22 targets in three weeks, many while he is open downfield. Johnston was "that guy" in September. Gadsden ranks third among qualified tight ends at 14.3 yards per reception (Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid), but that's misleading, because Gadsden's past three games have been so impressive (59.9 PPR points). Johnston is an afterthought in this offense. It doesn't mean he won't make a big play this week or have a few big games, but rostering Gadsden over Johnston is the move.
Why stop there? WR Keenan Allen averages 15 PPR points per game, but he has been held to fewer than 11 PPR points in four of five contests. It's a trend, and not a positive one. WR Ladd McConkey has been a WR1 option over the past four games, but he scored touchdowns in three of them. We can depend on targets and catches, but not touchdowns. RB Kimani Vidal has been awesome lately, since the Omarion Hampton injury, but Hampton might return in mid-November, too.
OK, so a reasonable person would expect McConkey to lead the Chargers in flex-eligible scoring, but Gadsden looks mighty legitimate and a top-10 TE, too.
Daniel Dopp examines Oronde Gadsden II's hot play recently and what it means for fantasy.
Other receiving thoughts that shouldn't surprise:
I would not assume Falcons WR Drake London (hip) is a safe WR2 anymore, so be wary in trades. That might be shocking considering everyone's August investment, but London has scored 56.8 of his 94.9 PPR points this season in two games against the Commanders and Bills, and he has done little in the other four games. He missed Week 8 against the Dolphins (as did QB Michael Penix Jr.), and the Falcons fell apart. London had 100 receptions for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns last season, mostly with Kirk Cousins at QB. He's not repeating those stats. A season similar to 2023 might be in play.
It makes no sense for the Titans to keep WR Calvin Ridley (hamstring) around, even if they get little for him in trade next week. Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor are rookies, just like QB Cam Ward, but not highly touted ones from draft day. In fact, these receivers went on Day 3. Whatever, perhaps they can all grow together, but it is hard to see how a veteran like Ridley with three 1,000-yard seasons to his credit fits in anymore. Keep Ridley rostered on the assumption he plays with a better, playoff-bound QB by next week, but roster Dike first in deeper formats.
Nobody is losing their fantasy league because they invested a top-100 pick in disappointing Browns WR Jerry Jeudy, but he needs to be elsewhere, too. I dropped Jeudy last week, largely confident the move wouldn't burn me in Week 8 against the Patriots. Jeudy didn't catch either of his two targets. QB Dillon Gabriel isn't playing well, and doesn't fit with Jeudy's strengths, but still, what a disaster, with 6 PPR points per game. The only Browns pass catchers worth rostering are the tight ends, and David Njoku should be elsewhere, too, because Harold Fannin Jr. is better.
Finally, Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers requested a trade before the season, and he hasn't helped his cause much in two months. This was a 1,000-yard receiver last season with awful quarterback play. They have awful quarterback play again this season. Meyers would look better on the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buccaneers, Patriots, Arizona Cardinals and perhaps even the Giants.